I’m back to running primary figures as the headline for the latest fortnightly YouGov-Fifty Acres poll, because their two-party headline figures remain highly unorthodox – in this case attributing a 51-49 lead to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time, based on near equal results on the primary vote. The pollster’s other peculiarity, low primary votes for both major parties, are maintained, with the Coalition steady on 34% and Labor up a point to 33%. At 10% apiece, the two larger minor parties are only slightly higher than with the other pollsters, with the Greens down on a fortnight ago and One Nation up one. The larger difference is the the remainder account for 13% (Nick Xenophon Team 5%, Christian parties 4%, other/independent 4%), compared with 9% from both Newspoll and Essential Research.
I’ve also been provided with detail on YouGov’s weightings and breakdowns, which indicate that they are weighting heavily by past vote to correct for an excess of non-major party voters in their sample and a paucity of Coalition voters. By contrast, the age and gender balance of their sample is reasonably proportionate to the overall voting population, aside from the usual problem of having not enough respondents from the 18-24 cohort. This week at least, the dramatic two-party preferred result is down to nearly three-quarters of the 103 surveyed One Nation supporters favouring the Coalition, compared with 50-50 in the 15 lower house seats the party contested last year, and 61-39 at the Western Australian election in March, when the Liberals had the benefit of an across-the-board preference deal (for which they paid the price in other ways). If there really is something in this, this week’s primary vote numbers from Newspoll and Essential Research would have converted to respective Labor leads of 52-48 and 51-49. Perhaps significantly, more than half of the One Nation supporters are identified as having voted for the Coalition last year.
The poll also finds 45% saying Barnaby Joyce should step aside pending the High Court’s ruling on his eligibility, with 38% saying he should remain. On the same-sex marriage plebiscite-survey, 74% rate themselves likely to participate compared with 17% for unlikely; 59% say they will vote yes (down one from early July), with 33% for no (up five); 39% express concern it will lead to “homophobic abuse”, and 42% that it will “cause division”, with respective scores of 51% and 49% for not concerned. Twenty-one per cent support a tax to address the gender pay gap with 59% opposed (16% to 67% among men, 26% to 50% among women). Questions on trust in institutions records 44% expressing trust in banks, 35% in parliament, 41% in newspapers and 72% in Medicare, with respective negative scores of 53%, 63%, 55% and 24%. A question on most important election issues, from which respondents were directed to pick four, has health and hospitals well in the clear on 49%, followed by a big glut between 25% and 29% (pensions, immigrants and asylum seekers, job security and unemployment, living standards, schools and education, the national economy).
Next week might be Victorian Labor Party connections with the Calabrian Mafia … no … wait ….
The Soviet Union hasn’t been a going concern for 26 years. Do they think this is going to resonate with anyone under the age of 45?
Turnbull visiting Albury/Wodonga today. Must be shoring up Cathy’s vote.
And there is no better demonstration of what a bunch of morons this government is from top to bottom than Mathias.
The media push him as one of their top performers. Yet this clown was as much behind the 2014 budget as Hockey. And now he’s one of the driving forces behind the votesurveyfarce. He’s going to get his arse handed to him by the HC on that.
His only talent is to robotically repeat nonsense. As though being able to do Pyne without being a smarmy little git you want to punch is a talent worth celebrating. If the moron had the first clue he would have pulled Tony and Joe aside back in 14 and explained how committing hari kari is not a formula for success. And now he would be kicking heads on the right to give Trumble an easy win on the Marriage Act.
In a party of idiots the imbeciles look like leaders.
Simon Katich @ #759 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 8:52 am
……………………………………………………………………………………
Reminds me of an old boss of mine saying years ago how “the harder he worked, the luckier he got’
Plus this recently from the unlikely source of Laurie Oaks –
He is no Messiah – who needs one anyway.
[zoomster
Turnbull visiting Albury/Wodonga today. Must be shoring up Cathy’s vote.]
🙂
… by destroying the Liberal vote.
Savva was all about the ‘pressure’ on Shorten today.
Apparently Shorten has many questions to answer, going back to his AWU days, oh and he isn’t Bob Hawke.
And there is the (now discredited) $150bn tax hike.
The Coalition is going for the Gotterdammerung Gambit…
Oh yeah, Savva also said Labor’s claim that inequality was at a 70 year high ‘has been discredited ‘.
ratsak @ #804 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 10:00 am
LOL
I would have thought Turnball has many questions to answer over his HIH days, and oh, he isn’t Malcolm Frazer …
ACCC will allow Network Ten takeover by Lachlan Murdoch, Bruce Gordon
The competition watchdog has given the green light to a takeover of Network Ten by Lachlan Murdoch and Bruce Gordon, shaking off concerns about News Corporation gaining a greater stranglehold in the Australian media market.
Mr Murdoch and Mr Gordon lobbed a conditional bid for Ten last Friday along with Oaktree Capital Management and Anchorage Capital Group. The pair are still prevented from purchasing the free-to-air broadcaster by media ownership regulations.
The government is trying to remove the laws which prevent Mr Murdoch and Mr Gordon from buying Ten but has so far been unsuccessful,
http://www.afr.com/business/media-and-marketing/tv/accc-will-allow-network-ten-takeover-by-lachlan-murdoch-bruce-gordon-20170823-gy2uvz
So, Niki.
What was the RC about?
Or are you saying that the Liberals are so incompetent that they can’t even properly organise a witch hunt.
That was my first thought also when I heard about Cormann’s speech. Turnbull is getting very desperate and will try anything to remain as PM. No more talk about how exciting it is to be an Australian, or that stuff about everything being on the table for a full open discussion. Just good old fear mongering, the one tried and true thing the Liberals have always been “good” at.
Except this time it won’t work. The spectre of socialism, communism, or evil unions, is just not going to fly in today’s Australia where much of the population is crying out for government assistance to rescue them from the excesses of neo liberalism –
unemployment, under employment, stagnating wages, job insecurity, soaring energy prices – the list goes on. Every time the Liberals try to pull their bullshit it will just open the door for Shorten to switch the subject to his main theme – inequality – and the Liberals are just too dumb to see that.
John Howard said after his 1996 election win that the times suited him. Well now they suit Bill Shorten and he has already shown that he is smart enough to take full advantage of it (are you listening Rex?)
I listened to a bit of Richo on Sky last night and was interested to hear him say there is no doubt Shorten has all his ducks in line regarding his citizenship. I always thought that was the case but it was good to hear someone like him confirming it.
Try this garbage from Katherine Harper PhD (Syd). She’s not a homophobe but will vote No because the Yes vote (unlike the No vote) is shutting down debate and considered decisions making (remind me what the plebyvey thing is) and marriage isn’t a right because it just isn’t but the Yes vote will probably get there one day and she might vote Yes then when one day comes and marriage (remind me of the divorce rate) is the bedrock of our country like other solid christian values – let me finish that for her – like patrimony and discrimination and ripping off the poor.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/as-a-30yearold-woman-everyone-expects-me-to-vote-yes-but-i-wont-be-20170823-gy2aar.html
ItzaDream
I wonder what subject was her major for her PhD?
This “I needn’t vote because it’s coming anyway” nonsense is just an excuse for voting no.
ItzaDream @ #817 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 10:33 am
All praise to you for your post.
I usually start the day being glad to be alive.
As a bonus, after reading your post, I am so pleased that to know that if one is not a homophobe and likes to befuddle and defongerate oneself with spurious crappola and malarkey one should then vote “NO” should the plebbything come to pass. Have I got that right ❓ or is a PhD in something or other esoteric necessary ❓
and, the dame russkies are acoming to git us.
That damned Mr. Shorten, is there no end to his iniquity:?:
More ROTFL emoji 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
lizzie,
I think we can safely assume it wasn’t in critical thinking and logic.
Tactically…the Libs have no other options but to put pressure in Shorten personally. I think they will see grasping that straw as their best option given the PPM polling. FFS, they have nothing else to exploit and going that feeds the perceptions of their base at the very least. I reckon thats their problem, they can feed the base, but have nothing to offer to grow the base.
All the polling indicates to me that while people dont see Shorten as someone they are really enthused about as PM (a position i disagree with), they have turned off the Libs big time and that’s whats reflected in the TPP figures. Same same problem Julia Gillard had. People had made up their minds and switched off to ANYTHING that the Govt does that may be positive. Compounded by the fact that the Libs have FAR less to offer that is positive for the punters than the previous Labor Govt, AND their continuing propensity for unnecessary political self harm (which is getting silly).
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-24/black-footed-tree-rat-rediscovered-in-kimberley/8836754
Barney in Go Dau @ #823 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 10:48 am
What gets me is that she and Fairfax think it’s a worthy appraisal of the situation and fit to print. I didn’t see big words like equality, humanity, empathy, social justice anywhere that I recall.
lizzie @ #825 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 10:55 am
Look at the little black feet. So cute.
[lizzie,
I think we can safely assume it wasn’t in critical thinking and logic.]
So Theology then.
Wonder what he tastes like?
KayJay @ #822 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 10:47 am
As a bonus, after reading your post, I am so pleased that to know that if one is not a homophobe and likes to befuddle and defongerate oneself with spurious crappola and malarkey one should then vote “NO” should the plebbything come to pass. Have I got that right ❓ or is a PhD in something or other esoteric necessary ❓
and, the dame russkies are acoming to git us.
That damned Mr. Shorten, is there no end to his iniquity:?:
More ROTFL emoji 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
And a very good day to you good sir, and the bear. I’m not very good at emojis but a wallaby for you and a honey pot for bear. Need to stock up.
Itza,
I wouldn’t be too critical of Fairfax.
Too me, it’s a classic example of how vacuous the “no” position is.
I think Fairfax is doing a service especially if they allow a response to highlight this.
Sounds like an ideal spot for some billionaire Indian to open up a coal mine, especially with a bit of financial support from the Turnbull government. Heaven knows how many thousands of jobs could be created.
Barney in Go Dau @ #832 Thursday, August 24th, 2017 – 11:07 am
Point taken B. It’s embarrassingly bad really.
Just thinking of the Katherine Harper piece it struck me as being very similar to P1’s position on the issue.
I imagine that Fairfax is so strapped for cash that they will accept articles from almost anywhere so long as payment is minimal or nil.
I wonder if anyone on PB has ever written an article for them?
Plus this recently from the unlikely source of Laurie Oaks –
YOU have to feel a bit sorry for Scott Morrison as Bill Shorten revs up Labor’s crusade against economic inequality.
Shorten has all the rousing lines, and delivered them with gusto a week ago in a speech titled “Tackling Inequality: A Labor Mission”.
Lines like: “Inequality is Australians going for years without a pay rise — but paying more taxes than their boss.”
And: “Inequality kills hope. It feeds that sense, that resentment, that the deck is stacked against ordinary people, that the fix is in and the deal is done.”
The Sphere of Influence has always been able to do what not a lot of other CPG journos are capable of any more…exist in Canberra but have an eye for what is motivating the great unwashed in the boonies.
And on this subject he is more than correct. Inequality is going to be the big kahuna issue at the next election. Only last night at our branch meeting we were told by our newest member (age ~ 45, married with a couple of kids, does the big commute every day to work), that the reason he joined the Labor Party(and this is a guy with not a lot of spare time, as you can see, but he did make the effort to join and come along), the overriding issue of concern for him, was the issue of Inequality and how it is affecting him, his family, their future and many of his friends also.
Bill Shorten is also good at keeping his ear to the ground and picking up what resonates out here in the boondocks. : )
The Trump Imbroglio has ramped up a notch
Conversation
Dr. Dena Grayson
Dr. Dena Grayson @DrDenaGrayson
·
2h
Oops my link didn’t work
Reformatted, so it makes sense : )
Plus this recently from the unlikely source of Laurie Oaks –
YOU have to feel a bit sorry for Scott Morrison as Bill Shorten revs up Labor’s crusade against economic inequality.
Shorten has all the rousing lines, and delivered them with gusto a week ago in a speech titled “Tackling Inequality: A Labor Mission”.
Lines like: “Inequality is Australians going for years without a pay rise — but paying more taxes than their boss.”
And: “Inequality kills hope. It feeds that sense, that resentment, that the deck is stacked against ordinary people, that the fix is in and the deal is done.”
journos are capable of any more…exist in Canberra but have an eye for what is motivating the great unwashed in the boonies.
And on this subject he is more than correct. Inequality is going to be the big kahuna issue at the next election. Only last night at our branch meeting we were told by our newest member (age ~ 45, married with a couple of kids, does the big commute every day to work), that the reason he joined the Labor Party(and this is a guy with not a lot of spare time, as you can see, but he did make the effort to join and come along), the overriding issue of concern for him, was the issue of Inequality and how it is affecting him, his family, their future and many of his friends also.
Bill Shorten is also good at keeping his ear to the ground and picking up what resonates out here in the boondocks. : )
ItzaDream
I was wondering where Katherine Harper PhD has been for the last 20 odd years.
Memo to Katherine – the legitimate public debate has well and truly been had.
I give up! I missed a line. But you get the picture. : )
Ctari
That was a fascinating little article you posted earlier regarding Saudi and Iran.
Initially it seemed a little surprising, given the Saudi Qatar spat just a month ago, where Saudi and the other Gulf States accused Qatar of being too close to Iran. This was portrayed as an outcome of the aggressive new Saudi Heir and crown prince, who also was responsible for the ongoing war with Yemen.
However I did read a small piece recently (I sadly cannot remember who by) but it suggested that the Crown Prince was REALLY a pragmatist, not the gung-ho lunatic he was portrayed as being by most.
Now when I read the article I took it with a whole salt cellar but noted it as interesting. Your piece tends to support that article.
So there is a slight possibility of Saudi and Iran settling their differences which would remove one major source of instability in the ME.
Of course Saudi’s failure to make headway in Yemen, despite its expensive military and also the pending total defeat of its proxy army of ISIS in both Iraq and Syria may be influencing this new found pragmatism.
At the moment the best I can sort out is the following alignment in the ME.
G1. Sunni and Arabic – Saudi plus most Gulf states plus Jordan (trying to stay semi neutral) plus the exiled Yemeni government plus the remnant ISIS and the HTS rebel faction in Idlib, Syria. (outside ME – USA support now seems withdrawn)
G2. Shia (both Arabic and other) – Iran, Yemeni rebels, Iraqi government and most of the people of south Iraq, Hezbollah, Syrian government, (outside ME – Russia)
G3. Sunni but Turkey aligned – Turkey, Qatar, one of the rebel factions in Idlib and northern Syria, Egypt (not absolutely sure about Egypt)
G4. Kurdish – groups in Syria, Iraq, Iran and Turkey, Israel (a long standing association), (outside ME – USA)
g1 and g2 have been implacably opposed
g3 and g4 are implacably opposed although Israel and Turkey get on OK
g1 and g3 were in alignment in Syria but the collapse of the plan to topple Assad has changed allegiances
g1 and g4 are probably allies of convenience – not much overlap
g2 and g3 – not sure
g2 and g4 – probable hostility due to conflicting interests but likely to make a reasonable settlement if pragmatic
Anyway hope this is of interest to a couple of you
Check out Katherine Harper’s bio . I reckon she works for Mesma
“Dr Katherine Harper completed her PhD at the University of Sydney. She has since worked in international development and foreign affairs policy”
mike,
As she’s only 30 I’d imagine she has been enveloped in her education, especially with a PhD she wouldn’t have finished that too long ago.
Yes, Bill Shorten listens and consults with real people, the populist b*stard, instead of talking things over with the press gallery first.
zoomster
Yes, Bill Shorten listens and consults with real people, the populist b*stard, instead of talking things over with the press gallery first.
_______________________________
I haven’t been to any of his ‘Town Hall’ meetings, but from what I have read here and elsewhere, these have been central to the development of Labor’s political direction. Unlike most of his fellow politicians who use these meetings to be seen to be listening, he has actually used them to find out what people are really thinking and to develop responses and policies in response.
Cormann
Aliens; that explains it; Cormann has hidden it well; next weeks argument “exterminate; exterminate; exterminate”
My husband has observed that Cormann gets wheeled out whenever the government is in real trouble….which is why we see such a lot of him.
Don’t forget that it was Matthias Cormann that was behind the WA Liberals getting into bed with Pauline Hanson at the last State Election. So I really wouldn’t be looking in his direction for federal Liberal strategic nous.
One thing I notice about Shorten in these audience forums, when he’s asked a question he often starts by asking the questioner about some specifics to their situation.
He tries to target the answer but when he doesn’t have the knowledge or the information he admits he can’t answer their question fully.
He often says WTTE, “See me after and I’ll get your details and follow it up.”
He often says things like, “I’m not going to promise that because I can’t.” He said something like this in relation to the NBN on Q&A Monday night.
In a time where honesty is a major issue in politics I think Shorten tempering his remarks like this is a good long term strategy and the more of these type of events he continues to do the better.
Nice quote – “Let’s not confuse left wing rage and right wing rage. Right wing rage gave us the KKK; Left wing rage gave us the weekend.”
Cooper eviscerates Trump: ‘World’s biggest victim — trapped in the body of world’s most powerful man’
“Last night, the president stood before a crowd of supporters in Phoenix and revealed just how far he’ll go, how much he’ll bend the truth, whose memory he’ll sully, who he will attack—even within his own party,” Cooper began Wednesday night. “Sometimes he does this to cover, sometimes he does it because he cheerily thinks of himself as a victim. A victim of Republicans, reporters, leaking staffers, Democrats, and just about everyone else.”
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/cooper-eviscerates-trump-worlds-biggest-victim-trapped-in-the-body-of-worlds-most-powerful-man/