German election discussion thread

A thread for discussion of tomorrow’s parliamentary elections in Germany, where Angela Merkel’s conservatives look to be cruising to a fourth term.

Germany goes to the polls tomorrow, with all the polling evidence suggesting that the only point at issue is exactly what form Angela Merkel’s new government will take. Her Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union has persistently maintained a huge lead over the Social Democratic Party since a brief honeymoon for the latter’s leader, Martin Schulz, fizzled out earlier this year. The minor players should continue to include the Greens, the hard left Die Linke, the free-market liberal Free Democratic Party – and Germany’s relatively modest contribution to anti-immigration populist politics wave, Alternative für Deutschland. Beyond that I don’t have much to offer, but here’s a thread for discussion.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

14 comments on “German election discussion thread”

  1. I know bugger all about German politics but I’ve just read that the SDP and Greens are more in favour of further integration into the Eurozone/EU than Merkels’ CDU and it’s associated state parties are.

    For some reason this surprises me.

  2. The Bundestag could grow quite large because of the peculiarities of the electoral system.

    It is an MMP meets 16 state federalism issue. Not an issue in New Zealand as the have a single list (although it might be much of an issue if they had Maori and general lists). If Australia was to adopt German-style federal MMP, there could be similar issues but it would be tricky to introduce because the required referendum would require majorities in all states.

  3. The Germans have a history of variable Parliament sizes, depending of the result. The Weimar electoral system was a numerically fixed quota proportional representation system (x,000 votes is the quota, however many voters turnout), unlike normal quota systems which have/had fixed proportion quotas (where the quota is a set proportion of the vote, however many voters turn out), so the size varied according to turnout (it was bigger in more turbulent times).

  4. Results as predicted
    Shulz says SDP won’t reenter grand coalition which leaves Jamaica as the only realistic option.
    An interesting government ahead

  5. The Greens & the FDP will most likely mean a more progressive Germany, and it won’t impede the move to renewables at all, in contrast to the Tony Abbott Liberals in Australia.

  6. From a graphic at DW, Greens + The Left coalition with the CDU would also give a 25 seat majority to Merkel.
    However, i am not sure of the political vibes between each of these parties so will watch with interest to see what comes out of the horse trading.
    I have family in Germany so it has more than a passing interest to me.

  7. The Left is largely the remnant of the East German SED. At the last election the SDPand Gruen both rejected the thought of a coalition with them.
    The chances of Merkle choosing the Left over the FDP as a coalition partner are ZERO

  8. While the FDP claim to be small l liberal they have evolved into a libertarian and free market organisation. While a Jamaica has worked in some states there will be significant conflict between gruen and FDP.
    Merkel has been weakenedby this and has already asked Shultz to reconsider.

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