Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

The latest Essential records no change on voting intention, be it for a federal election or a same-sex marriage survey.

The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll has Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, but provides only incomplete detail of the primary vote. The poll also records 59% in favour of same-sex marriage with 31% opposed, compared with 57% and 32% a fortnight ago, with 62% (down one) saying they will definitely “vote” in the survey if it survives the High Court challenge, and another 16% (down two) saying they will probably do so. Again, this skews towards the yes camp, with 74% of supporters rating themselves as definite compared with 58% of opponents.

On power prices, the poll finds 49% holding energy companies principally responsible, compared with 22% for the Turnbull government and 9% for “environmentalists pushing action on climate change”. It also finds 54% opposed to changing the date of Australia, with 26% in support, and 70% believing “believe everyone can celebrate on that day”, versus 18% against. Forty-two per cent disagree with changing inscriptions on public statues. The full report should be with us later today.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

497 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. zoidlord @ #397 Tuesday, September 5th, 2017 – 7:25 pm

    LNP also sexist in top of being discrimination:

    Ben Cubby @bencubby
    ·
    18m
    No Liberal women leading tickets in three of Sydney’s biggest councils

    This does not apply to the Central Coast Council Wards.

    2/5 Liberal tickets have a woman as the lead candidate. So 40%.

    Central Coast Council is 3rd biggest by number in NSW.

  2. When I think about it, I was a snob.

    Schoolfriends used to watch “Coronation Street” (we were never allowed to watch that program) and when Dr Zhivago became all the rage (we weren’t allowed to watch that, either), I dismissed it from the ‘worthwhile pile’. It wasn’t worth the angst at home.

    I was in much more trouble for reading “The Art of Love”, one of my grandmother’s books, with diagrammatic biology.

    I certainly didn’t realise what I missing out on.

  3. kezza2 @ #450 Tuesday, September 5th, 2017 – 9:07 pm

    Itza

    I’m not sure what you mean by “See how heart strings hold up.”

    It really pulled hard on mine. I couldn’t put it down but against that didn’t want it to stop. I found his writing (the first of his I’ve read) really beautiful, alarmingly vivid, and the love so true and honest it started to hurt. Two Irish immigrants surviving in the American Indian Wars and then the Civil War.

  4. Kevin Bonham @ #443 Tuesday, September 5th, 2017 – 6:58 pm

    grimace @ #439 Tuesday, September 5th, 2017 – 8:51 pm

    If you are interested in the YouGov poll, I took screenshots today as I completed the federal opinion poll:
    https://element47.box.com/s/74oht9dbg3ds667zzda8ancxs2j7lz9u

    There were a lot more questions unrelated to politics than normal after the main political study.

    Very interesting. Thanks for posting. Do you know if the parties always appear in the same order?

    No I don’t. If I remember I’ll do a screenshot again next time.

  5. daretotread, save the excel spreadsheet as a csv, then reopen it and save as a new speadsheet. Then highlight each column in turn and format the date ones as date/time with your preferred format.

  6. C@tmomma. Ignoring the text of the latest salvo (I have to, I lived through this 25 years ago when Qld debated gay law reform with the same arguments: oh how far we’ve come :/ ) , that photo is very very very white…. the white family in their white clothes almost disappear into the white background. I fear for the visibility of that poor infant! The parents might lose it in all that white!

  7. A somewhat surprising amount of cleavage being shown by the mother in that “Vote No” ad.

    Do they think this may lure some back to the ‘straight’ and narrow?

  8. A great read.

    The most arrogant people in Australia are business people and we’re sick of them

    How the worm – and the world – turns. When the Abbott government came to power just four years ago, it claimed its arrival signalled the “end of the age of entitlement”. Don’t laugh, it’s happening – but in the opposite way to what treasurer Joe Hockey had in mind.

    As Hockey saw it, the sense of entitlement we’d acquired, but which could no long be afforded, applied to the social needs of individuals and families.

    We saw the results of this attitude in Tony Abbott and Hockey’s first budget of 2014, which got an enormous thumbs-down from the public and the Senate, so that pretty much all that remains of the attack on unwarranted entitlement is the unending crusade by the government’s Don Quixote, Christian Porter, and his loyal Sancho, Alan Tudge, to root out the last welfare cheat.

    Not content with the grand stuff-up that was the “robodebt” use of unguided computers to collect amounts that may or may not have been overpaid, the pair are now hot on the trail of drug-taking welfare recipients.

    Drug testing isn’t cheap, so it’s likely the exercise will cost the taxpayer more than it saves. And drug care experts – who weren’t consulted – say addicts can’t be successfully coerced into treatment.

    Trouble is, successive governments have been cracking down on the crackdown on welfare cheats every year for decades, so there can’t be all that many of ’em left.

    Why do I get the feeling that cracking down on welfare cheating is, at best, what governments do when they want to be seen to be cutting their spending but aren’t game to.

    Or, at worst, when they want to exploit the popular delusion that we could all be paying less tax if it weren’t for the massive sums being siphoned off by dole bludgers and the like.

    Sorry, the people doing by far the most to keep welfare spending high and rising are known as age pensioners. And no one has a stronger sense of entitlement than an oldie fighting for the pension. “I’ve paid taxes all my life . . .”

    But though one of Aussies’ less attractive traits has been our proneness to “downwards envy” – the delusion that people worse-off than us are doing it easy – polling by the Essential organisation suggests it may be wearing off, replaced by disapproval of wealthier tax dodgers.

    Essential finds only 12 per cent of respondents (including 14 per cent of Coalition voters) are “bothered a lot” by “the feeling that some poor people don’t pay their fair share”, whereas 53 per cent (40 per cent of Coalition voters) are bothered a lot by “the feeling that some wealthy people don’t pay their fair share”.

    Ask whether they’re bothered a lot by the feeling that “some corporations” don’t pay their fair share, and disapproval shoots up to 60 per cent, including 51 per cent of Coalition voters.

    It’s a sign of the times. It has finally dawned on us that the people with the overweening sense of entitlement are our business people.

    They used not to be so arrogant, but more than three decades of neoliberal ideology – under which governments should do as little as possible to burden the private sector or restrict its freedom – have left business people convinced they’re demi-gods, the source of all goodness and justly entitled to our approbation and genuflection.

    They’re the source of all jobs, and thus entitled to have their every demand satisfied.

    Why should chief executives earn up to 300 times what their workers earn? Isn’t it obvious?

    Why should the chief executive’s package rise by 8 per cent while his workers’ wage rise is held down to 2 per cent because times are tough? Because I’ve just realised that Joe Blow over at XYZ Corp is getting more than me, and I’m better than him.

    Why should companies doing legal contortions to minimise the tax they pay, hesitate to demand a cut in the rate of company tax in the name of creating jobs?

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-most-arrogant-people-in-australia-are-business-people-and-were-sick-of-them-20170905-gyaxli.html

  9. What is funny is the L-NP lecturing the energy sector they are mostly responsible for making private. The supposedly better economic managers can’t quite manage an RET that would boost investment in the sector, increase competition, and drive down prices. Instead they want more coal that nobody wants to invest in. They may as well buy the sector back 🙂

  10. Copying into a brand new document seems to have worked!!!!!!
    Now i just have to restore all the rest of the dat (drop downs etc) -better than 750 dates

  11. Question @ #477 Tuesday, September 5th, 2017 – 11:07 pm

    What is funny is the L-NP lecturing the energy sector they are mostly responsible for making private. The supposedly better economic managers can’t quite manage an RET that would boost investment in the sector, increase competition, and drive down prices. Instead they want more coal that nobody wants to invest in.

    Yes, all got going in Victoria with the mad ideology of Kennettism.

  12. Thanks for the assistance bludgers

    Steve, Paaptse, Yabba, KJ, Taylor made. Much appreciated, if only the moral support to find a way through.
    Paapsse’s link at least made me understand it was a major glitch, not some think simple i had overlooked.

  13. forget about britain witness NZ only this month – bill is not a great leader in public – labor should be several more points ahead – i have said this since he took office and never had cause to change. he may win, but the result should not be close. i also worry about his skill in delivering the message on tax …

  14. Ghost has figures on a QLD state level Newspoll. Article not yet online.

    QLD State 2 Party Preferred: ALP 53 (+2) LNP 47 (-2)
    QLD State Primary Votes: ALP 37 (-1) LNP 34 (-6) ON 15 GRN 8 (0)
    QLD Palaszczuk ALP: Approve 41 (-3) Disapprove 46 (+4)
    QLD Nicholls LNP: Approve 29 (-2) Disapprove 45 (+9)
    QLD Preferred Premier: Palaszczuk ALP 43 (-1) Nicholls LNP 33 (+2)

  15. For those who follow the middle east there was huge news toady.

    The siege of Dier Ezzor is broken. Those guys held out surrounded by ISIS for three years.

    The implications for the ME and Syria are absolutely HUGE since it means that the Assad government has almost certainly regained control of the Euphrates River.

    While there remains the unresolved issue of Kurdistan and also the rebel province of Idlib, it would now seem probable that the rest of Syria is returned to the government control, although some guerilla action and terrorist attacks will presumably continue.

    The implications of this are still unclear, but it would seem that the Saudi funded Wahabi extremists (ISIS) have taken a hiding and essentially their efforts have failed. Turkey is a big player in Idlib where it is possible that the two sunni supported factions will come to blows (ie Saudi/Jordanian supported reels versus turkey supported rebels. turkey will probably win this one, given that the Saudi supported mob are on the run.

    What is clear is that Iran and Russia have gained much influence presumably at the expense of Saudi, Israel and the US.

  16. @Daretotread

    Momentum is definitely with Syrian government. I expect rebels to be reduced to a rump in Idlib province and Turkish proxity militias in N. Aleppo.

    Hard to see anyone joining the rebels when the writing is on the wall.

  17. If you got polled by ReachTEl tonight, no way they could turn it around that fast, let alone have any media run it. Would need at least a day to prepare the charts etc.

  18. Good result for Labor in Queensland. Not surprised with approval ratings. I think this day and age low approval ratings are normal for any politician outside honeymoon period.

  19. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll/one-nation-preference-flow-puts-queensland-labor-in-lead/news-story/98abc923682939630d244af287d03370

    One Nation preference flow puts Queensland Labor in lead
    The Australian
    12:00AM September 6, 2017
    Sarah Elks Queensland political reporter

    Annastacia Palaszczuk’s minority government is in a winning position ahead of the looming Queensland election but may still rely on the preference flows of One Nation voters to cling to power.

    The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows Labor has extended its lead over the Liberal National Party ahead of an election likely to be fought on a seat-by-seat basis in the regions and Brisbane’s ­fringes.

    http://cdn.thinglink.me/api/image/961620018049581058/1024/10/ see table, no paywall

  20. Gorkay
    Yes to the Qld comment and yes also to Syria comment.

    In Syria i expect Erdogan to eat humble pie and switch off his rebels to form some sort of federal system with semi independence for idlib. Same deal for the Kurds provided not the full Rojava.

    However the alliances are fluid and complex.

    One HUGE issue could be the Golan heights. After 50 years it would seem appropriate that thy either become fully part of Israle with all the residents given FULL citizenship and travel rights etc, or else it is returned to Syria with a peace keeping force of some kind. Not that Syria will be in a position to be aggressive towards Israel anytime in the next 50 years.

  21. Regarding the common “ALP should be further ahead commentary” here. From a historical assesment of polls I might agree, but there seems to be a new pattern emerging. Since Morgan (who provided most of the 60-40 polls people like to remember) departed, polls have become incredibly static, and the changes are a slow grind.

    It could be that the rise in the data mining type industries are driving that. Who knows? But perhaps this incredibly static picture is actually far more accurate? And the “narrowing” we are so used to is a thing of the past? Perhaps when the 2 most accurate polls at the last election keep telling us the ALP are 53-47 ahead, historically a good result at actual elections, that is far more hard boiled than when polls jumped around.

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