Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

The latest Essential records no change on voting intention, be it for a federal election or a same-sex marriage survey.

The Guardian reports the latest Essential Research poll has Labor’s lead steady at 53-47, but provides only incomplete detail of the primary vote. The poll also records 59% in favour of same-sex marriage with 31% opposed, compared with 57% and 32% a fortnight ago, with 62% (down one) saying they will definitely “vote” in the survey if it survives the High Court challenge, and another 16% (down two) saying they will probably do so. Again, this skews towards the yes camp, with 74% of supporters rating themselves as definite compared with 58% of opponents.

On power prices, the poll finds 49% holding energy companies principally responsible, compared with 22% for the Turnbull government and 9% for “environmentalists pushing action on climate change”. It also finds 54% opposed to changing the date of Australia, with 26% in support, and 70% believing “believe everyone can celebrate on that day”, versus 18% against. Forty-two per cent disagree with changing inscriptions on public statues. The full report should be with us later today.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

497 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Coalition theme: Rules are for lefties. They’ll never be winners like us.

    Margo Kingston‏Verified account @margokingston1 · 2h2 hours ago

    Sensational irony of the citizenship scandal is that Labor took its constitutional obligations seriously. Libs & Nats didn’t give a shit.

  2. morning all

    i didnt see the four corners program last night. but as mentioned in past. there is no accountability for the inferior and substandard products being used on our buildings and homes. this includes wiring, glass, cladding etc. it is a national disgrace

  3. i didnt see the four corners program last night. but as mentioned in past. there is no accountability for the inferior and substandard products being used on our buildings and homes. this includes wiring, glass, cladding etc. it is a national disgrace
    __________________
    Regardless of standards it is the inappropriate selection of materials for the job that is a t the heart of the matter.

  4. Victoria

    I agree. We have kept our seperate standard instead of adopting EU or US or China standard for plugs. Thus adding to costs for all electronic devices. Yet the scrimping and saving comes in when it comes to enforcing safety standards.

    We know it can’t be about local manufacturing as the neo liberal push has seen that all but disappear.

  5. Craig Kelly using false logic.

    Liberal Craig Kelly told Fairfax Media the government should try to push the compulsory-attendance plebiscite through the Senate for a third time, arguing the mood had changed because Labor, the Greens and same-sex marriage advocates have now tacitly endorsed a public vote by campaigning in the postal survey.

  6. How about this for a radical contrary view, PvO in today’s GG
    ‘The unavoidable reality for Malcolm Turnbull is that no matter how far ahead of Bill Shorten’s better PM rating he moves, the government continues to trail Labor on the two-party vote.’

    The title ‘Clock is ticking but the PM can’t lift the party vote ‘.

  7. AnneFrankCenter: Generations from now, children will read about a President who took away civil and human rights. Textbooks will call this the Era of Shame.

  8. What the GG article on energy requirements completely ignores is the massive pipeline of renewable energy. Most of it won’t be online until next year, so there could be problems next summer, but by the time Snowy 2.0 or a new coal fired power station come online they will no longer be required.

  9. WAXIT means no more potential involvement by Rod Marsh in selecting the Aussie team and no more Mitch or Shaun Marsh in the team.

    I vote yes.

  10. Also the article in the GG linked on energy says votes are less willing to pay more for renewable energy, given the price rises generally this is a rational response.
    It does report if they were asked if they would pay more for coal fired electricity.

    Also in the body of the article it says the problem with a new coal plant is it would face fierce competition from wind and solar by the time it was built, becase the renewable sources would be cheaper.

    I cannot see the logic of any argument they are pushing for more coal power.

  11. TS

    If you missed it Lateline followed Albo and Bob Katter around last night. The infrastructure tour was renewables renewables and only renewables.

  12. This stuff always pulls me up in my tracks. What the hell are we doing here on this spinning and wobbling third rock from the sun in a wholly insignificant solar system tucked into one of the far flung arms of a mighty spiralling galaxy in a zillion other galaxies in a universe likely a tiny component in a multiverse, and then some …

    (” rel=”nofollow”>pic source)

    An enormous black hole one hundred thousand times more massive than the sun has been found hiding in a toxic gas cloud wafting around near the heart of the Milky Way.

    Observations from the Alma telescope in Chile showed that molecules in the elliptical cloud, which is 200 light years from the centre of the Milky Way and 150 trillion kilometres wide, were being pulled around by immense gravitational forces. The most likely cause, according to computer models, was a black hole no more than 1.4 trillion km across.

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2017/sep/04/supermassive-black-hole-discovered-near-heart-of-the-milky-way

  13. John Reidy

    How about this for a radical contrary view, PvO in today’s GG
    ‘The unavoidable reality for Malcolm Turnbull is that no matter how far ahead of Bill Shorten’s better PM rating he moves, the government continues to trail Labor on the two-party vote.’

    The title ‘Clock is ticking but the PM can’t lift the party vote ‘.
    ____________________________________________________

    Alt-Rex will have conniptions.

  17. While George Williams has been front and centre telling us all that the Coalition is pushing merde uphill in the postal thingy case, what is really telling is that no independent academic or lawyer has been prepared to say that the Coalition has even an arguable case. Only the paid help have argued in favour of the postal thingy legality.

  18. CommSec: The CBA services purchasing managers index eased from 57.0 to 54.2 in August
    The composite PMI fell from 56.7 to 54.1
    #ausbiz #ausecon
    TheKouk: All of a sudden that business optimism is a little less upbeat twitter.com/CommSec/status…

  19. senthorun: Dear NO:

    1. Gender stereotypes limit kids.

    2. LGBTI resources enrich curriculums.

    3. Gay sex education saves lives.

    What’s the problem?

  20. guytaur

    If you missed it Lateline followed Albo and Bob Katter around last night. The infrastructure tour was renewables renewables and only renewables.

    Yep – I’ll see if I can catch up with it on iview.
    Queensland has a huge pipeline of renewables, but what they really new is additional transmission capacity.
    A much better way to spend a billion dollars than on Gautam Adani’s rail line – otherwise known as Gautam’s Cayman Royalty Strategy.

  22. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/04/half-uk-population-has-no-religion-british-social-attitudes-survey

    Freedom from religion is increasing in the UK.

    Among all adults in Britain, only 15% consider themselves to be Anglican, compared with almost one in three at the turn of the century, according to BSA data. Nine percent overall identify as Catholics, 17% as “other Christian” and 6% say they belong to non-Christian religions.

    More generally, 53% of all adults describe themselves as having no religious affiliation, up from 48% in 2015. The latest figure is the highest since the BSA survey began tracking religious affiliation in 1983, when 31% said they had no religion.

    While the fall in religious affiliation is being driven by the young

  24. mpbowers: Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce runs this morn.-He gave up after 1 lap “it’s too cold”

    A breeze and some humidity make it cold out there in Canberra for runners and Bike riders!

  25. ItzaDream @ #73 Tuesday, September 5th, 2017 – 9:34 am

    ratsak @ #64 Tuesday, September 5th, 2017 – 9:04 am

    Itza beautiful and wondrous universe Itza.

    And the irony is that it’s the wondrousness that begot the ‘there must be a god’ and look where that’s got/getting us. Makes my head spin, the insanity of conflict in the face of everything that should bring us together.

    It’s like the ME thing. Like go lie on your back and stare at the fkn stars, and get a grip. It just isn’t important is it, like really? Small minds make for big differences. Open up, go bigly.

    (rant over – off to clean up, winds still gusting, cold and cutting through)

  26. IaD

    My favourite incomprehensible is how this universe is expanding at an accelerating rate.

    Just where is the Cosmic PushmiPullyu?

  27. This doesn’t surprise me.

    For years the Cambodian Government tolerated this refreshing insight into Cambodia but as their hold on power becomes more tenuous it seems they will do anything to maintain their position.

    That Western Governments, who help set the systems in Cambodia, have sat back and allowed the corrupting of the system and facilitated it through their continual support of Hun Sen and his cronies is to their shame.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-05/cambodia-daily-newspaper-boss-blocked-from-leaving/8872024

  28. zoomster

    I’m all for WAXIT – they secede, we invade, then we dictate our own terms.
    —————————————————————————————-

    Why would we want to invade? Separation could be good for both countries.
    It would be nice to have a nearby foreign destination where they speak a similar language. Border Force gets to have an actual border to guard and an awesome wall to build & we get a new Foreign Minister. What’s not to like about the idea.

  30. Like go lie on your back and stare at the fkn stars, and get a grip.

    “We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.” — Oscar Wilde (Lord Darlington in Lady Windermere’s Fan.)

  37. CT

    jcobevans: After a year of walking, #clintonswalk has arrived in Canberra. He’s calling on the PM to meet him at the tent embassy. pic.twitter.com/bdfB6Lk68Y

    troutish: Can confirm @billshortenmp has locked in a meeting with @ClintonsWalk and Aboriginal Elders for 11:30am today.

  38. [TPOF
    While George Williams has been front and centre telling us all that the Coalition is pushing merde uphill in the postal thingy case, what is really telling is that no independent academic or lawyer has been prepared to say that the Coalition has even an arguable case. Only the paid help have argued in favour of the postal thingy legality.    ]

    This seems to be entirely consistent with most of the legal positions this Government has taken.

    Their resultant successes in the Courts is a testament to their brilliance.

    C’mon HC, give us a win for fiscally responsible and accountable governance.

  40. Survey Court Case

    lanesainty: I went upstairs to have a stickybeak in the actual court room. It’s packed. Lawyers galore, plaintiffs in the front row.

  44. Over at the Guardian, Calla Wahlquist is doing a live blog on the High Court surveythingy hearing. She reports the following in setting out the agreed facts:

    “In this case, the determination said, the unforeseen circumstance was the senate refusing to pass the plebiscite bill, which necessitated urgent funding to the ABS to undertake a voluntary postal plebiscite. The amount authorised was $122m.”

    The law can be a super ass, but it is impossible to see how the Court could find refusal to pass the plebiscite bill was unforeseen, given that a Senate with almost exactly the same membership had refused to pass it in November 2016 and that nothing had changed since then, other than the Government threat to do a postal thingy if it refused to pass it again.

    The High Court would have to find that the Minister could legitimately declare that in his opinion white was black and that the sun shone brightly at midnight on the Equator if it was to allow his declaration that the Senate refusal was unforeseen.

    And that is leaving aside the fact that the Government has no more right to not foresee the Senate refusing to pass any bill than it has to not foresee the High Court will find its actions unconstitutional. By definition, such an expectation is utterly and improperly presumptuous.

    The more I see of the plaintiff’s case, the more I see that the Government will go down in a screaming heap (probably literally, given its internal divisions on this issue).

  45. guytaur

    abcsydney: #BREAKING: RugbyWA has lost its appeal against the axing of the Western Force from the Super Rugby competition.
    ________________________________

    WAxit is ON!!!!!

  46. Boerwar

    kj

    If WA seceded we would not ‘invade’, as such.

    We would just settle it. Again.
    _________________________________

    Precedent is a wonderful thing.

    We would have to pick the right date for it though. Don’t want future generations arguing when to have a holiday & what to call it.

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