Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor in Queensland

Newspoll records Labor in a winning position ahead of a looming Queensland election, as One Nation cannibalises the Liberal National Party.

The Australian reports a quarterly Newspoll result of state voting intention in Queensland, the first published since the second quarter of 2016, and the first to feature One Nation as a response option. One Nation emerges with 15%, which comes at the expense of the Liberal National Party, down six to 34%, and “others”, down eight to 6%, partly because it no longer includes One Nation. Labor is only down one point to 37%, and the Greens are unchanged on 8%. The headline two-party preferred coverts this to 53-47 in favour of Labor, but this is hard to call given the state will be switching from optional to compulsory preferential voting. Nonetheless, the movements on the primary vote can only be good news for Labor, and the One Nation vote as recorded is not so high as to put them in contention for more than a handful of seats. These are better numbers for Labor than last month’s Galaxy poll, but the leadership ratings are similar: Annastacia Palaszczuk has 41% approval and 46% disapproval, respectively down three and up four on the results from last year’s Newspoll, while Tim Nicholls is on 29% approval and 45% disapproval, down two and up nine. Palaszczuk has a 43-33 lead as preferred premier, shifting from 44-31.

The poll accumulates 1335 responses from polling conducted from July to September.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

13 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor in Queensland”

  1. Matt
    You’re correct. Queensland is going from OPV to CPV. That’s probably a negative for Labor in Queensland compared to previous elections. Due to a) the One Nation vote being roughly twice the Green vote and b) One Nation voters seeming to be more likely to preference no one given the option.

    If Labor is winning 2PP despite that on this poll , that’s actually an encouraging result for Queensland Labor.

    (The plan for going from OPV to CPV was for Labor to more reliably harvest a Green vote , that was at times inclined to say a “Pox on both your houses”, but it was enacted (in the Queensland Labor tradition of cynical manipulating the electoral system that shortly after shoots them in the foot) just before PHON made their reemergence on the political scene. So while the assembly was snookered into it, the LNP are probably pretty happy about it right now).

  2. Are the four year terms due to set in post-election? For a 2017-2021 term?

    The Newspoll is encouraging and I can only hope it holds up. The LNP are hardly in a position to form a competent, stable government.

  3. If the election is called before the end of 2017 the next election will be in October 2020. If the election is called after 1 January 201,8 the next election is in October 2021.

  4. John Cee
    Because it risks an LNP / PHON surge and spending the first fixed 4 year term on the Opposition benches. PHON is very strong in Queensland. So it’s better to go when you’re likely to win even if thats 3 years rather than lose for the possibility of 4.

  5. Elaugaufein

    Going early is a bigger risk than any potential ‘surge’. And it works both ways. More time before election gives opposing parties more time to flame out too.

  6. Queensland is a) a fairly naturally conservative state (Maranoa exists for one thing) and b) One Nation’s home state (and their voter distribution is such that they can win Single member seats in decent numbers). And our Parliamentary system offers close to 0 checks and balances (which is how Newman managed to epically flame out in 1 term).

    Hoping for Conservatives / PHON to flame out is a fools game.

  7. I can’t see any upwards trend in phon polling, not to say it won’t be higher in an election.

    No good reason to go early other than nerves or known upcoming issues the gov would rather not deal with before or during the campaign.

  8. In my opinion it will look far better to the punters on election day if the Gov’t have served out a full term, rather then going early and looking simply opportunistic.

  9. Also I think that Anna P comes across as basically down to earth and trustworthy, which is probably her best advantage against Tim Nicholls.

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