BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor

A solid bump to Labor on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate after particularly dire result for the government from Newspoll and ReachTEL.

A big week of polling, with the weekly Essential, fortnightly Newspoll and YouGov and monthly ReachTEL landing all at once, and their combined effect is to shake the BludgerTrack aggregate out of its lethargy with a solid move to Labor. The two contributors to this were Newspoll, whose 53-47 to 54-46 movement this fortnight is almost precisely replicated by BludgerTrack, but also by ReachTEL, whose primary vote numbers were a lot worse for the Coalition than the 52-48 two-party headline suggested. All of which causes Labor to gain four on the seat projection, including one apiece in each of the four largest states. The Coalition has taken a particularly heavy hit on the primary vote, but it’s One Nation rather than Labor that has yielded the advantage. A new set of leadership numbers from Newspoll sends both leaders downwards on the net satisfaction trend, with Bill Shorten gaining fractionally on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,253 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor”

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  1. Good Morning Bludgers : )

    54.0 – 46.0 to Labor.

    Noice! : )

    Now, if it can just last until the day of the next election please!

  2. Republican Senator Reminds Out Of It Trump To Pay Attention To The Giant Hurricane Hitting Texas

    Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley (Iowa) felt the need to remind the President Of The United States to pay attention to the hurricane that is about to hit the state of Texas.

    This is how far the presidency has fallen. Trump is so out of touch with reality that he needs to be reminded of a looming serious natural disaster that is likely going to cause massive damage and has the potential to be deadly. Grassley’s comparison to Bush and Katrina is a good lesson for all presidents, because after the storm, Bush administration officials admitted that they did not properly prepare for the consequences of the Hurricane.

  3. ‘Shameful behavior’: Internet crushes Trump for nursing petty grudges while Hurricane Harvey slams Texas

    President Donald Trump on Friday sent out tweets attacking both the news media and a Republican senator — but nothing aimed at helping people on Gulf Coast prepare for Hurricane Harvey, which meteorologists warn could be a very dangerous storm for the region.

  4. ‘People have to watch him’: CIA agents fear director Pompeo will squash damaging Trump intel

    President Donald Trump’s relationship with his own intelligence agencies has been strained from the start, and a new report claims that several CIA agents are particularly wary of their own director.

    Unnamed officials tell the Washington Post that there is significant tension within the agency over CIA Director Mike Pompeo’s willingness to go all-out in defending Trump while also undermining the role that Russian intelligence actions played in getting him elected.

  5. ‘No other place to go’: Former allies say Bannon’s return to Breitbart is anything but triumphant

    “Bannon had no other place to go except for Breitbart,” said conservative pundit and former Breitbart News editor Ben Shapiro, who left the website in 2016 over its fawning tone over then-nominee Donald Trump. Shapiro has emerged as a critic of Breitbart News and its decision to become Trump’s Pravda.

    Bannon, Shapiro said, “is not going to be the head of a think tank. He’s not going to be a personality or a talk radio host. He’s not qualified for any of those things.”

  6. Paul Manafort loses second legal team in a month as attorney shakeups continue

    Though special prosecutor Robert Mueller’s Russia probe has kept out of the news in recent weeks, it appears to have claimed another victim.

    According to AP’s Eric Tucker, former Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort’s lawyer, Kevin Downing, has left the law firm he worked for to continue representing Manafort during the probe.

  7. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    James Massola says that Shorten plans to keep his foot on the government’s throat as the Coalition is mired in chaos.
    Phil Coorey tells us that Federal Labor is plotting to try and force a royal commission into the banks and reverse cuts to penalty rates should Barnaby Joyce be disqualified by the High Court and made to recontest his seat in a by-election. Google.
    Nick O’Malley says that Shorten is enjoying the government’s war with itself on two fronts. And he concludes the article with “The government’s charge sheet against Shorten now includes the allegations that he is a soft unionist who failed his members, a Soviet fifth columnist, a British citizen and a New Zealand secret agent. None of it is consistent, little of it makes sense and none of it is sticking. ”
    Paul Bongiorno says that a Labor staffer who was part of the wild ride that was the Gillard minority government says there’s more than a whiff of deja vu about what’s happening to the Turnbull operation right now.
    In this op-ed piece Mark Dreyfus says that Section 44 will remain – it’s the government that will go up in smoke.
    Paul Kelly writes that the government is doomed unless it can reshape the contest of ideas now owned by Labor. Google.
    Paula Matthewson opines that it’s only the ineptitude of Turnbull’s opponents that is keeping him alive.
    Trump says “I’m ready” as a major hurricane descends on Texas. The stakes could be exceedingly high. Few events test the effectiveness of an administration or bear as many political risks like a major natural disaster.
    British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson says Donald Trump got his response to Charlottesville “totally wrong” and has all but confirmed the US President’s state visit to Britain will no longer go ahead this year.
    Just about every Monday starts with a promiscuous number of “last week was the worst in Trump’s presidency” comments and posts, only to be overrun by even more bizarre, ominous and frightening events, courtesy of the White House occupant. Google.

  8. Section 2 . . .

    Jonathan Freedland laments the fact that Trump has revived the Nazi threat.
    The ACCC’s green light for the proposed Murdoch-Gordon takeover of Network Ten is premature, meddlesome and dithering. Worst of all, it is oblivious to the potential ramifications. Whatever Lachlan Murdoch does with Ten it won’t be pretty!
    A veteran Volkswagen engineer was sentenced to 40 months in prison for his role in helping the German carmaker cheat US emissions tests, the first person prosecuted in one of the biggest scandals in the automotive industry’s history.
    Amazon has just fired an opening salvo in the grocery wars.
    Mike Seccombe writes that while most religious leaders accept climate change, the Christian right in Australia and the US make scepticism a tenet of their politics.
    Unions have called on the government to sack Australia Post chairman John Stanhope after it emerged former chief executive Ahmed Fahour received a $10.8 million pay packet in his final year. Quite obscene really.
    Turnbull has taken his predecessor, Tony Abbott, to task for being too drunk to vote on an economic stimulus package legislated during the global financial crisis.
    A radicalised white supremacist who was stockpiling homemade guns and expressed a desire to carry out a mass shooting at a NSW shopping centre could have been “the next Martin Bryant”, a judge has said. No burqa was found in the search.
    Donald Trump’s response to the events in Charlottesville has emboldened white supremacists everywhere.

  9. Section 3 . . .

    Jack Waterford begins with “Mathias Cormann may be the best verbal, if not the best oral, advocate the Turnbull government has got. But his argument to the Sydney Institute this week that Bill Shorten was a mad radical bent on restoring socialism was far from convincing, is less than consistent with other Turnbull government anti-Shorten messages, and seems unlikely to halt the drift against the Turnbull government.”
    Crispin Hull writes about a not very enjoyable week here and in the US.
    Time for another whinge from Gerard Henderson about the ABC. Google.
    A Sydney naturopath who instructed a breastfeeding mother to stick to a “raw food” diet to cure her son’s eczema has admitted that her advice endangered the baby’s life. When are we going to rid ourselves of these charlatans?
    Greg Sheridan says the end of the world is coming as Christianity’s wane continues. Google.
    Papua New Guinea has reportedly told the Australian government it will not be allowed to walk away from the asylum-seekers currently held in the Manus Island Detention Centre in October. No doubt Potatohead will handle this with sensitivity.
    As the decision about increased involvement in Afghanistan looms our defence chief says Australia is pulling its weight with our efforts to fight terrorism.
    A convicted fraudster and real estate agent the state government has previously warned members of the public “not [to] deal with” will appear alongside the current Mayor of Strathfield on a ticket for next month’s local government elections. He seems eminently qualified given what has been happening in NSW local government of late.
    A last-minute surge has seen a record number of Australians enrolled to vote ahead of the upcoming postal survey on same-sex marriage. And it’s put the wind up the Coalition. Wouldn’t it be ironic id the High Court knocked the survey out and the government was left with this enrolment surge as a reminder!
    Peter Hartcher has written a piece on the rise of “identity politics”.

  10. Section 4 . . .

    Amy Remeikis on Richard Di Natale’s outburst at “hate preacher” Pauline Hanson.–greens-20170825-gy44xt.html
    Ross Gittins has a good look at the apprenticeship situation.
    “Sow and ye shall reap” comes to mind.
    A federal police anti-bribery taskforce is examining if ASX-listed firm Iluka Resources has breached Australian corruption laws after acquiring a London firm accused of bribing high-ranking Sierra Leone officials to win mining licences.
    Adele Ferguson tells us about the pressure building to get on top of the rules and regulations pertaining to the retirement industry.
    Medibank Private says the health system is at risk if doctors won’t agree to disclose how much they charge for procedures. Fair enough.
    Gordon Ramsay explains that not all Christians are against marriage equality.
    The boss of the Department of Infrastructure has delivered a blunt assessment of some of Canberra’s most powerful public servants and political staffers, calling out central agencies as dollar-driven policy killers. Ouch!
    Dave Donovan writes and open letter to Eric Abetz about his problems with GetUp.!,10649
    Tony Wright gives us a history lesson about the squattocracy.

  11. Section 5 . . .

    The SMH editorial is not at all sympathetic with some of the MPs’ stories on their citizenship.
    Richard Dennis talks about how Australian businesses have a high tolerance to failure and reward executives for poor performance.
    The most disconcerting aspect of George Christensen’s anti-halal campaign is that even he doesn’t believe it funds terrorism.,10648
    What a disgusting example of a man is Abbott!
    Could Barnaby Joyce snatch the popular-voted New Zealander of the Year award?
    Our country won’t change for the worse because of a few little words in the Marriage Act, writes Roisin Bevan.,10651

  12. Section 6 . . . Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe and a rather unpalatable meal – and drink – for Turnbull.

    Alan Moir and sobriety in politics.

    Mark David and his new depiction of Abbott.

    A great belt on the hypocrisy of the government from David Pope.

    Broelman gives us the Barnaby tiki.

    Paul Zanetti with an unfortunate truth for Hilary Clinton.

    Glen Le Lievre with a reminder about interventions in Afghanistan.

    And he gives us Barnaby Joyce, master of disguise!

    Sean Leahy and Australian monuments we’d like to see.

    More from Leahy as he ventures into the High Court.

    Ron Tandberg and the reasoning for the postal survey.
    Mark Knight and Ahmed Fahour’s payday.

  13. “Identity politics” is the new “politically correct”: a term the privileged throw the oppressed in order to stop them from complaining about their treatment.

  14. Thanks BK
    Getting pissed, passing out, and missing the vote, is about the most constructive thing Abbott has done for the nation.

  15. Fake news in the Daily TurdBurgler

    Exhibit A

    READERS are switching off in droves from left-leaning news websites such as the ABC and Fairfax and turning instead to trusted mainstream news outlets such as

    Official audience figures show The Daily Telegraph is the No.1 subscriber content news site in Australia, growing 4.6 per cent over the past month to 2.3 million unique readers while the Tele’s smartphone readers jumped 9.8 per cent over the past year.

    The cracking figures for are even more impressive, with up to 50 per cent of content on the site each day available only for paid subscribers, while rival sites were open access.

    But the Nielsen data reveals that despite being free the ABC’s online audience crashed over the past 12 month by 28.5 per cent and the trend was matched by other left-leaning news sites.

    The Sydney Morning Herald was down 19.7 per cent and its sister site The Age down 26.6 per cent.

    The Guardian also fell by 3.97 per cent over the year to July, and Australians also turned off from the BBC sites, The New York Times and Huffington Post.

    The biggest collapse in unique audience was experienced by Buzzfeed, which lost 585,000 readers, 26.6 per cent, over the year, and Crikey, which lost 31.7 per cent of its audience.

    As many people read the satirical Betoota Advocate as read the Crikey website

    Exhibit B

    In the latest Nielsen digital news rankings, climbed 11%, with its unique audience well ahead of competitors, at 5.905m. maintained its place in fourth, despite gaining 12% in the latest Nielsen rankings, with its unique audience reaching 4.197m.

    Daily Mail Australia retained its position in fifth place, with an audience of 3.069m.

    The Guardian, Yahoo 7 News, and The Daily Telegraph all saw growth, reporting unique audiences of 2.823m (4%), 2.674m (4%) and 2.286m (5%) respectively.

    BBC plateaued with a unique audience of 2.340m, and Herald Sun fell 2% to 2.254m.

  16. The bait and switch used by the TurdBurgler is to compare their monthly figures with the annual figures of their ‘left leaning competitors’.

    Fake news or simply lying to their simpleton readers? One is reminded of The Mooch’s observation of Steve Bannon’s contortionist antics.

  17. Coorey: The Govt has ‘strategies’. Labor ‘plots’ –


  18. Harvey is yuuge. Believe me. YUUUUGE. Biggest and best.

    I sent it to Texas because Texas is half full of people who are on the wrong side of my GREAT WALL OF AMERICA. The crowds at Harvey were yuuuuge. They love me. For who I am.

    Let me just tell you that I am the Muhammad Ali of all US Presidents.

    Believe me.

  19. Morning all and thanks BK. I just got around to reading this excellent article on the MP eligibility fiasco by Bernard Keane in Crikey. He makes the very good point that the 6 question, single page forms and citizenship checks required of MPs to nominate for election are much simpler than the 20 page 94 question form the average citizen must lodge to claim the pension.

    Is this relevant to the HC case? Presumably the government expects the average person to be capable of filling out such a form accurately. By this test it seems reasonable that a candidate be capable of filling out the much simpler nomination form correctly.

    The HC is going to have to be quite inventive to get Barnaby and co off the hook. I hope they are not. If they do so, the HC itself will be damaged too. The government is already damaged.

  20. Junk science, courtesy of the IPA. And Pawmistry: How to Read Your Cat’s Paws?

    The IPA, which does not have to reveal its funders, has long pushed climate science denial, while promoting fossil fuels and denigrating renewable energy. It’s what they do.

    According to the journal manuscript, Marohasy and Abbot list their affiliations as the IPA and the Climate Modelling Laboratory.

    The Climate Modelling Laboratory is a trading name linked to Marohasy’s personal business number.

    Abbot also adds James Cook University (JCU) to his list of affiliations.

    But a JCU spokesperson told me: “John Abbot is no longer affiliated with James Cook University. He was an adjunct senior research fellow between October 2015 and September 2016.”

    As I’ve written on Planet Oz before, Marohasy has repeatedly claimed that Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology is deliberately conspiring to tamper with its temperature records with the express intention to make global warming look worse than it is.

    Marohasy was also the editor of the IPA’s most recent climate book – a collection of essays from a line-up of climate science deniers and contrarians.

    The IPA said the book had contributions from “some of the world’s leading experts”. Among these “leading experts” is a New Zealander who has written several New Age-style books on cats (including Pawmistry: How to Read Your Cats Paws) while being the “king of rubber-band magic”.

  21. Rex has a friend at Murdoch’s Oz:

    Shorten only slim chance to win
    If Labor had thrust Anthony Albanese into the big chair, it would be riding high right now.

  22. John Black, tame political scientist. I’m sure the Alt Right media, run by the Murdochs, have cultivated them, just like they have cultivated Climate Scientists to their cause(who are actually geologists and cat’s paw readers!).

  23. zoomster – I shared a table in a crowded up-market pizza restaurant with Doug Cameron a few years ago.

    He can be very entertaining.

  24. CTar:

    Reed Timmer is a meteorologist and well known storm chaser. He spends his life chasing and reporting on storms across the US.

    iCyclone is another storm chaser following Harvey. I’m sure Josh will post footage – he chases all over the world though and doesn’t mind putting himself in harm’s way to do so.

  25. Trump Signs Memo Giving Military The Authority To Kick Out Transgender People

    It is being reported that before Trump left the White House on Friday, he signed a memo that gave the Department of Defense, and Homeland Security the formal authority to kick transgender persons out of the military.

    The outrages continue to pile up, and it is only a matter of time until the two-thirds of the country that do not support Trump come together to oust him from office. Donald Trump and his throwback policies to a bygone bigoted era are living on borrowed time because Trump’s outnumbered and the American people will fight back.

  26. As Harvey Approaches Texas, Pathetic Trump Only Says Good Luck As He Flees The White House

    Trump offered no reassurance that his administration is prepared to handle the damage caused by Hurricane Harvey. His only message to the people of Texas was, “Good Luck” as he did his usual Friday bolt from the White House.

    Trump was asked if he had a message for the people of Texas. He said, “Good luck to everybody. They’re going to be safe. Good luck to everybody. Good luck.”

    Obama demonstrated how a president is supposed to lead, while Trump is going to get people killed.

  27. PhoenixRed:

    NY Times has a different take:

    President Trump signed a long-awaited directive on Friday that precludes transgender individuals from joining the military but gives Defense Secretary Jim Mattis wide discretion in determining whether transgender personnel who are already in the armed forces can continue to serve.

    A senior White House official told reporters that Mr. Mattis’s decisions will be based on several criteria, including military effectiveness and budgetary concerns. The official also said that the military would no longer pay for sex reassignment surgeries unless withholding such funds would harm the health of someone already transitioning.

  28. I ask this question honestly. Is there a chance that this could be Trump’s Katrina?

    Bush may not have been the best president, but he had a team around that should have been capable but failed once the devastation in New Orleans became clear. Trump strikes me as incapable leading a team that is at loggerheads with out each and subject to constant disruption.

  29. Hillary Clinton’s Emails May Bring Down Trump As Focus Turns To Trump/Russia Hack Collusion

    Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation is looking at Mike Flynn’s role in trying to get Hillary Clinton’s emails from the Russians for the Trump campaign.

    It is pretty easy to see why Trump is doing everything that he can to shut this investigation down. Special Counsel Mueller and his team are leaving no stone unturned. Anyone who has followed the Russia investigation understands that it is complex. It has dozens of moving parts and figures, and that is without including the examination of potential Trump financial crimes. It is going to take a long time for this investigation to be completed,

  30. Dog Poo wins? (joke)

    The Associated Press‏Verified account

    BREAKING: Right-wing group cancels Saturday rally in San Francisco that had sparked concerns about violence.

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