Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

The public evenly divided on dual citizens and One Nation Senators in burqas in federal parliament, with little change on voting behaviour.

No change to Labor’s 53-47 lead on two-party preferred from Essential Research this week, with the Coalition steady at 37% on the primary vote, Labor down one to 36%, Greens up one to 10% and One Nation steady on 8%. Other questions find an even split of opinion on whether dual citizens should be allowed to serve in parliament, with 41% for yes and 40% for no, and identical results for a question on whether the affected ministers should stand down. Fifty-nine per cent support a “citizenship audit” of parliamentarians, with 25% opposed. Pauline Hanson’s burqa stunt drew 39% approval and 38% disapproval. Forty per cent deemed the tax system fair compared with 51% for not fair, with majorities agreeing that corporations and “some wealthy people” don’t pay their fair share. Respondents were hard pressed to separate the last four prime ministerships as best/least bad, but with the order of preference running Rudd, Turnbull, Gillard, Abbott. This week’s survey was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1027, with the voting intention numbers being a combined result including last week’s survey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,196 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. C@t:

    I can absolutely believe the extent the Libs will go to to win votes. Rick Wilson is out and about here spruiking the benefits of an NBN that is second rate and ineffective.

  2. Switzer is variable, some of his programs, and columns for they matter are a good discussion of issues from a right perspective, then others are one way partisanship.
    It would have been good to keep Green, but put Switzer on at another time.

  3. I agree with Alias about Tom Switzer. He had interesting guests and held interesting politics. He’s not a shill like the IPA types who infest “The Drum” or the Miranda Devines and Andrew Dolts of the media landscape. Same goes for Amanda Vanstone and even Michael Duffy before her. Sure, their politics are recognisable and you take that into account.

    I don’t mind people being right wing, just when they lie, disinform, bully and confuse to advance their cause, rather than try to make a case for their viewpoint or just discuss matters of interest. When I read Piers Ackerman or Andrew Bolt (rarely, especially since they disappeared between the paywall), I get the impression that they would shout me down and loudly condemn me as stupid, wicked, a communist, idiot and a traitor were I to engage the in conversation about, say, statues, terrorism or unions. I never got that impression with Tom Switzer or Amanda Vanstone.

  4. Steve777

    When I read Piers Ackerman or Andrew Bolt (rarely, especially since they disappeared between the paywall), I get the impression that they would shout me down and loudly condemn me as stupid, wicked, a communist, idiot and a traitor were I to engage the in conversation about, say, statues, terrorism or unions.

    ___________________________________________

    Not to mention accusing you of denying them their freedom of speech if you object to being abused.

  5. Player One @ #1094 Friday, September 1st, 2017 – 3:14 pm

    cud chewer @ #1087 Friday, September 1st, 2017 – 4:52 pm

    What P1 needs to get through his/her thick skull is that if we want a lot more solar then we can have it, fairly quickly.

    Hmm. Let’s look at VE’s data again … the best we have ever done was in 2015 – 174 MW. Presumably this was an exceptional year because we have never done that well either before or since. But we need about 30,000 MW. So that’s 172 years. Of course, that doesn’t all need to be solar, so let’s be generous – 100 years?

    Am I being too optimistic?

    You’re a bit off there P1. Australia has just passed 6 GWH of installed rooftop PV capacity. WA alone has just under 800 MW of rooftop PV capacity.

  8. confessions @ #1153 Friday, September 1st, 2017 – 8:39 pm

    C@t:

    I can absolutely believe the extent the Libs will go to to win votes. Rick Wilson is out and about here spruiking the benefits of an NBN that is second rate and ineffective.

    What else has the Coalition got?

    * A B Grade Gonski
    * A B Grade ‘Renewable Energy’ project = Snowy 2.0
    * A B Grade NBN
    * A Z Grade NDIS

    The only thing they do well is abuse people.

  10. “Not to mention accusing you of denying them their freedom of speech if you object to being abused.”

    That’s one thing I can’t get about the right, they are so precious about criticism.
    They might be told their opinion is racist or homophobic and they shrivel up, shed a tear and complain about being bullied.
    They they want to shutdown speech that is critical to them.

  11. Sorry I should say I don’t find Switzer to be rabid but that faint pleasant surprise is only an indication of how far to the right media are in this country. When did they ever have a full roundtable discussion of all Labor politicians? Because that is the kind of thing I’m talking about, not shock-jockery. Almost worse by virtue of being more insidious really, as he would paint himself as intellectually neutral but then embed bias into the show through the choice of guests and topics

  12. That’s one thing I can’t get about the right, they are so precious about criticism.

    I just thought it was a tactic designed to stifle valid criticism and not let it get a foothold in the debate.

  13. I prefer Saturday Extra and did even when Green was on Sunday. I find Doogue to be an outstanding broadcaster who always seeks depth, and I have to say I couldn’t tell you from listening to her what way she might vote!

  14. Andrew Tillett

    A campaign to oust Financial Services Minister Kelly O’Dwyer from Parliament has intensified, with polling being commissioned to gauge voter support for former treasurer Peter Costello to reclaim his old seat and become prime minister.

    Mr Costello, who has embraced corporate life, has made clear he is not interested in a political comeback but that has not stopped Ms O’Dwyer’s enemies trying to exploit his status as a respected party elder and minister.

    Voters in Higgins are being telephoned to canvass their views on whether they preferred Mr Costello or Malcolm Turnbull as Liberal leader. Ms O’Dwyer declined to comment on the poll on Friday night.

    Ms O’Dwyer, a former staffer to Mr Costello who replaced him as MP for Higgins after he retired in 2009, has been targeted by a small but vocal group of wealthy local constituents and dissident Liberals unhappy over the government’s changes to superannuation.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/peter-for-pm-enemies-of-kelly-odwyer-hold-out-hope-for-costello-comeback-20170901-gy932y#ixzz4rQNTGOgM
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  17. Steve777 @ #1127 Friday, September 1st, 2017 – 5:33 pm

    John Reidy @6:03PM: “Labor tells govt on the CET: ‘We’re here to help’
    Labor will not rule out backing a clean energy target that incorporates so-called clean coal to help the government win backbench support for the policy.”

    Labor might need to make some compromises to help get something rather than nothing up for energy policy and climate policy, but with the Government beholden to climate-denying coal fetishists, I don’t think that’s possible. I don’t think the right will accept anything beyond token gestures and worse, will try to bind future Governments to it. On no account should Labor accept anything like that.

    I think it likely that we’ll have to make do without an energy or climate policy until the adults can take charge after this lot are kicked out.

    It’s much more likely a clever wedge from Labor. Shorten will be just far enough away that Brian Trumble will be a couple of millimeters short of being able to reach his position at full stretch. While all of this is going on the rest of us will be watching the RWNJ’s tear Brian apart.

  18. “That’s one thing I can’t get about the right, they are so precious about criticism.
    They might be told their opinion is racist or homophobic and they shrivel up, shed a tear and complain about being bullied.

    They they want to shutdown speech that is critical to them.”

    The Right are the ones who bully, abuse, who practice class warfare. They will happily call their opponents Communists(1), thugs, opponents of free speech, traitors, criminals(2), accuse them of wanting to abuse children(3) and regard that as robust discussion. But for someone on the left or centre to call someone like Dutton a proto fascist (which is what he is, and who will attain full blown status given the right circumstances) and imagine the furore.

    Notes:
    1. Often “Socialists” these days, but that’s a swear word in their lexicon
    2. Attacks on Bill Shorten and Julia Gillard
    3. Comments by opponents of Marriage equality

  20. “It’s much more likely a clever wedge from Labor. Shorten will be just far enough away that Brian Trumble will be a couple of millimeters short of being able to reach his position at full stretch.”
    Probably true Grimace, though these days in energy, the coalition appear to wedge themselves.
    Labor could be honestly bipartisan, meet them more than half way, and they would still collapse in a wedge.

  21. Putin at ‘it’ –

    MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on Friday that the tense standoff between North Korea and the United States was on the verge of large-scale conflict and said it was a mistake to try to pressure Pyongyang over its nuclear missile program.

    Putin, who is due to attend a summit of the BRICS nations in China next week, wrote in an article published on the Kremlin’s web site ahead of his trip that he favored negotiations with North Korea instead.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-putin/putin-warns-north-korea-situation-on-verge-of-large-scale-conflict-idUSKCN1BC470

  22. John Reidy @ #1170 Friday, September 1st, 2017 – 7:46 pm

    “It’s much more likely a clever wedge from Labor. Shorten will be just far enough away that Brian Trumble will be a couple of millimeters short of being able to reach his position at full stretch.”
    Probably true Grimace, though these days in energy, the coalition appear to wedge themselves.
    Labor could be honestly bipartisan, meet them more than half way, and they would still collapse in a wedge.

    You’re absolutely right JR, there is nothing clever about this wedge and anyone with half a brain would have seen it coming a mile off.

    Ratsak @ 1147 is right, this is another problem that Brian has actively created.

  24. grimace @ #1155 Friday, September 1st, 2017 – 8:58 pm

    You’re a bit off there P1. Australia has just passed 6 GWH of installed rooftop PV capacity. WA alone has just under 800 MW of rooftop PV capacity.

    So, are we back to talking rooftop PV, which is very definitely not growing exponentially? Or are we back to talking large scale PV, which is also not growing exponentially?

    I wish you people would get your story straight.

  25. grimace,

    My point about the current data is that it isn’t particularly predictive. All it does tell you is how responsive the market is to policy. What matters is what the physical/technical constraints there are to growth.

    P1 hasn’t grasped that there are effectively no physical/technical constraints to growth. We are a pimple on the backside of the world solar market.

  26. Player One @ #1174 Friday, September 1st, 2017 – 8:02 pm

    grimace @ #1155 Friday, September 1st, 2017 – 8:58 pm

    You’re a bit off there P1. Australia has just passed 6 GWH of installed rooftop PV capacity. WA alone has just under 800 MW of rooftop PV capacity.

    So, are we back to talking rooftop PV, which is very definitely not growing exponentially? Or are we back to talking large scale PV, which is also not growing exponentially?

    I wish you people would get your story straight.

    Where have I ever said it was growing exponentially?

    I accept that rooftop PV was growing exponentially in the past (say the point 100MW to 1,000MW), its clearly ridiculous to say that it’s growing exponentially now. It’s going to take far longer to from 6GW to 60GW, *if* in the short or medium term it ever does, than it took to go from 100MW to 1GW.

  29. cud chewer @ #1087 Friday, September 1st, 2017 – 2:52 pm

    I think all the data shows is that the market responds strongly to policy.

    What P1 needs to get through his/her thick skull is that if we want a lot more solar then we can have it, fairly quickly.

    One of Ps bullshir assumptions has been all along that solar cannot be scaled fast enough. This is bullshit. It has nothing to do with extrapolating curves. It has everything to do with the engineering. The simplicity of construction of a solar farm and the huge manufacturing capability already built up for the panels themselves.

    I apologise if I came across as disputing your point, it was my intention to call P1 out on their ridiculous assertion about the amount of PV in Australia.

    I’ve spoken with several manufacturers and there is no doubt whatsoever in my mind that in the space of a couple of years they could easily supply enough panels to cover 100% of Australia’s daytime energy requirements. The first few GW could be here in about 3 months, delivered to the port in China 60 days after receipt of the deposit and about a month to sail here and arrive at a warehouse.

  30. I’ve spoken with several manufacturers and there is no doubt whatsoever in my mind that in the space of a couple of years they could easily supply enough panels to cover 100% of Australia’s daytime energy requirements. The first few GW could be here in about 3 months, delivered to the port in China 60 days after receipt of the deposit and about a month to sail here and arrive at a warehouse.

    And that’s exactly the information I’ve been given.

  32. grimace @ #1179 Friday, September 1st, 2017 – 10:19 pm

    I’ve spoken with several manufacturers and there is no doubt whatsoever in my mind that in the space of a couple of years they could easily supply enough panels to cover 100% of Australia’s daytime energy requirements. The first few GW could be here in about 3 months, delivered to the port in China 60 days after receipt of the deposit and about a month to sail here and arrive at a warehouse.

    My bridge trading mates tell me they have a great deal you may be interested in.

  43. And when was this not going to be so …

    The UK must not allow itself to be “blackmailed” by the EU over its Brexit settlement bill, the International Trade Secretary Liam Fox has said.

    Talks on the final settlement should begin as soon as possible “because that’s good for business”, he added.

    EU negotiator Michel Barnier has said trade talks are still “quite far” away.

    Both he and UK Brexit Secretary David Davis made clear on Thursday that the size of the UK’s Brexit “divorce bill” remained a sticking point in talks.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-41119870

    Failure to understand reality from Day 1.

  45. A company name familiar in the ‘detention centre’ context –

    G4S has suspended nine members of staff from an immigration removal centre near Gatwick Airport, following a BBC Panorama undercover investigation.

    The programme says it has covert footage recorded at Brook House showing officers “mocking, abusing and assaulting” people being held there.

    It says it has seen “widespread self-harm and attempted suicides” in the centre, and that drug use is “rife”.

    G4S said it is aware of the claims and “immediately” began an investigation.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-41121692

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