A big week of polling, with the weekly Essential, fortnightly Newspoll and YouGov and monthly ReachTEL landing all at once, and their combined effect is to shake the BludgerTrack aggregate out of its lethargy with a solid move to Labor. The two contributors to this were Newspoll, whose 53-47 to 54-46 movement this fortnight is almost precisely replicated by BludgerTrack, but also by ReachTEL, whose primary vote numbers were a lot worse for the Coalition than the 52-48 two-party headline suggested. All of which causes Labor to gain four on the seat projection, including one apiece in each of the four largest states. The Coalition has taken a particularly heavy hit on the primary vote, but it’s One Nation rather than Labor that has yielded the advantage. A new set of leadership numbers from Newspoll sends both leaders downwards on the net satisfaction trend, with Bill Shorten gaining fractionally on preferred prime minister.
https://www.wired.com/story/machines-taught-by-photos-learn-a-sexist-view-of-women
Sales opening question to Turnbull could have been distilled from the reflexes of millions of voters, who will say they can’t think of anything Turnbull has “done”. All he is known for is disappointment.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-spent-more-on-travel-than-past-three-prime-ministers-combined-20170828-gy64ha.html
http://www.theage.com.au/business/cbd/would-they-really-pick-a-former-commonwealth-bank-exec-like-john-osullivan-to-head-asic-20170827-gy5a1j.html
AUGUST 29 2017 – 5:47AM
Would they really pick a former Commonwealth Bank exec like John O’Sullivan to head ASIC?
Colin Kruger, CBD
As every possible regulator gangs up on Commonwealth Bank – offering the public almost all the fun you would expect from a Royal Commission – are we really going to see a former employee of the bank head up one of these very same regulators?
When I used to interview people for jobs within the public service decades ago, my favourite question to ask was always: “can you tell us about one of your major achievements”.
The candidates had always come prepared with all their stock answers (and lies) relevant to the selection criteria (and of course I asked questions about them as well) but being asked about a major achievement was an excellent means of sorting out the field. It tested motivation, ability to take a systematic view of problems and ability to communicate, all of which are generally important in job performance.
That’s the question that Leigh Sales asked Turnbull last night and it exposed all of Turnbull’s weaknesses in one fell swoop. He’d come with all the talking points (and lies) but was unable to capitalise on them because he fell at the barrier.
Actually the word I used was “initiatives” rather than “achievements” – meant they couldn’t just rely on a task that had been prescribed for them
A ton of bricks would be appropriate to land on these mongrels!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-29/rogue-employers-robbing-staff-by-dodging-super-payments-ato/8851216
Windhover
How is an open invitation to tell us of something he feels proudest of achieving as PM a “gotcha” ? ……………Unless of course if he had nothing he could mention.
There would be merit in replicating the position that applies to directors of c
There would be merit in replicating the position that applies to directors of companies which don’t remit PAYE. One letter to directors re the companies’ obligations then direct liability,
poroti @ #1208 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 12:13 pm
See my comment above. Gets them every time.
Of course that 35% primary share for the government is, say 30% for Trumble and co, and 5% for the Nationals.
As the Nats really don’t like the PM, he really doesn’t have that much support for a ‘PM for life ‘.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2017/08/25/it-rains-solid-diamonds-on-uranus-and-neptune/?utm_term=.f98e6f5fe1d3
so who’s put Roberta Williams up to annoy Bill..
zoidlord @ #1048 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 10:32 pm
Only that one comment.
ajm @ #1205 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 11:44 am
I thought much the same, but you have put it much better.
He really struggled.
JOHN BOY @ #1214 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 12:36 pm
Rex Douglas.
Obviously.
Caught some grabs of Q&A. Dan is the man.
Love this song…..
Nyul Nyul Girl
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUNKcNV0Yqc
Oh, I just love how the media is struggling to ‘balance’ the whole dual citizenship MP issue. I heard on ABC radio this morning that Katy Gallagher rushed to deny the DT article but refused to produce documents proving she renounced her Ecuadorian citizenship – and then hurridly added – or documents proving she never had it. And I notice the ABC News website on her citizenship has alongside it a big link to the article “Why Does This Keep Happening”.
I really am enjoying them squirming in their attempts to avoid giving the ALP any credit (without qualifiers).
Why don’t the media harass the PHONs, Liberals or Nationals to produce their documents!?! Why do they have to try and find a way to drag Labor down to the level of incompetence that the others are at?
Some interesting stuff in todays Essential Report on Tax.
The concerns about corporations and wealthy individuals not paying enough tax far outweighs general concerns on the tax system and people own concerns that they are paying too much tax.
http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Essential-Report_290817.pdf
Really Simon?
I thought he was a bit all over the place. Quite disappointing viewing considering the panel make-up.
C@tmomma @ #1219 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 1:10 pm
Because Labor is the pretender trying to rest control from those for whom it is their natural right.
Just about everything the CPG makes sense in light of this underlying assumption.
C@tmomma @ #1219 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 1:10 pm
This should go in a wiki somewhere as a good example of a “rhetorical question” : )
**Why do they have to try and find a way to drag Labor down to the level of incompetence that the others are at?**
Imagine, for a minute, a world where the media in Australia admit that the ALP do governance better than the rest.
Gareth, I only saw a coupla grabs. And, due to bad experiences, I have low expectations of the non politician guests -especially the musician and comedian variety – on Q&A.
But the grabs of Sultan showed he nailed his point.
It certainly would have been bums on seats hold on to your hat entertainment had they got Briggs on instead.
bemused
JOHN BOY @ #1214 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 12:36 pm
so who’s put Roberta Williams up to annoy Bill..
Rex Douglas.
Obviously.
GOLD MATE.
SK
I imagine if they had Briggs on the Daily Terrograph, News Limited, Bolt, Alan Jones and that lot would be calling for his head. Briggs doesnt mince his words.
http://www.zdnet.com/google-amp/article/government-skips-geoblocking-and-fair-use-in-copyright-reform/
Oh Dear
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/28/trump-tweets-hoax-louise-mensch-claude-taylor?CMP=twt_a-media_b-gdnmedia
Yet some at the time treated Mensch as a reliable and credible source instead of the unhinged conspiracy nut she actually is.
Never mind, the tin foil hat gang can still click onto Rawstory for their fix of conspiracy and gossip.
Anyone else starting to get the feeling that the whole Russia conspiracy story is going to fizzle out to nothing?
Where is everyone?
Has North Korea attacked?
T-Lurker
About Snowy 2.0 I acknowledge what you’ve said about the engineering issues. However this is the rub..
its precisely because this was thought up of so long ago that I query whether the balance between power and capacity is going to make sense today. There are probably differences in motivation.
To repeat, my main thrust is that to the extent Snowy 2.0 is worth paying for, it has to fulfil the role of a backup power source for a few hours each day in heatwave conditions. And probably no more than a few weeks in the year. So the actual amount of inflow and storage isn’t as big an issue as might have been imagined when they designed this thing. I suspect they designed it to provide storage/return of energy in a more sustainable fashion (more times per year) than is actually needed.
Anyhow to that end I suspect it has to deliver more peak power.
Now my original question is just exactly how much incremental cost would deliver (say) an additional 3GW. And I suspect that the main constraint is the size of the tunnels. And thus the big question is, will the current study actually consider the option of increasing the power? (Yes, I’ve noted the other engineering concerns you’ve mentioned).
The takeaway from this citizenship carry-on will be a number of MPs and Senators will be out of a job … but none of them from Labor
How will the MSM spin that, I wonder?
I should also add that I hope a Labor person is referred to the HC, because it will shine a very clear light on what the ALP’s procedures are, and show up the deficiencies elsewhere.
In fact it might even give power to the arm of the HC to conclude, “the rules were clear. The Labor Party understood them, and did what was necessary to ensure its prospective MPs complied with the law. That every other party did not do due diligence isn’t a reflection on the constitution; it’s a reflection on THEM. Off with their heads!”
Okay, maybe not the last bit, but the point is everyone else has been deficient in sorting this stuff out. Labor has not, therefore the problem is with everyone else, not with Labor and not with letter of the law.
Labor is being blamed for the LNP failure on energy policy because of “bickering ” , so I’m sure somehow it’s Labor’s fault© for the citizenship fiasco too.
chinda63
I should also add that I hope a Labor person is referred to the HC, because it will shine a very clear light on what the ALP’s procedures are, and show up the deficiencies elsewhere.
This absolutely will not happen.
For a start it would be a waste of the HC’s time. Beyond that, the Parliament is empowered to make a referral but will not do this without some clear evidence that a member may be ineligible. MP’s derive their standing from the electoral process rather than from getting a tick from the HC. We can be sure that neither the HC nor the Parliament would wish to have the court involved in scrutinising MPs just for the hell of it.
**Anyone else starting to get the feeling that the whole Russia conspiracy story is going to fizzle out to nothing?**
It probably will quieten down as I would think Mueller will run a tight ship of an investigation. It will also be a long process. Any leaks about what they are investigating will likely come from the leakiest ship of all – the White House.
Did Labor make the hurricane, too?
cud chewer
I think the engineering pros and cons of Snowy 2.0 are less relevant than the overall strategy, given the ongoing disruption of the network, and the business model.
A centrally located pumped hydro facility services a very wide area, but it;s business model depends on arbitrage , i.e. buy when power is cheap and sell when it is expensive. With more and more players developing local storage options, and the huge build out in solar providing cheap power during the day, the old concepts of high, “peak”, and low demand may disappear.
chinda63 @ #1233 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 2:27 pm
Easy, it’s all the fault of the stupid Constitution, which was to be upheld at all costs when it was only those slack Greens involved.
Then it’s an easy step to the fault in the Constitution is because of something Labor did or didn’t do.
Hunted Fox @ #1729 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 2:23 pm
Nah, I stopped giving those particular sources credit shortly after “sealed indictment”.
But Trump’s done enough dodgy stuff (with Russia, and elsewhere) that it really doesn’t matter. Trump very loudly and very publicly called on Russia to hack Hillary. It’s on tape and all over Youtube. His son in law took a meeting with them after being promised dirt on Hillary. He released e-mails showing he was enthusiastic about getting this sort of info from them. And now there are more e-mails involving his personal lawyer talking about engineering an election victory for Trump with the help of Putin and other Russian officials. There’s an entire dossier about prostitutes and golden showers (and other, actually substantial, things) that’s as likely to be real as “sealed indictment” was likely to be fake.
None of that came from Mensch, all of it has been covered and reported by reputable outlets that actually check their facts before publishing, and some of it has been put out there by Trump and his cronies themselves.
A couple of sources that were generally regarded with skepticism turning out to be worthy of that skepticism doesn’t make all the other sources wrong. It’s neither here nor there, really.
Trog Sorrenson @ #1239 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 12:49 pm
I was thinking about what the LCoE for Snowy 2.0 would potentially be.
Snowy 2.0 is going to have to buy power from the grid, which I’ll assume will be done off peak, so they’ll be paying $0.15 per kWh, best case scenario and likely a lot more (at 80% round trip efficiency that’s $0.1875 per kWh for the stored energy). Then there is recovering the several billion dollar capital cost of Snowy 2.0, which is going to be difficult if the pumped hydro system is only used for peaking purposes, then we add running costs like maintenance and overhead.
The LCoE for this brain fart, even assuming 100% utilisation, is going to make it cost prohibitive and both the taxpayer & energy consumers are going to be on the hook for decades so that Brian Trumble can be PM for a few more weeks.
@Barney
Lunch? School? Etc
briefly @ #1236 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 2:43 pm
I don’t believe we can be sure of that at all. This is the Liberals we’re talking about. You are making the common mistake of assuming there are some depths they wouldn’t sink to. If Trumble gets to a position where he feels referring Labor MP’s on flimsy excuses offers more upside than downside (or even just a Hail Mary chance to survive) he will do it. It doesn’t even need to be a rational decision. Desperation just needs to be high enough to crack him. What he should do won’t get a look in if what he shouldn’t do might just save his arse.
When the HC kills the postfarce could well be a trigger. When the court comes out with a nice black letter reading that kills it Trumble will surely be advised (if he hasn’t already worked it out) that the sort of creative reading of the constitution required to get Barnyard off the hook isn’t looking likely panic will be close. It’s not hard to imagine that he’ll feel like he has nothing left to lose.
The Marriage equality problem would just have gone to critical and he’s probably facing the prospect of crossing the floor. And then having the loons go completely wild in response. He’ll look an even bigger goose and more incompetent for even proposing the idea of a postal vote. Plus he’ll be looking at losing his DPM and majority (possibly permanently), definitely losing a couple of other ministers, having the Nats pissed off because their deputy lost not only her seat, but was replaced by a Lib (and possibly the same issue in Qld). And we’ll be at what 20-21 Newspolls down? He wouldn’t have a lot to lose (least of all any legacy). Everything in Trumble’s past and make up screams that he’s exactly the sort of self centred scumbag to lash out and trash the joint if he finds himself in such a corner.
Believe the worst in Trumble and you’ll probably only end up slightly surprised that he ended up worse than you expected.
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
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5m
Aust offers Philippines training in IS fight
Truth that LNP working with the Mafia.
@ grimace – your calculations are off.
This is being used to commence a hostile takeover of the existing snowy. The more Turnbull spends, the more of the existing scheme he steals from NSW + Vic.
Lets imagine the existing snowy is owned 50% by the Feds and 50% by NSW. it is worth $10 B and generates $1B per year, with that annual income split in proportion to ownership.
If the feds do nothing for ten years, they earn $5B in revenue, and then sell their part of the snowy for $5B, giving them $10 B in cash.
Or, if the feds build snowy 2.0, which involves building a giant golden statue of Turnbull in the control room as the only change.
This costs $10B, and the feds now own 15/20 of the Snowy scheme, up from 5/10 before.
It runs for ten years, generating $7.5 B in revenue for the feds and $2.5 for NSW.
The feds then sell their part of it for $15 Billion
The total amount of cash the Feds have is $7.5 from revenue, $15 B from the sale, and negative $10 B that they spent on building the statue.
Their net position? $12.5 B – So building a useless statue generated $2.5 B in revenue for the Commonwealth.
Snowy 2.0 finances make sense, from a certain point of view.
grimace @ #1742 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 3:07 pm
There needs to be a philosophical shift, maybe, to recognize that surplus renewable energy doesn’t actually cost anything?
As in, if you’ve got a 100Mw solar farm, and demand is only at 80Mw, then it’s not like the solar farm operator saves any money or otherwise benefits by switching off 20Mw of panels. The panels are there and they’re going to generate electricity as long as the sun is shining on them. The solar operator loses nothing by gifting their unused output to Snowy (or a Tesla battery farm, or whatever), and gains even if they sell the surplus at $0.01 per kWh.
Though I’d treat it more like a bank; generators “deposit” energy into Snowy (or batteries, or whatever other storage solutions are available) and no money changes hands when this happens. They’ve just moved their energy, and haven’t used or sold it yet. Then when the storage is tapped the generated energy is sold to consumers at the standard retail rate, and the generator and the storage operator split the proceeds 50/50 or along whatever lines are fair.
I’d agree 100% that it makes zero economic sense to burn extra coal, gas, or any other nonrenewable energy source for the purposes of storing energy. There’s no such thing as a surplus of nonrenewable energy. But I think renewables are a completely different ball-game, and need different and better rules.
Rats…
Whlie Turnbull would no doubt like to tar Labor with the 44(i) brush, he needs some evidence. He has none. The HC will not agree to hear a reference that is unsupported with facts.
Neither the Senate nor the House will refer their own members to the HC without a good reason…..and the HC surely will not allow itself to be used as a political weapon.
Notably….no Libs have been pinged. G, ON, Nat…yes.,but neither Lib nor Labor….
I suspect both the majors will be feelong quite pleased with themselves and are hoping the HC takes a tough line…
New construction for Qantas big birds:
Brisbane Airport ✈️ @BrisbaneAirport
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50m
Dreams come true for Brisbane Airport
http://newsroom.bne.com.au/dreams-come-true-for-brisbane-airport/
New thread.