BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor

Very slightly better news on the poll front this week for the Coalition, although Labor maintains its thumping lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The only poll this week was a slightly-less-bad-for-the-government result from Essential Research, which takes some of the edge off last week’s surge to Labor. The Coalition’s two gains on the seat projection consist of one apiece in Queensland and Western Australia. No new results on leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

636 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor”

  1. Trog Sorrenson @ #599 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 9:00 pm

    If indeed you are either, I hope you are both offended an appalled, and that those emotions will one day cause you to reflect on your own behaviour with a view to making some move towards acceptance of others.

    LOL
    As if this would carry any weight with the Malcolm Roberts of PB.

    Name calling and abuse is all you’ve got.

    Not much is it?

  2. Bernard Keane has some insight into NewsPoll narrowing reasons

    “Newspoll tip: narrowing of Labor lead to spark commentary on how “Cuba! Russia! Socialism!” and Dutton helped MT storm back into contention.”

  3. There is no such thing as a discussion with P1, just a manipulation of then facts. The more you engage the more you get sucked into the troll mind.

  4. I grew up in, and absorbed completely, the standard RC homophobia. It was thoroughgoing. I thought ‘poofters’ were lesser humans who were filthy who were well on the road to hell. Literally. I was aware of poofter bashing without being particularly concerned about it. They were getting what they dserved, after all. It has taken me most of my life to deprogram myself.
    I don’t think yhere dhould be a plebiscite – it is, IMO, more bastardry from the same fount.
    It demeans gays. It demeans straights. It demeans me.

    But, if there is a plebiscite, I will be voting yes.

    It won’t be a perfect choice because the religious folk, the ones who looked thr other way while gay kids were driven to suicide, the ones who looked the other way while gays were thrown off Sydney’s cliffs, and the ones who are now insisting that they have the only real moral standing when it comes to defining precisely the potential marital status of gays. have made certain that there are no perfect options.

    I will expect no thanks from my gay friends and relations because none are due.

    I will expect some religious folk to be sensible and rational and to be true followers of Jesus. These will vote yes. The remainder will stick with the sort of thinking thst once insisted that there was a Limbo, that eating meat on Fridays was a mortal sin and that cremation rather than burial was also a mortal sin…
    … all now discontinued lines.

  5. anton – (not sure how to quote someone under this new Crikey structure..), Gladys has no real convictions and tends to float with the prevailing winds.
    Example of this being council mergers – yesterday she contradicted her own local govt minister who said council mergers were still on the agenda (which was govt policy!) then today Gladys says no that’s not our policy, no more mergers.
    She doesn’t mind throwing her colleagues under a bus, which will bite her on the arse eventually.

  6. Well said, Boer.

    I was a bit scornful about ME (the ‘why do they want it?” school) until I was doorknocking during the 2007 campaign and got into conversation with a local shop owner, who wanted to marry his long term partner. I find it hard to say no to people about anything…if even only that one man wanted that one thing, I couldn’t see any reason why he shouldn’t have it, or how it would hurt anybody else in the entire world to let him.

  7. bemused

    Yes, the dishonesty of the arguments are very similar to ModLib’s, but ModLib would, at least, occasionally recognise she had got something wrong and admit it – — which is why ML can’t return here Because Malcolm.

  8. Boerwar @ #606 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 9:10 pm

    I grew up in, and absorbed completely, the standard RC homophobia. It was thoroughgoing. I thought ‘poofters’ were lesser humans who were filthy who were well on the road to hell. Literally. I was aware of poofter bashing without being particularly concerned about it. They were getting what they dserved, after all. It has taken me most of my life to deprogram myself.
    I don’t think yhere dhould be a plebiscite – it is, IMO, more bastardry from the same fount.
    It demeans gays. It demeans straights. It demeans me.

    But, if there is a plebiscite, I will be voting yes.

    It won’t be a perfect choice because the religious folk, the ones who looked thr other way while gay kids were driven to suicide, the ones who looked the other way while gays were thrown off Sydney’s cliffs, and the ones who are now insisting that they have the only real moral standing when it comes to defining precisely the potential marital status of gays. have made certain that there are no perfect options.

    I will expect no thanks from my gay friends and relations because none are due.

    I will expect some religious folk to be sensible and rational and to be true followers of Jesus. These will vote yes. The remainder will stick with the sort of thinking thst once insisted that there was a Limbo, that eating meat on Fridays was a mortal sin and that cremation rather than burial was also a mortal sin…
    … all now discontinued lines.

    So, you’re voting against your childhood and upbringing.

    You may not have caught up with the reality that homosexuality is not illegal these days.

    that battle was won years ago.

  9. confessions @ #593 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 6:52 pm

    grimace:

    My apologies, I thought you were criticizing mine and Socrates’ comments about the Barnett govt intransigence on the local economy.

    The profligate spending of the Barnett Government is an absolute disgrace and I hope that the Labor Party use this period of gross mismanagement against the state Liberals for decades to come, in the same way, that the Liberals successfully painted themselves as the party of responsible economic management for the last few decades.

    The Liberals have managed to piss away the proceeds of a once in a lifetime boom with little in the way of infrastructure to show for it AND they’ve left the state ~$36b in debt. At the very least the Howard Government left us with money in the bank, their profligate spending notwithstanding.

    The Liberals built one replacement hospital that was not big enough (Fiona Stanley Hospital), another replacement (Midland Public Hospital) was built by the Catholic church who have refused to provide reproductive health services at it and worse have refused to allow direct access to the hospital from the state owned and run reproductive health clinic annexure that had to be built next to it, built only a minor extension to one of the rail lines, didn’t materially add any distance to the state’s freeways or highways and didn’t do much in the way of upgrades to the highway network.

    The new Perth Children’s hospital is a debacle which quite rightly has been laid squarely at the feet of the Liberals. The building is yet to be commissioned due to lead contamination in the water supply, had an asbestos scandal during construction and is regarded by medical groups as being built too small.

    Examples that we have of utterly wasteful spending on infrastructure that Barnett did build include the the new indoor, oval and rectangular stadiums (the second which has not yet secured the AFL as a tenant, and the third which recently lost one of its two major tenants), Elizabeth Quay, the Premier’s Palace and the money the Liberals were planning on burning on Roe 8.

  10. GG:

    “Homosexuality is not illegal. They can co-habit and exchange bodily fluids to their hearts content.

    So, tell me, how does changing these laws affect your life in any way?”

    1. Marriage has nothing to do with sex, as I’m sure some heterosexuals will attest. And not all sex involves exchange of bodily fluids.

    2. I am gay. I have no immediate desire to marry anyone, but I should have the right to do so if I wanted to. Marriage equality gives equal status to heterosexual relationships before the law. Just because it’s “not illegal” to have a homosexual relationship doesn’t mean that homosexual relationships are equal to heterosexual ones. That homosexual relationships are currently viewed as being less worthy than heterosexual ones has a negative impact on many people, particularly young gay people growing up. Again, you’ve not answered how this affects you personally, which leads to the conclusion that it doesn’t, because you refuse to give a single reason.

  11. Lucky Climate Change is a hoax….

    “KURNELL residents have been placed on alert tonight after a large out-of-control bushfire took hold of the peninsular in Sydney’s south.

    The NSW Rural Fire Service said the bushfire was burning in windy conditions on Captain Cook Dr at Kurnell.

    The fire has been listed as out-of-control.

    Local residents have been told to monitor the conditions and Watch and Act.

    The blaze has already consumed 10 hectares of bushland.

    The fire comes as Sydney experienced high temperatures today during the driest winter in 15 years.

    High temperatures and high winds yesterday fanned a grass fires at Ashcroft and created hazy conditions.

    Hot and windy conditions have fanned several fires across the state Picture: Twitter
    Fire danger warnings are very high from the north coast to the south coast, including the greater Sydney region.

    Strong winds resulted in a number of planned hazard reduction burns being postponed around Sydney.

  12. Only the abusive trolls such as you!

    Yes, I do tend to get abusive with climate deniers, liers, and others who distort the truth.
    A personal failing.

  13. GG
    It is not your idea of a marriage and it never will be. But SSM will be marriage to those who get married and those who support it or do not give a damn.

    So SSM will be legislated, people will get married to people of the same sex, they will be married, and you will never believe it is real marriage.

    Plenty of people thought that about divorcees in the past, and mixed race or mixed religion marriages, in the past.

    What you think will be as it is, as is your right, but same sex marriage will happen. You can go on thinking as you do, but the change is happening.

    Catholics for example, do not recognise marriages outside the Catholic faith, so there is a lot of us who were never married and our kids are’ illegitimate’ going by that.

    And I imagine people in Same Sex marriages will give the Catholic church the same concern as the rest of us who are told we are not married because we had secular/other-religious marriages.

    WGAF?

    theirb>Greensborough Growler @ #569 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 7:18 pm

    grimace @ #567 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 7:41 pm

    Player One @ #551 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 4:43 pm

    cud chewer @ #540 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 6:27 pm

    P1,

    For once I agree with you. The battler over SSM is really about the continuation of a war against gay people by religious zealots.

    Hmm. You claim to agree, but then say that. I guess your prejudice means you really can’t even see the problem here. Which means there is little point in arguing.

    He’s got a point.

    The “no” supporters have only touched on SSM in a cursory way during their campaigning. They’ve chosen instead to focus on slippery slope arguments, gender issues, male children being allowed to wear dresses to school, political correctness – when they really mean that there are one less legal and socially acceptable means of discrimination against LGBTIQ people, religious freedom – see explanation for political correctness, the safe schools program and other irrelevant nonsense.*

    They are running a proxy campaign against the laws and norms of our society catching up with the factual reality of human sexuality & gender, and against their loss of privilege relative to a weaker group in society.

    * my listing of proxy issues is probably not exhaustive

    So many word, so much blah.

    So many commenters are just jumping on a soapbox to prove their moral virtue. The only proxy issue is the basic one that homosexuality is not illegal, people can couple if they desire, but many do not believe that actually means it is a marriage.

    I’m comfortable with such unions being formally recognised in law. But, it still ain’t a marriage.

  14. grimace:

    Agree with all that, and have said before that voters perceived the Barnett govt did nothing to prepare for the end of the mining boom except attach themselves to beauty projects such as Elizabeth Quay and the new footy stadium.

    As always it takes a Labor govt to come in and clean house.

  15. sprocket_

    Lucky Climate Change is a hoax….

    If hurricane Irma impacts the US-not a given at this stage, but a reasonable probability – then there could be cause for a ” national reevaluation” of the Trumpian dismissal of climate change in the US.
    Millions of people can be flooded out in Bangladesh and India, but this means fuck all to the “know nothings” in the US.
    Harvey’s impact on Houston followed by a double whammy on the east coast of the US is another matter.
    https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/irma-major-hurricane-atlantic-ocean-intensification

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