Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Back to normal from Newspoll after a blowout in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago.

Newspoll has Labor’s lead back at 53-47 after a 54-46 blowout a fortnight ago, with primary votes at 37% for the Coalition (up two), 38% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 8% for One Nation (down one). Both Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten are on 34% approval and 54% disapproval, which means one-point drops in both for Turnbull, and no change for Shorten. Oddly, Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has blow out to 46-29, from 43-33. Paywalled report from The Australian here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

631 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. In evidence given to a Senate committee, drug and alcohol specialists said there were between 200,000-500,000 people already seeking treatment for drug and alcohol issues in Australia per year who were not able to access services, while 200,000 were already accessing treatment each year.

    Alison Ritter, director of the Drug Policy Modelling Program at the University of New South Wales told the committee her research in 2014 had tracked how many people were getting treatment, and how many were missing out. “Already treatment services are full and clinicians are fully occupied. There is the idea that one might be able to purchase a treatment place for someone out of the schedules in this welfare reform bill.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2017/09/01/why-australia-cant-force-drug-addicts-on-welfare-to-get-treatment/

  2. I don’t see bias in having a photo of such an historic event.

    Wholeheartedly agree DB, latham and rudd mkii, were two occasions when i voted lib, could not bring myself to vote for such people.

    but this is the only memorable photo that has pride of place. no photos or mentions of howard talking of kids overboard, never ever gst, support for the Pell, no need for a royal commission, the interview where he gloats over how he increased house prices for homeowners and then is struck dumb by the realisation he placed houses out of reach for the homeowners kids and grandkids, no wmds and people mincers, the balance is there.

  3. Tim Beshara‏ @Tim_Beshara · 22m22 minutes ago

    10 of 17 of the Liberals who lost their seats at the last election have been put on the Government payroll.

  4. DB Cooper @ #148 Monday, September 4th, 2017 – 10:36 am

    Boris,

    Latham’s handshake was the most significant, and stupidest, act ever by an Opposition leader on the eve of an election. And it happened to take place in the ABC studios.
    I don’t see bias in having a photo of such an historic event.

    Latham is an embarrassment, but don’t understand how a bloody handshake created such a storm of confected outrage.

    Of course had it been the other way around, it would have been all but ignored.

    Still there are people who believe that the game of politics in this country is played by some quaint Australian version of Queensbury rules.

  5. @ P1 – it’s load shedding, but only of loads that have zero or minimal cost to be shed for that time. Normal load shedding turns off whole feeders, and the average value of lost load has been determined to be ~$14,000/MWh.

    Loads with a high cost to turn down simply won’t participate in load shedding programs.

    Some loads can shed for a certain amount of time for free. Cold Storage can turn off their chillers for a certain amount of time, then turn them back on. Food stays cold due to the insulation, no cost at all to deliver. In normal load shedding, they don’t get to choose how long they lose power for, and don’t get advanced notice. So their stored goods might get over temperature and end in the bin.

    Assembly line loads can shut off individual components, often they build up storage of goods that have gone through process 1 and are waiting to go through process 2. You can turn the machine running process 1 off for a while without having any costs or lost production. In normal load shedding, they lose both machien 1 and machien 2, and thus lose production.

    Some loads can turn off for free/cheap on some days, and can’t on others. They will participate in load shedding programs, but only turn up on the day if it suits them. That is where aggregators provide value. They enroll more than 100 MW of capacity in order to deliver 100 MW, and they coach their loads to ensure the porfolio delivers 100% in aggregate.

    Yes, it’s load shedding, but it’s load shedding done well. It is a very antiquated view to believe that all load should be met at all times, regardless of the cost to do so.

  6. On handshakes. I notice that Trump’s handshake is the same he used when shaking hands with people in Texas ‘to comfort them’ as he used to national leaders. Holds on until the people pull away. Seems it’s just his natural way of asserting domination.

  7. Details, details. TA is never afraid to lie.

    Schadenfreude George‏
    @GeorgeBludger

    This is not a renunciation document, and is not dated 1993, it’s a letter about a renunciation document, and not of the original

    Schadenfreude

  8. We are proud of our state-of-the-art new hospital. The whole time it was being built, the Lib leader Steve Marshall never had a good word to say about it, and complained about some aspect of it.

    IMO, There has to be some great disaster for the ALP to lose the next SA state election, like the premier being found on the Speakers desk with a goat and tub of butter, And he would probably get away with it as long as it was a Canberra goat and SA butter.

  9. Hello

    I see Mr Abbott has done the whole Trump birther thing on Mr Shorten over citizenship. Its going to be interesting to see how many journalists actually call him out.

    Mr Abbott did a presser that implied Mr Shorten has something to hide. Thus he is basically saying Mr Shorten is lying.

    How many journalists are going to call that out and demand Mr Abbott put up or shut up that Mr Shorten is lying.

    Without the implication there was absolutely no point to the Abbott presser.

  10. Boris @ #152 Monday, September 4th, 2017 – 10:56 am

    I don’t see bias in having a photo of such an historic event.

    Wholeheartedly agree DB, latham and rudd mkii, were two occasions when i voted lib, could not bring myself to vote for such people.

    but this is the only memorable photo that has pride of place. no photos or mentions of howard talking of kids overboard, never ever gst, support for the Pell, no need for a royal commission, the interview where he gloats over how he increased house prices for homeowners and then is struck dumb by the realisation he placed houses out of reach for the homeowners kids and grandkids, no wmds and people mincers, the balance is there.

    And you voted for these people.

  11. It’s interesting that Abbott’s letter says the records show “you renounced” on 12 October 1993. It does not say that the renunciation was completed or accepted on that date.

  12. People want to vote for the Libs because they think they will help them make or keep money. They are always looking for a reason not to vote for a party that will spend some of their taxes on helping the less fortunate, that party being Labor.Therefore the photo of Latham’s handshake was very damaging.

    It provided a good smokescreen for greed to decide votes.

  13. srpeatling: ACL’s Lyle Shelton tells Sky ‘no’ advocates are persecuted: ”
    They will go after you at work. They will send you white powder at work.”

    joshgnosis: Shelton again claiming Archbishop Porteous was “taken to court”. It.never.went.to.court.

  14. [Adrian
    Latham is an embarrassment, but don’t understand how a bloody handshake created such a storm of confected outrage.
    Of course had it been the other way around, it would have been all but ignored.]

    It was a gotcha moment filmed in the abc studios, the am 50 years site notes footage of howard spilling tea in his lap never made it to air and has “disappeared”, am50 years also notes staff boasting of how they were going to “get” Hawke” in a gotcha moment by playing a previous tape of him re Keating to embarrass him live on air.

    Oh, what fun and joy am has had over the past 50 years, getting labor in gotcha moments and fawning over liberal, 2 labor leaders poorly portrayed 1 lib leader deified. Remove the names from the passages and show it to peeps to see if they see the impartiality on display. Only plus from the abc site is it is geo blocked so overseas countries cannot see what a farce it is.

  15. like the premier being found on the Speakers desk with a goat and tub of butter

    That is exactly what bernardi and abbott have been warning will happen if marriage equality is passed puffy.

  16. And you voted for these people

    Um no, I’m not sure how aware you are of the whole political scene but all that related to howard who was voted out of office and his own seat in 2007.

  17. Bemused,
    You might not have seen anything to fuss over, but many people did. I doubt it changed the election result, but it can’t have helped Latham or Labor. I don’t think anyone wants politics in Australia to be about physical intimidation.

    With the exception of his response to Port Arthur, I disagree with just about everything Howard ever did. But Latham’s handshake was just ugly. It looked like a big thug trying to intimidate a little, old man.

  18. Michael J. Biercuk‏ @MJBiercuk · 1m1 minute ago

    Mixing together roles of research universities with vocational education & industrial product development is harmful to the entire sector.

  19. DB Cooper @ #180 Monday, September 4th, 2017 – 11:57 am

    Bemused,
    You might not have seen anything to fuss over, but many people did. I doubt it changed the election result, but it can’t have helped Latham or Labor. I don’t think anyone wants politics in Australia to be about physical intimidation.

    With the exception of his response to Port Arthur, I disagree with just about everything Howard ever did. But Latham’s handshake was just ugly. It looked like a big thug trying to intimidate a little, old man.

    For a start, Howard is not little and was not really ‘old’ at that stage. I have met him face to face and he is about average height or a bit above. Yes, Latham is taller.
    IIRC, the handshake was in a confined space as Howard was exiting a studio Latham was about to enter and they were in each others space. So what?

  20. Tony Abbott on being called a ‘disloyal c—‘ by Turnbull

    FORMER Prime Minister Tony Abbott has been asked about a heated mid-air confrontation with Malcolm Turnbull in 2014, saying ‘I didn’t talk about it then and I’m certainly not going to talk about it now’.

    The Daily Telegraph today revealed Mr Turnbull fronted Mr Abbott following an event in Sydney, labelling him a “disloyal c***” and giving a blunt assessment of his first 10-months as prime minister.

    https://www.thechronicle.com.au/news/tony-abbott-being-called-disloyal-c-turnbull/3219823/

  21. The friggin’ handshake is a classic example of the media’s propensity to make a friggin’ mountain out of a friggin’ molehill, particularly when Labor is involved.

    We can treat refugees like criminals, turn a blind eye to taxpayer funded pedophile organisations (were it not for Gillard), pretend domestic violence doesn’t exist, involve ourselves in illegal wars that kill countless civilians, gradually erode civil rights, etc etc, but HANDSHAKE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Shock Horror!

  22. zoomster @ #188 Monday, September 4th, 2017 – 12:16 pm

    Latham has said that his handshake was meant to intimidate. It wasn’t accidental.

    Further proof, if any was needed, that he was a complete goose and should never have held the leadership.
    To me it just looked like a handshake in a cramped space.
    Would have made some sense if Howard was going into an interview to put him off his game, but that was not the case.

  23. Guardian live:

    The National Farmers Federation president Fiona Simson, standing next to Joyce, and well clear of the boning floor, is welcoming a huge celebration on 21 November, which will be national agriculture day. Apparently national agriculture day is an initiative of the mining magnate Gina Rinehart.

    This will be a magnificent day, Simson thinks.

    The duo then throw to questions from reporters. Joyce wonders whether there are any questions on national agriculture day.

    [(Pause])*Crickets*

    Joyce flushes in an effort to contain his frustration. Many questions follow on Joyce’s citizenship status.

  24. [BK
    BK
    I do not think that photo is anatomically correct. Maybe pieces from about 4 people?
    ____________________
    So Mesma is a chimera!
    ]

    BK, I think this might be closer to the truth.

    Empousa

    Empousai are monsters in Greek mythology under the control of the goddess Hecate. They are known to feed on the blood of men and are the basis for the image of the modern vampire.

    History
    The empousai are the beautiful daughters of the goddess Hecate and the spirit Mormo. They feast on the blood of seduced men as they slept. Empousai are created by combining together dark magic, animal, and bronze.

    Empousai are pictured as wearing brazen slippers and bearing flaming hair. The name is said to mean “one-footed.” This is because they are a one-legged hybrid, with a donkey’s leg and a Celestial Bronze prosthetic leg.

    http://riordan.wikia.com/wiki/Empousa

  25. TonyAbbottMHR: @samanthamaiden My office showed the letter confirming that I’d renounced UK citizenship to any journo who asked and Bill should do the same twitter.com/samanthamaiden…

    samanthamaiden: Not true I asked for document for years when I was on Sundays Richard Dowdy never coughed it up @TonyAbbottMHR. Also why not just release it twitter.com/tonyabbottmhr/…

  26. When Joyce steps in for Turnbull, does this mean the effective PM and deputy PM (Nash) have constitution issues?

    So both senior leaders if the gov are in trouble?

  27. Puff, the Magic Dragon. @ #173 Monday, September 4th, 2017 – 11:47 am

    People want to vote for the Libs because they think they will help them make or keep money. They are always looking for a reason not to vote for a party that will spend some of their taxes on helping the less fortunate, that party being Labor.Therefore the photo of Latham’s handshake was very damaging.

    It provided a good smokescreen for greed to decide votes.

    And it goes beyond money. And the Libs make it so easy – appealing directly to the more base instincts which I would put into two broad classes – selfishness and fear. The SSM arguments are a classic example –

    selfishness as exemplified by ‘you can’t have what I have’; ‘I need to be better off than you’; ‘I will be lessened by you having what I have”

    fear as in all the horror stories and collapse of civilisation as we know it, and all false.

  28. elonmusk: Nobody likes being regulated, but everything (cars, planes, food, drugs, etc) that’s a danger to the public is regulated. AI should be too.

    Oh dear. The right won’t like that. Billionaire calls for more red tape.

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