YouGov-Fifty Acres: Labor 35, Coalition 34, Greens 11, One Nation 9

Gains for Labor in the latest YouGov poll, as private polling records solid support for One Nation in the Hunter region.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for FiftyAcres is more conventional than its previous efforts in that the major parties’ share of the primary vote has increased, with Labor gaining three points to 35% without biting into the Coalition’s 34%. Of the others, the Greens are down a point to 11%, One Nation is steady on 9%, the Nick Xenophon Team is down one to 3%, “Christian parties” are steady on 3%, Katter’s Australian Party is steady on 1%, and others are down two to 3%. Despite Labor’s improvement on the primary vote, two-party preferred is unchanged at 50-50 due to weaker respondent-allocated preference flows to Labor, of 67% from Greens voters, 22% from One Nation voters and 50% from the rest. With preference flows more like last year’s election, at which Labor got 82% of Greens preferences and 49% of everybody else’s, Labor would lead 54-46.

Also in the poll:

• Malcolm Turnbull has a 37-29 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, compared with 34-27 last time. A high “not sure” result has been a feature of the pollster’s form in this area.

• Head-to-head questions on leadership attributes found Bill Shorten leading Malcolm Turnbull 30-17 for being in touch with the concerns of ordinary Australians; Turnbull leading 28-20 on being a strong leader; and Shorten leading 24-22 on sticking to what he believes in. For a lot more of this sort of thing, I had a paywalled article on Crikey which placed the detailed leadership attributes polling of Essential Research into broader perspective.

• Support for same-sex marriage was at at 59%, with 33% opposed. Eighty per cent rated themselves likely participants in the postal survey compared with 13% for unlikely, but there are no breakdowns for the yes and no camps.

• Sixty-six per cent favoured the proposition that “Australia should move towards more alternative energy source (e.g. wind or solar)” over an alternative, that “Australia should continue to use coal-fired power stations”.

• Forty-three per cent of respondents thought it likely a country would be attacked with a nuclear weapon during their lifetime, compared with 44% for unlikely.

Elsewhere:

• Progressive think thank the Australia Institute has polled the Hunter region seats of Hunter and Shortland, to gauge the impact of AGL’s decision to close the locally situated Liddell coal-fired power station. On two-party preferred, Labor holds respective leads of 60-40 and 58-42, which compare with 62.5-37.5 and 59.9-40.1 at the last election. The other story is that the primary votes show the One Nation well into double digits in both seats. After including results of the follow-up prompt for the undecided, primary votes in Hunter are Labor 44.1% (51.8% at the election), Nationals 21.9% (26.3%), Greens 7.3% (7.1%) and One Nation 15.8%. In Shortland, the results are Labor 44.8% (51.2%), Liberal 26.5% (35.2%), Greens 7.8% (9.5%) and One Nation 14.3%. Despite everything, the poll finds more support than oppose AGL’s decision, and that renewables are heavily favoured over coal. The polls were conducted by ReachTEL on Friday and Saturday nights, from respective samples of 714 and 643. Full results from GhostWhoVotes.

• Sky News reports that polling conducted by the “no” campaign has support for yes down over the first ten days of the campaign from 67% to 60%, although there’s no insight into how this was conducted or by whom.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,776 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: Labor 35, Coalition 34, Greens 11, One Nation 9”

Comments Page 34 of 36
1 … 33 34 35 36

  1. Swamprat.

    I have only limited optimism that even with a yes vote this current government will pass a SSM bill.

    But Labor didn’t lose that battle. I’m not sure what ‘delegitimisation’ of the survey means, but if it’s trying to set it up so the results don’t matter: well, that’s enormously risky to attempt. Labor will not successfully run that interpretation post survey results, nor will the Yes campaign.

    The rhetorical importance of a large yes vote in this unscientific survey is mightily important.

    Small turnout with any yes majority: interpretation: its unimportant to most people.

    Small turnout with no vote: interpretation: no one wants it.

    Largeish turnout with yes vote: who knows what will happen, but it removes the ‘will of the people’ for needing to have their say. Labor WILL do it if they win govt.

    The survey is happening. That battle is lost. THIS is the battle now.

    Try reading Saul Alinsky “Rules for Radicals” (1971) for a view on the war vs the battle on social activism.

    Sorry for rant. I’m a grumpy old gay man.

  4. Wombat:

    Thanks for that. I totally agree that the battle now needs to be delivering a strong Yes vote in the postal survey. Yes, the postal survey a ridiculous WOFTAM, yes it’s true that it isn’t binding in any way shape or form, but the message a strong Yes vote sends through the survey results represents a moral victory over the bigots (the actual bigots, rather than swamprat’s bigots, those being the people with the temerity to vote Yes in the survey), and delivers a message to the parliament that people want to see marriage equality.

  5. Wombat,

    I am not a grumpy old gay man, i am a VERY grumpy old gay man.

    I find in so offensive that str8s think it is inappropriate to oppose a farcical unscientific survey as good enough for gays . As if any str8 person would accept their rights being decided in such a way.

    That the Labor Party is incapable of seeing that this is unacceptable is probably a testament to its traditional and existing homphobia and the rotten Americanised liberal capitalism that is its new ideology.

  7. Swamprat,

    Are you the guy who head-butted Abbott yesterday?

    If your aim is to have marriage equality, the quickest way there from here is a ‘Yes’ vote.

  9. DB Cooper

    “If your aim is to have marriage equality, the quickest way there from here is a ‘Yes’ vote.”

    ———–

    Would you gaurantee that?

    Are you from Menzies House?

  10. “DB Cooper

    “If your aim is to have marriage equality, the quickest way there from here is a ‘Yes’ vote.”

    ———–

    Would you gaurantee that?

    Are you from Menzies House?”

    On the counter, what would a No vote achieve?

  11. swamprat,

    While the survey is quite undignified, the only way marriage equality is going to come about is with a parliamentary vote. The shortest route to that is a “Yes” vote.

    Although it is quite correct that no-one is obligated to vote ‘yes’, many Liberals will if the result of the survey is “Yes”.

  12. Swamprat….I take particular exception to being derided for doing exactly what the LGB members of my family have asked me to do. They resent the process as much as any of us. They’re rightly cynical about it. But they have asked for support and I’m very pleased to be there for them.

    My view is that the wrongs were not done by us. They were done to us. We can still stand up for each other even though (as it has ever been) we should not have to.

    I’m not going to be faulted by you for trying to advance the protections of my own family. You don’t have to like it. But you can stop describing people like me as though we are responsible for the outrages. We’re not. We are doing as we are bid by those we love.

  14. OK. Just finished the evening meal and watched the 7 news bulletin, Perth edition.

    Item 1 – “Dramatic footage of a high speed chase through the streets of Fremantle
    Item 2 – “Storms rip through Perth creating havoc and damage”
    Item 3 – “The man who headbutted Tony Abbott reveals the real reason behind why he did it”

    So they ended up telling the true story of what happened after all.

    I didn’t bother watching after that.

  17. Swamprat: I don’t see that the Labor Party is incapable of seeing that this survey is unacceptable, now. They have in this term (and I fully fully recognise the willingness of Labor to argue against SSM very very recently).

    Unless you mean the institution of marriage is heterosexist and labor shouldn’t be supporting LGBTSQI+ endeavours in this…

    I agree that labor are a capitalist system supporting party in essence. And fully pro US.

  18. briefly

    Swamprat is one bludger for whom no defeat willl ever match his pessimism.
    ——

    i may seem very pessimistic.

    But i see a country that has wasted its potential so badly.

    Our wealth has been given to spivs, both local and foreign..

    We have few institutions we trust anymore, we have widespread corruption and the powerful exploiting the weak, we have young people crippled by high housing costs and education debt. We destroy out environment but want massive population increase.

    We have close to the highest paid and piss poor politicians who contrive to be as unaccountable as possible. We have a warped electoral system that misrepresents the voters wishes.

    And we have an “alternative” government which we all know will change nothing that impacts on the careers of its MPs or its parties chances.

    Is it pessimism or realism?

  19. I asked about the survey. He told me his dad opened the letter and was going to hand the form to him. He had to respond quickly and say “no you handle that”.

    When you see how this affects real lives and how far we have to go on homophobia its only natural to feel pissef off at how some defend the contempt for gay people inherent in denying civil marriage.

    This isn’t just the Christian religion. Giving gay people the respect inherent in legal marriage is just one step towards breaking homophobia directed towards my young friend and others like him by other faiths and cultures.

    And, as an a Australians I feel just great reading this, It builds me up. Well done you pricks I never want to meet or know.

  20. A quote from KB:

    This kind of argument was crushed decades ago by Gough Whitlam with his famous comment that “only the impotent are pure”. It is frequently necessary to use mechanisms you disapprove of in order to get a result, and it doesn’t “legitimise” them at all.
    </blockquote

  22. Joel Selwood has to be the most protected player in AFL history. Every time he flops to the ground like an electrocuted rabbit its “Free Kick Selwood”.

  23. cud chewer.

    “only the impotent are pure”

    hahaha, i do not think anyone in the history of the heterosexist universe would ever make the mistake of thinking the ALP was ever pure, even by accident.

    So, rest assured i am in awe of your str8 potency!!!

  24. So you point out to Swamprat how well Labor have done in the most recent elections to be held here in Australia, and he returns fire with some pointless point scoring about the latest poll in Scotland!?!

    Some people are just beyond reason.

  25. Joel Selwood has to be the most protected player in AFL history. Every time he flops to the ground like an electrocuted rabbit its “Free Kick Selwood”.
    It’s the gay. It’s just hatred. It effect’s all our lives constantly.

  26. I must admit to being surprised the Abbott incident actually occurred.

    I fully expected he made it all up or it was an inside job with a local Young Lib or the like involved.

    Limited Through Mixed @ #1662 Friday, September 22nd, 2017 – 9:11 pm

    Uber is to kicked out of London.

    Good.

    Excellent news.
    A pity State Govts here capitulated to that bunch of bandits.

  33. What does it say about contemporary Australia and the ALP (given this is an ALP site) that no one has any interst in any politics that is non-Australia and non-USA. NZ has an election on Saturday.. and Catalonia faces a fought situation against the heirs of the Falangists in control in Madrid.

    What’s happening in Spain is heading towards the logical conclusion you get when the defenders of the central state refuse to countenance that a country within that state has a right to self-determination. The situation in Catalonia is possibly getting dangerous.

  34. bemused

    I must admit to being surprised the Abbott incident actually occurred.

    I’m not.

    Abbott is careful about some things. He’ll lie about the reason for things and details of what happened but rarely about whether something happened at all, particularly if random witnesses might pop up out of nowhere.

  35. swamprat

    that no one has any interst in any politics that is non-Australia and non-USA.

    ‘No one’ … Briefly and I regularly post on overseas elections just to name two.

    There have been in the last few months multiple posts on here re’ Turkish referendums, French Presidential elections, NZ is regularly mentioned just to name a few.

    You’re just another ‘lumper’.

  37. Swamprat, what you haven’t addressed is the dichotomy between your overconfident assertion about the ALP being essentially a bunch of losers, clashing with the facts, and as this is a psephology blog not a Labor blog I referred you to the only polls that count, ie elections, to prove your assertion as malarkey.

    I think that is way more important than a bunch of people with a historical chip on their shoulders in Catalonia.

    Btw, you forgot about the German election this weekend. : )

  38. Confessions

    “For some bizarre reason swamprat has also declared those who vote Yes in the postal survey bigoted.”

    —-

    You are a poor reader.

    I did not say that anyone voting yes was bigotted, I said YOU (Confessions) are bigotted for saying that an unscientific voluntory postal survey was what us gays should accept as our only chance.

    I will repeat that, as I know right wingers often have problems with reading. \

    I said that YOU, Confessions, is a bigot. I was NOT saying people who vote “yes” are bigots.

  39. KayJay

    Seeing as your GP doesn’t want to see you for a month infers he’s either given up on you or that things are steady.

    The second most likely. 🙂

  42. C@tmomma,

    I said that the polls were showing the ALP not much above a 50:50 result (given MOE).

    The elections are 18 months or more away.

    History has shown the LNP is a master at politics compared to the ALP. (The LNP has ruled 2:1 to ALP since the War).

    This government is woefull and on the nose.. yet the ALP cannot get much above 52:48.

    I have no idea what will happen butthe ALP seems very lacklustre and very conservative…..

  44. swamprat:

    I’m a bigot for encouraging people to vote Yes in the postal survey? I’m a bigot for suggesting this is the opportunity for people to have their say about marriage equality? You have a strangely warped view of bigotry.

    We’ve had 3 waves of feminism in this country that has led to women’s rights. While I wasn’t alive at the time I imagine there were women around circa wave 1 like you who threw their hands in the air, declared it too hard and ran screaming for the hills, declaring all those women left behind prepared to fight for our right to vote misogynists or whatever. Imagine they got the opportunity to participate in a postal survey about giving the right to women to vote. Do you think they’d petulantly sit it out declaring it a bigot vote, or would they latch on for all they had? Ditto Aboriginal rights advocates.

    Your social justice radar is warped if you think I’m the enemy in this fight. And you’re on the wrong side of history if you think handing the win to the No camp is going to get your mob any closer to equality on this issue.

  45. CTar1 @ #1689 Friday, September 22nd, 2017 – 9:54 pm

    KayJay

    Seeing as your GP doesn’t want to see you for a month infers he’s either given up on you or that things are steady.

    The second most likely. 🙂

    I have routine GP visits for prescriptions and review every 6 months and Ihave three monthly vitamin B12 injections.

    The heart scan is by way of my GP trying to make sure I am on track to be the best that I can be (I will be joining the US army any day now) and I am pleased to go along with this.

    Ordinarily I would be having a colonoscopy this month as well and am please that the John Hunter specialist, in whom I am well pleased, has given me an extra years grace.

    I have recently come into possession of a load of family history and find that we KayJays are long lived breed.

    Back to the movie where the aliens are trying to take over the earth. Why they are doing this is unclear as obviously if they just waited we are well on the way of wiping ourselves out.

    Goodnight all.

    Late night coffee…..☕

  46. kayJay

    I would be having a colonoscopy this month

    A years ‘grace’ on one of these is equivalent to a small but useful lottery win.

    I deal well with the actual procedure and the anaesthetic but the diet and ‘supplements’ I f’ken hate!

  49. The Central Spanish State is using its power to thrawt democratic expression in Catalonia:

    – it has taken control of Catalonia Gov finances and frozen the Catalan Gvernment’s Accounts;

    – they have had senior Catalan Government officals arrested

    – 700 Catalan mayors have been threatened with arrest if they “facilitate” a referrendum

    – no-pro independence Catalan newspapers have described this as a coup d’etat

    – the Spanish Supreme Court has fined members of the Catalan Electoral Commission 12,000 Euro’s a day

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 34 of 36
1 … 33 34 35 36