YouGov-Fifty Acres: Labor 35, Coalition 34, Greens 11, One Nation 9

Gains for Labor in the latest YouGov poll, as private polling records solid support for One Nation in the Hunter region.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for FiftyAcres is more conventional than its previous efforts in that the major parties’ share of the primary vote has increased, with Labor gaining three points to 35% without biting into the Coalition’s 34%. Of the others, the Greens are down a point to 11%, One Nation is steady on 9%, the Nick Xenophon Team is down one to 3%, “Christian parties” are steady on 3%, Katter’s Australian Party is steady on 1%, and others are down two to 3%. Despite Labor’s improvement on the primary vote, two-party preferred is unchanged at 50-50 due to weaker respondent-allocated preference flows to Labor, of 67% from Greens voters, 22% from One Nation voters and 50% from the rest. With preference flows more like last year’s election, at which Labor got 82% of Greens preferences and 49% of everybody else’s, Labor would lead 54-46.

Also in the poll:

• Malcolm Turnbull has a 37-29 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, compared with 34-27 last time. A high “not sure” result has been a feature of the pollster’s form in this area.

• Head-to-head questions on leadership attributes found Bill Shorten leading Malcolm Turnbull 30-17 for being in touch with the concerns of ordinary Australians; Turnbull leading 28-20 on being a strong leader; and Shorten leading 24-22 on sticking to what he believes in. For a lot more of this sort of thing, I had a paywalled article on Crikey which placed the detailed leadership attributes polling of Essential Research into broader perspective.

• Support for same-sex marriage was at at 59%, with 33% opposed. Eighty per cent rated themselves likely participants in the postal survey compared with 13% for unlikely, but there are no breakdowns for the yes and no camps.

• Sixty-six per cent favoured the proposition that “Australia should move towards more alternative energy source (e.g. wind or solar)” over an alternative, that “Australia should continue to use coal-fired power stations”.

• Forty-three per cent of respondents thought it likely a country would be attacked with a nuclear weapon during their lifetime, compared with 44% for unlikely.


• Progressive think thank the Australia Institute has polled the Hunter region seats of Hunter and Shortland, to gauge the impact of AGL’s decision to close the locally situated Liddell coal-fired power station. On two-party preferred, Labor holds respective leads of 60-40 and 58-42, which compare with 62.5-37.5 and 59.9-40.1 at the last election. The other story is that the primary votes show the One Nation well into double digits in both seats. After including results of the follow-up prompt for the undecided, primary votes in Hunter are Labor 44.1% (51.8% at the election), Nationals 21.9% (26.3%), Greens 7.3% (7.1%) and One Nation 15.8%. In Shortland, the results are Labor 44.8% (51.2%), Liberal 26.5% (35.2%), Greens 7.8% (9.5%) and One Nation 14.3%. Despite everything, the poll finds more support than oppose AGL’s decision, and that renewables are heavily favoured over coal. The polls were conducted by ReachTEL on Friday and Saturday nights, from respective samples of 714 and 643. Full results from GhostWhoVotes.

Sky News reports that polling conducted by the “no” campaign has support for yes down over the first ten days of the campaign from 67% to 60%, although there’s no insight into how this was conducted or by whom.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,776 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: Labor 35, Coalition 34, Greens 11, One Nation 9”

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  1. cud chewer

    In the end the noisy minority may try to claim all that didn’t vote as GG is; but that is not the way it works; the place is ran by those that show up.

  2. If Labor only gets 67 per cent of Green preferences against the COALition you can cut off my legs and call me shorty. Ditto labor only getting 22 per cent of Onanist Nation preferences. Doesn’t that point to something seriously wrong about You-Gov’s allocation of preferences (the form of the question they’re asking?)

  3. Good Morning. So Yougov has gone towards Labor. Thats bad news for the LNP. Confirms suspicions about the Essential poll being rounding .

    On the ME campaign. Remember some facts. The youth are engaged they are going to vote. You just have to look at social media which is their forum more than others and its clear. They are engaged they are voting.

    They did enrol to vote in large numbers despite the doubt commentators and polls were giving us.
    If there is complacency I suspect its from the No side. I have not seen many posting no shots on social media.

    As there are activist no campaigners on the no side that is a telling clue as to voter intentions.
    We know that we have polls telling us that numbers voting are falling. We also have polls telling us that of those likely to vote they are the yes people.

    I have seen nothing that indicates to me that is going to change. Remembering the last push for getting voters out to vote comes in the last few days and this is the weak period for getting out the vote.

  4. Trump Humiliates Himself In Front Of The World With A Deranged Campaign Speech At The UN

    Trump opened his mouth to speak to the world, and what came out was a humiliating attempt to justify his failed presidency

    Trump’s compulsion to justify his failed presidency in front of the entire world with campaign language was both pathetic and humiliating. The President Of The United States should not be so weak and insecure that he feels the need to boast about things that the rest of the world doesn’t care about to prove that he deserves a seat at the grown-up table.

    Donald Trump is an embarrassment, and every time he speaks to the world he damages America and the presidency.

  5. Trump Goes Insane At The UN And Calls N. Korea’s Kim Jung Un Rocket Man

    Trump went completely out of his mind at the UN and threatened to destroy North Korea while calling Kim Jung Un rocket man.

    Trump said, “If the US is forced to defend itself or its allies, we will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea. Rocket Man is on a suicide mission for himself and his regime.”

    The President crossed the line at his speech from unpresidential behavior to flat out crazy. The entire world is at risk because Trump is insisting on playing a game of back page tabloid chicken with a regime that could launch a missile strike in minutes and trigger a war on the Korean Peninsula.

  6. The Reaction Of Chief Of Staff John Kelly To Trump’s UN Speech Disaster

    Trump’s Chief of Staff John Kelly was captured with his head in his hands, as he listened to the President threaten to totally destroy 25 million people.

    Trump’s speech with a threat to totally destroy North Korea and the decision to call Kim Jung Un “rocket man” was a humiliating disaster, but as Gen. Kelly knows threatening war comes with potentially grave consequences. Remember all of those stories about how Kelly was getting Trump under control and bringing order to the White House? Watch Trump’s speech, and look at Kelly’s reaction. It is clear who is winning the fight between order and chaos, and it isn’t the Chief of Staff.

  7. HRC: As @UN General Assembly convenes today, @HRC celebrates UN’s role in advancing & protecting #LGBTQ people #UNGA 1/14…

    HRC: @UN The @UN has helped foster stability around the world since its establishment after WWII, including protections for #LGBTQ communities. 2/14

    HRC: @UN In 2011 @UNHumanRights passed resolution on human rights, sexual orientation & gender identity & expressed concern over #LGBTQ violence 3/14

    HRC: @UN @UNHumanRights In 2012, #UNGA passed resolution on extrajudicial killings, including crimes based on sexual orientation, gender identity 4/14

  8. Trump using campaign, RNC funds to pay legal bills from Russia probe

    U.S. President Donald Trump is using money donated to his reelection campaign and the Republican National Committee to pay for his lawyers in the probe of alleged Russian interference in the U.S. election, according to two people familiar with the matter.

    While previous presidential campaigns have used these funds to pay for routine legal matters such as ballot access disputes and compliance requirements, Trump would be the first U.S. president in the modern campaign finance era to use such funds to cover the costs of responding to a criminal probe, said election law experts.

  9. ‘The f*ck is wrong with you’: Internet can’t believe Trump called Kim Jong Un ‘Rocket Man’ at UN speech

    Many internet users felt embarrassed by Trump’s childish antics on the world stage, and they simply shook their heads in disbelief that the purported leader of the free world threw out grade school-style taunts during an address to the international community.

  10. HRC: @UN @UNHumanRights July 2013: @UN High Commissioner for Human Rights launched UN @Free_Equal Campaign to promote understanding of #LGBTQ rights. #UNGA 5/14

    HRC: @UN @UNHumanRights @free_equal In August 2015, the @UN Security Council held its first-ever meeting to address human rights of #LGBTQ people under ISIS. #UNGA 6/14

    HRC: @UN @UNHumanRights @free_equal The UN @refugees agency plays a critical role in assisting #LGBTQ people & asylum seekers fleeing violence & persecution. #UNGA 7/14

    HRC: @UN @UNHumanRights @free_equal @Refugees When @UN released Sustainable Development Goals, nations committed to interpreting language ensuring #LGBTQ people weren’t left behind. 8/14

  11. Where is Rudy? He’s not the only Trumpster who’s disappeared from TV after the Russia subpoenas dropped

    One unintended consequence of the investigation into the Russia scandal has been a sudden disappearance of certain loyalists to President Donald Trump. This time last year, Trumpsters practically camped out at cable news outlets begging for time to spin one thing or another.

  12. cud chewer
    From last night

    Well this is nice. Its 1:30am. I refresh my browser and now the latest comment is back from 7:09pm
    Gawd the coding on this site is so embarrassingly bad.

    Same here. Unless you continually refresh all evening, there is no stability at all. It jumps around and changes direction. Impossible to follow. I gave up.

  13. HRC: @UN @UNHumanRights @free_equal @Refugees In Sept 2016, the @UN appointed Vitit Muntarbhorn to serve as first-ever Independent Expert on Sexual Orientation & Gender Identity. 9/14

    HRC: @UN @UNHumanRights @free_equal @Refugees He’s worked to reduce violence & discrimination against #LGBTQ people & sought to improve their situation in @UN member states. #UNGA 10/14

    HRC: @UN @UNHumanRights @free_equal @Refugees In July 2017, @UNHumanRights office criticized Trump’s proposed ban on #transgender people serving in the military. #UNGA 12/14

  14. MMFlint: Trump’s UN speech, shortened: “We got the world’s biggest war machine. What we don’t use on N. Korea, we will parade down Pennsylvania Ave!”

  15. HRC: @UN @UNHumanRights @free_equal @Refugees Throughout his tenure, @UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon consistently used his platform to advocate for equality. #UNGA 13/14

    HRC: @UN @UNHumanRights @free_equal @Refugees .@HRC will continue monitoring the @UN and working with member states & coalition allies to protect human rights of all people. #UNGA 14/14

  16. BK did you see my post last night (11:53pm) analysing the Essential results on SSM?

    I came up with an early 60s yes result, late 50s worst case.

  17. lizzie thanks for commenting on that. It got to the point where I wasn’t getting posts that I knew existed, even after refreshing several times.

  18. Asked whether he would support an attempt by Mr Turnbull to legislate for a clean-energy target, Mr Abbott replied: “It would be unconscionable, I underline that word unconscionable, for a government that was originally elected promising to abolish the carbon tax and end Labor’s climate change obsessions to go further down the renewables path,” he said.

    Since the “carbon tax” was invented by Abbott and Peta, one wonders how far down the avenue of self-deception Tony has wandered.

  19. cud chewer

    I often read PB when I can’t sleep, but last night, seeing the repetition of some disagreeable posts out of order and continuously, I gave up. I’m using Chrome on a mobile.

  20. Lizzie

    Yes. US experience has damaged Hillsong badly in opposing ME. So at least lessons learnt. While not supporting ME by that statement they are bowing out of the debate. So progress from a conservative source.

  21. Abbott has absolutely no shame, campaigning again over a ‘carbon tax’.

    But then we knew that.

    He says he will ‘cross the floor’, but where to?

    Either Turnbull puts up a somewhat useful CET, and Labor votes for it, or they put up a crippled version , Labor opposes it, giving the right everything they want, and he will still cross the floor?

  22. The Cathy Wilcox‏ @cathywilcox1 · 11h11 hours ago

    I reckon we should have a plebiscite about whether women should get equal pay, and see how traditionalists spin the No case.

  23. JR

    Abbott knows Turnbull is not going to change his position. So Abbott will appear to be making Turnbull cave. Of course Turnbull has not changed his position. He will stick with the one he signed up to with the Nationals.

  24. Tony Abbott probably speaks for a large portion of the Right of his party. What the Right wants, the Right gets. We now know that the Coalition is utterly incapable of addressing either energy policy or action on climate change*. Under this Government, both are a complete dog’s breakfast. Anyone who wants progress on these critical issues shouldn’t vote for the Coalition.

    * we already did

  25. Morning all


    Surely we are getting close to Trump being totally neutered!
    Judging by reports, Mueller is close. Wish they would hurry up already!

  26. JoshButler: Turnbull confirms 54 people from Nauru & Manus will be resettled in USA

    As of July 31 there were 1162 there – 54 people is 4% of the total

  27. Lizzie

    Equal Marriage Rights

    Why do you exclude Scotland from the YES side?

    Identified by Gay Activists as the most LGBTI friendly nation in Europe!!!!

  28. Good point Guytar, everyone knows Turnbull will cave Abbott just wants to take the credit.
    Re the 54 asylum seekers, could they be people with some family link to people already in the USA?

  29. victoria

    Morning all


    Surely we are getting close to Trump being totally neutered!

    Judging by reports, Mueller is close. Wish they would hurry up already!


    Fingers crossed, Victoria !

    It has been said it may well turn out to be the biggest network of ‘crime’ ever

    The Washington Post has keep a running graphic and date by date history of Trumps Russian connections – it is just staggering in its complexity and number of people and links

    Here’s what we know so far about Team Trump’s ties to Russian interests

    ………and that is what is known publically – and not what Mueller and Schniderman know !!!

  30. TOM IN OZ‏ @SirThomasWynne · 13m13 minutes ago


    VIDEO: 2 years of Turnbull in 90 seconds.


  31. guytaur

    A pretty ignorant “meme creator” 🙂

    I not “meme creators” also equates America with the USoA!! To the great frustration of my South American friends! 🙂

  32. detispify: More of flaccid @TurnbullMalcolm’s specifically encouraged and endorsed ‘respectful debate’. This is all on you, prime minister. #auspol

  33. PhoenixRed

    But what is obvious us why Rex Tillerson, Wilbur Smith and Betty DeVos became part of the cabinet. As the saying goes, just follow the money

  34. Crikey

    Channeling Abbott, Queensland LNP leader Tim Nicholls has promised to move funds from renewables towards a new, privately owned coal-fired power station. Also channeling Abbott, Turnbull told a Brisbane radio station yesterday that he would support any move by Nicholls with funds from the Northern Australia Infrastructure Fund.

    Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk responded by saying that if there was room for another private coal-fired station, the market would have delivered one. Her federal counterpart Bill Shorten continues to push the government on gas, with his campaign to have exporters release more supply to the domestic market set to ramp-up today.

    NAIF just a barrel of pork for the LNP?

  35. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    President Donald Trump has said the United States will be forced to “totally destroy” North Korea unless Pyongyang backs down from its nuclear challenge, mocking North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as a “rocket man” on a suicide mission. That’s reassuring!
    Not much kumbayah at THIS NSW Greens meeting!
    Abbott has threatened to cross the floor of Parliament and vote against any move to introduce a clean-energy target, describing as “unconscionable” any move to wind back support for coal in favour of renewables. This man is poison!
    The emphatic message from Tuesday’s creditor meeting for former Network Ten executive chairman, Lachlan Murdoch, was that his former employees at the broadcaster didn’t want him back.
    Michael Kirby’s brother, another judge, has written a good piece on why we should vote YES in the survey.
    Mark Kenny reports that Turnbull has declared a “no” vote in the same-sex marriage postal survey would see the Coalition rule it out of parliamentary consideration for both this term and the next, were he to win the 2019 election.
    Gladys Berejiklian has come out strongly in favour of support for same-sex marriage, describing it as one of the most important human rights issues “of our time”.
    Nichols Stuart tells us that Defence and navy junk another chance to build a successful ship industry.
    This SMH editorial looks at what would happen as the Sydney housing market boom comes to an end.

  36. Section 2 . . .

    Ross Gittins writes that when they look at the economy that older generations are leaving for them, young Australians have a lot to be angry about. Some of their fears and resentments are misplaced, but most aren’t.
    Viewers of 7:30 were singularly unimpressed with the “creepy” Roger Corbett interview.
    Labor will step up pressure on the Turnbull government to increase transparency in the gas market to help manufacturers facing rising prices and tight supply, ahead of a public intervention by Australia’s competition watchdog on energy.
    Bastards like this think they are above the law!
    The former senior public servant (from the Planning department of all places!) who Matthew Guy took to a private penthouse lunch with two developers was not told he was attending a $10,000 Liberal fundraiser.
    A young environmentalist – in a Steven Bradbury performance – has become Deputy Lord Mayor of Sydney.
    The chairman of the National Mental Health Commission, Allan Fels, has warned that the National Disability Insurance Agency (NDIA) lacks the resourcing to properly consider claims for psychosocial disability, potentially putting its rollout targets in jeopardy.
    Yet another court battle loss for Clive Palmer. Google.
    Mark Kenny gets stuck into Abbott’s efforts to forestall modernity.
    David Marr shows how free speech has won every round in the SSM debate.

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