BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor

Very slightly better news on the poll front this week for the Coalition, although Labor maintains its thumping lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

The only poll this week was a slightly-less-bad-for-the-government result from Essential Research, which takes some of the edge off last week’s surge to Labor. The Coalition’s two gains on the seat projection consist of one apiece in Queensland and Western Australia. No new results on leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

636 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.6-46.4 to Labor”

  1. confessions @ #167 Saturday, September 2nd, 2017 – 2:42 pm

    Post-Harvey life in Texas is not looking good.

    The prolonged misery from Hurricane Harvey peaked here Friday in the southeast corner of the state, where a crippled municipal water system left residents lacking running water, unable to flush toilets, desperate for basic sanitation and fearful for their health.

    Meanwhile, a massive fire sent up a towering pillar of acrid, black smoke from the Arkema chemical plant northeast of Houston hours after company officials said they could do nothing to stop 19.5 tons of volatile chemicals from igniting.

    Beaumont’s dire situation and the uncontrolled chemical fire near Crosby, Tex., provided vivid reminders of the cascading effects of a natural disaster: wind, storm surge, torrential rain, floodwaters and now all the secondary consequences, including industrial accidents, environmental contamination, and broad concerns about sickness and disease.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2017/09/01/harveys-wake-drifts-north-as-battered-coast-left-with-lingering-perils-and-staggering-recovery/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_harvey-7am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.992690fb4c05

    Brain Trumbel could send them the tape of our recovery efforts during/after the 2011 Queensland floods. It’s an opportunity to big note himself by slipping it to Trump via Greg Norman. We can be good allies by showing them how are recovery effort is done.

  2. BK @ #186 Saturday, September 2nd, 2017 – 3:17 pm

    I’m no fan of Kelly O’Dwyer but she does not deserve what’s being thrown at her inside the putrid Victorian Liberal tent.

    Kelly O’Dwyer can have as much sympathy as she and the rest of the L/NP team have shown:
    – Refugees
    – Robodebt recipients
    – Cashless welfare card “clients”
    – Welfare recipients about to be drug tested
    – Anyone forced to rely on welfare due to unemployment or disability
    – LGBTIQ people in the ME opinion poll farce
    – All the other victims of L/NP cutbacks to essential services whilst the richest get a tax cut or a subsidy
    – The ideological enemies of the L/NP like the construction unions and many others who are unfairly targeted

    O’Dwyer deserves well more than everything she is already getting. When you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas.

  3. Jacinda Ardern has my utmost respect. For her to take over NZ Labour and get them into a winning position in the short space of time she has been at the helm of the party can only be described as a superhuman effort. Also, for her to not have put a foot wrong so far and to have seen Julie Bishop’s laughable attempt to hobble her off at the first post, whilst organising her team’s election campaign and getting on with it…well…she must be a woman. ; )

    Nevertheless, she’s a better woman than me because I am having trouble keeping my foot out of my mouth and then successfully putting one foot in front of the other, as I negotiate simply a Council election campaign!

  4. **Count yourself lucky you didn’t have to do the underwater escape training, it’s not a pleasant experience.**
    I certainly do.
    I quite enjoyed the leap into water from very high platform training.
    Not a fan of BA confined spaces training.

  5. Kelly O’Dwyer is a motor mouth. She is a member of the IPA. She has said some stupid things about handbag hit squads and house prices changing with the abolition of negative gearing. Like her predecessor, she has done nothing since becoming the member of Higgins.

  6. poroti @ #252 Saturday, September 2nd, 2017 – 5:39 pm

    grimace

    The helicopter one ? Bloody ‘orrible.

    Yep. I did mine in Sale as a part of MRC training with Esso to go to the platforms in Bass Strait, the worse part was having to be one of the people in the middle with 8 of us in the frame (2 row of 4). It was the middle of winter and they kept the water at 32 degrees. I’d hate to have to get out for real.

  7. I’m just going to point out that P1’s Law and “typical Green’s same-same” might carry more intellectual and moral heft amongst a commentariat that didn’t regularly call me blue-green, continuously accuse me of voting for the Liberals and comment endlessly on how the Greens are secretly Liberals.

    I don’t expect this to cause any actual reflection because the culprits tend to have their heads firmly up their own asses , but I’m going to put it out there anyway.

  8. Elaugaufein @ #262 Saturday, September 2nd, 2017 – 9:10 pm

    I’m just going to point out that P1’s Law and “typical Green’s same-same” might carry more intellectual and moral heft amongst a commentariat that didn’t regularly call me blue-green, continuously accuse me of voting for the Liberals and comment endlessly on how the Greens are secretly Liberals.

    I don’t expect this to cause any actual reflection because the culprits tend to have their heads firmly up their own asses , but I’m going to put it out there anyway.

    I think I have worked out a few connections today.
    The way Rex Douglas was carrying on about “Illegals”, he is obviously our old friend Truthie! But he has come back with a more subtle approach and only blew his cover when he could no longer contain his urge to rave about “Illegals”.

    P1 seems to have a lot of the characteristics of our old friend Mod Lib. There is the shyness about gender, the general smartarse behaviour, the use of selective ‘facts’.

  9. The newish SK President seems to have changed his tune –

    The US and South Korea agreed Friday to strengthen Seoul’s defenses and Washington gave a nod to billions in arms sales to the country, the White House said, days after North Korea fired a missile over Japan and threatened further launches.

    In Seoul, the presidential Blue House spokesman confirmed that US President Donald Trump and his South Korean counterpart Moon Jae-in agreed to enhance the country’s deterrence against North Korea by boosting its missile capabilities.

    http://www.france24.com/en/20170902-usa-south-korea-agree-boost-seoul-missile-capabilities-trump-moon

  10. “The US and South Korea agreed Friday to strengthen Seoul’s defenses and Washington gave a nod to billions in arms sales to the country,”

    Would be interesting to know if there are any increases in ammunition storage levels happening in South Korea.

  11. I think the EU’s answer to this clear –

    Hungary’s prime minister has asked the European Union to pay for half of the cost of anti-migrant fences it built on its southern borders, or about 440 million euros ($523 million).

    In a letter dated Thursday to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said the fences erected in 2015 on the borders with Serbia and Croatia have practically eliminated the migrant flow through Hungary, guarding more than just his country.

    The move comes days before Europe’s top court is expected to reject an appeal by Hungary and Slovakia against an EU agreement obliging them to take in refugees from Greece and Italy.

    http://www.france24.com/en/20170901-hungary-wants-europe-funds-pay-border-fence-cut-migrant-flow

  12. “imacca

    Added to from where?

    The continental US ?”

    Or storage’s in the Pacific or Japan. I know there were quite big shipments from the US to Europe not that long after the Crimea thing. In the case of SK i suspect they have had their own production ramping up for a while.

    One thing about modern land warfare is that it goes through ammunition at a very high rate. Due to the nature of the theater for a Korean war (Seoul so close to the border) i reckon that tube artillery and rocket use would be huge, approaching WWI levels in the initial stages. It would be horrible, no doubt about it, with casualties that people will find mind numbing.

  13. imacca

    That the SK’s would have lots of conventional artillery rounds to hand themselves did occur to me.

    I was also suggesting the actual US as where the Americans would have whatever big stores of artillery and small weapons ammunition in the light of the movement of stores to the Poland and nearby NATO countries a couple of years ago. The Isreali’s have had to be resupplied directly from the US quite a few times.

    Would the Americans now consider any big stores of the like they could have had in times gone by in Japan or Guam now to vulnerable to land based missile attack to keep there now?

    US missile usage in the last decade or so in the ME seem to show signs that they don’t have lots of ‘spares’ around and field commanders use “what they’ve got” to hand in most cases (excl. Nukes!).

    So my thought was any big ‘just in case’ supplies of theirs may only be in the US itself now.

  14. Lots of good thoughts on mobile phone usage here –

    How long would you last doing a simple cognitive task without checking your smartphone or social media feed, before you get fidgety and bored? Ten minutes? How would you feel after one hour?

    Around two thirds of British people admit they would feel lost, unhappy or anxious without their smartphone, according to a survey last year. Around half of Americans openly admit they simply could not last a day without their smartphone.

    Researchers are fairly successfully uncovering the ocean of evidence that suggests living completely immersed in the “information ecosystem” of smartphone, internet and social media feed – as billions of people do every day worldwide – is seriously detrimental to one’s mental health and cognitive capacity.

    We lose the ability to deeply concentrate and contemplate. We have higher general levels of anxiety and emotional anaesthesia. We struggle to retain memory in the same way, outsourcing this function to Google. Our minds are becoming more like automated data-processing machines, drained of creative dynamism and vibrancy.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/long_reads/smartphone-get-rid-social-media-change-life-online-capitalism-internet-detox-control-a7910066.html

  15. Luckily I’ve always hated & mostly avoided mobiles. Fat fingers and old eyes have saved some of the cognitive functions that excessive alcohol has left me 🙂

  16. When Kelly O’Dwyer – who managed to ACCIDENTALLY vote for LABOR’s amendment and pass it! – is being held up as a sterling example of competence….

  17. Kevjohnno

    Until about 12 months ago I ‘survived’ using a prepaid $50 Nokia. Phone cals and SMS only available.

    Only ‘upgraded’ to new phone so I could use ‘blue tooth’ car connection when traveling. It’s a sub $300 unit that does all sorts of other stuff that I try not to use!

    People do get a little frustrated with me as checking for messages is a if I hear it go off event or about twice a day other than that proposition.

    I don’t carry it around with me unless I’m expecting a call or will be away from the house for longer than a couple of hours.

  18. Brexit:

    Could a better opposition leader bring Theresa May down over Brexit?

    In the last great parliamentary battle over Europe, the Maastricht Treaty in 1993, Labour defeated the government and inflicted serious damage on its reputation

    We have had two hints of how a more effective opposition might operate. First, when Emily Thornberry stood in for Jeremy Corbyn at Prime Minister’s Questions in July. She quoted what different ministers had said about the possibility of the UK and the EU failing to reach agreement on Brexit – “perfectly OK”, said Boris Johnson; a “very, very bad outcome”, said Philip Hammond.

    This is one of the most effective lines of attack available to an opposition leader. Tony Blair deployed it against John Major in 1995 about the government’s policy on the euro: “I find it odd that he cannot agree with his Chancellor, I find it strange that he cannot agree with his Secretary of State for Employment and I find it unbelievable that he cannot agree with himself.”

    Starmer has done well to persuade Corbyn and John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor, to shift Labour’s policy on the transition. But, unless the leader himself can drive the advantage home, it doesn’t seem as if Labour is likely to add significantly to May’s troubles.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/could-a-better-opposition-leader-bring-theresa-may-down-over-brexit-a7926001.html

  19. Much the same for me Ctar1. Had a Nokia till work forced a smart phone on me. Hardly use it when not working though. Apart from the phone & camera hardly use any other function and not that interested in apps. Never used to be a luddite but just hate to be always on an electronic leash.

  20. kevjohnno,

    I carted a work one around for some years but fortunately back when only small numbers of work colleges would actually know it’s number and the organisation I worked for didn’t expect that just because you had one of their phones you were ‘theirs’ 24/7.

    But I count the way that they are currently used a real curse.

    Employees have got this crazy idea that they are not ‘valued’ by their employer if they are not issued with a ‘work’ mobile and once given one they’ll slavishly then basically make themselves ‘available’ to take calls on quite mundane matters for hours each work day evening after ‘leaving’ work for the day and on weekends.

    “Hang on. I need to answer this work call” – F@ck that!

  21. Trump Could Lose His DC Hotel Lease As He Is Under Investigation By The GSA

    The lease should have been canceled as soon as Trump was sworn into office. It is a clear Emoluments Clause violation, which if the other Russia related scandals don’t get Trump, the fact that he is basically laundering money through his hotel from foreign nations should. House Democrats have taken a keen interest in the corruption associated with the hotel and how the President is profiting off of it.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/09/02/trump-lose-dc-hotel-lease-investigation-gsa.html

  22. Out Of His Mind Trump Says Hurricane Victims Are Happy And Harvey Was Beautiful For The Country

    Asked what his message was for the people of Texas, Trump said: “The message is that things are working out well. Really, I think people appreciate what’s been done. It’s been done very efficiently, very well, and that’s what we want. We’re very happy with the way everything is going. A lot of love. There’s a lot of love.”
    Asked what families told him earlier when he visited with kids and their parents in a play area, Trump said: “They were just happy. We saw a lot of happiness. It’s been really nice. It’s been a wonderful thing. As tough as this was, it’s been a wonderful thing, I think even for the country to watch it and for the world to watch. It’s been beautiful.”
    Trump went to Texas looking for good publicity, but all he did was prove that he is the most out of touch president in a century.
    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/09/02/mind-trump-hurricane-victims-happy-harvey-beautiful-country.html

  23. Trump Uses Shelter Full Of Harvey Disaster Victims To Brag About The Size Of His Hands

    While doing a photo-op of handing out food to Harvey victims at a shelter, Donald Trump took a moment to brag about the size of his hands by informing the press that his hands were too big for the plastic gloves.

    The President has been insecure about the size of his hands since a story was published in Spy magazine in 1988 that referred to him as a short fingered vulgarian.

    Donald Trump was surrounded by human beings who lost everything in a natural disaster, but all he could think about was the size of his hands.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/09/02/trump-shelter-full-harvey-disaster-victims-brag-size-hands.html

  24. Justice Department quietly releases brief stating there is no evidence Obama wiretapped Trump’s offices

    According to a brief filed late Friday, the Department of Justice stated that it has no evidence that former President Barack Obama wire-tapped now-President Donald Trump’s offices in Trump Tower prior to the election.

    The FBI has been investigating the claim since Trump tweeted in March, “Terrible! Just found out that Obama had my “wires tapped” in Trump Tower just before the victory. Nothing found. This is McCarthyism!”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/09/justice-department-quietly-releases-brief-stating-there-is-no-evidence-obama-wiretapped-trumps-offices/

  25. Trump biographer: ‘Manafort’s money trail’ will lead Mueller to Kushner and eventually Trump

    Special counsel Robert Mueller will ultimately take down President Donald Trump by following the money trail, the author of TrumpNation: The Art of Being the Donald told MSNBC host Joy Reid.

    “It begins with Paul Manafort, he’s the weak antelope in the back of the pack, they take him down,” Trump biographer Tim O’Brien explained.

    “They move into people like Michael Cohen, possibly into Felix Sater,” O’Brien continued.

    “They keep going up the food chain ultimately to Jared Kushner — who is vulnerable in all of this because of his own real estate transactions — and then to the president,” O’Brien concluded. “The money trail will be crucial here.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/09/trump-biographer-manaforts-money-trail-will-lead-mueller-to-kushner-and-eventually-trump/

  26. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    A little-known visa category ( the 400) has become a “new frontier for unscrupulous employers” looking to exploit cheap foreign labour at the expense of Australian workers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/a-new-frontier-the-littleknown-alternative-to-the-457-foreign-worker-visa-20170901-gy8p0j.html
    Take the time to read this beautifully written piece from a registered nurse about her experiences with the dying.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/while-the-majority-of-patients-die-well-some-do-suffer-in-the-end-20170831-gy8527.html
    Aubrey Perry goes to the heart of the weight that the religious right wields in parliament. He says there’s a lot riding on this SSM survey than just SSM. A good article.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/this-survey-is-about-much-more-than-samesex-marriage-20170831-gy83b6.html
    How would a yes vote for SSM affect Fathers Day?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/how-a-yes-vote-will-affect-fathers-day-20170901-gy8vx3.html
    Peter FitzSimons accuses Turnbull of being guilty of uttering hysterical nonsense.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbull-guilty-of-hysterical-nonsense-20170901-gy8xiu.html
    Trump helps out in Houston by kissing babies and taking selfies and caps off his usefulness by declaring today to be a national day of prayer.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/trump-visits-texas-to-meet-victims-of-harvey-floods-20170902-gy9mcw.html
    Documents that emerged this week offer insight into Robert Mueller’s investigation of the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia, legal experts say. And an obstruction of justice case against Trump may be shaping up.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/02/donald-trump-russia-investigation-obstruction-of-justice
    Fairfax’s retired religion editor Barney Zwartz writes in a long essay that the Catholic Church in Australia is fighting on three fronts – same-sex marriage, euthanasia and education funding – that will test its influence both inside and outside the church, with the people in the pews and the politicians and powerbrokers.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/the-catholic-churchs-triple-challenge-samesex-marriage-euthanasia-and-education-funding-20170901-gy8wst.html
    Australia and East Timor have reached agreement on developing billions of dollars of oil and gas reserves in the Timor Sea, ending years of bitter disagreement. A deal has been reached on a maritime boundary as well as sharing arrangements for the $US50 billion Greater Sunrise oil and gas field.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/australia-and-east-timor-strike-landmark-deal-to-end-greater-sunrise-dispute-20170902-gy9ibx.html

  27. Section 2 . . .

    Why our leaders lie – and we don’t care.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/motley-fool/why-our-leaders-lie-and-we-dont-care-20170901-gy961k.html
    Caitlin Fitzsimmons writes about the Aussie custom that we really don’t like . Buying rounds.
    http://www.smh.com.au/money/saving/buying-rounds-is-deeply-engrained-in-aussie-culture-but-widely-disliked-20170901-gy971p.html
    Why should Australian taxpayers invest $1 billion in Adani if the big four banks don’t think it’s commercially viable?
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/big-four-banks-reject-adanis-dirty-mine-but-governments-fund-it-anyway,10676
    Paul Malone looks at the range of standards when it comes to historical monuments.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/hyde-park-statue-damage-shows-a-reality-that-australia-must-confront-20170831-gy87th.html
    Imre Salusinszky begins with “The conditions in which politics and the media operate in NSW are unique and strange. It’s high time the public was let in on some of the backroom deals that shape NSW political news long before readers, listeners and viewers are allowed anywhere near it.” It’s all about “the drop” he says.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/exclusive-how-the-news-is-dropped-in-nsw-20170830-gy73aj.html
    According to the latest figures, while the tide of support for marriage equality is rising, the “Yes” campaign should redouble efforts that appeal to the undecided.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/marriage-equality-yes-vote-rises-but-124-still-undecided,10678
    Turnbull’s increased presence on the nation’s FM radio airwaves is a brave move – but it could backfire if voters believe he is “slumming”, according to a media expert.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2017/09/02/turnbull-fm-radio-blitz/

  28. Section 3 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Ron Tandberg goes to certain business ethics.

    Matt Golding on the prospect of a SSM survey yes outcome.

    Broelman has a good swipe at Erica.

    Paul Zanetti looks at values in marriage.

    Ron Tandberg and Captain Cook.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Andrew Dyson and a change of seasons for Turnbull.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
    John Shakespeare with Mesma getting a taste of her own medicine.
    \http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/illustrations-and-cartoons-by-john-shakespeare-20090909-fhba
    Mark Knight has a swipe at political correctness – it is, after all in a News Ltd paper.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/5c50b0796f32a65df0f5bd6a7e559fcc?width=1024

  29. Good Morning

    A good article on Brexit that has some telling implications for politics here.

    Cowardice is a progressive disease. Leave it untreated and it can kill. Everyone should know by now that the big lie of Brexit was not that it would deliver £350m a week to the NHS – although that was as brazen a political lie as Suez – but that Brexit would be easy. Everyone should know but not everyone does. Political cowards will not force the public to confront the unpalatable truth.

    That the electorate was deceived is certain. “The day after we vote we hold all the cards and we can choose the path we want,” declared Michael Gove in April last year . The voters should not worry their silly little heads because “there will continue to be free trade and access to the single market”, Boris Johnson continued. Brexit will free us, added David Davis. “Be under no doubt, we can do deals with our trading partners and we can do them quickly.”

    The Guardian’s Brexit Means … The three ‘whats’ of leaving the EU – Brexit Means podcast
    The team look at what kind of transition Britain wants, what might be in the government’s position papers and what size of divorce bill Brexiters are willing to pay
    Listen
    Instead of the promised utopia, we are in our weakest negotiating position since Munich. Far from skipping away down whatever path we want, we are doomed to trudge into a mire. Craig Oliver, David Cameron’s spin doctor, said that Brexit represented the defeat of “complex truth in the face of simple lies”. Britain is about to be taught that the trouble with complex truths is that you cannot deny them forever.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/02/fantasy-that-brexit-would-be-easy-is-costing-us-dear

  30. annabelcrabb: When people complained about the NBN, I used to think privately “Surely it can’t be that bad”. I hereby apologise to those people.

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