Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

The public evenly divided on dual citizens and One Nation Senators in burqas in federal parliament, with little change on voting behaviour.

No change to Labor’s 53-47 lead on two-party preferred from Essential Research this week, with the Coalition steady at 37% on the primary vote, Labor down one to 36%, Greens up one to 10% and One Nation steady on 8%. Other questions find an even split of opinion on whether dual citizens should be allowed to serve in parliament, with 41% for yes and 40% for no, and identical results for a question on whether the affected ministers should stand down. Fifty-nine per cent support a “citizenship audit” of parliamentarians, with 25% opposed. Pauline Hanson’s burqa stunt drew 39% approval and 38% disapproval. Forty per cent deemed the tax system fair compared with 51% for not fair, with majorities agreeing that corporations and “some wealthy people” don’t pay their fair share. Respondents were hard pressed to separate the last four prime ministerships as best/least bad, but with the order of preference running Rudd, Turnbull, Gillard, Abbott. This week’s survey was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1027, with the voting intention numbers being a combined result including last week’s survey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,196 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  3. [lizzie
    Ian Lowe: if you look at the Earth from space you can’t see the economy.     ]

    Also;

    BiGD: if you look at the Earth from space you can’t see any Countries.

  5. Agree Steve, neither free markets OR command economies have ever existed anywhere in a pure form, but neo-liberals always pose the question as either/or.
    That explains the government approach to Shorten. Because he wants to reduce the avenues for the rich to rort tax he must be a complete commie. Total BS of course.

  7. This is part of the reason why we have the current situation.

    For too long the Parties have basically collaborated and avoided the HC looking at these issues.

    They hide behind supporting legal opinions which are not tested before the Court.

    Now with the issue coming to a head the HC can give clarity to Section 44 (i).

    I think Hinch’s first instinct was the correct one as it would allow the Court to clarify this part of the Constitution, especially since he is relying on advice from Brandis.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/sep/01/derryn-hinch-second-thoughts-on-referring-himself-to-high-court

  8. Going on the way the OZ government is so good at punching itself in the face it must be a good bet that NZ Labour will win the election later this month.

  10. Trog

    Australia is undergoing exponential growth in solar as well. The last couple of years were the start of the steep part of the S curve.

    I think when you say exponential you really mean logistic.
    With exponential growth there is no S curve.
    Try doing an image search for “exponential vs logistic growth” and you will see what I mean.

  12. Question

    BigD,

    I think Hinch’s primary ‘correct instinct’ was to get his mug on the evening news.

    ****************************

    The ‘human headline’ suffering a recurring bout of R.D.D. – Relevance Deprivation Disorder

  13. Jolyon Wagg
    An S curve is what you get when you superimpose the real world on exponential growth. The real issue is the rate of growth associated with the steep part of the S curve which is roughly exponential. The leveling off of the S curve at the top is where it departs from the exponential.

  15. This Lateline script is not easy to follow, but shows how the Murray Darling is being cheated of water. A farmer creates levy banks which create a huge, shallow dam. Neighbour complains to council, but instead of demanding it be removed, Council suggests farmer applies for permit – after the event.

    http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2016/s4727336.htm

    Farmers on the Macintyre River in Queensland say the $13 billion national plan to save the Murray-Darling river system is a failure.

    They argue the plan, which pays irrigators millions of taxpayer dollars to save water, allows those same irrigators to catch replacement water off the flood plains – water the farmers say would otherwise flow back into the river system and on to New South Wales.

    It’s being described as a failure at all levels of government, resulting in large volumes of water being held back from states downstream.

  16. So sad what is happening in Myanmar.

    The level of antagonism towards the Muslim Rohingyas from the much of the Burmese population in the area was really quite extraordinary in my experience.

  19. victoria

    PhoenixRed

    Trump has cracked the sads Cos bit by bit his posse is being booted out of the WH. He knows the jig is up

    ********************************************************

    I think Rick Wilson knows something that we don’t : )

  20. victoria

    PhoenixRed

    Trump has cracked the sads Cos bit by bit his posse is being booted out of the WH. He knows the jig is up

    **************************************************

    Trump + Family & Co VS Mueller + Schneiderman + IRS + FBI + 5 Eyes + GCHQ + …….. I know which side to put my money on

  21. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/sep/01/mining-lobby-calls-for-controls-on-environmental-charities-spending-on-advocacy

    The report lays out ways in which the foreign-funded mining lobby has exerted political influence, most of which has aimed at reducing the tax revenue collected from those miners.

    The report notes:

    Lobbying by Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton has prevented an inquiry into the $75bn-a-year iron ore industry.
    The Minerals Council lobbies to maintain subsidies and tax concessions for mining companies that cost Australian taxpayers billions every year. In 2013, taxpayers paid $4.5bn in subsidies and concessions to the mining industry.
    The mining industry spent at least $100m from 2010-12 lobbying for the repeal of the minerals resource rent tax, or “mining tax”, which budget papers estimate has reduced tax revenue by $5.3bn.
    Hannah Aulby from the Australia Institute, author of the report, said: “Foreign corporate mining interests are attempting to influence government to help increase their profits. They are not acting in the public interest and in fact can distort sound economic decision making.”

    Aulby said many Australians thought of some of the big miners as Australian companies but they were mostly foreign-owned.

  24. victoria

    PhoenixRed

    Yep. Rick Wilson does indeed!

    ******************************************************

    It’s Monday Labor Day weekend in the US so Rick Wilsons column is a good read for it :

    Five Uneasy Pieces

    If You Think Trump’s Summer Was a Bummer, Wait ’Til Fall Starts

    The five factors that are going to combine this fall to create a perfect storm that will drive Trump crazy and bring our nation to the brink of peril.

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/if-you-think-trumps-summer-was-a-bummer-wait-til-fall-starts?source=twitter&via=desktop

  25. Jolyon Wagg @ #1010 Friday, September 1st, 2017 – 10:56 am

    I think when you say exponential you really mean logistic.
    With exponential growth there is no S curve.
    Try doing an image search for “exponential vs logistic growth” and you will see what I mean.

    I’ve tried and tried to convince Trog on this one, to no avail. He is in the grip of RenewEconomy fever, and nothing is going to shake his conviction.

    Anyone interested in the real data can get it here, current up to last month – http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/RET/Forms-and-resources/Postcode-data-for-small-scale-installations

    It is also graphed here, but this graph is now 3 months old – http://pv-map.apvi.org.au/analyses

    The data is absolutely linear, and has been since … well … forever! No exponential growth, not even logistical growth. Just simple linear growth.

  26. Trog Sorrenson @ #1013 Friday, September 1st, 2017 – 11:03 am

    Jolyon Wagg
    An S curve is what you get when you superimpose the real world on exponential growth. The real issue is the rate of growth associated with the steep part of the S curve which is roughly exponential. The leveling off of the S curve at the top is where it departs from the exponential.

    Bollocks.

  28. victoria

    PhoenixRed

    And Wilson says this

    Rick Wilson
    Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson

    In my article today, the 5th point is the most important.

    ******************************************

    I think they will have to re-open Alcatraz to house Trump, Family. GOPs on the take, Manafort, Flynn, Sater etc etc

  33. Pedantic bullshit. A logistic curve and an S curve are the same thing. It is essentially exponential growth with a flattening at the end due to “logistic” or other constraints.
    Globally, solar pv growth has been exponential for many years, with compound annual growth rate or around 42 – 46% depending on whose numbers you use.

  34. victoria

    PhoenixRed

    Have to say I am finding the musings of Australian Peter Evans on twitter tres interesting

    ********************************************

    Agreed – knows a lot more than he admits to …… I have a feeling that there are quite a few ‘feeders’ to the cause with deeper backgrounds than they publically admit

  35. I wonder if anyone has asked our treasurer recently how come growth has been so low since 2013, one of the lowest in the OECD, despite the scrapping on the mining tax and carbon tax.

    If asked he better not mention the phrase ‘tailing off of the mining boom’.

  37. @ P1 – note that both of your data sources are ‘small scale’. Your conclusions are irrelevant to the conversation.

    Go to here, http://pv-map.apvi.org.au/power-stations

    Click Download Data, and do a sumifs. I did a tally of all large scale (i.e. filter anything below 1 MW) operational as at 1 Jan each year.

    The numbers are

    1 -> 5 -> 16 -> 19 -> 39 -> 205 -> 307. Your favourite website is predicting that the next number in the pattern will be 659.

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/2017-mark-transformational-year-large-scale-solar-australia-38719/

    Fitting that to either linear or exponential is tricky, and most likely people’s conclusions will be biased towards what they want to see.

    One could argue that you should ignore the all but the most recent 3 data points, and claim something roughly linear from them.

    One could argue that the trend more closely correlates to exponential at this stage, and that the most recent year was lower than the year before due to a single, extremely large project completing, and that if 2017 comes in as expected, that is continuing to look exponential.

    Ultimately, we don’t have the data to determine at this stage.

  38. John Reidy
    I wonder if anyone has asked our treasurer recently how come growth has been so low since 2013, one of the lowest in the OECD, despite the scrapping on the mining tax and carbon tax.
    And why the deficit keeps on growing faster than under Labor, and why power prices have rocketed in an increase equivalent to four carbon taxes.

    Were he to answer, he’d probably say it’s Bill Shorten’s fault, and Kevin Rudd’s and Julia Gillard and the Unions and “Socialists” plus identity politics, asylum seekers, “welfare bludgers” and “political correctness”.

  39. victoria

    phoenixRed

    most definitely. Just so many tenacles to this imbroglio. Good luck with the movie I say!!

    ********************************************************

    I think George Clooney has been mentioned to take a certain male civilian reporters role …….. : )

    …….. they will need a cast bigger than Ben Hur of Russians to fill all the roles of money launderers, loan sharks and racketeers that have transpired in the Trump & Family Art Of The Deal that have operated over so many years …….

    I bet Eric Schneiderman has trouble sleeping at night with the excitement he has within in the thought of tearing them apart

  40. phoenixRed

    hoping Schneiderman doesnt have too many more sleepless nights. would love to see this whole shit show wrap up sooner than later!!

  42. victoria

    phoenixRed

    hoping Schneiderman doesnt have too many more sleepless nights. would love to see this whole shit show wrap up sooner than later!!

    *******************************************************

    I think there has been a few hints – Wilson, Dworkin, Tea Pain etc – that a change is in the air – even some of the crims like Sater said in a week or so things will happen ……… the US has suffered enough in natural and man-made disasters ….

  43. Grattan has a go working out who will replace Turnbull after they lose the next election.

    Conveniently forgetting that the 30th consecutive Newspoll is fast approaching, and Turnbull’s chances of making it to the next election are slim.

  44. phoenixRed

    yep. hard to see how much of this Trump shit show we can take without irrepairable damage being done. hope not long to go.

  48. Michael Pascoe @MichaelPascoe01
    ·
    11m
    And you get the PM from Snowy River video at no extra cost: Letters from suppliers won’t stop the blackouts

    And LNP has their own priorities wrong again!

    Attacking welfare but not listening to people!

  49. Voice Endeavour @ #1037 Friday, September 1st, 2017 – 12:57 pm

    Go to here, http://pv-map.apvi.org.au/power-stations

    Click Download Data, and do a sumifs. I did a tally of all large scale (i.e. filter anything below 1 MW) operational as at 1 Jan each year.

    I think you have a problem with your calculations. In any case, it is clear that 2015 was a bumper year for large scale solar, but 2016 had less, and 2017 (pro-rata) has had less again. Of course, as you point out, there are simply too few numbers in this data to draw any real conclusions, but this is hardly “exponential, growth”. In fact, it doesn’t look like growth at all.

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