BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor

Very slightly better news on the poll front this week for the Coalition, although Labor maintains its thumping lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The only poll this week was a slightly-less-bad-for-the-government result from Essential Research, which takes some of the edge off last week’s surge to Labor. The Coalition’s two gains on the seat projection consist of one apiece in Queensland and Western Australia. No new results on leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

636 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor”

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  1. Good Morning Bludgers : )
    I’m sure Malcolm will look at the Bludgertrack and conclude the Coalition have turned the corner and it’s onwards to victory at the next election! ; )

  2. With Obstruction Of Justice Charges Closing In, Trump Has A Major Meltdown

    In a ham-handed and amateur effort to smear the witness, Donald Trump is trying to discredit potential obstruction of justice charges against him by attacking former FBI Director James Comey.

    The President is worried about being impeached for obstructing justice. For someone who spent months claiming that there was nothing to the Russia investigation, Donald Trump spends a lot of time and energy trying to discredit the investigation and the witnesses. Never in the history of the country has the United States been able to watch a president come unglued in real time on social media.

  3. Trump’s Russia Nightmare Grows As Special Counsel Has A Draft Of His Comey Firing Letter

    Trump’s real reason for firing former FBI Director James Comey may already be known, as Special Counsel Robert Mueller has a draft of Trump’s letter firing Comey.

    The letter is Trump’s worst nightmare come to life because it goes to the real motive for Comey’s firing. If Mueller has evidence that can prove obstruction of justice, Trump is a dead president walking. Trump legal team has offered up dubious reasoning for why Comey’s firing was legal by suggesting that Trump has the power to hire and fire anyone while ignoring motive and that James Comey is not a reliable witness.

  4. ‘Art of the Deal’ ghostwriter: There’s no way Trump will give $1 million to Harvey victims

    “No way Trump donates $1m of own money to Harvey victims. He only promises to give. Never actually does,” said Schwartz on Twitter, according to the Hill.

    “Trump didn’t fit any model of human being I’d ever met. He was obsessed with publicity, and he didn’t care what you wrote,” said Schwartz in 2016. “It’s impossible to keep him focused on any topic, other than his own self-aggrandizement, for more than a few minutes.”

    “Lying is second nature to him,” he wrote. “More than anyone else I have ever met, Trump has the ability to convince himself that whatever he is saying at any given moment is true, or sort of true, or at least ought to be true.”

  5. Ex-DOJ lawyer: ‘I’ve never seen an administration so intent on pursuing an anti-civil rights agenda’

    “I have a severe case of whiplash, not just from being at the Justice Department, but also, quite honestly, from being a civil rights lawyer my whole life,” Gupta told the Post. “I just have never seen an administration in my lifetime that has been so intent on pursuing an anti-civil rights agenda.”

  6. The Republican Party has been taken over by religious nutjobs:

    Those who have been impacted by Hurricane Harvey in Texas and Louisiana are only beginning to see the way the flood waters have destroyed their homes. Many families tried to ride it out, only to be rescued when the rising waters forced them onto their roof. Thousands escaped with only their lives and the clothes on their backs, losing everything they own.

    But according to Secretary of State Rolando Pablos (R-TX), they don’t need any help. As Patheos reported, they just need a little more Jesus.

    Quebec’s Minister of International Relations Christine St-Pierre called Pablos to express her sorrow and condolences on behalf of the people of the Canadian province. She also offered equipment and manpower.

    Pablos turned it down. Instead he asked for “prayers from the people of Quebec,” the minister relayed.

  7. I do go on about this a bit, but if you’ve cottoned on yet that the trajectory of the democratic world is pointing straight at the necessary conditions for a return to totalitarianism, you should know that the last two institutions that provide any check on unrestricted executive power are the Church and the courts. The Church, sadly, is mostly now a cautionary tale with little remaining moral authority. So really it’s just the judges we’ll be finally looking to for protection of our ephemeral human rights, before all those jokes about the Border Force’s uniforms cease to be funny (or allowed).

    I assume this Michael Bradley article is paywalled

  8. Over the last 24hrs there’s been some ‘interesting’ views from the ‘Onion’ editorial staff in interviews with various ABC programs on ‘fake news’.

    Their view looks to be that any secondary report based on solely the published interpretation of a direct interview is ‘fake news’. e.g.

    Gupta told the Post from ‘Raw Story’.

    Sole source


    No way Trump donates $1m of own money to Harvey victims. He only promises to give. Never actually does,” said Schwartz on Twitter, according to the Hill

    Sole source

    Not necessarily “untrue” but not “News” either!

  9. Catmomma

    You can forget about a job at the ABC or BOM if you are going to keep highlighting coincidences in the weather. Especially if the coincidences all happen to occur in a particular and consistent direction of change.

  10. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Paul Bongiorno begins his article with ” Next week is shaping as a watershed for Malcolm Turnbull and his government. The parliament resumes, the latest Newspoll will be published and the High Court will consider two challenges to the voluntary postal survey on same-sex marriage. And if the past, indeed the recent past, is the best guide to the future, none of it will be good news for the prime minister.” He’s on a greasy poll, he says.
    The NSW government has asked police to investigate the leaking of “cabinet-in-confidence” documents about multibillion-dollar transport projects. Gladys is having her difficulties.
    Putin has warned that the standoff between North Korea and the United States is close to spilling into a large-scale conflict, and said it was a mistake to try to pressure Pyongyang into halting its nuclear missile programme.
    Mark Kenny tries to work out where the US stands on response to North Korea.
    David Speers says that Turnbull’s (third) visit to the Snowy Mountains and his (second) pow-wow with power companies provided plenty of good TV pictures this week, but what he really needs is an actual energy policy. Google.
    Nick O’Malley says that the SSM debate and survey was always going to get ugly.
    Michael Koziol reports that one of Australia’s leading Catholic thinkers has urged same-sex marriage should be legalised for the “common good”, arguing civil marriage cannot be seen as an instrument of the church. another crack appears.
    Anne Summers writes “There’s a new addition to the line-up of key Australian icons such as Phar Lap’s heart and Ned Kelly’s death mask: Tony Abbott’s ego.” This is one hell of a character assessment!
    Simon Cowan says that the government’s economic messaging needs courage but he wonders if Turnbull’s up to it.
    Crispin Hull examines Abbott’s latest essay and brands it as “delusional”. Another good character assessment!

  11. Section 2 . . .

    Paul Matthewson says SSM won’t end life as we know it.
    The specialist trauma counselling service contracted by national sexual assault hotline 1800 RESPECT has withdrawn from the service over concerns that private contractor Medibank Health Solutions could not guarantee confidentiality or quality of care. Where to now?
    The lawyer who led the first major review into widespread sexual and physical abuse in the Australian military says he was sacked after publicly pleading for justice for victims. Some nasty stuff here.
    Phil Coorey says that Labor has left the door open for an end to the energy wars. Google.
    Alan Hicks of the ETU on the rapacious margins energy retailers are inflicting upon us.
    Peter van Onselen tells the Liberals to mind their own business and get on with the job. He says they are a socialist version of what they condemn Shorten as representing. Google.
    This is a good article from Katharine Murphy on several fronts.
    Mike Seccombe writes about a senate inquiry that will consider how donations to political parties influence policy and how they’re hidden, calling on representatives from the biggest donors in the mining and banking industries to explain what they’re buying.
    A document listing the reasons why Tony Abbott thinks we should all vote “No” has been leaked to Rocky Dabschek.,10673
    Americans aren’t holding back when it comes to President Donald Trump. A new poll from Fox News found that many Americans think the 45th president of the United States is an unstable bully.

  12. Section 3 . . .

    Van Badham writes that Turnbull’s latest industrial relations bill expands the government’s thuggery into every workplace.
    David Wroe says that the military watchdog has made a rare public plea for soldiers and veterans to come forward with any information they have about possible war crimes committed by Australian troops in Afghanistan.
    Abbott will give the annual lecture to one of the world’s leading climate change sceptic think tanks, the Global Warming Policy Foundation in London. They deserve each other! Google.
    Arguments for and against voting for assisted dying legislation.
    Meanwhile a nationwide poll of 1,032 people conducted by Essential Research has found that 73% of Australians support voluntary assisted dying.
    The prominent Queensland barrister Sam Di Carlo has been charged with two counts of perjury after allegedly lying to the state’s corruption watchdog at a hearing. The 60-year-old is accused of lying to the Crime and Corruption Commission at an investigative hearing. Top effort!
    Members of Australia’s notorious white nationalist movement are preparing to thrust themselves into the heated debate around Australia Day, with moves to confront local councils that change the date.
    Adele Ferguson examines the collapse of Slater and Gordon.
    Ross Gittins dives down into productivity measurement and calls out the BCA.

  13. Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    Michael Fullilove tells us that as the US is doing less under Trump’s presidency, Australia should step up and contribute to a stable balance of power in Asia and the rest of the world.

    Yuk! John Shakespeare takes to the air with Abbott.

    More statue stuff from Alan Moir.

    Mark David has two new contributions.

    This one is hurtful.

    Broelman puts the boot into the AFL.

    And he suggests that Turnbull’s tenure of the prime ministership is rather fraught.

    Paul Zanetti and the Human Headline.

    This cartoon has upset quite a few in the US. But it does make a good point!×314
    Jon Kudelka’s view of the slippery slope argument on SSM.
    David Rowe has more fun at Trump’s expense.

    Ron Tandberg has Turnbull thinking nuclear.
    Simon Letch goes to Texas with Melania Trump.
    mark Knight and Dustin Martin’s contract signng ceremony.

  14. CTar, guytaur

    The extent to which politics has become a game of command and control within a toyalitarian slide is illustrated by the SA Liberals. Now even at state level they are raising terrorism as an “issue” with more powers needed. Apart from being a complete distraction from the state issues they fail to compete on, does anyone seriously think police powerlessness and the fight against terrorism are problems in Adelaide? What is the fear? Collingwood supporters?

    Read their nonsense”

    “The Counter Terrorism Action Plan includes:

    An audit of all public places and major event locations to check their ability to prevent terror attacks; (already done by Labor with bollards installed)
    Comprehensive training for South Australian Police Officers through the Defence Force and Australian Federal Police to ensure they are equipped to deal with potential terrorist incidents; (they already get trained)
    A pledge to legislate to provide police with greater latitude to use lethal force in the event of a terrorist incident; (the slide starts here)
    Preventing extremist inmates from radicalising and recruiting other prisoners in our metropolitan and regional prisons.” (We have no terrorist prisoners!)

    They must really think they will lose the March 2018 SA state election.

  15. Thanks BK
    Malky needs to get more juice out of the Snowy project. He should camp there on weekends. A horse wouldn’t go astray either.

  16. Socrates.

    I think its vital Labor starts doing push back on this agenda. Promoting a Bill of Rights would be a good way to counter the slippery slope.

    It worked for Labour in the UK

  17. Thanks BK. The NSW government sending the police to investigate whoever leaked cabinet documents about transport project scams highlights the abuse of power that is now so common. When courageous public servants expose that billions of dollars is being wasted on uneconomic freeway projects while the financiers and construction companies donate a few hundred k$ to political parties, the reaction is not to stop the projects and get ICAC to investigate the money flow. Instead we read this:

    “Mr Reardon took on notice a question from Dr Faruqi that up to 10 transport planners had been fired in the last three months.”

    I have become increasingly convinced that the planning and delivery of large freeway projects in Australia has become a major area of corruption at State and especially federal level. I have worked in the industry for thirty years and it has never been more toxic. Start the RC when Bill becomes PM.

  18. Guytaur
    I agree. Freedoms in Australia should be protected by convention. But those conventions were never written down in our constitution and are now being increasingly ignored. We must act to protect individual legal liberties in this country.

    Consider what Mahartir and now Razak did to freedom in Malaysia. It could happen here too.

  19. Soc

    CTar, guytaur

    The extent to which politics has become a game of command and control within a toyalitarian slide is illustrated by the SA Liberals.

    Don’t think I’ve got around to SA this morning (yet)!

  20. Morning all and thanks BK for today’s reading.

    Having read Bongiorno’s article makes me glad this week has been extremely busy and I’ve had next to no time to follow politics. Seems Turnbull has been seriously over-reaching with the hysteria.

  21. “Is Turnbull taking a shovel and doing a bit of midnight digging in the Snowy when he’s visiting?”

    There was an episode of Utopia recently that summed up the thinking. A group of ministers are holding shovels for a media photo op at the opening of a project in “northern Australia”. The ministers are all in practical bush clothes and hats. A minder rushes around and hides the price tags on the collars of the clothes.

  22. ‘“I believe what happened on November 8 is the enemy has literally sent out a frequency,” Taylor said, “and it agitated and took control, basically, of those who have their DNA that was turned over to the enemy. That’s what’s happening. The Illuminati, the Freemasons, all these people, their main goal is to change the DNA of man and they’re doing it through these frequencies.”

    Taylor claimed that he is getting “bombarded with emails” from Christians who are being isolated by their friends and families because of their support for Trump and that is “because their DNA is being controlled by the enemy.”’

  23. For those on twitter, I can recommend the latest @sethabramson mega thread of up to 200 consecutive tweets. In short, Trump’s real estate ventures in Russia and Putin’s duchessing are referenced, consolidated and exposed. The first one….

    (THREAD) Trump Tower Moscow sits at the heart the Trump-Russia scandal. This thread reveals the REAL story behind it. Please share widely.

  24. If you want some clarity about our energy crisis, stay away from politicians and the climate change battle still being waged by the lunatic fringe. Instead, check with the risk managers – the people who have the job of mitigating and insuring against the risks faced by corporate Australia.

    You’ll find no climate change denialists on the insurance side, only concern about large parts of Australia becoming uninsurable.

    If you accept what Summons and the other speakers presented to the risk managers – or even half of it – the photo-op of the Prime Minister and energy company chiefs was a farce.

    Sending letters telling consumers there are cheaper power plans if they bother to ask for them makes no difference to the underlying, worsening crisis. And this is just the simple, obvious stuff.

    The projections for the rise and rise of electric cars, for example, mean increased demands on the electricity grid, never mind what higher temperatures do to air conditioning use.

    Where politics fail, where the ratbag end of the coalition clings to a “clean coal” fantasy, lawyers may be at hand to force change.

    Among the many present and future threats raised by Minter Ellison special counsel Sarah Barker was the example of force majeure being declared during the South Australian blackout this year.

    Force majeure suggests there was an Act of God involved, that the extremely high winds toppling the powerlines could not be foreseen – but the way could be open for lawyers to claim that such extreme weather is no longer an Act of God, that it has indeed been predicted.

    The lawsuits have already started against the carbon giants. Barker suggests what will matter is not so much allegations that burning oil and coal has caused damage, but that Exxon and peers knew it, suppressed that knowledge for decades, encouraged “alternative facts” and thus delayed or prevented earlier action to prevent the damage.

    She believes Big Carbon eventually will have to settle multi-party action with a mega-settlement, as Big Tobacco did in the US.

  25. As a transport planner who has worked in government in the past (I would hate to be in Federal transport now) I can assure you that Utopia is scarily accurate in its portrayal of the inner workings of how various dubious ideas get advanced to funding too, not just the photo ops. Just take the latest episode, delete the name of the ministers pet scheme, insert “Snowy Hydro II” or “Northern Australia fund” and there you have it.

  26. Lizzie
    It is good if lawyers go after big carbon but IMO insufficient. We need laws. By analogy, the tobacco industry is still in operation here too.

  27. Thanks BK. One comment from Paul B’s article
    ‘attacks on Shorten forgets that Turnbull is as unpopular. In fact, as Turnbull himself admitted on The Project, Australians aren’t predisposed to think how wonderful politicians are. Labor will take a 6 to 8 percentage-point poll lead any day – entrenched as it appears to be – ahead of winning a beauty contest.’

  28. And our National Embarrasment cannot be silenced!

    “Former Australian prime minister Tony Abbott is to give the annual lecture to a London-based climate sceptic group.

    Abbott will give his speech, entitled Daring to Doubt, to the London-based Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) on 9 October.

    The GWPF is led by former UK chancellor Nigel Lawson, who recently incorrectly told the BBC the global temperature had “slightly declined” in the past decade. The BBC was heavily criticised for allowing Lawson to make factually inaccurate assertions unchallenged.

    Abbott becomes the second former Australian prime minister to be hosted by the GWPF. In 2013, John Howard – Abbott’s old boss and political mentor – delivered the annual address.

    In his speech, called One Religion is Enough, Howard also incorrectly claimed global warming had stalled and expressed deep scepticism about the possibility of an international agreement on climate change. Two years later, the Paris climate treaty was struck.

    Tony Abbott outlines policy ‘common sense’ in swipe at Turnbull

    Under Abbott’s leadership, Australia became something of a pariah on the issue of climate change. His government was known for its pro-coal and anti-climate action policies. Abbott infamously referred to climate science as “bullshit” and said coal was “good for humanity”.

  29. sprocket

    I posted it in the name of public health and safety.

    We should all be aware of these insidious attacks on our precious bodily fluids (and DNA). We should, like dtt, recognise the greatness of the Trumpmeister and heil — sorry, I meant ‘hail’ – his wonderfulness.

    Any other kind of thinking suggests your mind has already been infiltrated and you need to have it washed immediately.

  30. Experts Warn That 2018 Election Is In Peril From Russia Attack

    The midterms are in peril, election security experts warn, because little has been done to assess the impact, if any, on voting in at least 21 states targeted by Russian hackers, “according to interviews with nearly two dozen national security and state officials and election technology specialists.”

    If you thought the government was looking into the Russian hacking of our election, think again.

    On June 5th, a top secret NSA document obtained by The Intercept revealed that Russian hacking into the U.S. 2016 election “may have penetrated further into U.S. voting systems than was previously understood.”

  31. White House lawyers spiked Trump letter to Comey that was loaded with ‘long-simmering complaints’: report

    According to the Washington Post, Trump and top aide Stephen Miller had initially planned to fire Comey by sending him a multi-page letter that “enumerated Trump’s long-simmering complaints with Comey, according to people familiar with it, including Trump’s frustration that Comey was unwilling to say publicly that Trump was not personally under investigation in the FBI’s inquiry into Russian meddling in the 2016 election.”

    However, White House attorneys that reviewed the letter found parts of it problematic, and they instead recommended that the president ask for the input of Justice Department officials in writing a letter that would justify Comey’s termination.

  32. ‘Why did we elect such a president?’: Russian state TV mocks Trump for being Putin’s ‘baby’

    Even the Russians are getting in on the Trump-bashing train.

    According to journalist Julia Davis, a Russian politician and host blasted President Donald Trump on Russian state TV — and even poked fun at suspicions that he works at the behest of Russian president Vladimir Putin.

    “US doesn’t have an adequate President, just an elderly, barely competent, nervously weary, fussy showman,” Davis tweeted, translating the broadcast from Russian.

    “So why did we elect such a President?” the host replied, to audience applause.

    “Trump is a political infant, who is being severely swaddled,” the host continued, to which a female host replied, “and placed into geopolitical coffin.”

  33. Lizzie

    Instead, check with the risk managers – the people who have the job of mitigating and insuring against the risks faced by corporate Australia.

    There’s a nice quote from Rupert years ago in a communication to his employees that includes his thought that (WTTE) “it doesn’t matter if you believe climate change is happening or not, as a business, we must mitigate against it”.

  34. CTar1

    Yes, I vaguely remember that from Rupe.
    If only Australia were a business, we’d be a damn sight better at tackling climate change. (And don’t try to tell me Mal is a good businessman, we all know he ain’t.)

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