Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

The public evenly divided on dual citizens and One Nation Senators in burqas in federal parliament, with little change on voting behaviour.

No change to Labor’s 53-47 lead on two-party preferred from Essential Research this week, with the Coalition steady at 37% on the primary vote, Labor down one to 36%, Greens up one to 10% and One Nation steady on 8%. Other questions find an even split of opinion on whether dual citizens should be allowed to serve in parliament, with 41% for yes and 40% for no, and identical results for a question on whether the affected ministers should stand down. Fifty-nine per cent support a “citizenship audit” of parliamentarians, with 25% opposed. Pauline Hanson’s burqa stunt drew 39% approval and 38% disapproval. Forty per cent deemed the tax system fair compared with 51% for not fair, with majorities agreeing that corporations and “some wealthy people” don’t pay their fair share. Respondents were hard pressed to separate the last four prime ministerships as best/least bad, but with the order of preference running Rudd, Turnbull, Gillard, Abbott. This week’s survey was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1027, with the voting intention numbers being a combined result including last week’s survey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,196 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Internet Australia @internetAUS
    Poor quality broadband will hamper economic and social development in regional Australia for many years to come.

    Pascal @pascalg15
    Has anyone seen this before? A FttN cabinet with a portable electricity generator attached. Dear oh dear #NBN #fraudband @crikey_news
    Minerals Council spruiks nuclear power as affordable, as market for nuclear power crashes:

    Peak stupidity: Build a few more wind farms and guess what might happen to output from wind turbines? My guess is up

  2. Thanks that is a good article by Murphy, focused on energy which is fine, she didn’t cut them any slack.
    I was thinking of Coorey’s article this morning , where Labor help the government, specifically Turnbull, in accepting a CET with a high benchmark, only for the government to respond:

    “But Mr Butler’s goodwill was not reciprocated. Instead, the government leapt down his throat after he admitted that Labor, when last in government, allowed Australia’s natural gas reserves to be locked up by exporters, mindful there would be a “price impact” on domestic gas.”

    I was wondering about their motivation, apart from the obvious: an incapable, embattled government. And I think they see this move by Labor as a sign of weakness on their part. They believe all of the anti-renewables propaganda, repeated again today in the GG, how the root cause of energy prices is the RET.
    They actually think Finkel’s CET is a get out of jail card for Labor because any sort of emissions scheme is toxic.

    Labor tells govt on the CET: ‘We’re here to help’
    Labor will not rule out backing a clean energy target that incorporates so-called clean coal to help the government win backbench support for the policy.


    This has been a constant for the Abbott/Turnbull governments. Ministers have too frequently been prepared to criticise the courts and portray the legal system as an inconvenient obstacle to the smooth running of their business rather than an essential bulwark against executive excess.

    The miscreants include the Attorney-General George Brandis, who attacked his own solicitor-general for not doing his bidding, tried to circumscribe his independence and ultimately drove him from office, while publicly undermining the head of the Human Rights Commission and trying to force her out too.

    Tony Abbott has a famous disregard for the separation of powers, but he is best left alone. His urbane faux doppelganger, the current Prime Minister, overstepped gloriously during the recent citizenship debacle when he told Parliament how the High Court will rule on Barnaby Joyce’s case. He knows how egregious an error that was, but he apparently doesn’t care because he hasn’t retracted it.

    The same government has been assiduous in its pursuit of the extension of executive power. In national security and immigration (which it treats as the same thing), this has been non-stop. One random example: Dutton now has the legislated sole discretion to determine whether a particular region of any country is experiencing conditions such that a refugee’s fear of being persecuted there is genuinely felt. He can thus effectively change the definition of a refugee under the Refugee Convention.

    The Immigration Minister has myriad other personal powers and discretions. He stands as legal guardian to many refugees; he makes decisions as to the national interest, on national security, about the intentions, desires, hopes and dreams of individuals. And he determines their physical fate.

    (His) bias, in the form of his jaundiced opinion of anyone who seeks refugee status under Australian law, reflected in his gratuitous insult to the legal profession which dares assist them as is our right and responsibility, arises not from fact but ignorant bigotry. He has the right to be a bigot, but his exercise of that right disqualifies him from performing the precious responsibility for human lives which he so carelessly wields.

  4. Tony Abbott warns teaching more indigenous history in primary schools would be a “capitulation to the Left”

    What bullshite. This man makes a big deal of visiting aboriginal communities every year, but holds their history in contempt?

  5. Tony Abbott warns teaching more indigenous history in primary schools would be a “capitulation to the Left”

    I think Tony would be quite disappointed to learn that already there are many primary schools which already teach indigenous culture and to some extent, history in Australia. I was at an event recently for NAIDOC Week where kids from a local primary school sang songs in Noongar language as part of the welcome to country ceremony, something they were taught as part of the school curriculum.

  6. A bit off topic, but lack of regulation can be fatal

    “A 35-year-old woman has died in hospital two days after she suffered a cardiac arrest during a breast procedure at a Sydney beauty clinic.

    NSW Police say Jean Huang died on Friday after she was allegedly administered a local anaesthetic and breast fillers by Chinese tourist Jie Shao, 33, on Wednesday at a Chippendale salon.

    Jean Huang underwent the procedure at Chippendale’s Medi Beauty clinic.

    Shao faced Central Local Court on Thursday charged with causing reckless grievous bodily harm and using poison to endanger life.”

  7. Maybe Mutton Dutton should be doing his day job, rather than identity politics

    “Police are now considering further legal action.

    The 33-year-old is also being investigated by the Health Care Complaints Commission along with Yuegiong Fu who was allegedly working as a nurse during the procedure at the Medi Beauty Laser and Contour Clinic.

    The HCCC on Friday said neither Shao nor Fu were registered in Australia. “The commission is also assessing a complaint about a registered medical practitioner at the practice,” the commission said in a statement. Shao’s solicitor, Mary Underwood, on Thursday told the court her client was a graduate of a Canton medical university and a specialist in dermatology who had practised in China and Great Britain.

    She had arrived in Australia four or five days previously with two Chinese passports because her tourist visa — which expires in November — was attached to her old passport, Ms Underwood said.

    Shao was refused bail by magistrate Sharon Freund and the matter was adjourned to the same court on Tuesday.”

  8. lizzie:

    Very true re Abbott. Plus while ever there is an issue with which to play culture wars, you can bet he will find it and use it.

  9. In case you missed this in Crikey:

    Former PM Tony Abbott will be the star speaker at a climate sceptic think tank event in the UK next month, speaking on the topic “Daring to Doubt”. The Global Warming Policy Foundation holds an annual lecture in London, with attendance by invitation only.

  10. Yes, we have reached 1984, where ‘protecting’ means the opposite.

    With the “Protecting Vulnerable Workers Bill”, which comes before the senate next week, Turnbull is putting even more legislation to strip people of their workplace rights before the parliament, even though Australia’s present industrial relations laws are “not only in breach of international law, they are without peer among advanced economies with a tradition of civil liberty in oppressing the right to strike”, according to ABC’s Stephen Long.

    How else to explain the crueller details of that very “Protecting Vulnerable Workers” Bill, in which mockery of the labouring classes is referenced in the title? It is a Dickensian cartoon of faux-benevolence pretending at the prevention 7-11 style wage exploitation. The bill actually expands the government’s ABCC-style industrial thuggery into every workplace in Australia. First they came for the construction workers … then, should this bill in its present form pass, any worker at any workplace who took what should be legal industrial action could be coerced before the Fair Work Ombudsman to give testimony against themselves, their colleagues, their union. And failure to comply with a FWO notice can bring with it a $126,000 penalty. Unlike the rights provided actual accused criminals, there will be no right to silence.

    “Employers are using a wide array of strategies to drive down wages and conditions of employment, deunionise the work force and, over time, eliminate workplace bargaining,” Josh Bornstein says.

  11. I really don’t know if anyone linked to this yesterday, but if not, it’s well worth a listen:

    Why Turnbull cannot count on high court to save his government – Australian politics live podcast
    With the high court to decide on the legality of the same-sex marriage postal survey and the dual-citizenship cloud hanging over an increasing number of MPs, Katharine Murphy talks to constitutional law expert George Williams from the University of New South Wales. He says that traditionally the high court has been very clear about these issues and will likely declare ministers ineligible to stand. What can we learn from the precedents in the high court and how are its members likely to view these cases?

  12. John Reidy @6:03PM: “Labor tells govt on the CET: ‘We’re here to help’
    Labor will not rule out backing a clean energy target that incorporates so-called clean coal to help the government win backbench support for the policy.”

    Labor might need to make some compromises to help get something rather than nothing up for energy policy and climate policy, but with the Government beholden to climate-denying coal fetishists, I don’t think that’s possible. I don’t think the right will accept anything beyond token gestures and worse, will try to bind future Governments to it. On no account should Labor accept anything like that.

    I think it likely that we’ll have to make do without an energy or climate policy until the adults can take charge after this lot are kicked out.

  13. “Kenya Supreme Court declares Presidential election null and void.”

    That’s a big deal. There will almost certainly be violence and deaths.

  14. lizzie @ #1103 Friday, September 1st, 2017 – 5:37 pm


    Frankly, these 457 visas are just allowing corruption. IMV they should be discontinued.

    As with so much else that the Coalition turns it’s attention to, a scheme that Labor brought in has been bastardised by the Coalition so as to
    * Allow foreign worker exploitation
    * Weaken the pay and conditions, de facto, of the Australian workforce
    * Entrench Non-Unionised labour in Australia
    * Monetarily aggrandise their capitalist mates and donors
    And finally and most egregiously
    * Rip off our old folk by forcing them to have to meekly accept substandard work!

  15. As I recall, 457 visas were introduced by the Keating Government to allow companies to bring their managers or specialists over to Australia. It was never intended to import ordinary workers. Labor should wind up the scheme. Companies will just have to pay their staff decent wages. And here’s a radical idea – train them.

  16. Sorry, should clarify. Facebook pics don’t show here as images. You can still post fb pics, it’s just that only a link will appear not the image.

  17. I really cannot think of one program that Labor has brought in that the Coalition haven’t had their way with and left as a dried out husk of it’s former self.

    They’re in the process of doing it with the NDIS now. : (

  18. C@t:

    It’s always up to Labor govts to do the heavy lifting when it comes to the national interest. The reactionaries and the so-called conservatives always govern for the vested interests.

  19. Good riddance to Switzer, rated himself as a public intellectual and would piously quote JS Mill on ad hominem fallacy when fending off the angry tweets and texts that would flood in about the bias in his show. Somehow though it was always stacked with IPA Liberal Party luvvies whenever I tuned in. Such a poor replacement for Jonathon Green

  20. Ides:

    I was talking fed Labor, but in relation to Qld ALP, they would. Adani supposedly benefits Qld’s interests.

    Personally I think Adani is a stupid proposal but I don’t live in Qld and don’t have exposure to the optics there.

  21. confessions @ #1142 Friday, September 1st, 2017 – 7:54 pm


    It’s always up to Labor govts to do the heavy lifting when it comes to the national interest. The reactionaries and the so-called conservatives always govern for the vested interests.

    It’s a bummer! It truly is.

    I mean, you just can’t believe how cynically and opportunistically the Liberals try to win votes. Where I’m handing out HTVs, if the Liberal candidate spies a young mum coming to vote she lays it on with a trowel about how she’s a young mum too, and so only she can understand the needs of young mums…so vote for her! Not one damn word about the policies which favour developers that her party wants to implement! Just, in a microcosm, an example of how Liberals always just want to get themselves ahead by exploiting others.

  22. Very pleased to hear that right wing shill Switzer will no longer pollute the early Sunday AM airwaves ..I might tune in once more ..**smiles**

  23. zoidlord @ #1052 Friday, September 1st, 2017 – 2:32 pm

    As I said at the time, he’s laughable. But not funny. Seriously how big a moron do you need to be to be lecturing China in public? They’ll be more than aware that the pissant can’t even get his own party to do anything he wants. As if they’d take any notice of him. They’ll treat him as even more of an irrelevance than your standard Australian PM. Trumble is an idiot. Every day he does his level best to make sure even the dopiest tools in the country notice how big an idiot he is.

    Simon Katich @ #1081 Friday, September 1st, 2017 – 4:42 pm


    No. Turnbull is the problem. He is the one who is putting a nice frock and lipstick on a pig and pimping it to everyone saying – ignore the oinking, just focus on the dress.

    Turnbull became PM and made some deals in doing so. He became the clean face to the numpty far right. A perfect match – he gets to be PM, they keep power (and keep others out of power). All of the problems stem from that deal. All of the problems stem from one man wanting the top job over and above the good of the country. At a time when we needed leadership and strong policy direction we get a hollow specious man who’s wants have outweighed the needs of everyone else combined.

    Yeah this. A different Lib PM might be in an equal mess, but that’s just because they’d be as incompetent as Trumble. A non-moron as PM wouldn’t be facing even a tenth of the dramas Trumble does. Because unlike Brian they wouldn’t be actively creating problems.

  24. In India and South Africa, Adani is a byword for corruption. Why would we want them here?
    It wouldn’t surprise me if the outgoing Coalition Government left their successors a poison pill in respect if Adani, like the Zvictirian Liberals did with the unwanted East West link.

  25. I can’t quite believe the Switzer disdain. Yes he’s of the right but when I listened I was pleasantly surprised the extent to which he’s not rabid, even quite reasonable at times. Surely it’s worth listening to alternative points of view even if we don’t agree with them? And Switzer is very well versed in foreign affairs. His discussion either last week or the week before about the situation in Syria etc was enlightening.

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