I’m back to running primary figures as the headline for the latest fortnightly YouGov-Fifty Acres poll, because their two-party headline figures remain highly unorthodox – in this case attributing a 51-49 lead to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time, based on near equal results on the primary vote. The pollster’s other peculiarity, low primary votes for both major parties, are maintained, with the Coalition steady on 34% and Labor up a point to 33%. At 10% apiece, the two larger minor parties are only slightly higher than with the other pollsters, with the Greens down on a fortnight ago and One Nation up one. The larger difference is the the remainder account for 13% (Nick Xenophon Team 5%, Christian parties 4%, other/independent 4%), compared with 9% from both Newspoll and Essential Research.
I’ve also been provided with detail on YouGov’s weightings and breakdowns, which indicate that they are weighting heavily by past vote to correct for an excess of non-major party voters in their sample and a paucity of Coalition voters. By contrast, the age and gender balance of their sample is reasonably proportionate to the overall voting population, aside from the usual problem of having not enough respondents from the 18-24 cohort. This week at least, the dramatic two-party preferred result is down to nearly three-quarters of the 103 surveyed One Nation supporters favouring the Coalition, compared with 50-50 in the 15 lower house seats the party contested last year, and 61-39 at the Western Australian election in March, when the Liberals had the benefit of an across-the-board preference deal (for which they paid the price in other ways). If there really is something in this, this week’s primary vote numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research would have converted to respective Labor leads of 52-48 and 51-49. Perhaps significantly, more than half of the One Nation supporters are identified as having voted for the Coalition last year.
The poll also finds 45% saying Barnaby Joyce should step aside pending the High Court’s ruling on his eligibility, with 38% saying he should remain. On the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, 74% rate themselves likely to participate compared with 17% for unlikely; 59% say they will vote yes (down one from early July), with 33% for no (up five); 39% express concern it will lead to “homophobic abuse”, and 42% that it will “cause division”, with respective scores of 51% and 49% for not concerned. Twenty-one per cent support a tax to address the gender pay gap with 59% opposed (16% to 67% among men, 26% to 50% among women). Questions on trust in institutions records 44% expressing trust in banks, 35% in parliament, 41% in newspapers and 72% in Medicare, with respective negative scores of 53%, 63%, 55% and 24%. A question on most important election issues, from which respondents were directed to pick four, has health and hospitals well in the clear on 49%, followed by a big glut between 25% and 29% (pensions, immigrants and asylum seekers, job security and unemployment, living standards, schools and education, the national economy).
FS
LOL.
Is it me or is it really depressing reading this morning, capped off with the divine right of Malcolm.
The exaggeration of the difference in our society has momentum. There’s a franticness crept in. Jones railing against Stan Grant. Cormann whose very voice drives me spare promising evil under socialism. Libs defying the Senate, presumably guided by the divinity in their leader, warning importers to pursue the importation of cannabis for terminal illness at their peril.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-23/cannabis-email-has-government-accused-of-defying-senate/8835622
The resignation of Trump’s State Dept’s science envoy, prompted by Trump’s rabid rally rant in Phoenix brought a wry smile for its composition, each paragraph’s opening letter spelling out IMPEACH, but the contents are sobering and underline the complete mess the world finds itself.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/impeach-donald-trumps-science-envoy-quits-with-letter-embedded-with-message-20170823-gy2twn.html
And then some.
Apologies if I’m reposting previous links.
With the passing of Fiona Richardson in Victoria would it be correct to assume that a by-election will now be required to fill the vacant position in Northcote?
victoria
My sympathy to your family on your bereavement.
I suppose with his inabilities to separate the State from his religion, it’s probably the only way Hastie could justify supporting Turnbull.
Narcissus was the son of a God. Does that count?
Or perhaps we’ve seen the birth of a new religion. Trumbolicism, for the remaining adherents of the God of weakness, incompetence and misplaced delusions of grandeur
Grime
Yes
Lizzie
Thank you
Carabine on RN this morning describing Bill Shorten as the luckiest politician. The suggestion being he has had a free ride and Cormann is now going to test him.
WTF
Someone get Alison the frequency for Reality FM so she can tune in for a while.
Fulvio
Brown Bear and I thought you were being generous.
My desktop Windows 10 machine is being updated and so you will have to make do with an ersatz elephant stamp.
Corman’s Drang nar Oosten commentary may be designed to distract from the publication of the average salary of Australia’s top CEOs.
$5.7 million.
Doubtless propelled by bonuses boosted by penalty rate cuts supported by Corman.
Funny how no one ever seemed to think Abbott was lucky, but proclaimed him as a political genius – the ‘best Opposition leader ever”.
Wonder when the media will start giving Bill that title?
CTAR1
We send good wishes regarding your health.
🙂
CTAR1
Best wishes.
That gives rise to an interesting hypothetical: Would Rudd have been rolled if a more conventional less “oppositional” Opposition leader had been in place at the time. Say Turnbull, for example.
I am becoming a little concerned about the growing battle over destroying/retaining statues representing historical events. I hope it doesn’t end badly.
CTar1
This ‘new’ order (or lack of it) is causing me to miss some posts.
Dare I ask what is wrong?
‘distract from the publication of the average salary of Australia’s top CEOs.’.
Also reported today in the SMH a survey of the remuneration of CEOs has found of the top 100, all but 8 received bonuses, averaging 70% of the maximum
I’ve scrolled back and can’t find reference to CTar1’s health .. but whatever the issue may be, best wishes CTar1 from me too.
Shorten is lucky. No doubt about it. Shorten also makes his own his own luck.
With a competent and United team.
With good policies.
With good values.
With empathy for workers and the benighted.
Tony never stopped being Opposition Leader, so how can Bill do it?
Simon Katich @ #759 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 8:52 am
Similar on AM this morning with Cormann’s comments getting top billing.
They did interview Brendan O’Conner however, who sounded in no mood to put up with this shit.
zoom,
You took the words out my mouth.
Both had/have the fortune of Governments imploding but Shorten at least is proposing a positive agenda on assuming Government.
The US Right is doing great what the Right does best… smashing and destroying.
alias
I’ve scrolled back and can’t find reference to CTar1’s health .. but whatever the issue may be, best wishes CTar1 from me too.
And me
alias @ #769 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 9:04 am
Me neither. I thought that it was a result of the coding on this site.
I’m not sure there’s anything wrong with CTar1 – kezza speculated there was but it seemed to be a gut instinct thing.
I’m not sure CTar1 has any major health issues.
There was a comment last night regarding health which CTar1 seemed to refute.
Excuse me if I’m wrong.
Snap zoom.
From what I gleaned, Kezza speculated and CTar confirmed there were issues.
I suppose we could ask CTar1 for documentation to clarify this speculation. 🙂
Why is CTari refusing to release the documentation? What’s he got to hide?
Cormann’s extraordinary outburst claiming a Labor government would lead to ‘socialist revisionism’ is clearly a sign of panic in the LNP.
However this sort of over the top hyperbole is probably all they have nowadays.
Has everyone gone searching for the comment?
Is Cormann going to cut trade ties with China to distance the Coalition Goverment from the taint of socialism?
The Socialism Stupidity is just your classic Trumble in a hole strategy. Keep digging.
If this is true I hope they get struck off.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-24/melbourne-doctors-investigated-over-anti-vaccination-allegations/8837554
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/socialist-revisionism-mathias-cormanns-doomsday-warning-of-success-exodus-under-bill-shorten-20170823-gy2b34.html
When your ideology has nothing to offer, all you have is to denigrate your opponent’s.
lizzie @ #791 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 9:39 am
Brilliant from Tony Burke!
Was ist los mit dir, Mathias?
I mean how many times have we had the Trumble media fluffers come out and say the government was going to put the pressure back on Shorten?
Right from the return from Summer it’s been just watch, Brian’s got a cunning plan, like a Blackadder remake without the wit.
And every single time Bullwinkle needs another hat. It simply never occurs to these numbskulls that if they were even the slightest bit competent they’d be competitive at worst in the polls. But every single one of them is a moron. So every time it’s some new silver bullet that hasn’t been thought through and when that inevitably collapses it’s straight to hysteria.
The Coalition people are partying like it is 1977. In the last day or so I have heard 2 references to the ‘Soviet Union”an ‘East Berlin’ an “East Germany” and an “Eastern Europe”. Shorten = Lenin/Stalin/Brezhnev must be due any tick of the clock.
[lizzie
Tony BurkeVerified account @Tony_Burke · 2h2 hours ago
Lib talking points: last week NZ conspiracy! This week Communism! Next week? I’m thinking aliens….]
You never know, they might even talk about Australia.
.
.
.
.
🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣
In positive news, Australia does exist outside Sydney and Melbourne.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2017/aug/24/gourmet-traveller-names-adelaides-orana-restaurant-of-the-year