Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

The public evenly divided on dual citizens and One Nation Senators in burqas in federal parliament, with little change on voting behaviour.

No change to Labor’s 53-47 lead on two-party preferred from Essential Research this week, with the Coalition steady at 37% on the primary vote, Labor down one to 36%, Greens up one to 10% and One Nation steady on 8%. Other questions find an even split of opinion on whether dual citizens should be allowed to serve in parliament, with 41% for yes and 40% for no, and identical results for a question on whether the affected ministers should stand down. Fifty-nine per cent support a “citizenship audit” of parliamentarians, with 25% opposed. Pauline Hanson’s burqa stunt drew 39% approval and 38% disapproval. Forty per cent deemed the tax system fair compared with 51% for not fair, with majorities agreeing that corporations and “some wealthy people” don’t pay their fair share. Respondents were hard pressed to separate the last four prime ministerships as best/least bad, but with the order of preference running Rudd, Turnbull, Gillard, Abbott. This week’s survey was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1027, with the voting intention numbers being a combined result including last week’s survey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,196 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. TallebudgeraLurker

    the optic is terrible.

    That’s the point, especially when Canavan (for example) says he ‘works for’ the mining industry.

  2. Bizarre. Last night I was able to see comments past 11pm, but now the latest one is 8:44pm yesterday.
    edit – oh, can see them now after refreshing the page.

  3. From that Laura Tingle article. I recommend sharing it far and wide

    Credibility train wreck

    But we are witnessing a train wreck in the credibility of the business community, and this will inevitably affect the pressure it can exert on the political process.

    The Nine Network’s Tracy Grimshaw observed to the Prime Minister on Wednesday night that energy prices “have exploded under competition”. “Competition hasn’t done what it is supposed to do,” she said.

  4. Also from today’s GG. Saying no to SSM is all about you guessed it freedom !
    No I don’t get it either.

    Next stop will be patriotism, voting No, in memory of our brave ANZACS.

  5. Also from today’s GG. Saying no to SSM is all about you guessed it freedom !

    That would only make sense if it was being made compulsory.

  6. The Philippines has confirmed that it will accept an offer from Julie Bishop to assist in the country’s fight against Islamic State-linked militants. As fighting continues in the city of Marawi, a spokesperson for President Rodrigo Duterte said Australia would not provide combat troops, instead providing training and technical assistance.

    I doubt that Islamic State will see any difference between providing combat troops or assisting with training and technical assistance

  7. TallebudgeraLurker

    This lobbyist was (recently) previously Bill Shorten’s COS and prior to that some years ago was the Qld ALP State Secretary.

    If this guy was COS to Shorten and is now representing Adani, it seems a pretty good reason why we need a Green’s party.
    Him and the likes of Mar’n Ferguson.

  8. Sorry, Trog, are you suggesting that no Green staffer will ever take up a position post-politics which you might disapprove of?

    I think it’s one of those cases where it’s evil when Labor does it but when an ex Green staffer does, it’ll be perfectly acceptable.

  9. Adrian

    I don’t think the Greens have lost sight of environmental issues. They have been advocating about Adani all along.

    What we see is the Greens getting more coverage on other issues because the government has just been so bad on inequality which is also one of the core parts of the Greens from inception.

    I agree the Greens need a stronger leader however I am not fooled by media coverage into thinking the Greens care any less about the environment.

  10. guytaur

    I’m not fooled by media coverage either, which is why I frequently check Green websites to see what they’re putting out. I also look at what the Greens are doing on the ground.

    So when I say the Greens aren’t pulling their weight on the environment, it’s based on evidence.

  11. People seem to think that all political staffers are doing their job because they are ideologically on a certain side or mission … to some people, a job is just a job.

  12. zoomster

    I think your view is biased.

    A claim that might be made against me. However what I see is the same as always. Its just other issues have come up the agenda due to this government.

    When the Greens had some power to influence they negotiated with Labor for real climate change policies. Those polices were a credit to all involved. Including Labor and the cross bench as well as the Greens.

    Denticare was still discussed when Labor was in power. Now its wages etc because of the LNP attacks. The Greens supported the unions when Howard did it and are now that Turnbull is doing it.

    I don’t see massive change. Except for the style of leadership. There the Greens do have a problem

  13. An example of the problem I see for the Greens. Bill Shorten has been doing daily pressers over the parliamentary break.

    Not seen the same from Di Natale. So people are filling in the blanks as the Greens leader has gone invisible.

  14. zoomster
    I am no apologist for the Greens, but they are a lot more pro environment than Labor, which doesn’t seem to know whether it’s punched out or drilled on the issue.
    Remember, at one stage Shorten was opposed to a carbon tax.

  15. guytaur

    Not seen the same from Di Natale. So people are filling in the blanks as the Greens leader has gone invisible.

    Agree with that.

  16. Trog

    Remember, at one stage Shorten was opposed to a carbon tax.

    __________________________________________

    That’s the kind of trite prejudicial one liner that the Libs do so much better. Everyone changes their mind and position. Keynes’s quote is so well-known I’m not going to repeat it here.

  17. TS

    Bill Shorten was once against marriage equality. I give him and Labor credit for learning. Not as fast as I would like. However yes your point is right the Greens are more focused on the environment than Labor. Labor has attacked them on this basis in the past and no doubt will again.

    The Greens applauded Jay Weatherill for his actions on renewable energy. I don’t know what more they could have done.

    I truly put this down to the Greens leadership problems which have taken a front seat since the mistake of Di Natale as leader. Party divisions highlighted invisibility in the media. All symptoms of weak leadership.

    Like or hate Brown and Milne they did not have these problems.

  18. Trump’s Mental State Worsens As He Snaps Into Dark Moods And Turns On Those Near Him

    The Washington Post reported:

    Behind the scenes during a summer of crisis, however, Trump appears to pine for the days when the Oval Office was a bustling hub of visitors and gossip, over which he presided as impresario. He fumes that he does not get the credit he thinks he deserves from the media, nor the allegiance from fellow Republican leaders he is owed. He boasts about his presidency in superlatives, but confidants privately fret about his suddenly dark moods.

    “He’s having a very hard time,” one friend who spoke with Trump this week said of the president. “He doesn’t like the way the media’s handling him. He doesn’t like how Kelly’s handling him. He’s turning on people that are very close to him.”

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/08/31/trumps-mental.html

  19. TPOF

    That’s the kind of trite prejudicial one liner that the Libs do so much better

    It is the truth. Shorten is still unconvincing on climate change and energy policy.

  20. TS

    I am happy to see Mr Shorten attack inequality and thus the necessary regulation of Free Markets and the rejection of neo liberalism.

    This will inevitably see regulation accepted. Thus the whole narrative against the carbon price including the now obsolete carbon tax as the market mechanism kicks in has lost its potency. There is a reason the LNP are losing the energy debate and thus the climate debate.

  21. TPOF

    Keynes’s quote is so well-known I’m not going to repeat it here.

    A quick Google search shows a lack of consensus on what Keynes actually said.
    Which quote are you referring to?

  22. The ALP allowed a conscience vote in parliament in 2012 on ME and Shorten voted yes.
    Turnbull voted no.
    The pundits expected the ALP would dump the carbon price after the 2013 election and were surprised when Shorten didn’t. I wasn’t surprised.

  23. guytaur

    I am happy to see Mr Shorten attack inequality and thus the necessary regulation of Free Markets and the rejection of neo liberalism.

    So am I, it is a strong position. Also climate change and neo liberalism are joined at the hip.
    I just don’t think Shorten is anywhere near as convincing on environmental issues as he should be for a political leader in which I would have total confidence.

  24. I’m just gonna start that linear vs exponential debate and then run 😉

    At least in China, it’s looking exponential.

  25. That the Greens have attempted to shift to the right and from a party of protest to mainstream relevance is obvious to all.

    The push to the left in OZ politics may only be slight, but has come entirely from the ALP.

  26. TS

    I don;t think Mr Shorten has backtracked on the NDIS he created. In the same way I think he has not backtracked on the environment.

    I just see that the environment has descencded into a coal v wind narrative as the deniers try and continue to blame Labor for power prices instead of their polices creating a lack of certainty for investors and thus crippling the investment needed to lower power prices.

    This flows on to the whole free market v regulation debate. Until Labor wins that the environment will take second place. This is not the fault of either the Greens or Labor. Its the fault of the denials government that is setting the agenda.

  27. VE
    I am also going to run.
    Australia is undergoing exponential growth in solar as well. The last couple of years were the start of the steep part of the S curve.

  28. guytaur
    Shorten’s NDIS is a commendable achievement.
    Specifically where I think Shorten has drooped the ball is in communicating the economic advantages, jobs and cheap power that come from a rapid transition to renewables. This will transform the economy. Labor has to sell this.
    Must run.

  29. Trog

    I think Mark Butler makes all the right noises, but he doesn’t have as much impact as he might. Partly the fault of media?

  30. The ALP have made the argument about renewables economic and have won the debate.

    That is why advertising for coal now bang’s on about clean technology. Bullshit of course, but an acceptance that they have lost the debate.

  31. CTar1 @ #892 Friday, September 1st, 2017 – 6:19 am

    On the Urban Dictionary entry proposing it as a story line mechanism I don’t even know where to start!

    I don’t know the origin of the term – it may indeed be as the Urban Dictionary suggests. But my kids and their friends certainly do use “ships” the way I expressed it – i.e. “John ships Mary”, and have done so since they were teenagers.

  32. “Free markets” are a fiction, or maybe a convenient theoretical concept for teaching economics, like the hypothetical “frictionless surface” physics teachers invoke to discuss the laws of motion. But neither exists in the real world, especially in Australia where the major markets seem to be governed by an iron law that markets become monopolies, duopolies or tight oligopolies.

    Market players don’t compete except on boondoggles like brand image. Strong players will always try to dominate the market and tilt the playing field in their favour. To the extent allowed, they’ll collude to keep prices high and bar new entrants.

    And markets are unstable, alternatively driven by greed, fear and panic. They inevitably fail, as any number of recessions, depressions, crashes, bubbles and arguably wars attest. Then the wider community, through Government, has to clean up the mess.

    And markets only work on things where someone can make a buck on a short to medium term horizon – 10 years at most, but more typically less than 5. There are many things that markets simply cannot deal with left to themselves. Climate change is one. Market players through their political wing seem to have seen off attempts to create an artificial market for the time being.

    ‘Neoliberalism’ should have been completely discredited by the Great Depression, and for about 40 years or so that seemed to be the case. But maybe greed conquers all.

  33. A quick Google search shows a lack of consensus on what Keynes actually said.Which quote are you referring to?

    “No more drugs for me, pussy and religion that’s all i need.”?
    or is it
    “Reach for the stars so if you fall you land on a cloud”

  34. Bevan Shields‏Verified account
    @BevanShields

    Towering gum trees are being cut down around Parliament to make way for the obscene new steel fence #auspol

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