BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor

A solid bump to Labor on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate after particularly dire result for the government from Newspoll and ReachTEL.

A big week of polling, with the weekly Essential, fortnightly Newspoll and YouGov and monthly ReachTEL landing all at once, and their combined effect is to shake the BludgerTrack aggregate out of its lethargy with a solid move to Labor. The two contributors to this were Newspoll, whose 53-47 to 54-46 movement this fortnight is almost precisely replicated by BludgerTrack, but also by ReachTEL, whose primary vote numbers were a lot worse for the Coalition than the 52-48 two-party headline suggested. All of which causes Labor to gain four on the seat projection, including one apiece in each of the four largest states. The Coalition has taken a particularly heavy hit on the primary vote, but it’s One Nation rather than Labor that has yielded the advantage. A new set of leadership numbers from Newspoll sends both leaders downwards on the net satisfaction trend, with Bill Shorten gaining fractionally on preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,253 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 17 of 26
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  1. lizzie @ #793 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 12:22 pm

    PM Turnbull begins new Snowy Hydro video “this is a very romantic story”

    But look at his defensive posture!

    Did he do the bit about how hard he did it as a little ‘un having to live in a flat in Vaucluse and make do with an inheritance of only a couple of mil in his 20s and marrying into a family worth only in the 10s of millions?

  2. Senator Murray Watt‏Verified account @MurrayWatt · Aug 25

    I’ve asked PM to sack Barry O’Sullivan from Senate Committee that oversees Fed contracts given to his family business.

    Will Truffles have the guts to do anything?

  3. Hola Bludgers! From the freezing cold and windy Central Coast pre poll.

    I’d just like to say that picture of Turnbull makes him look like a man trying to look cool and hip down the Seniors Centre.

  4. This is the depth of CPG analysis. Shorten’s hi-vis jacket.

    Samantha Maiden‏Verified account @samanthamaiden · 4m4 minutes ago

    Some discussion in office this appears to be a revised Beaconsfield bomber featuring high vis but design flaw around monogram

  5. briefly @ #800 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 12:44 pm

    ratsak

    At various points since Federation, every State has been a recipient of Special Grants from the Commonwealth.

    I think the reason an action under S99 would fail is because the GST is raised at the same rate everywhere. The Commonwealth disburses funds to the States, but these disbursements are probably not “revenue”. They are “expenditure”. It’s pretty clear the Commonwealth can expend its monies in any way it sees fit.

    That makes sense also. I think you, ar and I are in furious agreement. A challenge to s99 is pretty much no hope of getting up. Just the actual argument the court would use may differ.

    I still wonder if Nahan could argue for standing though? Purely a point of interest in how wide the court would interpret standing for such a case. It would be interesting if the state government wasn’t interested if the HC would hear the case at all. You could quite conceivably have a situation where one state opposition was lined up against the commonwealth, every state, and every other state’s opposition.

  6. The clever deception by Howard was to describe the GST as the States’ Tax and then to say that all of it would go to the States and they could decide how to divide it. Monies raised under the GST are Commonwealth revenues. The Commonwealth controls how the funds are divided.

    The fact is the Commonwealth is under-funding the States. The GST is in relative decline. The States need to stop fighting between themselves and demand a better collective deal from the Commonwealth.

    All the States need more money. Together they should insist the Commonwealth revise the States Grants formula.

  7. Nick Greiner, Fed president of Liberals, has his say

    The former New South Wales Liberal premier has also criticised the debating tactics of leaders of the no campaign, saying their attempt to convince Australians that same-sex marriage, if enshrined in law, would damage religious freedom is deliberately misleading.

    “The deliberate conflating of issues only happens when people know they cannot win an argument on its merits,” Greiner has written in the Australian. “Conflation should be called out for what it is, a debating device.

    He has asked Liberals to meditate on the wisdom of conservative doyen Edmund Burke, who believed institutions and states must be allowed to evolve because “a state without the means of some change is without the means of its conservation”.

    “Marriage is not the same as it was a century ago,” Greiner said. “The Marriage Act has been changed 20 times since it was introduced by the Menzies government in 1961. Quite simply, static institutions die.”

    “The experience in these countries has been that no one has become more gay, or less married, and the achievement of the reform has been a unifying moment for people across the political spectrum.

    Here’s the punchline

    “I do not believe religious freedom would ever be taken seriously under a Labor/Greens govern­ment, which is why this change should happen under the Coalition.

    “Through a combination of the freedom of religion enshrined in the constitution and legislation that specifically protects religious institutions, any genuine concerns will be addressed.”}

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/28/claiming-marriage-equality-threatens-religious-freedom-is-misleading-says-liberal-president

  8. ratsak

    I still wonder if Nahan could argue for standing though? Purely a point of interest in how wide the court would interpret standing for such a case. It would be interesting if the state government wasn’t interested if the HC would hear the case at all. You could quite conceivably have a situation where one state opposition was lined up against the commonwealth, every state, and every other state’s opposition.

    The one thing the WA Liberals will not do is to argue that Commonwealth Grants should be increased to all States. They bought Howard’s dummy moves.

    We need many billions spent in Perth on railways. But we are very far from being alone. All the States need more $ for investment and for services. We have to demand the Commonwealth change the deal.

  9. TallebudgeraLurker @ #761 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 10:54 am

    On the other hand, maybe it is all a large smokescreen and they should have just bought lithium ion batteries from Tesla with a 10 year service life (over to you Grimace – I have never studied their life cycle).

    There is nothing intrinsically wrong with Snowy 2.0 as a “big battery”. It is far more cost-effective than using an equivalent amount of lithium ion batteries – on the order of 100 times more cost-effective, in fact.

    The real problem, as others have pointed out, is where you get the energy from to store in your “big battery”. If it is coal-fired, you are no better off.

  10. ItzaDream

    Are conservative thinkers born with twisted logic? Greiner seems to be saying that only Coalition can be trusted with marriage equality. I thought it was a lefty dream ROFL

  11. briefly @ #808 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 1:02 pm

    ratsak

    I still wonder if Nahan could argue for standing though? Purely a point of interest in how wide the court would interpret standing for such a case. It would be interesting if the state government wasn’t interested if the HC would hear the case at all. You could quite conceivably have a situation where one state opposition was lined up against the commonwealth, every state, and every other state’s opposition.

    The one thing the WA Liberals will not do is to argue that Commonwealth Grants should be increased to all States. They bought Howard’s dummy moves.

    We need many billions spent in Perth on railways. But we are very far from being alone. All the States need more $ for investment and for services. We have to demand the Commonwealth change the deal.

    The HC wouldn’t waste a second listening to someone try and argue the Commonwealth should increase total funding. Simply isn’t in their remit.

    The issue of vertical fiscal imbalance is real. But the HC isn’t going to provide any solutions to that because in the end it’s a political problem.

    It is probably unsolvable simply because too many people at both state and federal level have too much to gain from maintaining the blame game. It was one thing Gillard tried to partly solve in education, and we all know how much thanks she got for it.

  16. briefly @ #765 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 8:58 am

    grimace
    Scott Morrison has confirmed that the L/NP won’t be matching Labor’s election commitment to contribute $1.6b to infrastructure in WA, and will be sticking with their plan to get the Productivity Commission to examine whether the GST distribution system could be better structured:

    https://element47.box.com/s/ew38jlzd5otjdrxbilvv9coa0elzkd6s
    https://element47.box.com/s/xlcy5z2zra220l4uygtjxq1z5zv2ypq3

    Brian ….risks WA voters really getting viscious and reducing the L/NP presence in WA down to O’Connor and Curtin.

    Curtin and O’Connor would always be safe. Tangney too, I reckon. Moore? It would take an even bigger voter revolt in a federal election than we saw in the State election for Moore to move. …but anything is possible. If Abbott were to retake the leadership I think Moore could crack.

    Moore, Durack and Tangney are on 61.02%, 61.06% and 61.07% margins. Assuming a uniform swing, which in context is reasonably likely, they’d fall in one foul swoop. I think based on demographics that Forrest (12.56%) is more likely to fall than the other three. The level of anger over the GST distribution, and how blatantly the L/NP abandon WA in their overall campaigning effort will dictate what happens in these four seats. All four seats are held within the state election swing of 12.8%, with the picture getting worse if you look at what happened in Liberal held seats only.

  19. @ P1 – the other problem with it is the location. Vic (3) and NSW (2) are the most connected states in the NEM, with the other three only having a single connection. Providing extra backup in VIC and NSW will not be able to solve many problems, if they exist in QLD, SA or Tas, as the itnerconnectors will be maxed out even without snowy 2.0

    Batteries would be spread across the 5 regions, and co-located with load or variable renewables, reducing the need for transmission upgrades near the snowy region, as well as interconnection between the states (2 of which are seriously considering a link 2.0). They would also reduce the need for extra distribution into city centres.

  20. Just had lunch in a local cafe and perused hard-copies of the SMH (this is a better class of cafe) and also the Telecrap.

    The Telecrap is running a double-page feature disparaging the asylum seekers Dutton wants to kick out. Apparently living the high life on the taxpayer dollar (on $100 per week? Don’t think so). It’s billed as an ‘exclusive’, so it’s a drip-feed from Dutton’s or the PM’s office and/or some crap they made up.

  21. Scott Morrison’s riposte that Bill Shorten’s promise of $1.6 Billion is a ‘sugar hit’ completely ignored the fact that the money promised by Labor is actually for concrete things.

  24. Crikey

    The government made the official announcement today through a drop to Sharri Markson in The Daily Telegraph, with the focus on asylum seekers receiving government payments and accommodation, and a focus on four asylum seekers with less serious medical conditions. According to Dutton in this report: “The medical care has been provided and through tricky legal moves they are now prevented from being returned to their country of origin, Manus or Nauru.”
    …
    Immigration Minister Peter Dutton says the new visa is all about how much it costs to keep asylum seekers in Australia: “In some cases, this con has been going on for years, costing the Australian taxpayer tens of thousands of dollars for each individual and seeing them receive more welfare, including housing, than pensioners who have worked here all their lives.”

    Dutton portrayed the asylum seekers as employing “tricky” legal manoeuvres to stay in Australia, but it is possible the move is part of a ploy to avoid engaging in the legal cases brought by the asylum seekers. The Human Rights Law Centre’s Hugh De Kretser told Sky News this morning that the government had introduced the policy instead of challenging the cases in court.

    “At the heart of those claims is a very simple issue, we say that these people would suffer very serious harm if they return to Nauru or Manus Island. The government could choose to challenge those cases in court, it hasn’t done that.”

    “Instead what it’s done is announce this policy out of the blue to make them destitute to try and coerce them back to Manus and Nauru.”

    The government agreed to pay $70 million to asylum seekers on Manus Island earlier this year, instead of allowing a case challenging their detention being allowed to be heard in court.

  25. Legal moves by asylum seekers, environmentalists, civil rights activists and so forth are ‘tricky’, ‘lawfare’, ‘unAustralian’, etc. Those engaged in by the Government (when held by the Coalition) or big corporations are ‘clever’, ‘astute’ and so forth.

  26. grimace

    Moore, Durack and Tangney are on 61.02%, 61.06% and 61.07% margins

    Love the optimism!

    Of these, I reckon Durack is the most likely. Moore and Tangney have their share of riverside or ocean-fronting suburbs….very intractable. It would be a dream come true to remove Goodenough from Moore. 🙂

  27. C@tmomma @ #814 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 1:15 pm

    Lizzie, the federal president of the Liberal Party is saying what he must.

    It’s a clever point to his party that they had better do it their trusty way, or otherwise the Labor/Greens (lumped for max socialist scare impact) will rob you of your churchy freedoms (to be patriarchal discriminating child rapist protectors) – a position completely at odds with his noble claim to keep the debate pure.

    But I did like some of his lines – no one is more gay, no one is less married because of SSM.

  28. Of course the whole purpose of the offhsore processing of asylum seekers was always to put and keep asylum seekers outside the protection of Australian law. It’s our own Guantanamo.

  29. ratsak

    The HC wouldn’t waste a second listening to someone try and argue the Commonwealth should increase total funding.

    Oh, quite right. I meant the argument has to be made politically.

    In principle, having the Commonwealth raise funds and then pass them on is not a bad idea. It prevents the States from engaging in “competitive federalism”, such as Joh B-P used to advocate.

    We need to substantially lift investment in our urban economies. This must be led by the States. The Commonwealth can support this with funding but essentially it requires State action.

  30. Steve777

    Yes, the point is well made that Dutton and his crew will do anything, pay any amount of money, to prevent AS cases going to court. Meanwhile he is blaming the Constitution for preventing him from having his way.


  31. Paula Snowdon, who runs the Hub House, a converted end-of-terrace community centre on Seventh Street, describes malnourished families begging for food. “Most had received benefit sanctions and were basically starving when they came to us,” she said.

    “benefit sanctions”. I wonder if this is where the liberals got there drug testing idea from? Close the coal mines; starve them to death. Perhaps Manus island is an experiment also.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/aug/26/blighted-coalfields-village-life-pit-village-people-starving-horden-co-durham

  32. Yes, Steve777’s point is entirely accurate.

    The whole reason for offshore detention is to avoid the Australian legal system.

  33. PeeBee @ #762 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 10:54 am

    Lurker, I saw that the drilling was already underway in the Age article. It made me think, where is the money coming from to do this as Tremble is only announcing the $29m for the feasibility study today!

    PeeBee @ #762 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 10:54 am

    Lurker, I saw that the drilling was already underway in the Age article. It made me think, where is the money coming from to do this as Tremble is only announcing the $29m for the feasibility study today!

    PeeBee,

    Snowy Hydro would be funding the study from their investigations budget (which the board would have approved noting that the board answers to either 3 x 1 (or 3 x 2 = 6) government ministers). Any additional money that Snowy Hydro can scrape up from the owners helps either this wholly three governments owned business fund their study or adds to their bottom line if the study is already fully budgeted (which in the case of GOBs is normally paid as dividends to the owners).

    The study was announced months ago on the 11th May , refer to:

    https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/news/snowy-hydro-and-smec-reunite-for-snowy-2-0/

    There was an industry briefing in june 2017:

    https://www.snowyhydro.com.au/news/snowy-hydro-briefs-industry-on-snowy-2-0/

    I think that today’s announcement was about more Federal money being tipped into Snowy Hydro’s budget bucket.

  34. Crikey

    The Prime Minister’s “Snowy Hydro 2.0” project began life as an attempt to influence Newspoll — specifically, in response to what Malcolm Turnbull saw as a blatant effort by Tony Abbott to influence Newspoll against him in February. The idea was, we learnt via Senate estimates, cobbled together in two weeks in March, so that Turnbull could announce the project on March 16.

    Productivity Commission

    … “it is important that any proposals be carefully evaluated and that consideration be given to alternatives that might address emerging problems in the electricity market in a more efficient and less costly manner. A risk, otherwise, is that future generations of taxpayers will be called on to foot the bill for precipitate responses to perceived crises now.”

    It’d be a hell of thing if that happened to Snowy Hydro 2.0. That would make that March Newspoll the most expensive poll in Australian history.

  35. lizzie @ #830 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 2:05 pm

    Yes, the point is well made that Dutton and his crew will do anything, pay any amount of money, to prevent AS cases going to court. Meanwhile he is blaming the Constitution for preventing him from having his way.

    Peter Dutton’s instincts are profoundly authoritarian and undemocratic. Of course he would find constraints imposed on the exercise of his powers by law and by the Constitution irksome.

    I can think of any number of current and historical regimes (which I won’t name) where he would have fitted in very comfortably.

  36. lizzie @ #763 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 10:56 am

    TallebudgeraLurker

    That all sounds very expensive. Will it really be worth it? (Speaking as someone who pretends no expertise on any of this stuff.)

    Considering the extent of large diameter hard rock tunneling required as well as the construction of rock caverns, the rock coring borehole drilling budget (which I have not seen) is likely to be very well spent if the project proceeds since it will reduce the risk allowance that the various joint ventures (often overseas contractors teamed with 1 or more Tier 1 Australian contractors) will need to allow in their tenders. It is often the largest risk in these types of projects

  38. Voice Endeavour @ #764 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 10:57 am

    The Snowy plan is simple.

    Complete a feasbility study/CBA, which contracts the earlier ones performed over the past several decades by concluding that the project is a go-er. This is achieved through a combination of heroic assumptions and outright falsehoods.

    Lose government to Labor shortly after the CBA comes back.

    If Labor decide not to go ahead, they get blamed for not trying to solve the ‘energy crisis’ when solutions are right in front of them.

    If Labor go ahead, they get blamed for the ridiculous cost overruns when the obviously incorrect assumptions turn out to be incorrect. Liberals get to claim credit for the thing being built but blame Labor for the cost.

    If Labor produce an objective CBA, they get blamed for duplicating existing work and being all talk, no action.

    I think that the inclusion of the Victorian and New South Wales governments as joint owners of Snowy Hydro with the Commonwealth will probably apply an appropriate level of overview.

    Federal Labor will probably ensure that it is constructed if the project can honestly jump through all of the hoops.

    In my opinion and subject to a positive business case return on investment analysis, Australia needs to invest in nation building infrastructure which remains in public ownership.

  40. Alice Hill‏
    @Alice_C_Hill

    It took 8 years & Sandy destruction to agree on a federal building standard to protect against flood. Trump killed it 10 days before #Harvey


  41. Player One

    ….

    The real problem, as others have pointed out, is where you get the energy from to store in your “big battery”. If it is coal-fired, you are no better off.

    I liked a line on one of the USA talk shows: “I know I shouldn’t call trump voters stupid; but they should meet me half way and stop being stupid”.

    Yes in times gone by Tumut 3 was needed to store excess coal fired power; available because you couldn’t turn the coal fired stations down; as the coal stations close the excess goes with them. Why do they want to build more batteries (pump storage or otherwise)? Because they want to store unavailable excess non existent coal fired power? I don’t think so. There must be another reason; oh perhaps it is because wind blowing is a little unpredictable.

    Canning snowy 2 is about as stupid as the Liberals canning a decent NBN and would lead to the same misery for Labor as the Liberals are now suffering over the mess they have made of the NBN.

  43. lizzie @ #836 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 2:21 pm

    TallebudgeraLurker

    Have we evidence of an Environmental Effects Statement? Asking for a friend. 😉

    The two dams which form the headwater and tailwater reservoirs already exist – so these won’t need an EIS or EES or REF. Managing the tunnel and underground cavern spoil will need one of these studies if it proceeds. Clearing high voltage transmission route alignments and construction of towers for any extensions will likely need environmental studies to support applications and approvals.

    I haven’t heard from my acquaintances if an EIS or EES or REF is planned, I would imagine the feasibility study must be completed first, the scope of the project clearly defined, and the project given approval to move to the next phase before any EISs or EESs or REFs can be properly scoped.

  46. ratsak @ #767 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 11:09 am

    TallebudgeraLurker @ #760 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 10:51 am

    PeeBee,

    In my experience, no business (private or government owned) invests a large amount of money in that much hard rock drilling unless they are searching for rare earth minerals or intend to go to tender to build one or more tunnel/s through hard rock or to build very large underground caverns to house large turbines and pumps.

    This same mob is didn’t think twice about pissing $120 – $170mil against a wall just to avoid having to deal with some pissed off loons in the party room if they just allowed a conscience vote on amending the Marriage Act.

    In my experience there is no stupid, wasteful, or downright illegal bit of vandalism these pricks wouldn’t happily sign up for to gain a tiny political win.

    Snowjob 2.0 might have all sorts of good reasons for being, but as with everything this mob touches it is more likely to be a sham, and/or turn out to be a fuck up.

    Ratsak, please have some faith in an Australian (three) Government Owned Business – I loathe the LNP but do not loathe Australian GOBs that construct nation building infrastructure (if it passes the financial investment criteria).

  47. Murdoch sounds like a sore loser over channel 10 going to CBS:

    Free US TV never less popular
    1:18PMDARREN DAVIDSON, STEPHEN BROOK
    CBS purchase of Ten Network comes at time when US free-to-air programming has never been less popular with Australians.

  48. Player One @ #809 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 11:07 am

    TallebudgeraLurker @ #761 Monday, August 28th, 2017 – 10:54 am

    On the other hand, maybe it is all a large smokescreen and they should have just bought lithium ion batteries from Tesla with a 10 year service life (over to you Grimace – I have never studied their life cycle).

    There is nothing intrinsically wrong with Snowy 2.0 as a “big battery”. It is far more cost-effective than using an equivalent amount of lithium ion batteries – on the order of 100 times more cost-effective, in fact.

    The real problem, as others have pointed out, is where you get the energy from to store in your “big battery”. If it is coal-fired, you are no better off.

    100 times more cost effective? You are talking rubbish as is usual for you on energy matters.

    The Snowy 2.0 brain fart has blown out in cost by 50% before the latest feasibility study has even been completed, so who knows where the starting number will end up? Once we have the starting number from the feasibility study, which come with an “all care, no responsibility” disclaimer, the actual project would undoubtedly blow out, as almost all large scale engineering projects do.

    At least with batteries, no matter what their actual cost (and you’d get an enormous discount for buying $3b worth in one hit), they would be delivered and working within a few months and without an estimated one billion plus in grid upgrade costs.

  49. Trump tried unsuccessfully to open Moscow Trump Tower complex during 2016 election

    Even as he campaigned for president, Donald Trump and his business associates were trying to open a Moscow Trump Tower, but they were unsuccessful, said The Washington Post on Sunday night.

    Russian-born oligarch — and purported high-ranking figure in Russia’s criminal underworld — Felix Sater strongly encouraged Trump to visit Moscow to help push the proposal with local investors.

    Sater — who recently confided to friends and family that he believes that he and Trump will both end up behind bars — promised Trump that he could get Russian President Vladimir Putin to say “great things” about Trump in support of the development project.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/trump-tried-unsuccessfully-to-open-moscow-trump-tower-complex-during-2016-election/

  50. AR @ 2:29PM:

    Implicit Godwin.

    Which isn’t to say I disagree. The scary thing is that nobody really seems to care. Refugees are generally accepted as being nonpeople.

    Yes I wasn’t too subtle. Cultivating contempt for an outgroup and treating them as non-people also fits the bill.

    As far as namecalling goes, a senior Government Minister can call the Opposition Leader a Communist and compare him to Stalin and that’s just robust debate or fair comment. But call Peter Dutton a proto-fascist (which is what he is, if not a full-blown one) and Government members and their media allies would go completely spare.

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