Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Back to normal from Newspoll after a blowout in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago.

Newspoll has Labor’s lead back at 53-47 after a 54-46 blowout a fortnight ago, with primary votes at 37% for the Coalition (up two), 38% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 8% for One Nation (down one). Both Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten are on 34% approval and 54% disapproval, which means one-point drops in both for Turnbull, and no change for Shorten. Oddly, Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has blow out to 46-29, from 43-33. Paywalled report from The Australian here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

631 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. #Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (+1) ALP 53 (-1) #auspol
    A tribute to the level of engagement of the average Australian punter.

  2. Maybe it was Macolm’s basketball prowess? Or the breakthrough in getting the Electricity Companies to send customers a letter? Or has Abbott’s chicken little routine faltered?

    The 1 point clawback by LNP will have them wetting their pants in Holt St.

  3. That’s as I expected. It seems during the sitting weeks of the parliament Coalition takes a hit and news cycle is unfavorable. During non sitting weeks they have more chance to control the agenda.

    Nevertheless I am happy to see Labor’s PV sitting at 38.

  4. #Newspoll Preferred PM: Turnbull 46 (+3) Shorten 29 (-4) #auspol
    Another tribute to the level of engagement of the average Australian punter.
    Turkeys voting for Christmas.

  5. Hmmm…

    Israeli media seem to confirm North Korea claim that it is a Hydrogen Bomb they have tested, at 100 kilotons (15 kilotons was the Hirsohima bomb).

  6. Gorkay King
    That’s as I expected. It seems during the sitting weeks of the parliament Coalition takes a hit and news cycle is unfavorable. During non sitting weeks they have more chance to control the agenda.

    Took the words out of my mouth. Hopefully MSM realise change within the MOE is statistically no change at all

  7. grimace @ #597 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 8:53 pm

    I’ve never had cause to think you are a homophobe or religious bigot, despite our disagreements on energy policy P1. If you remember correctly, I defended your right to boycott the ME postal survey farce.

    If indeed you are either, I hope you are both offended an appalled, and that those emotions will one day cause you to reflect on your own behaviour with a view to making some move towards acceptance of others.

    I am neither, so I am of course neither offended nor appalled.

  8. Based on various events of the past few weeks I’ve come to the conclusion that the Federal L/NP have written off WA, and will be attempting to save the furniture in the eastern states.

    This thought entered my mind when the cabinet only visited Liberal held seats on their recent tour of WA and gained momentum in my mind when it was clear that the cabinet would not be making a major announcement of new funds for WA, re-announcements that didn’t stand up to scrutiny not withstanding.

    I then saw Bill Shorten promise to deliver $1.6b of new infrastructure spending at the WA Labor Conference, with Morrison in the following Monday’s paper not only saying that it wouldn’t be matched, and they would be waiting for the results of an inquiry by the Productivity Commission about what to do. I doubt there is anyone in Australia that thinks that there will be material changes to the current GST arrangements – one look at the map and count of marginal seats in Australia tells you everything you need to know about the probability of any major change happening.

    Then, I saw the proposal by the state Liberals, backed by a crowd funding appeal, to launch a High Court case challenging the way in which the GST was distributed by the Commonwealth.

    Now, on the weekend, the state Liberal conference put forward a proposal to abolish the minimum wage, which I didn’t hear the outcome of, and have passed a motion in support of succession.

    All things being equal, the last three proposals would be quietly euthanised before seeing the light of day. However, the WA state Liberals have were reduced to 13 holdouts in the safest of safe seats in WA and clearly there are not enough level heads left to keep the crazies holding super safe seats under control.

    The above events combined lead me to agree with Briefly’s conclusion of a few days ago that the WA Liberals are in no condition to be fighting an election campaign.

    I’m increasingly confident in my prediction that Hasluck, Pearce and Swan have been written off by the L/NP and that Federal Labor is right to have Stirling and Canning in their sights as winnable at the next election.

    With the succession movement again rearing its ugly head, the Liberals will be wise to put in a furniture saving effort in Moore, Durack, Tagney, and Forrest.

    With the Labor tactics team playing up to the perception in WA that it is getting a raw deal on the GST and offering $1.6b towards rectifying perceptions of an unfair GST allocation, the refusal of the L/NP to match the Labor offer in some way, and their likely future incompetent handling of the politics of whatever the Productivity Commission recommends with regard to the distribution of the GST, a swing big enough to take out any of Moore, Durack, Tagney or Forrest is not out of the question.

    All four seats are on margins less than the 12.8% swing Labor achieved on a TPP basis in the state election and are considerably less than the 15.9% primary vote swing against the Liberal party.

    Three seats nominally lost due to a redistribution in SA and the ACT, three more written off in WA and two others that are otherwise reasonably safe that they’ll need to put a serious effort into. It’s an exciting time to be alive for Brian Trumble.

  9. Well fancy that!

    Offshoring by telcos, power and water operators raising risk of foreign meddling, top official reveals

    Australia’s telecommunications, electricity and water infrastructure is increasingly vulnerable to foreign spies and saboteurs as companies outsource work to offshore firms that are hard to monitor, a top government official has said.

    Andrew Warnes, who heads the critical infrastructure security branch of the Attorney-General’s Department, said one major Australian asset owner had inadvertently given an offshore supplier’s staff full access to their system without realising it, while another had found malicious code embedded in equipment delivered from overseas that led to a deluge of data exiting the asset.

    Mr Warnes, who is also head of the government’s Critical Infrastructure Centre, told the Informa Australia National Security Summit in Canberra that increased privatisation, outsourcing and offshoring, particularly in supply chains, was creating a poorly understood risk of foreign interference.

    “Given the shift in international investment profile, we really believe that Australia’s critical infrastructure is now more exposed than it’s ever been to the threat of sabotage, espionage and coercion,” he said.

    “The national security risks are real. And that’s the one thing I want people to take away and the one thing I spend a lot of time talking about. They are really out there. And they’re growing.”

    Critical infrastructure includes telecommunications, power, water, ports, transport, health and government services.

    While much of the attention had been focused on ownership – such as in high-profile cases in which the government has wrestled with foreign bids to buy critical infrastructure – this was “not the only way you can control something”.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/offshoring-by-telcos-power-and-water-operators-raising-risk-of-foreign-meddling-top-official-reveals-20170901-gy8tnk.html

  10. The Federal Government has been a complete joke in recent weeks. A poll of 53-47 to Labor translates to maybe 51-49 in an actual election. There’s always a swing to the Coalition. Labor should be much further ahead. Is no one paying attention? or do they believe what they read in the Daily Rupert?

    EDIT: whatever it is, replacing Shorten won’t help. It’s not time for Albo or anyone else.

  11. Theres no point in wasting Albo at this time.If Albo took over now and got beaten then 2 leaders would be spent.Shorten deserves another go.If Shorten loses then its Albos turn.Labor would be a laughing stock if they changed leaders now 53-47 in front in 19 Newspolls.Labor jumped ship when Rudd was still ahead and look what we ended up with.

  12. “Polling has been very clear for a long time now.

    The people want a Labor Govt led by someone other than Bill Shorten.”

    Polling suggests people want a Labor Govt full stop. Shorten or no Shorten Rex.

  13. What the hell. I come to check out the latest news poll and the discussion is about replacing Shorten. Thats some panic from a few people. What counts is the 2PP. Labor changing leaders would make both parties the same in voters eyes.

    Way to see the LNP get in front. Of course maybe thats the point of the discussion.

  14. cupidstunt @ #38 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 10:31 pm

    Theres no point in wasting Albo at this time.If Albo took over now and got beaten then 2 leaders would be spent.Shorten deserves another go.If Shorten loses then its Albos turn.Labor would be a laughing stock if they changed leaders now 53-47 in front in 19 Newspolls.Labor jumped ship when Rudd was still ahead and look what we ended up with.

    I doubt Bill Shorten would be as vengeful and traitorous as Rudd if he was replaced as leader.

  15. Ah maybe its a realisation that Mark Kenny saying the government is ruling for the party not the country is a killer line of the Press Gallery to take as the narrative. No recovering from that if the gallery starts saying it.

  16. cupidstunt @ #38 Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 10:31 pm

    Theres no point in wasting Albo at this time.If Albo took over now and got beaten then 2 leaders would be spent.Shorten deserves another go.If Shorten loses then its Albos turn.Labor would be a laughing stock if they changed leaders now 53-47 in front in 19 Newspolls.Labor jumped ship when Rudd was still ahead and look what we ended up with.

    Yes, it seems some here have still not learnt that bitter lesson.

  17. Meanwhile North Korea is a big worry.

    Latest from Mr Trump
    realDonaldTrump: South Korea is finding, as I have told them, that their talk of appeasement with North Korea will not work, they only understand one thing!

  18. Steve777 (Block)
    Sunday, September 3rd, 2017 – 10:25 pm
    Comment #33
    The Federal Government has been a complete joke in recent weeks. A poll of 53-47 to Labor translates to maybe 51-49 in an actual election. There’s always a swing to the Coalition. Labor should be much further ahead. Is no one paying attention? or do they believe what they read in the Daily Rupert?

    Steve

    Are you smoking the the same stuff as as Rex (or are you just taking the piss)?? There was a late swing TO Labor at the last election. So your assumption that 53-47 automatically becomes 51-49 in an election campaign has no basis. Shorten knows what he is doing. If he goes into the next campaign 53-47 in front the Liberals won’t know what hit them. Labor will win easily.

  19. Bemused

    Yes, it seems some here have still not learnt that bitter lesson.

    _______________________________________

    No Labor people here (or in the real world) are agitating for Shorten to go.

  20. confessions

    Ah sorry. One shortcoming of the new format. It looked like the discussion was just about Labor leadership. Thanks for the heads up.

    No need for what the hell then 🙂

  21. Fact check please.

    Fair enough. Now if I were a conservative, I wouldn’t need facts. I’d just shout what I said much louder and if that didn’t work up the volume and attack anyone who disagreed as a traitor, fool, communist or whatever.

    However, facts are important and I don’t have them to hand. But some of us here have long memories. Remember that stratospheric leads that Rudd had during 2007, narrowing to a comfortable victory but no landslide. Or Hayden in 1980. Or even the SMH page from 1983 posted this morning. The headline proclaimed Hawke’s lead narrowing in the leadup to the 1983 election. It’s often the way – predicted landslide to comfortable win, comfortable win to just squeaking through (1974, 2010), narrow wins to narrow losses (1980).

    Labor last scored 53 2PP in a real election in 1983, 54 in 1946: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Australian_federal_elections#House_of_Representatives_primary.2C_two-party_and_seat_results

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