Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Back to normal from Newspoll after a blowout in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago.

Newspoll has Labor’s lead back at 53-47 after a 54-46 blowout a fortnight ago, with primary votes at 37% for the Coalition (up two), 38% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 8% for One Nation (down one). Both Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten are on 34% approval and 54% disapproval, which means one-point drops in both for Turnbull, and no change for Shorten. Oddly, Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has blow out to 46-29, from 43-33. Paywalled report from The Australian here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

631 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. Abbotts’ letter dated 2015 from the UK Govt saying he renounced UK Citizenship in 1993 good enough for me.

    It’s a long time ago and that neither Abbott or the UK govt still have the original bits of correspondence is not surprising. The UK Citizenship Register records that he did it.

  2. The HC hearing of the SSM plebithing applications will be held on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. A result should be expected promptly, as the mail out is scheduled to commence next Tuesday.

    It will be interesting to see if they just knock it out straight away as an unauthorised use of the funds and then forego a decision on the other argument.

  3. CTar1
    Abbotts’ letter dated 2015 from the UK Govt saying he renounced UK Citizenship in 1993 good enough for me.

    He’ll always be a cryptic foreign citizen!

  4. “The UK Citizenship Register records that he did it.”

    Where does that bit come from? I could well imagine that Tones, as PM, was able to bully the Poms into accepting that he filled out the forms (now lost!) in 1993 and amending the register accordingly.

  5. There’s only one reason why the Lib/Lab cartel refuse an audit. They’re running a protection racket.

    How many illegals are occupying parliamentary seats??

  6. Can’t say I often agree with Gotti, but he’s right on this!

    CBA shareholders set to be major victims of money-laundering scandal

    As the Commonwealth Bank money laundering-terror funding affair worsens, suddenly it becomes apparent that the innocents, CBA shareholders, are looming as the major victims.

    Already they have watched their CBA shares fall about 10 per cent since the Austrac announcement on August 3 of civil court action against the lender for alleged breaches of money-laundering and anti-terror financing laws. Shares in Australia’s second largest bank, Westpac, were almost steady over the same period.

    Accordingly, on the basis of a comparison between CBA and Westpac shares, the market thinks that the combination of corporate damage and fines to CBA will be between $13b illion and $14 billion. That’s more than last year’s CBA $10 billion profit.

    Markets like CBA shares are driven by fear of the unknown and are often wrong when the full facts are revealed–– but the error can go both ways.

    If, theoretically, the CBA fines and damages (not the impact on the business) total more than one year’s profit or $10 billion then CBA shareholders not only lose out via the share price fall but will be forced to inject a major chunk of the loss back into the company via lower dividend and/or share issues so as to restore the bank’s capital ratios.

    In other words it’s the shareholders rather than the directors and managers who pay the fines and damages.

    There is something wrong with a system where this happens.

    When the Austrac investigation was first announced Commonwealth Bank shares were just below $84. They immediately slumped but the CBA public relations machine put the message out that it was a systems failure and might even be considered one offence.

    That held the shares above $80 until gradually it became apparent that the situation was considerably worse than the initial CBA message. Austrac had spent years working on the case and there was no way it would be regarded as one offence.

    The shares then fell to the next support level — just above $75, or about 10 per cent below the level prior to the Austrac announcement.

    Ahead of the CBA is not only the task of sorting through the 12,506 transactions linked to the automatic teller machines but also the 778,370 accounts being monitored.

    And how much of the information on the extended Austrac investigation reached the CEO and the board.

    These will be vital issues where the interests of certain CBA middle managers may be different to those at the top and to directors. But this is speculation because there are a lot of facts yet to come out as the warning signs are examined.

  7. I assume another reason Turnbull refuses an audit is that with Bill Shorten as LOTO he remains an outside chance at winning the next election.

  8. Rex Douglas @ #214 Monday, September 4th, 2017 – 1:44 pm

    bemused @ #212 Monday, September 4th, 2017 – 1:41 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #210 Monday, September 4th, 2017 – 1:39 pm

    There’s only one reason why the Lib/Lab cartel refuse an audit. They’re running a protection racket.

    How many illegals are occupying parliamentary seats??

    Your constant references to “illegals” has blown your cover. Welcome back Truthie!

    I am not Truthi (whoever that is), bemused.

    Your obsession has finally blown your cover.

  9. ab

    The process is a simple one.

    Abbott seems to have asked the UK HC here about it. “fill out this form” would have been the answer.

    No govt with any sort of ‘records management disposal process’ would keep an unremarkable original form for 25 yrs when it’s existence and result is recorded in the Home Office Register.

  10. bemused @ #218 Monday, September 4th, 2017 – 1:46 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #214 Monday, September 4th, 2017 – 1:44 pm

    bemused @ #212 Monday, September 4th, 2017 – 1:41 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #210 Monday, September 4th, 2017 – 1:39 pm

    There’s only one reason why the Lib/Lab cartel refuse an audit. They’re running a protection racket.

    How many illegals are occupying parliamentary seats??

    Your constant references to “illegals” has blown your cover. Welcome back Truthie!

    I am not Truthi (whoever that is), bemused.

    Your obsession has finally blown your cover.

    whatever, bemused 😆

  11. This is the question of the day.

    craigthomler: Is it appropriate to delegate someone facing a High Court challenge to their legitimacy as acting Prime Minister of Australia? #auspol

    Abbott is just a distraction.

  12. Who would Labor be running a protection racket for? The Greens and Nationals? Senator X?

    Labor has the processes in place, and it would seem the Liberals do, too. The majors aren’t interested in investigating the majors because they know there’s nothing there.

  13. …of course, if Malcolm thinks that we should all be worrying about Korea so much that we shouldn’t be doing anything else, he should stop talking about Shorten’s citizenship.

  14. CTar1 – You mean, it’s not possible that, when he became PM, Tones worked hard on the poms to get them to accept that, in 1993 he did renounce and they should mark the record accordingly?

  15. These journos have the memory of goldfishes.

    The Labor man Joel Fitzgibbon is on ABC24 with a curtain raiser to question time. He’s got eyes on Barnaby Joyce.

    Fitzgibbon is asked about Tony Abbott’s remarks about Bill Shorten this morning: that disrupting the parliament only demonstrates that you aren’t up to the task of being prime minister.

    Q: You were in the thick of those Abbott years, wearing a hat that was chief government whip at the time. You’re familiar with those antics. Don’t you see shades of that re-emerging under Bill Shorten’s leadership?

    Joel Fitzgibbon:

    No, I don’t. I did see Tony Abbott’s tactics upfront. They moved a suspension motion every day for three years.
    Every day.

  16. CTar1, Question.

    After considerable toing and froing, this escalated to the point of litigation in January this year.

    So, after Magrathea saw Abbott’s tweeted letter, he forwarded a copy to the Home Office, through his lawyers — to tell them he would discontinue his court action if they could simply confirm Abbott’s letter matched their records. It was already public knowledge, so why not?

    On 14 July 2017, Magrathea emailed:

    Anthony John Abbott born 4/11/57 in London and renounced his British citizenship. Could I please request a copy of the form RN he submitted and a copy of the receipt for fee payment please.

    The matter is no longer covered by your privacy rules because he has tweeted the information about his renunciation to the world. The form RN and receipt is to confirm the document he showed the world is legitimate.
    On 24 July 2017, the Home Office replied to Magrathea, thanking him for his email of 14 July 2017 and advising him that they could

    ‘… confirm that the Home Office does not hold this information.’

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/tony-abbotts-letter,10547

  17. BiGD / ab

    The form RN and receipt is to confirm the document he showed the world is legitimate.

    FMD … Do you have a receipt from 25 years ago and a form associated with it still?

    Enough ‘conspiracy’ for me for the day.

    Abbott flapping his bit of paper is about making trouble for the Govt/Turnbull.

  18. Lizzie:

    These journos have the memory of goldfishes.

    Only when it suits their agenda.

    The AM team, for example, are very good at remembering the oh so important Latham handshake.

  19. @ Ctar1 – if that receipt was the only thing that kept me from getting fired, and I had enemies who wanted me to get fired, then I would have the original, plus copies of it at another physical location (parents house), on at least 3 storage media (computer HD, phone HD and USB stick), as well as in some clouds (my email account, family member’s email, dropbox).

    Hell, I go nearly to that level of backup for particularly important photos and delicious recipes. Anyone who wouldn’t do that for a form renouncing their citizenship, which was required for their job is an idiot.

    Edit: Actually, I have never really had enemies. My above protections are for things I really don’t want to have accidentally lost, and probably wouldn’t be sufficient to protect against someone maliciously destroying them all and then getting me fired. I would go to an internet cafe, create an email address with no links to myself then I never use for anything else, and scan it to that email address.

  20. sspencer_63: Turnbull’s terrible judgment again on show. Refuses to allow statements on Korea, then attacks ALP for not asking question on Korea #QT

  21. sspencer_63: Next time Turnbull accuses people of playing politics on Korea, remember this. Appalling judgment, and behaviour. Again. twitter.com/Shorten_Suite/…

  22. Ctar1 – Actually, if I was renouncing my citizenship of a country, I very much doubt I would throw out any of the paper work, and I’m pretty sloppy.

  23. Sorry

    The tweet the link was to

    Shorten_Suite: The Opposition asked the PM’s office to consider statement on indulgence on Nth Korea. They accepted, then withdrew just before #qt
    #auspol

  24. If the High Court takes a hard line on s44, will Shorten then suggest to Malcolm an independent audit of all MPs???? Surely, the Libs would have more to lose. Certainly, if the HC does take a hard line, it will be squeaky-bum time for a lot of govt MPs in the gun.

  25. Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden 17s17 seconds ago
    More
    FYI @billshortenmp has documents. They lie at Labor HQ in Canberra. Why won’t he release? Precedent. Not clear others in order @SkyNewsAust

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