YouGov-Fifty Acres: Labor 35, Coalition 34, Greens 11, One Nation 9

Gains for Labor in the latest YouGov poll, as private polling records solid support for One Nation in the Hunter region.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for FiftyAcres is more conventional than its previous efforts in that the major parties’ share of the primary vote has increased, with Labor gaining three points to 35% without biting into the Coalition’s 34%. Of the others, the Greens are down a point to 11%, One Nation is steady on 9%, the Nick Xenophon Team is down one to 3%, “Christian parties” are steady on 3%, Katter’s Australian Party is steady on 1%, and others are down two to 3%. Despite Labor’s improvement on the primary vote, two-party preferred is unchanged at 50-50 due to weaker respondent-allocated preference flows to Labor, of 67% from Greens voters, 22% from One Nation voters and 50% from the rest. With preference flows more like last year’s election, at which Labor got 82% of Greens preferences and 49% of everybody else’s, Labor would lead 54-46.

Also in the poll:

• Malcolm Turnbull has a 37-29 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, compared with 34-27 last time. A high “not sure” result has been a feature of the pollster’s form in this area.

• Head-to-head questions on leadership attributes found Bill Shorten leading Malcolm Turnbull 30-17 for being in touch with the concerns of ordinary Australians; Turnbull leading 28-20 on being a strong leader; and Shorten leading 24-22 on sticking to what he believes in. For a lot more of this sort of thing, I had a paywalled article on Crikey which placed the detailed leadership attributes polling of Essential Research into broader perspective.

• Support for same-sex marriage was at at 59%, with 33% opposed. Eighty per cent rated themselves likely participants in the postal survey compared with 13% for unlikely, but there are no breakdowns for the yes and no camps.

• Sixty-six per cent favoured the proposition that “Australia should move towards more alternative energy source (e.g. wind or solar)” over an alternative, that “Australia should continue to use coal-fired power stations”.

• Forty-three per cent of respondents thought it likely a country would be attacked with a nuclear weapon during their lifetime, compared with 44% for unlikely.

Elsewhere:

• Progressive think thank the Australia Institute has polled the Hunter region seats of Hunter and Shortland, to gauge the impact of AGL’s decision to close the locally situated Liddell coal-fired power station. On two-party preferred, Labor holds respective leads of 60-40 and 58-42, which compare with 62.5-37.5 and 59.9-40.1 at the last election. The other story is that the primary votes show the One Nation well into double digits in both seats. After including results of the follow-up prompt for the undecided, primary votes in Hunter are Labor 44.1% (51.8% at the election), Nationals 21.9% (26.3%), Greens 7.3% (7.1%) and One Nation 15.8%. In Shortland, the results are Labor 44.8% (51.2%), Liberal 26.5% (35.2%), Greens 7.8% (9.5%) and One Nation 14.3%. Despite everything, the poll finds more support than oppose AGL’s decision, and that renewables are heavily favoured over coal. The polls were conducted by ReachTEL on Friday and Saturday nights, from respective samples of 714 and 643. Full results from GhostWhoVotes.

• Sky News reports that polling conducted by the “no” campaign has support for yes down over the first ten days of the campaign from 67% to 60%, although there’s no insight into how this was conducted or by whom.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,776 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: Labor 35, Coalition 34, Greens 11, One Nation 9”

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  1. The trouble (for LNPers) is thst I don’t think the public really like Turnbull any more. He might lead in PPM but his satisfaction is low and his other problem is he looks like a weak leader of a divided team in comparison to the other side. I think those will be a liability in any election campaign and I’d expect Shorten to wipe the floor with him in any debate this time around as the public will have no more patience with the “real Turnbull is waiting just over the horizon” shtick. Plus the election may well be much sooner than expected given the state of play at the moment.

  3. Puffy, The Magic Dragon. @ #1747 Saturday, September 23rd, 2017 – 12:12 am

    Steelydan is perplexed by lefties, there are not enough synapses to accommodate the new information and way of thinking. Lefties understand righties, as there is not a lot to deal with, and it is quite straightforward.

    I’d ague quite strongly that right-leaning voters and right-leaning pollies are two different breeds, and that you are conflating your understanding of the pollies’ motivations with that of the voters’.

    For example, the right are much more effective at using the tools of marketing, cant and sloganeering than (most of) the left, as evidenced by their success at regularly having large portions of the population vote against their own interests. There is quite a bit of science behind this, but many on the disorganised part of the left refuse to engage with it. I would hazard a guess that it seems to sully their self-image of relying on rational debate alone to win political battles. Thankfully, the current leadership of the ALP do appear to have taken these methods on board.

  4. shift

    I think the ‘liking’ thing is greatly over stated.

    I don’t like my local member but I still vote for him on the basis that the party he belongs to is more likely to vote for things I think are right.

    ‘Liking’ Turnbull on this basis is a little difficult when every time a decision is needed he declares himself ‘agnostic’ on the actual basics of the matter and flips and flops until people get tired of waiting for an actual outcome.

    The only outcome he is interested in is having one more day when he can remain as PM.

  5. the ALP is where it’s at in the polls because the Libs ousted a leader and continued in fighting

    You mean this has nothing to do with the fact that the Labor has a bunch of sensible policies and the Liberals showed what a bunch of nasty, selfish ideologues they are in the 2014 budget and haven’t actually demonstrated any good governance since?

  8. shiftaling I doubt you will find a serious commentator that does not think that the Libs are in with a chance if they can get some clean air for a sustained period, and this is nearly due in large part to Shorten being so unpopular. And as much as you may dislike Turnbull no one is wiping the floor with him in a debate he is as smart as they come and so is Shorten. The debates will be the same as they have been since I can remember with no clear winner.

  9. LU – The ‘fruit’ of a google search on the current situation in Hawija !

    (Iraqi Govt forces advancing with lots of coordinated artillery and armor support at the moment which is not, for me, able to be easily connected to a KKK group that meets in “Tyron’s mothers basement”)

  11. “The Bradbury technique has worked a treat so far but the Australian people just don’t like your leader’

    HeySteelydil, how about Shorten and daH Truffle do a town hall, where they take questions without notice from the great unwashed?

    Ahhhhh, they have havent they and the Trembling Truffle didn’t liek it did he?

  12. “can get some clean air for a sustained period”

    But to get that they have to stapp fwarking up on a weekly basis. Seems to be a big ask on current performance.

  13. Well chewer as for “nasty, selfish ideologues” I would argue that just scrolling through this blog you would find that your side has more than your fair share, both sides have them.

  14. Steely whatever the character flaws of the people on this blog, they aren’t running the country and until you can engage on a discussion about policy detail I won’t have much interest in talking to you.

  15. Steelydan
    Usually I do not consider leaderdhip polls that important but the Australian people just don’t like the bloke, the ALP is where it’s at in the polls because the Libs ousted a leader and continued in fighting, and not much more. The ALP can take bugger all credit for the polls.

    The reason the “Libs ousted a leader” is because they knew he couldn’t win. Round 1 to Shorten.

  16. Steelydan
    shiftaling I doubt you will find a serious commentator that does not think that the Libs are in with a chance if they can get some clean air for a sustained period, and this is nearly due in large part to Shorten being so unpopular. And as much as you may dislike Turnbull no one is wiping the floor with him in a debate he is as smart as they come and so is Shorten. The debates will be the same as they have been since I can remember with no clear winner.

    You obviously can’t read polls. Shorten is wiping the floor with Turnbull. If you can tell me what Turnbull stands for then good luck to your imagination.

    Turnbull is a thug. He told Peter King to “Fuck off and get out of my way” and said the same to Abbott but updated it with the “C” word. Same with Rudd when he thought Godwin Gretch was a good bet.

  18. cc

    A good effort by van Onselen to identify the crap arguments being run by the ‘No’ proponents because they don’t have much justifiable reason to oppose other than saying the minority should be denied the ‘privilege’ of being formally married.

  19. Steelydan turning up here is usually an indicator that some one in the ‘broad church’ has ended the day by looking like a ‘dickhead’.

    In this case ‘Tones’ by claiming he was assaulted because of his position on SSM.

  23. CTar1
    Both Jimmy Kimmel and John McCain will major factors in the likely defeat of this bill.
    Kimmel has a large non political audience including Trump voters.
    Every time the GOP try this crap they go one step forward and two back.
    Voter awareness of the health issue is increasing all the time, including commentators with main stream media such as MSNBC noting that it’s all about the money and GOP politics, and has nothing to do with health policy.

  25. Trog

    Voter awareness of the health issue is increasing all the time

    The fact that the US is the only OECD rated ‘advanced economy’ now appears to have penetrated the minds of a good number of US voters.

    Numbers of Republicans in the Congress realise that their party stance that people are on their own if they need medical care is very risky for them.

    The idea that some level of universal health care is something that a government should provide won’t be easily dismissed.

    It’s a ‘genie out of the bottle’ thing for conservative politicians.

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