A big week of polling, with the weekly Essential, fortnightly Newspoll and YouGov and monthly ReachTEL landing all at once, and their combined effect is to shake the BludgerTrack aggregate out of its lethargy with a solid move to Labor. The two contributors to this were Newspoll, whose 53-47 to 54-46 movement this fortnight is almost precisely replicated by BludgerTrack, but also by ReachTEL, whose primary vote numbers were a lot worse for the Coalition than the 52-48 two-party headline suggested. All of which causes Labor to gain four on the seat projection, including one apiece in each of the four largest states. The Coalition has taken a particularly heavy hit on the primary vote, but it’s One Nation rather than Labor that has yielded the advantage. A new set of leadership numbers from Newspoll sends both leaders downwards on the net satisfaction trend, with Bill Shorten gaining fractionally on preferred prime minister.
victoria
John Schindler
John Schindler @20committee
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The Trump-Sater connection — and who Felix works for — has been known for YEARS. It took the MSM YEARS to care about it. A true scandal.
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Donald doesn’t even know him ……
Sater has been profiled in the Washington Post, on ABC News and in several other outlets. But few have taken much note of him, presumably because Trump has said, under oath, that he barely knew him. “If he were sitting in the room right now, I really wouldn’t know what he looked like,” he said in a deposition in November 2013. Asked how many times he had ever conversed with Sater, he said, “Not many.” And asked about a previous BBC interview, in which he was questioned about Sater’s mafia connections, Trump said he didn’t recall the interview.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardbehar/2016/10/03/donald-trump-and-the-felon-inside-his-business-dealings-with-a-mob-connected-hustler/#5f50bb762282
Whilst claiming that Gallagher was born in Equador.
Nothing conservative about em. Just proto fascists at various stages of development. Reichstuber-SS Dutton is just further along than most.
It would be folly to assume Trumble wouldn’t go all the way either. When you have the desperate need to be the big man but none of the qualities required it is too seductive to resist.
PhoenixRed
And of course Trump never lies!!
Apparently the Government reckons the unemployed are more highly evolved beings that require little to no sleep and only need to eat once a week. Or at least that they eat their children when they get sufficiently hungry.
Besides, if those bums really can’t afford the rent on their slumlord-owned shoebox there’s always the option of committing theft and going to prison. A bed and three square meals a day? Looxury!
Who said the Liberals weren’t generous? Those bleeding heart, turmeric latte-drinking, avocado-smashing social justice warriors obvs. Get a job you hippie hipster bums!
The ABC should rightly update their headline “Fiasco hits Labor” but of course they won’t because it is click bait.
citizen @ #1156 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 9:40 am
Yeah, but I don’t know if it was a ‘fiasco’ when it hit the coalition.
re Katy Gallagher, so she is legit and it’s a non/fake story distraction?
just heard on car radio and story sounded legit.. hence straight here for clarification.
Adrian – Guthrie needs to outsource to an outside talent agency to hire some actors. The current crop of personalities aren’t particularly convincing in their roles of “journalist”.
Guess.
“Geopolitics are rattling markets again after North Korea fired missiles over Japan, as investors flock to the save havens of gold, bonds and the Japanese yen.”
People are not very smart.
VE
Reporters are not very smart.
ROFLMAO
Something to watch.
I haven’t seen any reports on this but,
the tropical depression that was Harvey appears to have moved back over water which, depending on its track could result on it intensifying once again.
One to watch.
victoria @ #1153 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 9:39 am
Trump’s most frequently used expression is “Believe me”. Every time he uses the expression I assume he is either lying or at least has no belief in the truth of what he is saying.
Regarding the ABC, the headline could be better and the report could be a bit better, but its not exactly an entirely shit story. I agree Gallagher is probably in the clear and come tomorrow it will be forgotten. *This is based on their online site and Ive not heard any other ABC broadcast etc.
When Anne Sudmalis’ incoming passenger card came up we were jumping up and down about her being a dual national (myself included).
The full Essential poll now up. Still 53-47. In Primaries, ALP down 1, Greens up 1.
http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Essential-Report_290817.pdf
Also see Guardian article
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/29/most-australians-want-an-audit-of-mps-to-identify-dual-citizens-guardian-essential-poll
Windhover
victoria @ #1153 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 9:39 am
“And of course Trump never lies!!”
Trump’s most frequently used expression is “Believe me”. Every time he uses the expression I assume he is either lying or at least has no belief in the truth of what he is saying.
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President Trump’s list of false and misleading claims tops 1,000
We have been tracking President Trump’s false or misleading claims for more than seven months. Somewhere around Aug. 4 or Aug. 5, he broke 1,000 claims, and the tally now stands at 1,057. (Our full interactive graphic can be found here.)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/08/22/president-trumps-list-of-false-and-misleading-claims-tops-1000/?utm_term=.1ae78c992a33
I can’t access story in Australian through usual fence hop. Anyone any more details on this?
If the LNP are scraping the “third degree” consanguinity barrel, Labor are home and hosed.
Lizzie.
They superimposed that “hang the faggots” poster from Melbourne over a bus stop add. The bus stop photo came from stock photos (getty images)
As if on cue :
Trump Under Investigation For False Statements And Obstruction Of Justice In Russia Cover-Up
Investigators want to know what Donald Trump knew about his son’s Trump Tower meeting with Russia and if he tried to cover-up its real purpose.
Mueller Team Asking If Trump Tried to Hide Purpose of Trump Tower Meeting
WASHINGTON — Federal investigators working for Special Counsel Robert Mueller are keenly focused on President Donald Trump’s role in crafting a response to a published article about a meeting between Russians and his son Donald Jr., three sources familiar with the matter told NBC News.
The sources told NBC News that prosecutors want to know what Trump knew about the meeting and whether he sought to conceal its purpose.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/mueller-team-asking-if-trump-tried-hide-purpose-trump-tower-n796746
I did Lizzie lol..
It was a generic msm radio station my kid whacks on each morning on the way to work [dad taxi] I should of read, but my disbelief had me booting comp and typing before the kettle had boiled.
So another huge own goal assist by the Telecrap as Bill can keep the story of Barnyard and co in the news-cycle the rest of the week.
IDIOTS.
Cheers
The Katy non-story a nice illustration of how useless our media is and the role they played in giving us this clusterfuck of a government.
The Murdoch bullshit artists run a fake story aimed at Labor that anyone with two brain cells and 20 seconds on google can show is nonsense.
Why does Murdoch bother? It’s not like that many people really read his rags. Most of those that do start at the back page and rarely get to the front.
The genius of it is of course that most of the rest of our media players are too stupid or lazy to bother to do their own work. Most commercial radio station’s news consists of some junior reading the local Murdoch rag and picking out a few bits to rehash on the half hour. TV morning shows pick up and run with the story because it’s in the paper, therefore it’s news.
And the ABC is now so neutered that it’s far easier to do exactly the same thing. Doubly so if the story is anti-ALP because they don’t get any flack from the ‘they’re a nest of lefties’ RWNJ loons for those stories. Then the Murdochracy can refer to all of these news reports on the bullshit they have created as being news itself. The bootstrap is complete, and the lies have been laundered.
Actual journalism costs money. But actual journalism doesn’t really generate income. So Murdoch provides a news creation service that the rest of the media are happy to piggy back on to for free. No investment in time, money, or effort required. Thanks Rupert.
When Anne Sudmalis’ incoming passenger card came up we were jumping up and down about her being a dual national (myself included).
_______________________________________
I wasn’t. It was irrelevant and it was patently obvious she didn’t even fill it out. She was clearly in the same boat as Susan Nash unless she renounced UK citizenship before nomination for Parliament and the existence of a passenger card for a 10 year old girl was a rancid red herring.
But, I agree, the useless media did get all excited over this, including my beloved Grauniad. By far and away, the only really good bit of journalism I have seen is Gartrell of the Fairfax doing his own homework (rather than publish some lazy speculation), putting it to Barnaby and then putting a deadline on Barnaby’s stalling tactics, thereby forcing his hand.
Subsequently, what passes as journalism across the whole MSM has been just lazy click-bait headlining by desk-bound sub-editors.
JimmyDoyle @ #1163 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 9:56 am
Never ever forget that 50% of the population have below average (median) intelligence.
(or that there’s a 1 in 2 chance that you’re one of them 😉 )
Thanks, Ides.
Forgive my insatiable curiosity. 🙂
(or that there’s a 1 in 2 chance that you’re one of them)
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Smiley noted (and deleted so I don’t get caught by poor site programming), but that statement assumed a perfectly even distribution throughout our society and among bludgers on this website. I suspect that even those bludgers whom I find as almost always wrong (there are a couple) are about the societal median.
We have mansplain, so why can’t we have whitesplain.
Some highlights from last night’s Q&A.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/29/qa-dan-sultan-says-australia-day-is-racist-as-he-calls-for-date-to-be-changed
booleanbach @ #1137 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 9:06 am
Me too. If Sales was hard on Turnbull last night, it can only be because Mal the Magnificent is rapidly approaching the last days of his tenure, and this has finally become obvious even to the sycophants at the ABC.
You’ll know the end has actually arrived when Annabel Crabb finally turns up her nose.
TPOF
Sorry a lot of us were jumping up and down. Not everyone.
Me too. If Sales was hard on Turnbull last night, it can only be because Mal the Magnificent is rapidly approaching the last days of his tenure, and this has finally become obvious even to the sycophants at the ABC.
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It seemed to me that Sales was not so hard on Turncoat as he was desperate not to actually answer questions and, instead, use the interview opportunity to waffle through his talking points relentlessly. To a large extent, she was an onlooker as Turncoat put both his extreme narcissism and his terror of the relentless march of negative Newspoll front and centre.
A personal beef from an acknowledged pedant. This misuse of ‘maketh’ never fails to annoy.
Let this be a lesson for people who posted stuff from Louise & Claude. There is more than enough real news & scandal around Trump. They were always just muddying the waters.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/28/trump-tweets-hoax-louise-mensch-claude-taylor
Lurid Trump allegations made by Louise Mensch and co-writer came from hoaxer
Ratsak – I wasn’t disagreeing with the comment, if anything I thought VE was understating considerably!
New Republic correctly called them conspiracy theorists in May
https://newrepublic.com/minutes/142650/stop-promoting-liberal-conspiracy-theories-twitter
Stop promoting liberal conspiracy theories on Twitter
Although their editor did note that this was a problem confined to some online people, not the broader Democrats or actual liberal media.
https://newrepublic.com/article/142828/no-liberals-not-falling-conspiracy-theories-just-like-conservatives
No, Liberals Are Not Falling for Conspiracy Theories Just Like Conservatives Do
Turnbull appeared anxious and irritable on 7.30….dry mouth, edgy, defensive…..spent a lot of time talking about Labor and Shorten….must have been told to get sharper, less rambling, more aggro…none of which matches his customary pompous verbosity….Leigh Sales was OK i thought
briefly
Leigh’s first question wtte “what would you regard as your signature achievement?” obviously caught him unprepared. He had come with a list and found it hard to change direction. Yes, very irritable and snarky towards the ABC.
Pretty clear that William was right saying the Essential sample that jumped Labor up a couple of weeks ago was more likely rogue(ish) than not (as was the one that jumped the Libs up a few weeks before that).
Last Newspoll was possibly a bit over-cooked too.
Reasonable chance that the slight uptick in Bludgertrack will smooth back out. 53.x/46.x is where we are and have been locked into since January. Nothing changes it. Not more Trumble fuck ups, not his (MSM hailed if not in reality) triumphs. Not Kill Bill. Just baked in loss of Coalition PV.
It has to be acknowledged that Labor hasn’t really capitalised on this at this stage. I don’t doubt the 2PP would come out pretty much as Bilbo is showing if an election was this Saturday, but it is an open question if on the day these lost Coalition votes will remain with PHON and Others (and enough prefs go Labor’s way to win clearly), or if they will return to the majors. Of course I have long contended that this government is just so completely useless that at some point a good chunk of voters will realise that Labor is the only place they can go for stable competent government.
But the Essential result showing this Trumble government is rated higher than the Gillard government is cause for pause. I mean seriously? The Gillard term had more issues than you could point a stick at obviously, but it was also quite obviously a functioning serious attempt at government. That’s not an accusation you could level at this omnishambles.
I think Labor and Shorten are doing pretty much everything right, but the hangover from the Gillard years still weighs heavily. There is still a cohort out there that jumped on the Kevin 07 bandwagon but are still too unsure to throw their lot in with Labor despite having abandoned the mirage of the Coalition.
Taking Rex’s advice and going for the messiah is exactly the wrong thing to do I reckon. Stability is Labor’s biggest asset. But it’s clear that Labor needs to be patient and continue to studiously work towards government. The big solidification of Labor’s PV (to 40+) that I predict will come simply through the stark contrast in competence may not happen in opposition. It may require a bit of time in actual government for enough of the waverers to accept they really are not the riven mob they became under Gillard. But damn Trumble really does work hard at accelerating the process. Surely he can’t be too many fuck ups away from forcing the big shift.
JimmyDoyle @ #1159 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 9:51 am
Apparently Sales did a pretty good impersonation last night, from most accounts here.
Meanwhile, Annabel continues her crusade to convince us that politicians are just normal people tonight. I am sure that she will find Tones’ drunken revelations mooooost amusing.
TPOF @ #1178 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 10:21 am
Of course that could just be confirmation bias in operation 😉
JimmyDoyle @ #1185 Tuesday, August 29th, 2017 – 10:36 am
Oh I agree. The median intelligence seems ridiculously low to me 😉
Lizzie, as someone who is also a pedant, I am struggling with the idea that some bludgers seem to have that Ecuador is somehow spelt “Equador”.
Trivia: Republic of Ecuador (Spanish: República del Ecuador, which literally translates as “Republic of the Equator”).
JimmyDoyle
I’m hopeless at geography so had to look it up. See Steve777 below.
Donald Trump meets with President of Finland, doesn’t appear to know his name
http://www.palmerreport.com/politics/trump-finland-president-name/4563/
The Sales interview of MT was not one of her tummy ticklers and she did go some way to preventing MT from just babbling on about his talking points regardless of the question asked.
OTOH her very first question “What do you consider to be your signature policy achievement?” was just a silly gotcha. If you want to have an informative interview really questioning (lack of) policy positions in respect of the CET or the potential Constitutional crisis should MT fall under the wheels of a bus and we have Barnaby posturing as PM when not eligible (with all the concerns for the legality of any decisions made) then starting with a gotcha is hardly conducive.
And Sales did ask Qs on the CET and the Constitutional concerns but MT rebuffed the enquiry in a way consistent with the tone set by the opening gotcha.
Briefly – I don’t think Malcolm plans to get snarky. Under pressure, he IS snarky. Can’t help himself. When things are going well, he’s smug; when not, he’s snarky. He looks like he’s under a LOT of pressure right now.
I should have bolded Trump’s bragging about ratings.
I don’t think there is anything new in the likes of ABC and the BBC for that matter, quoting what the tabloids are showing as headline news. The weakness the ABC shows, and other parts of the media, is accepting that the items actually count as “news” and secondly there is any veracity in what is being reported. The Labor Senator item was about item 3 on local ABC radio in Sandgropia.
Meanwhile an interesting snippet from somebody in the West letters worked out the income the recently moved-on Oz Post chief, would pay for the unemployment benefits for one individual for over 800 years. Now, I don’t know if the arithmetic is correct, but sure as heck some in Oz are still earning more money in a year than some see in a lifetime. What the hell do you do with $10 million a year?
Ratsak @ 10.49…
The default positions in the electorate have evolved into a 10/35/35/10 split (G/Labor/Liberal/ON). This sits alongside the reflexive hostility that voters have towards politicians and parties….and the belief that “nuffink can be done”….
The centre of gravity favours Labor because of trends in tbe economy which eat away at support incumbents.
If ON-leaning support becomes engrained then the Libs will be in a semi-structural minority. We can see the Libs trying to erode that support all the time. Meanwhile Labor try not to talk about ON but to find themes that will appeal to the ON-tempted.
The left is highly unified these days, whereas the right is splitting all over the place….this is the upside of Murdochocracy for Labor. It is busting Liberalism from within.