Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

The latest Essential records no change on voting intention, be it for a federal election or a same-sex marriage survey.

The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll has Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, but provides only incomplete detail of the primary vote. The poll also records 59% in favour of same-sex marriage with 31% opposed, compared with 57% and 32% a fortnight ago, with 62% (down one) saying they will definitely “vote” in the survey if it survives the High Court challenge, and another 16% (down two) saying they will probably do so. Again, this skews towards the yes camp, with 74% of supporters rating themselves as definite compared with 58% of opponents.

On power prices, the poll finds 49% holding energy companies principally responsible, compared with 22% for the Turnbull government and 9% for “environmentalists pushing action on climate change”. It also finds 54% opposed to changing the date of Australia, with 26% in support, and 70% believing “believe everyone can celebrate on that day”, versus 18% against. Forty-two per cent disagree with changing inscriptions on public statues. The full report should be with us later today.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

497 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. 26% support changing OZ day date, 54% opposed. That so many are so attached to meaningless arbitrary dates makes me lose faith in the intelligence of my fellow Australians. I would like some extra questions to drill down into the reasons for such attachments, such as “Are you a moron?”

  2. Australia Day developed its quasi-religious overtones when the celebration was set as 26 January in 1994. Before that it was celebrated as the last long weekend in January, so its significance as “Invasion Day” was easier to ignore

  3. Question

    Essential 53-47.
    26% support changing OZ day date, 54% opposed. That so many are so attached to meaningless arbitrary dates makes me lose faith in the intelligence of my fellow Australians. I would like some extra questions to drill down into the reasons for such attachments, such as “Are you a moron?”

    Your comment would indicate you care about a meaningless arbitrary date. Question; why for example; “Are you a moron?”

  4. Fred,
    I don’t care which day morons get to crack out their Australian flag beach towels and a case of beer. It means nothing to me. That is why, when people say they have a problem with the date, I have no problem changing it. Only a moron would.

    Are you one of those morons?

  5. Morning all. Is there some way we can get the ABC to Factcheck itself? Political opponents first called the new SA RAH hospital the most expensive building in the world (plainly false). Then they changed their lie to it being the most expensive building in Australia. Again false. The Australian parliament house cost $1 billion in 1980. That is equivalent to $4.1 billion today, almost double the RAH cost. Why does Aunty repeat this easily disproven lie?

  6. Meanwhile our illegitimate government continues in office. If Barnaby acts as PM, the term “acting” will never have been more accurate.

  7. South Korea Is Trying To Ignore Trump Because They Think He’s Nuts

    The South Koreans are trapped between an unstable North Korea with an accelerating nuclear program, and a US president who they think is nuts.

    “Opinion polls show South Koreans have one of the lowest rates of regard for Trump in the world and they don’t consider him to be a reasonable person,” Straub said. “In fact, they worry he’s kind of nuts, but they still want the alliance.”

    People are reminded on a daily basis of the chaos and instability the President causes at home, but he is also destabilizing US foreign policy. If America’s allies don’t believe that they have a stable partner that they can depend on, the US will no longer be a world leader.

  8. Cori Bernadi, professional politician, sounds distressed that some of the politicians, who he now counts as ‘under question’, he’s never heard of.

  9. Ctar

    The early starters in the ABC newsroom, mostly garduates, increasngly with YoumgLib connections, start their shift trawling The Australian for their copy.

    The Smear regularly published fake news, or spins stuff they get off the wires to fit the right wing Murdoch view of the world. The ABC early bulletins parrot.

    Hence with the latest Newspoll, which David Crowe spun as a ‘bounce back’ for LNP, had the ABC bulletins saying ‘the latest NewsPoll showing a bounce back for the government….”

  10. REVEALED: The Saudis buttered up Trump by giving him cheetah fur robes and a painting of himself

    Despite criticizing the government of Saudi Arabia while he was a presidential candidate in 2016, President Donald Trump has quickly warmed up to the top American Middle Eastern ally since taking office.

    The Daily Beast filed a Freedom of Information Act request to see the full inventory of gifts Trump received during his visit to Saudi Arabia, and it shows a concerted effort to bombard the president with valuable items to win over his favor.

    “The gifts range from the regal (‘Artwork featuring picture of President Trump’) to the martial (multiple swords, daggers, leather ammo holders and holsters), to the baroque (tiger and cheetah fur robes, and a dagger made of pure silver with a mother of pearl sheath),” reports the Daily Beast, which notes that Trump has received a total of 83 separate gifts from the Saudis this year.

  11. ‘Dumb and dangerous’: Analysts fear Trump will ruin vital US-South Korea alliance

    Donald Trump is playing into North Korea’s hands by turning on the South, accusing it of appeasement, snubbing its leader and threatening to end their trade deal in moves that analysts say risk weakening a decades-long alliance.

    That came after he said on Saturday he was considering pulling the United States out of its free trade pact with the South — an economic deal that analysts say underpins the breadth of the relationship between the two countries, which have been security allies for nearly 70 years.

    Trump’s unexpected attack on the country took many by surprise, and analysts say his undisciplined tweets were worsening the situation at a crisis moment.

  12. Okay, what kind of complete numbskull do you have to be to believe that everyone can celebrate on that day when this is in the news because some people said they couldn’t ?

    Like it’s fine you think the day shouldn’t be changed but gah, the logic required to say everyone can celebrate on that day in this context is just so obviously factually wrong that it causes me pain.

  13. 9 out of 15 Liberal MPs dumped at the 2016 election have been given government jobs, many on over $200k. I’m surprised with their skilld the private sector did not grab this talented lot?

    Whether eligible to enter parliament or not, I’m sure the PM would find Barnaby eligible for a similar future role. VC of New England University perhaps, recognising his intellect?

  14. Good Morning Bludgers : )
    I think there is a simple answer to the question about maintaining Australia Day on 26th of January.

    People use it to get one extra day on top of their annual holidays, to go to the beach, have a barbie, watch the cricket, mooch around, etc.

    I also reckon, if the question were asked, people would agree to having another Public Holiday to celebrate Multi Culti Australia Day, or whatever it is that Bill Shorten has proposed.

    So they can go to the beach, have a barbie, watch some sport, mooch around, etc. : )

  15. Posted with no comment cf The Daily TurdBurgler

    PETA Credlin has revealed her former boss Tony Abbott asked Royal Australian Air Force stewards and AFP officers to keep secret Malcolm Turnbull’s expletive-ridden attack on him after they witnessed the confrontation on board the Prime Minister’s VIP plane.

    Ms Credlin has confirmed on Sky News Mr Turnbull used the C-word, and had done so on board the VIP flight from Sydney to Canberra after The Australian’s star-studded 50th anniversary party.

    “In relation to that incident, when it occurred in the middle of 2014, I was asked by the then Prime Minister Tony Abbott to make sure that story never saw the light of day and to speak to our staff, the prime minister’s staff, who were privy (to it),” she told Sky host Andrew Bolt.

    “I know the prime minister, then Mr Abbott, spoke to the RAAF staff because unfortunately it was said in front of uniformed stewards and I know Mr Abbott also spoke to the AFP who were privy to the conversation.”

    Then-Prime Minister Tony Abbott during festivities for The Australian newspaper’s 50th celebration. Picture: Richard Dobson
    Ms Credlin, a political commentator on Sky News, was not listed on the Department of Defence manifest of the 12 passengers who travelled on the flight.

    Asked about the comment from Mr Turnbull’s spokesman that he did not use the c-word, Ms Credlin said she would treat the question seriously “because I think it’s serious when that sort of language is thrown around.”

    “I worked for Malcolm Turnbull. If he says he doesn’t use that language then I have to say it is wrong because he does. He certainly used it in the time I worked for him,” she said.

    Mr Abbott confirmed the incident but declined to discuss it. “I didn’t talk about it then and I’m certainly not going to talk about it now,” he said on 2GB.

    “I’m not going to go into the precise terminology that people use on different occasions, I think that most senior politicians can use pretty robust language.”

    Ms Credlin’s confirmation of the confrontation on the plane, following a boozy dinner, came after Foreign Minister Julie Bishop tried to deny it had occurred during an interview with Lisa Wilkinson on Channel Nine’s Today show.

    “No such conversation took place in my presence, I can only assume it didn’t happen and had the journalist contacted me about the story I would have told her that I didn’t hear such a conversation and as far as I’m concerned it didn’t happen,” she said.

    The Daily Telegraph has revealed one of the great untold clashes between the Liberal Party heavyweights unfolded aboard the plush, wood-panelled VIP plane heading to Canberra after The Australian newspaper’s 50th birthday party in Sydney on July 15, 2014.

    Fresh from socialising with Australia’s business and media elite, Mr Turnbull had sharp words for Mr Brandis on policy, and then let loose at Mr Abbott.

    At the end of the flight, as they were about to disembark, Mr Turnbull is said to have given Mr Abbott a blistering assessment of his prime ministership — telling him he was “hopeless” and accusing him of being a “disloyal c …”.

    Three sources on board the plane recalled the use of the C-word.

    Mr Abbott had just collected his bag from the plane’s prime minister’s suite and was standing with members of his staff and a federal police officer when the confrontation occurred.

    One source on board the flight, who declined to be named, described Mr Turnbull’s comments as “belligerent”.

    “Tony went in to get his bag from the PM’s suite and Malcolm badgered him in that corridor. That’s where it happened,” the source said.

    “It was Malcolm in full flight. Angry, bitter, (saying) you’re f … ing hopeless, you’re a ‘f … ing c …’, you should resign. He got quite close to his face.”

    Sources close to Mr Turnbull recalled a heated discussion over policy, possibly the Racial Discrimination Act, which the Abbott Government was unsuccessfully prosecuting at the time.”

  16. Catmomma
    A second holiday, great idea! Given the falling average hours worked per worker, it will make almost no difference to national productivity. One of the benefits of Liberal economic management 🙂
    Have a good day all.

  17. As predicted by astute bludgers, there are now ‘calls’ for up to 15 Labor MPs who have ‘questions to answer’, to reveal their proof of citizenship as their leader has done, according to ABC News and Corey Bernardi.

  18. This is the ABC article on Labor

    “Following that, the ABC requested similar documentation for 11 Labor MPs who have had questions raised about their citizenship.

    The request related to Opposition parliamentarians Susan Lamb, Tony Zappia, Justine Keay, Maria Vamvakinou, Katy Gallagher, David Feeney, Brendan O’Connor, Penny Wong, Doug Cameron, Brian Mitchell and Josh Wilson.

    But Labor has refused to release the documents, pointing to Mr Shorten’s statement yesterday.”

  19. Has the ABC requested a slew of documents from all the questionable Liberal MPs, like Julia Banks etc.?
    How about Ann Sudmalis? Are they letting her get away with her Dodgy Document as the last word on her Renunciation of British Citizenship?

  20. Good Morning

    I see the sleuths are off and running on the citizenship thing. More power to them 🙂

    The big black eye starts today as the High Court case considers the survey. I am as you can tell optimistic about the case winning thanks to the constitutional experts views. I really hope this is the end of the hate fest Turnbull unleashed.

  21. Most Australian don’t care a shit what a holiday is called. Lets call it holiday 1,2,3 etc. and let people celebrate as they want.

  22. I think the high number of people opposed to changing the date is simply due to a yearning for tradition. Most young people would be shocked that our current national anthem had only been in place a few decades so the facts of the matter are neither here not there for many people, they just respond with their gut reaction that some kind of grand tradition and their beloved country are under threat somehow. Illogical and even possibly “moronic” but nonetheless something that reform proposals will need to deal with rather than deny

  23. Overnight I heard on RN an explanation of the way in which Gallipoli has been established as “the birth of Australia” and how millions have been spent to support the myth since the 1990s, including what I can only call brainwashing of children through educational programs, Kokoda track, school visits to Gallipoli, etc. Being then half asleep, I cannot now recall all the ways in which the myth has been promoted.

    I’m not sure that it was all Howard’s doing, but when it was all laid out it made me very angry. Quite apart from the utter dismissal of aboriginal history, the emphasis on ‘the fighting Australian’ completely ignored all the early years of settlement.

  24. On Australia Day

    The date has to change. Until it does it will remain a day of division not a day of unity. Its that simple.

    The Conservatives don’t like change but as with other things a date change will rapidly be adjusted to and unity will then come. All the claims of divisions on another day are pathetic precisely because we know this date is so divisive.

  25. TheKouk: RBA meeting day: Likely to be further heated exchanges with inflation missing target, wages growth disastrous, unemployment high

  26. lizzie

    And they don’t even explain Gallipoli properly – that the ANZUS troops were soundly thrashed in a pointless exercise and had to creep away in the middle of the night doesn’t seem to get much airplay…

  27. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    It’s been a privatisation bonanza in NSW recently!
    Network Ten’s biggest loser could well be the Murdoch family.
    Mark Kenny on the changed optics after Abbott’s dare and Shorten’s revelation.
    Employers, particularly franchise chains, face stiff new penalties and a beefed up watchdog after reforms to protect vulnerable workers passed the Senate last night.
    Another bitter debate about same-sex marriage, a third attempt at the failed plebiscite, or even a backbench revolt could await the Turnbull government if the High Court kills off its plan for a postal survey this week.
    Greg Jericho writes “The contest for most stupid political proposal is a toughly fought one, but on the weekend the bar was well and truly raised when the WA state Liberal party voted to ‘examine the option of Western Australia becoming a financially independent state within the commonwealth.'” He says that taking back GST revenue may be reason enough for some Liberals but without the rest of Australia WA would be a basket case.
    Michelle Grattan has a good review of yesterday’s events over citizenship.
    Paul Bongiorno begins his article with “Anxiety over the latest provocation of North Korea wasn’t enough to give the Prime Minister the sort of political cover he so desperately seeks. On the morning of the 19th consecutive Newspoll where the government trailed Labor – the seventh where the margin was by six points or more – Malcolm Turnbull went into war-time leader mode.”
    Turnbull Government’s draft outline of a clean energy target reportedly attempts to divorce the mechanism from emission reduction trajectories, in the latest sign of the Coalition’s commitment to coal and its attempts to put the brakes on a rapid transition to a renewables-based grid.,10683
    Of ALL people, Stuart Robert may well have been elected in breach of Section 44 with respect to business dealings.

  28. Section 2 . . .

    The Coalition confirms its status as the champion when it comes to jobs for the boys.
    Bruce Billson will be examined by a bipartisan committee to determine whether he acted in contempt of Parliament by taking undeclared payments from a business lobby group. And so he should!
    John Passant on how the Turnbull government is continuing to screw over workers.,10681
    Michelle Rowland writes that the new media reform package hands unprecedented power to a privileged few.
    Michael West shines the light on yet another transgression by the CBA.
    George Williams says the High Court may bring the postal survey to an immediate halt. This would be a first, with no other national poll stopped in its tracks in this way. But then again, no past government has sought to hold a national vote in such legally dubious circumstances.
    More Turnbull turd polishing from Mark Kenny.
    Paul McGeough suggests that Trump is out of his comfort zone (and depth) with the North Korea situation.
    Now bosses can get handsomely rewarded after being sprung for cooking the books!
    The clean up from a hepatitis A outbreak linked to frozen berries has landed in court, with Patties Foods seeking millions of dollars in compensation from the supplier that sourced the infected fruit from China.

  29. Section 3 . . .

    Lawyer John Wilson tells us that a recent judgment has tipped the scales even further to the government’s advantage against public servants.
    More from John Wilson on a recent refusal by the High Court to hear an appeal relating to free speech.
    The same-sex marriage survey is fraught with problems for public servants.
    And this is why.
    The Australian’s legal affairs writer Chris Merritt says that if the weight of academic opinion is correct, the government’s strategy for dealing with same-sex marriage is about to suffer catastrophic defeat at the hands of the High Court. and that could be a good thing. Interesting. Google.
    Norm Abjorensen says that the SSM debate is a culture war with no middle ground. A good essay.
    Associate Professor Alex Millmow tells us why Australians should not, after Brexit and Trump, turn our backs on economists.
    The government has been warned of a looming gap in the national electricity supply as coal-fired power stations shut down, highlighting the need for urgent decisions to build new generators that operate around the clock. Stand by for some classic Coalition scaremongering. Google.
    The SMH editorial looks at the WA Liberals’ “Secession Lite” flirtation.
    Christian Porter has attacked “establishment” doctors for their failure to support its plan to drug-test welfare recipients accusing them of being too cautious to try a new approach.
    The architect of Tony Abbott’s controversial Commission of Audit has teamed up with a Liberal-leaning think tank to create a “blueprint for good government” for Malcolm Turnbull ahead of the next election. This will be good I must say!
    Barnaby Joyce has unveiled plans for more long-range moves of federal public servants, this time to Darwin.

  30. You could interpret the ABC article as ‘balance’. Three Coalition members have been referred to the High Court, so there must be a similar number of Labor members.

    They all need to come forward show their documents until we either find 3 invalid or they are all somehow ok.

  31. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Cathy Wilcox and Turmbull’s thoughts on NK and SSM.

    Ron Tandberg and some “success” for Trump.

    Mark David with Turnbull’s sporting prowess.

    Paul Zanetti takes Trump into the trenches.

    Nice Work from Mark Knight.

    Sean Leahy with North Korea’s nuke.

    Sean Leahy is not happy with the NBN.

    David Pope and befuddled Malcolm Turnbull, Waxit just ads to his problems.
    Some societal perspective from Pat Campbell.
    Funny stuff from Mark Knight on the Logies.

  32. Thanks BK

    The opposition of the right to marriage equality is astounding. If they lose in the High Court they are still going to try and get around parliament doing its job.

    Amazing what the right will trash to oppose equality

  33. mpbowers: Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce runs this morn.-He gave up after 1 lap “it’s too cold” @murpharoo @GuardianAus #politicslive

  34. MikeCarlton01: Meanwhile, it would kill two birds with one stone if we just had Australia Day on the 1st Tuesday in November #QandA

  35. davidschneider: Bloody Antifa! thetimes:

    A group of codebreakers who helped to defeat Hitler were reunited at Bletchley Park yesterday

  36. zoomster

    I’m all for WAXIT – they secede, we invade, then we dictate our own terms.

    Sounds like a plan. We could subdivide it into two zones – WA Mining and WA Tourism.
    e.g. SA could take control of the Margaret River area, as complementary to SA’s wine and slow food industries. Put it under single management.

  37. Dennis Altman gives his (very experienced) thoughts on the ME debate, much in parallel with Norman Abjorensens’s essay.

    Tony Abbott is right: this is a vote about much more than same-sex marriage. But this is self-fulfilling rhetoric. The right have consistently used the issue as part of a larger cultural war, and marriage equality has become totemic of everything they dislike.

    A no victory would be seen as a resounding rejection of equality and diversity with implications far beyond the specific question of marriage,

    It is a skirmish in a long battle, the sides increasingly polarised.

  38. Is Mal’s basketball effort a metaphor for his PMship?

    Josh Taylor‏Verified account @joshgnosis · 14m14 minutes ago

    Turnbull: “If you give most people a basketball, they’re going to miss the hoop.” He says to Andrew Gaze.

  39. An Australian white power group, whose members pledge allegiance to Hitler during secret radicalisation camps, is posting propaganda around Melbourne designed to sway the national same-sex marriage postal vote.

    The activities of Antipodean Resistance have so far been limited to Nazi-inspired vandalism, but terror experts are warning of the potential for violence.

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