Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Back to normal from Newspoll after a blowout in Labor’s favour a fortnight ago.

Newspoll has Labor’s lead back at 53-47 after a 54-46 blowout a fortnight ago, with primary votes at 37% for the Coalition (up two), 38% for Labor (steady), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 8% for One Nation (down one). Both Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten are on 34% approval and 54% disapproval, which means one-point drops in both for Turnbull, and no change for Shorten. Oddly, Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister has blow out to 46-29, from 43-33. Paywalled report from The Australian here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

631 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. “Punks”; “neoliberal consensus”;”shock jocks”; “tabloid loudmouths”; “reptiles”. Make a great comment on poll bludger. A serious article?

    I think however Ross makes a point; there are risks as we unravel the mess created by the neoliberal consensus. Those making the mess are unlikely to take their bat and ball home; but they will have problems with being heard.

    Wilson Weatherill dismissed the productivity commission with the comment; these are the guys that destroy the Australian Car industry and our ability to build submarines. It was a reasonable dismissal I thought, how are we to train our youth? But what takes there place for considered advise.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/treasury-must-prevail-against-pushy-young-punks-20170902-gy9jg8.html

  5. Lizzie

    “The comments raise the prospect of a tense internal preselection contest within the Liberal Party if the moderate Mr Pyne – a 24-year parliamentary veteran – believes challenging a sitting colleague is his only chance of staying in politics.”

    I don’t think Pyne cares much about “colleague’s” or .

    His interest is in keeping himself in the safest seat possible. Political philosophy is not something that appears to matter to him much.

  7. victoria

    PhoenixRed

    If you are about, have you seen Rick Wilson’s latest tweets?

    ******************************

    Hi Victoria – just been out chainsawing up a fallen tree on the electric fence – so sick of our Victorian winter weather

    Tell me what he is saying ……

  8. I like Bill Shorten’s style. Talk softly and carry a stick just big enough to prod his enemy into serious mistakes.

  9. urbanwronski: Stylish to the core, our death-defying PM breaks out his emergency leather bomber jacket, Monday and ‘copters to Cooma.

    Mal’s affection for the leather, when in crisis mode, seems equivalent to Tone’s tendency to military uniforms.

  10. lizzie

    It’s his having a hide like an elephant ,the ability to shamelessly make the most laughable claims without a hint of embarrassment.

  12. victoria

    PhoenixRed

    If you are about, have you seen Rick Wilson’s latest tweets?

    **************************

    Ok – I think I get his drift – remember, remember the month of September ………fingers crossed…..

  16. Katharine Murphy taking another pounding by readers in the Guardian. I’m not sure why she still thinks she can get away with “the Emperor’s beautiful new set of clothes” routine.

  17. I find it quite amusing how the narrative in the news regarding this newspoll (at least on the ABC anyway) has been around emphasising the “recovery” of the coalition vote – as opposed to the fact that its about the 17th straight loss, and just another nail in the coffin for Turnbull.

  18. Gladys has been to Seoul and got all starry eyed and gooey about building an ‘aerotropolis’, based on Incheon Airport, at Badgerys Creek.

    However …

    Unions are preparing to fight the NSW government over plans to encourage overseas businesses to set up shop around Badgerys Creek airport.

    Unions NSW secretary Mark Morey said he was concerned that the Premier was considering “a cut-price labour zone” around Badgerys Creek “where wages are below minimum and people can be forced to work dangerously long hours in Third World conditions”.

    But a spokesman for the NSW Premier said it was not proposing to replicate all aspects of the Incheon aerotropolis.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/unions-threaten-to-disrupt-construction-of-badgerys-creek-airport-20170901-gy98xt.html

  19. The Prime Minister today accused Labor of wanting to disrupt Parliament rather than deal with the major issues of threats from North Korea and problems with energy prices.

    “We are facing on the Korean Peninsular the gravest threat since the Korean War,” Mr Turnbull told ABC radio.

    The threat of war is so handy for a failing government. Best excuse ever for making no other decisions.

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/labor-insists-barnaby-joyce-cant-act-as-pm-before-high-court-makes-decision/news-story/5fdfc2ea83202a77281e5c2c108135c1

  21. More of the same from Newspoll. The government is toast. They need a miracle to not concede a 20 odd seat majority at the next election.

  25. victoria @ #114 Monday, September 4th, 2017 – 8:48 am

    PhoenixRed

    The wind is the main culprit. Grrr. It annoys me so much.

    Wilson says this week is going to be nuts!

    And you haven’t got it to yourselves – after hot winds yesterday, cold winds today in the Highlands of New South Wales, and spare a thought for Taswegians with snow predicted as low as 200m. But in some Springtime good news, Andrew Boy Charlton pool in Woolloomooloo, the most bestest public pool in the whole wide world, opened again on the weekend.

    re the start of Spring, a totally northern hemisphere concept anyway, whose idea was it to change Wattle Day (that could be our National Day) from August 1st (in concert with the horsies) to September 1st, to ‘coincide’ with ‘Spring’. Whoever it was, they forgot to tell the wattles.

  26. Wayne Swan‏Verified account @SwannyQLD · 2h2 hours ago

    AM celebrates its 50th anniversary by giving Turnbull 10 minutes to slag the Labor Party – what a joke #auspol

  27. The party political broadcast brought to you by AM this morning. Did Sabra query Truffles’ bullshit (bolded) ?

    Well, it says a lot about the Labor party, Sabra, doesn’t it, that at a time when we’re facing the greatest threat of war on the Korean peninsula in 60 years, more than 60 years, on the face of that – in the face of rising energy prices and Labor’s admitted responsibility for that, in the face of all of that, what the Labor party wants to do is talk about creating disruption on the floor of the parliament. Australians will be sickened by the sight of the Labor party’s failure to recognise the priorities of the Australian parliament, is to keep Australians safe and to support the opportunity, the economic opportunity that Australians deserve, and that requires the parliament to focus on the real issues, rather than playing political games.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2017/sep/04/malcolm-turnbull-improves-his-standing-in-newspoll-politics-live

  28. lizzie

    AM celebrates its 50th anniversary by giving Turnbull 10 minutes to slag the Labor Party

    In among the normal Turnbull guff there was “Now, Sabra, I know you don’t like me talking about the former government but …” … gas sales …

  29. lizzie @ #126 Monday, September 4th, 2017 – 9:03 am

    Wayne Swan‏Verified account @SwannyQLD · 2h2 hours ago

    AM celebrates its 50th anniversary by giving Turnbull 10 minutes to slag the Labor Party – what a joke #auspol

    Surely it’s time (sic) to slag back. Press release after press release flooding the public domain with some actual data on what lying consters* this mob are. Gloves off please.

    * (insert obscenity of choice)

  30. Amazing, Truffles’ government still solidly behind for the eleventyith time and the two headlines I have so far seen re Newspoll are………….
    .
    The GG “Shorten on slide in PM stakes”
    .
    The Grauniad “Malcolm Turnbull improves his standing”

  35. lizzie @ #126 Monday, September 4th, 2017 – 9:03 am

    Wayne Swan‏Verified account @SwannyQLD · 2h2 hours ago

    AM celebrates its 50th anniversary by giving Turnbull 10 minutes to slag the Labor Party – what a joke #auspol

    Nobody should be surprised.

    In recent years AM has been a shameless spruiker for the LNP, whether in government or opposition.

  36. I don’t subscribe to the view that the ABC has a systemic bias to the Coalition. But sometimes they don’t do themselves any favours.
    This morning’s 6a.m. local radio news included detailed coverage of the Preferred Prime Minister result, including mentioning that the change was outside the MOE. No mention of the 2PP.
    In subsequent bulletins at 6.30 and 7am, there was no mention of the poll at all.

  37. Apparently the 60 year high in Korean Peninsula tensions is enough for MT to exhort Labor to put aside silly parlour games over the eligibility of the Deputy PM and supinely agree with whatever nonsense the LNP might suggest to ease those tensions.

    MT’s exhortation is an offence to intelligence.

    1. Supposing Korean Peninsula tensions are at a post-Korean war high (a dubious proposition) what realistically is Australia and its Parliament meant to do to ease those tensions? Pass the anti-Korean War Bill?

    2. Given the extreme concerns MT has in respect of the Korean Peninsula has MT cancelled his Pacific Islands overseas trip so that he can give the Korean crisis his full attention?

    3. If MT is, in the face of the Korean crisis (the worst in 60 years don’t you know), is still prepared to leave Australia for overseas, should he be putting in his place as acting PM Barnaby in circumstances where his material incompetence is for the time matched by his potential legal incompetence?

    4. If we accept the MT proposition that the Korean Peninsula tensions are so high that Labor should do nothing but work with the Government in the interests of National Unity then, in the interests of National Unity the FIRST thing Labor should do is ensure that at this critical time the person who will be acting PM is actually unquestionably competent to so act.

    Ergo, accepting MT’s premise, what Labor should be doing is taking every conceivable step open to it in Parliament to ensure the Government is being led by a person of unquestionable competence. Labor should suggest, in the circumstances of the Korean crisis, the need for National Unity and Barnaby’s questionable competence, the right person to step up as acting PM should be Bill Shorten.

    And then the LNP can blame everything on Bill from now to the next election. Or do so in a new way.

  39. Mr Abbott has held up a letter showing he renounced his dual citizenship in 1993 to the cameras, and has called on Mr Shorten to do the same. Mr Abbott produced the letter 24 years after he renounced his citizenship.

    Shorten renounced his citizenship in 2006, if he doesn’t produce such letter in 2030 I think Abbott will have a point.

  40. Seems to be no question on truth of this.

    Ewart Dave @davidbewart · 9m9 minutes ago

    If abbott gave up uk in 1993 why is the proof of that fact a letter dated 2015? Was there no corro?

  41. I don’t subscribe to the view that the ABC has a systemic bias to the Coalition.
    Same here, online coverage of the 50 years is a good example of this.

    The Latham handshake of the aggressive labor leader. A framed photograph of the fateful handshake hung on the AM studio door until earlier this year.
    The bitter, vain and flouncy Hawke, he’s trying to save some dignity, I was of course being sarcastic.
    The caring human Howard, But most memorable were his many interviews with the backbencher, then treasurer and later prime minister John Howard.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/about/backstory/radio/2017-09-04/the-greatest-moments-in-50-years-of-am/8790684

  42. On the Abbott letter, I found this link in the Guardian’s comments.

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/tony-abbotts-letter,10547

    Of note is this exchange with the UK Home Office.

    “… confirm that the Home Office does not hold this information.”

    https://twitter.com/dickybeacholdie/status/889653927339188224/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Findependentaustralia.net%2Fpolitics%2Fpolitics-display%2Ftony-abbotts-letter%2C10547

  45. Speaking of Howard and Abbott they are to tour Queensland speaking against the great evils of marriage equality, but why oh why isn’t their close friend and mentor Pell joining them on this evangelistic crusade.

    Pell could enlighten so many of us on where marriage equality sits in the ladder of sins. Is a lesser sin, a greater sin, an equal sin, one that cannot be forgiven, a blight against the church and god.

    Can someone start a petition to get these three great christian warriors together so they can be heard, we must hear all sides in this survey.

  46. Boris @ #141 Monday, September 4th, 2017 – 10:12 am

    I don’t subscribe to the view that the ABC has a systemic bias to the Coalition.
    Same here, online coverage of the 50 years is a good example of this.

    The Latham handshake of the aggressive labor leader. A framed photograph of the fateful handshake hung on the AM studio door until earlier this year.
    The bitter, vain and flouncy Hawke, he’s trying to save some dignity, I was of course being sarcastic.
    The caring human Howard, But most memorable were his many interviews with the backbencher, then treasurer and later prime minister John Howard.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/about/backstory/radio/2017-09-04/the-greatest-moments-in-50-years-of-am/8790684

    So much Howard, so much bullshit.

    50 years of AM reduced to the trivially vainglorious musings of the politically partisan.
    Mark Colvin will be turning in his grave.

  47. What could possibly go wrong?

    Commonwealth Bank to outsource cybersecurity to save money

    Commonwealth Bank wants to move a substantial part of its information technology division, including critical cyber security operations, to save costs, amid a growing scandal over its ability to monitor and report suspicious transactions.

    Sources said the bank was seeking substantial savings from its group-wide cyber security division, in what appeared to be a change of strategy under new head Yuval Illuz that has ruffled feathers inside the bank and led to several staff departures.

    The bank has called a tender to move staff and a range of functions involved in its critical cyber security defences to an offshore location, possibly India, in what industry sources say goes against industry practice.

    “There are no other banks that are actually talking about this,” said one source.

    It’s understood that NAB has all of its cybersecurity functions in-house, but that CBA’s other two main big four rivals have also looked to outsource some of the IT security work.

    According to a source, the operations and people involved range across a number of functions, from managing security access through to real-time monitoring of threats inside and outside the bank, as well as staff use of technology.
    —

    Google the headline to read it all.

  48. Boris,

    Latham’s handshake was the most significant, and stupidest, act ever by an Opposition leader on the eve of an election. And it happened to take place in the ABC studios.
    I don’t see bias in having a photo of such an historic event.

  49. Chris Mitchel tries his hand at comedy. Apparently, he hates “journalists telling people how to think rather than just reporting the facts”. Must be why he employed so many non-journalists to spout absolute crap on climate change, renewable energy, safe schools, indigenous communities, refugees, etc etc.

    he has no self awareness – or is just totally comfortable with continuing to be part of the most partisan, dishonest and agenda-driven crap-sheet of a ‘newspaper’ this country has ever seen.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/opinion/a-storys-not-a-story-when-it-doesnt-fit-the-leftwing-agenda/news-story/99154c0e8bdc04fd32abf88f8821efb2

  50. Trog Sorrenson @ #115 Monday, September 4th, 2017 – 8:50 am

    Oops: Rick Perry may have stumbled upon the solution to going 100 percent renewable
    https://thinkprogress.org/buried-in-perry-grid-study-is-solution-to-going-100-percent-renewable-d9e9b2512a2b/

    Yeah, nup. From your article …

    One of the cheapest way to flexibly fill the gap from a lull in winds or clouds blocking the sun is “demand response,” which involves paying commercial, industrial, and even residential customers to reduce electricity demand with a certain amount of advance warning.

    Of course, “demand response” is just a polite way of saying “load shedding”. The Australian study you quoted from on how we could be 100% renewable came to the same conclusion, as I recall. Can anyone really see this working in practice? It shows we still have a long way to go before 100% renewable is practical, doesn’t it?

    On the other hand, the article does get some things right (my bold) …

    The Perry report elaborates on another strategy that has helped integrate more renewables. It refers to DOE’s January report, Transforming the Nation’s Electricity System: The Second Installment of The Quadrennial Energy Review, which found that “fast ramping fossil” technologies — such as natural gas generation, which can be rapidly brought online, unlike coal-fired plants — have actually helped the growth of renewables, “providing reliable and dispatchable back-up capacity to hedge against variability of supply.”

    In other words, fast-ramping fossil has enabled natural gas to play a valuable supporting role for bringing on more renewables. Remember, we don’t have to take the grid to zero-carbon tomorrow. We just need to steadily reduce carbon pollution, first by making an orderly transition away from coal, and then by shrinking the role of gas to a purely supporting role, and finally by going 100 percent carbon free, even perhaps with some fast-ramping fossil for extremely rare situations.

    Now, where have we heard that before? … oh, that’s right … that’s what I’ve been saying for about a year now!

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