BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor

Very slightly better news on the poll front this week for the Coalition, although Labor maintains its thumping lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The only poll this week was a slightly-less-bad-for-the-government result from Essential Research, which takes some of the edge off last week’s surge to Labor. The Coalition’s two gains on the seat projection consist of one apiece in Queensland and Western Australia. No new results on leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

636 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor”

  1. cud chewer @ #540 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 6:27 pm

    P1,

    For once I agree with you. The battler over SSM is really about the continuation of a war against gay people by religious zealots.

    Hmm. You claim to agree, but then say that. I guess your prejudice means you really can’t even see the problem here. Which means there is little point in arguing.

  2. Fess
    I have friends and relatives in Qld and mean them no ill will. But they do seem willing to put up with the indefensible. As for WA, I can but agree. Secession is a mad idea when there is a boom. After the boom is over it makes Brexit look clever. And Brexit is not clever.

  3. Another rat deserts the sinking Berejklian ship

    ‘In a text message confirming his retirement this afternoon, Mr Piccoli said: “The position with UNSW is a once in a lifetime opportunity for me to keep making a contribution to education policy and research.

    “I believe I still have much to offer in education so this is a perfect platform to do just that.”

    Mr Piccoli added: “I have been working on achieving some important goals for my electorate in the past six months, including a commitment to a new hospital in Griffith and support to the redgum timber industry. The government has now done both of these.”

    Mr Piccoli said he was “sorry to be causing a by-election”.

    “I will be doing everything I can to make sure the Nats win it and the Coalition wins the 2019 election.

    “The worst thing possible for the Murray electorate is a Labor government, either state, federal or the nightmare scenario of both!

    “My greatest achievement was leading the Gonski school funding reforms. Without NSW, those reforms would have died five years ago.

    “I have told the premier. She is sorry to see me go but wished me all the best.”

    Premier Gladys Berejiklian is already facing by-election tests in Cootamundra, after the resignation of former Nationals minister Katrina Hodgkinson, and the seat of Blacktown after former Labor leader John Robertson quit to take up a job as CEO of Foodbank.

    Mr Piccoli’s seat of Murray will also now go to the polls, less than 18 months out from the March 2019 state election, with the by-elections tipped for early November.’

  4. Socrates:

    I too have family in Qld (north Qld no less), and often times even they scratch their heads at what passes for priorities in their state.

  5. P1

    Almost every social change has required ongoing ‘wars’ – the ‘war’ for equality for women has been fought for centuries and is still a long way from resolution. Giving women the vote and equal rights didn’t do the job.

    The problems of indigenous Australians weren’t solved by Mabo or the Apology.

    That these actions didn’t deliver the ultimate solution didn’t make them pointless, or indeed lessen their significance in any way at all.

    I doubt any one here thinks “Huh! I’ll vote ‘yes’ for marriage equality and that’ll fix every bit of discrimination the homosexual community faces.”

  6. Have spent an enjoyable few hours watching Midnight Oil on their tour of the US and Europe. Some mixed quality videoed from the fans in the audience. But some remarkable gems.

    For YouTube users, search for “midnight Oil live 2017”

  7. Speaking of state by-elections, when will the Northcote by-election thread (possibly combined with a general Victorian politics thread)?

  8. I’d actually argue that legalising same sex marriage as immediately as possible is important to the ongoing battle for LGBT+ equality because it allows resolution on the issue and the community to move on the next thing, rather than spending time and resources fighting on the same hill.

    People who care about equality in this area will celebrate once marriage equality is legalised but then will immediately take up arms (metaphorically speaking) and advance on to the next battle.

  9. zoomster @ #557 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 6:57 pm

    I doubt any one here thinks “Huh! I’ll vote ‘yes’ for marriage equality and that’ll fix every bit of discrimination the homosexual community faces.”

    Hmmm. This is what TPOF said …

    It is only never ending because the forces of ugly religion (as opposed to nice religion) are so obsessed with holding back the tide of history. When we get Marriage Equality it will be over. No more whinging; real issues can be dealt with. Note that this is not an issue in any political party other than the Liberals.

  10. GG

    > “I’m happy to be a hard centre.”

    From what I recall of the polling, a substantial and increasing majority want SSM legalised.

    That looks to me like the political centre on this issue.

  11. Player One

    zoomster @ #557 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 6:57 pm

    I doubt any one here thinks “Huh! I’ll vote ‘yes’ for marriage equality and that’ll fix every bit of discrimination the homosexual community faces.”

    Hmmm. This is what TPOF said …

    It is only never ending because the forces of ugly religion (as opposed to nice religion) are so obsessed with holding back the tide of history. When we get Marriage Equality it will be over. No more whinging; real issues can be dealt with. Note that this is not an issue in any political party other than the Liberals.
    __________________________________________________________
    And this is the IT that TPOF was commenting on:

    GG

    Yet, we have this never ending whingeing about equal opportunity for SSM.

  12. Zoomster

    You have my sympathy in that P1 does what so many complain of him/her doing: taking something completely out of context and then using that to beat up another poster.

  13. Player One @ #551 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 4:43 pm

    cud chewer @ #540 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 6:27 pm

    P1,

    For once I agree with you. The battler over SSM is really about the continuation of a war against gay people by religious zealots.

    Hmm. You claim to agree, but then say that. I guess your prejudice means you really can’t even see the problem here. Which means there is little point in arguing.

    He’s got a point.

    The “no” supporters have only touched on SSM in a cursory way during their campaigning. They’ve chosen instead to focus on slippery slope arguments, gender issues, male children being allowed to wear dresses to school, political correctness – when they really mean that there are one less legal and socially acceptable means of discrimination against LGBTIQ people, religious freedom – see explanation for political correctness, the safe schools program and other irrelevant nonsense.*

    They are running a proxy campaign against the laws and norms of our society catching up with the factual reality of human sexuality & gender, and against their loss of privilege relative to a weaker group in society.

    * my listing of proxy issues is probably not exhaustive

  14. They are running a proxy campaign against the laws and norms of our society catching up with the factual reality of human sexuality & gender, and against their loss of privilege relative to a weaker group in society.

    They are also running on outright lies and falsehoods, along with shibboleths and truthisms that have no basis in reality.

  15. grimace @ #567 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 7:41 pm

    Player One @ #551 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 4:43 pm

    cud chewer @ #540 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 6:27 pm

    P1,

    For once I agree with you. The battler over SSM is really about the continuation of a war against gay people by religious zealots.

    Hmm. You claim to agree, but then say that. I guess your prejudice means you really can’t even see the problem here. Which means there is little point in arguing.

    He’s got a point.

    The “no” supporters have only touched on SSM in a cursory way during their campaigning. They’ve chosen instead to focus on slippery slope arguments, gender issues, male children being allowed to wear dresses to school, political correctness – when they really mean that there are one less legal and socially acceptable means of discrimination against LGBTIQ people, religious freedom – see explanation for political correctness, the safe schools program and other irrelevant nonsense.*

    They are running a proxy campaign against the laws and norms of our society catching up with the factual reality of human sexuality & gender, and against their loss of privilege relative to a weaker group in society.

    * my listing of proxy issues is probably not exhaustive

    So many word, so much blah.

    So many commenters are just jumping on a soapbox to prove their moral virtue. The only proxy issue is the basic one that homosexuality is not illegal, people can couple if they desire, but many do not believe that actually means it is a marriage.

    I’m comfortable with such unions being formally recognised in law. But, it still ain’t a marriage.

  16. Another byelection in NSW

    Adrian Piccolli is going to resign his seat. Another shot for Shooters and Fishers.

    Pending byelections : Murray, Cootamundra, Blacktown.

  17. grimace @ #567 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 7:41 pm

    Player One @ #551 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 4:43 pm

    cud chewer @ #540 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 6:27 pm

    P1,

    For once I agree with you. The battler over SSM is really about the continuation of a war against gay people by religious zealots.

    Hmm. You claim to agree, but then say that. I guess your prejudice means you really can’t even see the problem here. Which means there is little point in arguing.

    He’s got a point.

    The “no” supporters have only touched on SSM in a cursory way during their campaigning.

    As have the “yes” supporters. If you are against it you are either a homophobe or a religious bigot.

    This is (one reason) why I am boycotting. It is the only sane response to the bigotry and prejudice exhibited by both sides. All because our parliament is desperate to avoid the issue.

  18. Speaking of WA secession, I just saw the ABC footage of the WA Liberal conference or “LoonCon” as they should promote it. Except for one young foggie probably angling for pre-selection, every other speaker looked 60+. “What will happen in my retirement??!!” you could almost hear them shrieking, now that the party they supported had successfully whiteanted the mining tax that might have provided for them. They are the tragic victims of their own greed, stupidity and short-sightedness. Liberal leaders have not gotten around to telling them that yet.

  19. Socrates:

    Good summary, and you can add that they have just spent the last decade in office here and did nothing to prepare for the end of said boom except perhaps pray that it continued. A wasted decade.

  20. On the ME opposition, TPOF said
    “It is only never ending because the forces of ugly religion (as opposed to nice religion) are so obsessed with holding back the tide of history.”

    I agree they are ugly, but I would be more specific. The uglies are generally insitutionalised religions and their office holders, more than practitioners in religious communities. Anything that undermines the traditional teaching of religions, they fear undermines the authority of the office holders. They fight to hang on to their control. And yes, that is a pretty ugly approach to humanity.

  21. Player One @ #571 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 7:52 pm

    grimace @ #567 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 7:41 pm

    Player One @ #551 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 4:43 pm

    cud chewer @ #540 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 6:27 pm

    P1,

    For once I agree with you. The battler over SSM is really about the continuation of a war against gay people by religious zealots.

    Hmm. You claim to agree, but then say that. I guess your prejudice means you really can’t even see the problem here. Which means there is little point in arguing.

    He’s got a point.

    The “no” supporters have only touched on SSM in a cursory way during their campaigning.

    As have the “yes” supporters. If you are against it you are either a homophobe or a religious bigot.

    This is (one reason) why I am boycotting. It is the only sane response to the bigotry and prejudice exhibited by both sides. All because our parliament is desperate to avoid the issue.

    I’ve actually come around to your viewpoint on this Poll.

    1. Laws should be changed by elected politicians.
    2. The process of 16 million people giving permission to others to conduct their lives is abhorrent.
    3. The process being undertaken is nothing more than a pop poll that has no credibility.
    4. the outcome is non-binding.

  22. Player One @ #571 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 5:52 pm

    grimace @ #567 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 7:41 pm

    Player One @ #551 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 4:43 pm

    cud chewer @ #540 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 6:27 pm

    As have the “yes” supporters. If you are against it you are either a homophobe or a religious bigot.

    This is (one reason) why I am boycotting. It is the only sane response to the bigotry and prejudice exhibited by both sides. All because our parliament is desperate to avoid the issue.

    Well, the truth hurts.

    The religious in our society have long enjoyed, and in many areas continue to enjoy special privileges. Fortunately, bit by bit, they are losing that privilege.

    As for the homophobes, ME impacts on nobody but the people directly involved. Our society mostly does not allow for arbitrary discrimination against others, arbitrary discrimination against someone based on their sexuality, chromosomes or condition of their genitals should be no different.

  23. confessions @ #574 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 5:56 pm

    Socrates:

    Good summary, and you can add that they have just spent the last decade in office here and did nothing to prepare for the end of said boom except perhaps pray that it continued. A wasted decade.

    I’m going to comit an act of high treason and heresy against the people of WA:
    It’s not the rest of Australia’s fault that we (WA) pissed the proceeds of the mining boom up against the wall.

    When the Barnett Government took office the state budget was in surplus and state debt was $3.6b. After 8 years of the Liberal & National Party, during the covering the period which was the biggest boom in the state’s history, the debt grew to an estimated $36.3b and is on its way to $40b.

    What is also forgotten is that the horizontal fiscal equalisation measures are based on lagging indicators, meaning that as the boom was kicking off and money was flowing into the WA treasury, WA was getting far more than its fair share. The current $0.34 in the dollar share is simply the other side of that.

    I’ll say it again:
    It’s not the rest of Australia’s fault that we (WA) pissed the proceeds of the mining boom up against the wall.

    The taxpayers of the rest of Australia should not be made to bail WA out for the profligate spending of the Barnett Liberal Government during the largest and longest boom in the state’s history. So much for the Liberals being the superior economic managers.

  24. Player One @ #571 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 7:52 pm

    grimace @ #567 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 7:41 pm

    Player One @ #551 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 4:43 pm

    cud chewer @ #540 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 6:27 pm

    P1,

    For once I agree with you. The battler over SSM is really about the continuation of a war against gay people by religious zealots.

    Hmm. You claim to agree, but then say that. I guess your prejudice means you really can’t even see the problem here. Which means there is little point in arguing.

    He’s got a point.

    The “no” supporters have only touched on SSM in a cursory way during their campaigning.

    As have the “yes” supporters. If you are against it you are either a homophobe or a religious bigot.

    This is (one reason) why I am boycotting. It is the only sane response to the bigotry and prejudice exhibited by both sides. All because our parliament is desperate to avoid the issue.

    It’s not the fault of Yes supporters that No supporters are overwhelmingly refusing to debate the issue and instead insisting on debating side-issues, other issues and non-issues. It’s also not necessarily a good idea to let such tactics go unchallenged and unrebutted.

    Implying that anything other than boycotting is not sane is insane if anything is. You might feel that boycotting is the only sane thing you can do, because of your sensitivities to people being called (and now and then over-called) out on their behaviour, but please don’t generalise that to other people.

    As for the “debate” whipped up by the plebiscite it has indeed been dreadful, but it is mainly the insistence of No supporters on stonewalling that has brought us to the point where this silly national vote is happening.

  25. The former NSW Education Minister, Adrian Piccoli, has quit politics, which is no surprise. Totally shafted by Gladys when he was dumped from the education portfolio and cabinet.
    A very good minister, who was fully supportive of Gonski and equally respected by teachers unions and parents alike. Has a genuine passion for education.
    A genuine loss to NSW political life. A national too. Who knew those guys could produce someone who had a clue.

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/former-education-minister-adrian-piccoli-quits-politics-to-take-up-job-at-unsw-20170902-gy9mnu.html

  26. Kevin Bonham @ #583 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 8:30 pm

    Player One @ #571 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 7:52 pm

    grimace @ #567 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 7:41 pm

    Player One @ #551 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 4:43 pm

    cud chewer @ #540 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 6:27 pm

    P1,

    For once I agree with you. The battler over SSM is really about the continuation of a war against gay people by religious zealots.

    Hmm. You claim to agree, but then say that. I guess your prejudice means you really can’t even see the problem here. Which means there is little point in arguing.

    He’s got a point.

    The “no” supporters have only touched on SSM in a cursory way during their campaigning.

    As have the “yes” supporters. If you are against it you are either a homophobe or a religious bigot.

    This is (one reason) why I am boycotting. It is the only sane response to the bigotry and prejudice exhibited by both sides. All because our parliament is desperate to avoid the issue.

    It’s not the fault of Yes supporters that No supporters are overwhelmingly refusing to debate the issue and instead insisting on debating side-issues, other issues and non-issues. It’s also not necessarily a good idea to let such tactics go unchallenged and unrebutted.

    Implying that anything other than boycotting is not sane is insane if anything is. You might feel that boycotting is the only sane thing you can do, because of your sensitivities to people being called (and now and then over-called) out on their behaviour, but please don’t generalise that to other people.

    As for the “debate” whipped up by the plebiscite it has indeed been dreadful, but it is mainly the insistence of No supporters on stonewalling that has brought us to the point where this silly national vote is happening.

    Yeah, from your totally biased position you’ve come to the conclusion that it’s all the other side’s fault.

    pathetic posturing, comrade!

  27. It’s not the fault of Yes supporters that No supporters are overwhelmingly refusing to debate the issue and instead insisting on debating side-issues, other issues and non-issues.

    Case in point Abbott who tweeted about meeting with a group of students to talk about “protecting families” or some such. From whom exactly? Are families of same sex couples not families?

    I thought the video footage of that Sky News presenter skewering Andrew Hastie on the issue of children raised in marriage where both parties were committed to each other even if they happened to be same sex couple quite illustrative of the hollowness of the ‘think of the children’ ‘traditional marriage’ religious crowd arguments.
    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/903465667831111680

  28. C@tmomma @ #581 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 6:28 pm

    I think Grimace has his tongue firmly planted in his cheek.

    No, Grimace is being absolutely serious. Which is not going to stop me from stirring up “us vs. the East” on the campaign trail, or fully supporting Shorten’s promise of $1.6b for the state in GST equalisation when I’m door knocking in the next election campaign.

  29. grimace:

    My apologies, I thought you were criticizing mine and Socrates’ comments about the Barnett govt intransigence on the local economy. 🙂

  30. Pericles lived in 450BC, and was one of the founders of the principles of the freedoms of a democratic state. He said on equality and tolerance

    ” No man is kept out of public office by the obscurity of his social standing because of his poverty, as long as he wishes to be of service to the state. And not only in our public life are we free and open, but a sense of freedom regulates our day-to-day life with each other.

    We do not flare up in anger at our neighbor if he does what he likes. And we do not show the kind of silent disapproval that causes pain in others, even though it is not a direct accusation. In our private affairs, then, we are tolerant and avoid giving offense.”

    Very relevant to the SSM debate, mind you Pericles only thought these freedoms should extend to men, not women.

  31. Player One @ #585 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 6:31 pm

    grimace @ #577 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 8:06 pm

    Well, the truth hurts.

    You believe I am hurt by your prejudice?

    Appalled, perhaps. But not hurt.

    I’ve never had cause to think you are a homophobe or religious bigot, despite our disagreements on energy policy P1. If you remember correctly, I defended your right to boycott the ME postal survey farce.

    If indeed you are either, I hope you are both offended an appalled, and that those emotions will one day cause you to reflect on your own behaviour with a view to making some move towards acceptance of others.

  32. If indeed you are either, I hope you are both offended an appalled, and that those emotions will one day cause you to reflect on your own behaviour with a view to making some move towards acceptance of others.

    LOL
    As if this would carry any weight with the Malcolm Roberts of PB.

  33. Henry – I know I’m prejudiced, but I really get the impression that Gladys isn’t up to it. Does anyone know when we might get another state poll?

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