Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

The public evenly divided on dual citizens and One Nation Senators in burqas in federal parliament, with little change on voting behaviour.

No change to Labor’s 53-47 lead on two-party preferred from Essential Research this week, with the Coalition steady at 37% on the primary vote, Labor down one to 36%, Greens up one to 10% and One Nation steady on 8%. Other questions find an even split of opinion on whether dual citizens should be allowed to serve in parliament, with 41% for yes and 40% for no, and identical results for a question on whether the affected ministers should stand down. Fifty-nine per cent support a “citizenship audit” of parliamentarians, with 25% opposed. Pauline Hanson’s burqa stunt drew 39% approval and 38% disapproval. Forty per cent deemed the tax system fair compared with 51% for not fair, with majorities agreeing that corporations and “some wealthy people” don’t pay their fair share. Respondents were hard pressed to separate the last four prime ministerships as best/least bad, but with the order of preference running Rudd, Turnbull, Gillard, Abbott. This week’s survey was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1027, with the voting intention numbers being a combined result including last week’s survey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,196 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. “_Scott Morrison Treasurer says higher profits should mean wage rises ‘flow through’ soon”

    As my mum has always said to me, “Tomorrow never comes”.

    Anyway, all I can see is the tide going out on wages. Streets ice creams being only the latest example of proposing a 46%!!! Pay cut for it’s workers in a ‘take it or leave it’ scenario.

  2. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Andrew Dyson and what the government wants with justice at the moment.

    Cathy Wilcox and the new equality.

    Cathy with a good explanation of what Morrison is branding as socialism.

    John Shakespeare and the letters the power retailers will send to us at Christmas.

    Paul Zanetti also disparages the letter.

    Sean Leahy nails the effectiveness of Turnbull’s “breakthrough” with the power companies.

    At the High Court with Broelman.

    David Pope conflates the statues issue with the government’s attempt to rebrand Shorten.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0
    Jon Kudelka with the drive-thru High Court.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/c7462e7ee634101e3c9b22420b3fd5cf
    Another cartoon on the Trump vs Kim match up.

    Mark Knight on the signing of Dustin Martin’s big contract.

    Glen Le Lievre gives Turnbull a reminder.

    Sean Leahy gives us a North Korean BBQ.

    David Rowe has the flood reaching the Oval Office.

    Mark Knight introduces the Section 44 monster.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/f7ee8becc13fbe0c904df42a329795df?width=1024

  3. Stunning Evidence Suggests The Republican Party May Have Taken Illegal Russian Donations In 2016

    Evidence from notes taken off of Paul Manafort’s cell from the infamous meetings with Russians at Trump Tower has RNC written near the word donations.

    NBC News reported:

    Paul Manafort’s notes from a controversial Trump Tower meeting with Russians during the 2016 presidential campaign included the word “donations,” near a reference to the Republican National Committee, two sources briefed on the evidence told NBC News.

    Manafort’s notes, typed on a smart phone and described by one briefed source as cryptic, were turned over to the House and Senate intelligence committees and to Special Counsel Robert Mueller. They contained the words “donations,” and “RNC” in close proximity, the sources said.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/08/31/stunning-evidence-suggests-republican-party-illegal-russian-donations-2016.html

  4. Trump’s Own Lawyers Confirm That The President Is Under Federal Criminal Investigation

    Trump’s own lawyers submitted memos to Special Counsel Robert Mueller arguing that the President did not obstruct justice, which confirms that Trump is under federal criminal investigation.

    Trump’s lawyers are arguing that the President has unlimited power to hire and fire for whatever reason he wants and that Comey is a liar who isn’t telling the truth about their meetings. Argument number one doesn’t apply because the President is not allowed to hire and fire at will if the motive for the action is to obstruct an ongoing federal investigation. Argument number two is hopeless because Comey is known and well regarded as a person of integrity and character while the President can’t make it through a full day without telling at least five lies.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/08/31/trump-9.html

  5. Trump pledges $1 million of his personal money to Harvey relief: White House

    President Donald Trump will pledge $1 million of his own money to relief efforts for Hurricane Harvey, White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said on Thursday.

    “I am happy to tell you that (Trump) would like to join in the efforts that a lot of the people that we have seen across this country do and he’s pledging $1 million of personal money to the fund,” Sanders told reporters at a White House briefing.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/trump-pledges-1-million-of-his-personal-money-to-harvey-relief-white-house/

  6. ‘We only kill black people’: Georgia cop caught on video reassuring nervous white woman during traffic stop

    A police officer in Cobb County, Georgia, is under investigation after dash cam footage showed him telling a woman that he pulled over that police officers “only kill black people.”

    WSB-TV Atlanta reports that dashboard camera footage it obtained through an open records request shows Cobb County Police Lt. Greg Abbott trying to ease the fears of a woman he pulled over who was reluctant to move her hands to pull out her license and registration.

    “Remember, we only kill black people,” the officer said. “We only kill black people, right?”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/we-only-kill-black-people-georgia-cop-caught-on-video-reassuring-nervous-white-woman-during-traffic-stop/

  7. Comment on the Kenny article on Trumble:

    he’s a real nowhere man,
    sitting in his nowhere land,
    making all his nowhere plans
    for nobody,

    doesn’t have a point of view,
    knows not where he’s going too.
    he’s as blind as he can be,
    just sees what he wants to see,
    no where man can you see us at all,

    nowhere man please listen,
    even though your teeth glisten,
    nowhere man please go away
    we don’t need you anyway………

  8. PR

    I am not surprised at the Maddow ratings. Listening at the moment is like tuning into a Le Carre spy novel as Maddow joins the dots..

  9. It appears, if you can believe the Daily TurdBurgler, that Turnbull has morphed so much into Abbott, that he is aping the propensity to rort travel claims

    “PRIME Minister Malcolm Turnbull has been forced to pay back part of his travel expenses nine months after pocketing more than $1000 in allowances when he visited remote indigenous communities in South Australia.

    Mr Turnbull will pay for the costs after The Daily Telegraph made inquiries about why the travel allowance had been claimed for accommodation that was provided free.

    Finance Department expenditure reports show Mr Turnbull claimed $1130 in accommodation costs for two nights when visiting Umuwa and Scotdesco, in far northern South Australia in October 30 and October 31 last year.

    But this newspaper can reveal the Umuwa accommodation was paid for by the South Australian government, not by Mr Turnbull. And the accommodation in Scotdesco costs just $60 per person.

    When contacted on Monday, the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet declined to comment, instead sending a request for an invoice to the South Australian government, despite the trip taking place nine months ago.

    A spokesman for the SA State Development Department confirmed Mr Turnbull had “stayed in accommodation owned by the state government of South Australia at Umuwa on the Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara Lands”.

    “………….

    “Mr Turnbull is allowed a special rate of travel allowance because he is Prime Minister. His spokesman said: “The Prime Minister’s Office acted within the rules at all times.”

    Umuwa is one of the most isolated communities in the country, with high unemployment and a high proportion of welfare recipients. Those on the dole receive about $38 a day. Separate Finance Department documents show former prime minister Tony Abbott did not claim any travel allowance when he visited Arnhem Land in late 2014.

    But sources close to Mr Turnbull noted revelations at a Senate estimates hearing in 2015 that another of Mr Abbott’s trips, to the Torres Strait, had cost taxpayers $179,077, including $37,000 for the cancellation of a hotel booking.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/malcolm-turnbull-overclaimed-accommodation-allowance-for-twonight-trip/news-story/bb09d4435b181246175d7d22459f99b0

  10. A very slim on substance article from Mark Kenny, which is probably all one can expect when one is dealing with flimsy fantasies.

    Part of Kenny’s ‘Malcolm resurgence” is based on the premise that the dual citizenship thing is to blame for the government’s poor polling. Whilst it obviously doesn’t help, the government’s polling was dire before it all blew up, so resolving that issue isn’t going to help.

    The other issue Kenny thinks is causing the government’s woes is marriage equality. He argues that if this and the citizenship issues are all sorted out by the end of the year, ALL Malcolm has to do is unite the party and he’ll be in a winning position.

    There is always in politics a faint faint chance that elections won’t turn out the way that polling suggests. But successful resolution of S44 and marriage equality won’t solve Malcolm’s problems, because they didn’t cause them in the first place.

  11. zoomster

    ALL Malcolm has to do is unite the party and he’ll be in a winning position.

    Understatement of the month (although there are still 29 days to go!). 😉

  12. aussexparty: The No campaign has chosen to campaign against #MarriageEquality by stigmatising the presence of LGBTI students in our schools. Pathetic.

  13. Stretching credibility, Anastacia. I used to respect you.

    Stop Adani‏
    @stopadani

    Laugh or cry? @AnnastaciaMP says Adani’s lobbyist, working on her campaign while paid by Adani, is just like any other volunteer #StopAdani

  14. From Grattan’s article:

    ‘Morrison is an ideological chameleon..’

    I’m struggling to think what this is a euphemism for – jellyback? intellectual vacuum? whatever a non conviction politician is?

  15. ‘In contrast, Abbott has the time, inclination and intellectual heft to set out directions, with numerous articles, speeches and radio interviews.’

    OK, sorry Michelle – anyone who thinks Abbott’s brainfarts are a sign of intellectual anything is seriously deluded.

  16. guytaur

    PR

    I am not surprised at the Maddow ratings. Listening at the moment is like tuning into a Le Carre spy novel as Maddow joins the dots..

    ***********************************************

    Agreed Guytaur – she is like a dog at a bone – very determined in keeping on message with the issue ….

  17. Morrison’s failure to use being Treasurer to further advance his prospects once again points to the CPG’s disconnect with reality.

    When it first was rumoured he was about to become Treasurer, many of us here questioned why it was seen by the CPG as self evident that he should be given the role.

    Just as Malcolm’s failure to deliver what the CPG expected he would was not a shock to most here (and I, at least, had argued for years that he would fail as PM for precisely the reasons he is failing as PM) that ScoMo was nothing more than a catchy hashtag was fairly obvious to most observers.

    Just not the ones in Canberra. You know, the experts.

  18. I’ve been wondering why I haven’t been bothered following links to articles as much. Having read Kenny and Grattan’s contributions today, the words ‘waste of time’ are, for some reason, washing around in my consciousness.

  19. Really enjoyed Aly’s article, so much more honest than Kenny praying for a miracle in the High Court so as to get the government back from omnishambles to general bad government

  20. Kenny is just like Trumble. Doing what he has to to get through to next week.

    Next week’s problems will of course come as a complete surprise to him and so the response will be out of context and too late.

  21. Once again PB decides to have a sporadic refresh to show people have already posted what I wanted to say. Hitting refresh doesn’t seem to work all the time

  22. No one needs a payrise when Malcolm is here to help keep costs down.

    Kristina Keneally‏Verified account @KKeneally · Aug 30

    Wondering when @TurnbullMalcolm will tell the heads of Coles & Woolies to write letters letting Australians know about their weekly specials

  23. Kushners’ China Deal Flop Was Part of Much Bigger Hunt for Cash – owes millions

    Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s son-in-law and top adviser, wakes up each morning to a growing problem that will not go away. His family’s real estate business, Kushner Cos., owes hundreds of millions of dollars on a 41-story office building on Fifth Avenue. It has failed to secure foreign investors, despite an extensive search, and its resources are more limited than generally understood. As a result, the company faces significant challenges.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-kushners-china-deal-flop-was-part-of-much-bigger-hunt-for-cash/

  24. lizzie

    We’ve been playing a bit of a game in this house, listing all the companies we’d like to see Turnbull confront about higher prices…

  25. My view is the problem with the Canberra Press Gallery is that they are out of touch in their bubble and still in denial about this.

    This is of course due to the dominance of News journalists in the Gallery. Things are improving with a few more publications joining recently. However the buy in to the Murdoch is mainstream Australia is big.

    Now reality of the fact Neo Liberalism is an extreme right fantasy is starting to bite. Some journalists that work for News will not admit it but are probably uncomfortable with Murdoch supporting Trump. Not uncomfortable enough to quit working for News though.

    While Murdoch dominates the gallery the journalists will not change. Thats why CBS owning Ten is such a big deal. A blow to the dominate the media and thus skew debate to the right and the narrative that extreme neo liberal policy is acceptable and not a discredited fantasy.

  26. The Federal Government has denied it is trying to silence environmental activists, as prominent voices in the environment and charities sectors speak out against a series of regulatory changes.

    Key points:
    •Federal government is proposing changes to regulations dealing with charities
    •Some environmental groups could face the loss of their tax-deductible charity status
    •Charities concerned about appointment of coal seam gas company boss
    •Government will not re-appoint charities commissioner

    As Treasury canvasses a proposal to limit tax concessions for green groups, there have been changes at the top of the Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission (ACNC), including the appointment of Peter Hogan, chairman of coal seam gas company, Carbon Energy, to the regulator’s advisory board.

    That has raised the ire of environment groups, many of which are registered charities.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-31/charities-crackdown-threatens-status-of-environmental-groups/8859792

  27. Confessions

    There was a glitch that had me in moderation for a week. No posts got through. Its thanks to William and the Crikey customer service team that the techs were informed and the problem fixed yesterday.

  28. zoomster

    I’m very angry about this “blame the customer” theme on power charges, saying it’s their own fault if they don’t apply for a new provider every year. Now the suggestion is that there will be ‘apps’ to make it ‘easy’.

    I’m thinking of the people without computers or smartphones, the tired and sick, the old, or the flat-out busy working families, who don’t have the energy or ability to deal with constant changes.

  29. joshgnosis: These two stories basically sum up the debate. No claim they’re silenced while demanding Yes side apologises for wanting a yes vote. pic.twitter.com/tAWC7pxgVg

  30. guytaur

    I occasionally get stuck in moderation. I have found the solution is to delete the offending post, then refresh or even reboot, and everything comes back to normal (except of course that particular post is gone for ever).

  31. lizzie

    You have found the one thing I did not try. if it happens again I will give it a go.

    However this lasted over several threads by William and I could not post on any of the other blogs as well. So I doubt that would have helped. I will bear in mind to try next time.

  32. lizzie

    At the end of the day, the cost of providing power is the cost of providing power. Unless companies are reaping outrageous profits, the customer cost is the customer cost.

    If more people take up discounted offers, then either companies will do away with discounts or they’ll charge more somewhere else.

    What gets me is that we appear to have gone from valuing customer loyalty to sneering at it. Why is it a bad thing that most customers have stuck with the same company for more than five years? Isn’t that what should happen? If anything, loyal customers should be the ones getting the discounts and special offers.

    As my husband says, we don’t want to spend our time looking around and comparing deals, and then doing the same thing in six months time. We’d be happy to just have one provider.

  33. lizzie @ #914 Friday, September 1st, 2017 – 7:43 am

    Stretching credibility, Anastacia. I used to respect you.

    Stop Adani‏
    @stopadani

    Laugh or cry? @AnnastaciaMP says Adani’s lobbyist, working on her campaign while paid by Adani, is just like any other volunteer #StopAdani

    Do we know for instance that he personally represents Adani? I have no insider knowledge

    May I suggest that you Google the fellow’s name. This lobbyist was (recently) previously Bill Shorten’s COS and prior to that some years ago was the Qld ALP State Secretary. He is in a lobbying business with an ex-LNP staffer – it is a weird arrangement but understandable – in the past some of my business partners were to the right of most members of the HR Nichols Society or so it seemed and some of us were quite left thinking.

    No doubt he has strong Labor credentials but the optic is terrible – as a professional I hope that he can keep the two matters separate. It is something that many have had to do in their professional careers.

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