Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

The public evenly divided on dual citizens and One Nation Senators in burqas in federal parliament, with little change on voting behaviour.

No change to Labor’s 53-47 lead on two-party preferred from Essential Research this week, with the Coalition steady at 37% on the primary vote, Labor down one to 36%, Greens up one to 10% and One Nation steady on 8%. Other questions find an even split of opinion on whether dual citizens should be allowed to serve in parliament, with 41% for yes and 40% for no, and identical results for a question on whether the affected ministers should stand down. Fifty-nine per cent support a “citizenship audit” of parliamentarians, with 25% opposed. Pauline Hanson’s burqa stunt drew 39% approval and 38% disapproval. Forty per cent deemed the tax system fair compared with 51% for not fair, with majorities agreeing that corporations and “some wealthy people” don’t pay their fair share. Respondents were hard pressed to separate the last four prime ministerships as best/least bad, but with the order of preference running Rudd, Turnbull, Gillard, Abbott. This week’s survey was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1027, with the voting intention numbers being a combined result including last week’s survey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,196 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Disappointing to think we live in a country where 39% think it’s OK to ridicule other Australian’s religion on the senate floor.

  2. @ a r – that’s not what the poll says.

    Make some educated distributions for the ‘2nd preference’ of people who voted for Rudd and Abbott.

    It’s just vote splitting. A large number of people who prefer Gillard to Turnbull would have voted Rudd. A comparatively smaller number of people who prefer Turnbull to Gillard voted for Abbott.

  3. From last thread …

    grimace @ #1242 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 3:07 pm

    The LCoE for this brain fart, even assuming 100% utilisation, is going to make it cost prohibitive and both the taxpayer & energy consumers are going to be on the hook for decades so that Brian Trumble can be PM for a few more weeks.

    The LCoS for pumped hydro is among the lowest of all storage technologies. And the LCoS of Snowy 2.0 will be lower than the average for pumped hydro installations.

    It doesn’t really make sense to talk about LCoE of storage schemes, but it you did then pumped hydro would be among the lowest for that as well, assuming the cost of the “E” is the same across all storage technologies. The LCoS of pumped hydro is so low that this would still be true even if you add in round trip losses and transmission losses.

    If this government can’t sell Snowy 2.0, it will be because they are a pack of incompetents who don’t really believe in anything other than burning coal, and not because Snowy 2.0 is intrinsically inefficient.

  4. Even Julia Gillard’s Labor government was preferred over Mr Abbott’s government, which ranked the worst by a majority of voters.

    I’d say this constant bullshit has a fair bit to do with it.

  5. I polled myself and the results are in.
    The Liberal/National Party Coalition is the worst government since federation.
    Turnbull rated the same as Abbott on 0% capable of leading the nation.
    Sample size = 1.
    Margin Of Error = 0.0%

  6. Abbott’s government was not merely the worst in the last decade. It was the worst in living memory and Abbott himself the worst PM we’ve had the misfortune to elect.

  7. The cost of energy is somewhat irrelevant for pumped hydro, as it’s value is dependent on the business model. Snowy 2.0 will have to compete with local storage -including other pumped hydro-located behind the meter.

  8. Simon, I noticed that 2pp 1% poll variation between William and the Guardian too.
    Perhaps one of the figures is this week’s result and the other a rolling two week average? At work, so can’t look further into it.

    Either way, both good.

  9. I think the most accurate headline would be:


  10. LNP ideology cost taxpayers more, pays workers less and enriches labour hire companies.

    Taxpayers are paying over the odds to hire temporary public servants who earn less than the going rate while recruitment firms reap big profits on the deals, the Senate has been told.

    Labour hire firms are cashing-in on the Coalition’s fixation with keeping public service staffing numbers low, supplying bureaucrats that cost taxpayers more than directly employed workers but who are earning up to 3 per cent less money.

    The Office of the Commonwealth Director Of Public Prosecutions has told a Senate committee how it pays a recruitment company more money to supply about 20 workers, than it would cost the CDPP to hire the bureaucrats itself.

    The public servants themselves are then paid about 3 per cent less than the men and women they work alongside each day.

  11. Anyway, I at least hope that Abbott gets the message from this poll. People still think his government was the worst of the last 10 years.

  12. Safety gone with the wind….

    David Batty @David_Batty
    Revealed: England’s fire services lose a quarter of safety officers since 2011

  13. Sara‏ @_sara_jade_ · 2h2 hours ago

    Turnbull re Snowy Hydro 2.0. Hand clench=anxiety knows he’s unconvincing.
    Gas/renewables/jobs nose face touches=lies.


  14. The pressure on older people can be immense. Adult children sometimes deny access to grandchildren if an elderly parent does not agree to be a guarantor or provide funds for a home deposit. Legal Aid family law divisions regularly provide advice to grandparents about gaining access to grandchildren. All too often, we hear of conversations that go like this: “Mum, if we can’t get funds to complete our deposit, and get a guarantor for our loan, we’ll have to move interstate. The other option is that we move in with you at your place. It’s too big for you since Dad died.”

    The boom in property prices has resulted in a spike in the numbers of adult children taking over an elderly parent’s home and refusing to move out. Vulnerable parents are unable to free themselves of an abusive son or daughter who insists on living rent-free. This is often compounded by physical or emotional abuse. One woman in her 80s was repeatedly beaten by her 45-year-old son who rejected her pleas for him to move out. He had access to his frail mother’s bank accounts, restricted her social activities and allowed her only a small amount of her pension.


    Two of Australia’s most prestigious Catholic schools have cautiously endorsed same-sex marriage in messages to parents, staff and students, directly rebuking recent statements from church leaders.

    While stopping short of advocating a “yes” vote, St Ignatius’ College in Sydney and Xavier College in Melbourne appealed to Pope Francis’ teachings on love, mercy and non-judgment, and urged the school community to dwell on their own consciences.

    The two Jesuit schools have educated generations of Australian politicians. St Ignatius’, which is independent of the Catholic system, is the alma mater of former prime minister Tony Abbott and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, while Opposition Leader Bill Shorten attended Xavier College.

    Father Chris Middleton, rector of Xavier College, called on the church to reflect on the overwhelming support for marriage equality among young people, and cited an Irish archbishop who called for the church to take “a reality check”.

  16. **Simon, I noticed that 2pp 1% poll variation between William and the Guardian too.
    Perhaps one of the figures is this week’s result and the other a rolling two week average?**
    The Guardian shows the same result this week as last week – 54-46. So its not the two week polling thing making the difference.

    I am sure I remember it being discussed on here but cant remember the conclusion – if any – reached.

  17. I was listening to Price and Bolt last night as I do for light entertainment at times. They were discussing the SSM survey and I think I got a perfect example of why they just don’t get it. Price was commenting on a group of pro SSM activists he had seen yesterday who were carrying banners that said, “WE JUST WANT EQUAL LOVE”. His response to that simple message was: “What the hell has that got to do with this?”

    I never phone in on their program, but I really felt like doing so on this occasion and saying to him how stupid he would look if he walked into a traditional wedding and asked what it had to do with love. Because that effectively is what he seemed to be saying about same sex marriages. Such ignorance.

  18. Re above link. The fact that the DT saw fit to pixilate an image of CANT with the ‘a’ upside down, considering the crap they regularly publish, is quite amazing.

  19. The Trump Organization faces further conflict with Scotland’s environment agency after its revised plans for a second golf course near Aberdeen were rejected as inadequate.

    Solicitors for the US president’s golf resort in Aberdeenshire said the company had dropped plans to use a stream to irrigate the course and to supply a man-made lagoon after the Scottish Environment Protection Agency logged formal objections to its proposals in July.

  20. Aldi Australia is pursuing legal action to stop the Transport Workers Union criticising it over wages and conditions in its supply chain, in a case that unions argue would dramatically limit freedom of speech.

    The German supermarket chain told the Federal Court on Tuesday it would continue to press its case despite failing to secure interim orders last week that would have censored social media, press releases and flyers in the union’s so-called “safe rates” campaign.

    The TWU and drivers have been protesting and picketing Aldi distribution centres in Adelaide, Fremantle and Sydney over the past fortnight, accusing the company of using low-cost transport contracts that pressure drivers to cut safety corners.

    Read more:
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  21. **The date on the Essential Report graph in the Grauniad is 15 August, hence 54-46 Labor.**
    I noticed that, but the headline that links to that page definitely says 29th Aug, and the web address says 29 Aug and the other questions asked match todays Essential.

  22. Shane Wright‏Verified account

    Peter Hendy .. fmr economic adviser to PM, fmr member for Eden-Monaro, gets 5 yr job as part-time Com Grants Commission member

  23. sonar @ #52 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 7:27 am

    I polled myself and the results are in.
    The Liberal/National Party Coalition is the worst government since federation.
    Turnbull rated the same as Abbott on 0% capable of leading the nation.
    Sample size = 1.
    Margin Of Error = 0.0%

    Sorry sonar, sample size of 1 implies an infinite sample variance and/or infiinite MoE.

    Sample size of 2, on the other hand…

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