Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Essential Research records support for a postal survey on same-sex marriage dissolving on contact with reality, while voting intention remains unchanged.

The Guardian reports that Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average has Labor’s two-party preferred lead unchanged at 54-46, with the Coalition (37%), Labor (39%), the Greens (9%) and One Nation (8%) all unchanged on the primary vote. The poll also records 39% approval of the postal ballot on same-sex marriage with 47% opposed, just one week after the same question elicited respective results of 43% and 38%.

The survey also found that 33% considered the top marginal tax rate of 47% too high, compared with 12% for too low and 39% for about right. A suite of questions on the Turnbull government’s handling of various policy areas recorded negative results for “the implementation of the national broadband network, schools and universities funding, addressing climate change, funding health and hospitals, implementing a fair tax system and ensuring reliable and affordable energy”, with the only positive result apparently being for “protecting Australians from terrorism”. Only 15% reported satisfaction with the government’s policies and progress in implementing them, with a further 28% reckoning only that it hadn’t made enough progress, and 41% expressing disapproval for its policies and decisions.

Other questions related to respondents’ financial situations, with 53% reporting that their income had fallen behind the rising cost of living, 25% saying it had remained even, and only 15% saying it had improved.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,292 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Tom…thanks for the ref to s34(ii)..which clearly anticipated that the H-o-R would be comprised of dual nationals at the time of Federation….

    COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA CONSTITUTION ACT – SECT 34

    Qualifications of members
    Until the Parliament otherwise provides, the qualifications of a member of the House of Representatives shall be as follows:

    (i) he must be of the full age of twenty-one years, and must be an elector entitled to vote at the election of members of the House of Representatives, or a person qualified to become such elector, and must have been for three years at the least a resident within the limits of the Commonwealth as existing at the time when he is chosen;

    (ii) he must be a subject of the Queen, either natural-born or for at least five years naturalized under a law of the United Kingdom, or of a Colony which has become or becomes a State, or of the Commonwealth, or of a State.

  2. Timing seems suspicious. Did she delay announcement to avoid question time. And thus did she vote on anything while knowing she is ineligible?

  5. What an amazing week in politics.

    The Nationals leadership wiped out.

    Bipartisan standing ovation for Brandis.

    *shakes head*

  11. Nash not standing aside as minister. Same reasoning as Barnyard, and has solicitor general’s advice supporting this.

    Senate will refer her to HC on 3 September when next they meet.

    Born in Sydney. Scottish father, who died when she was 8. Always told, she says, that she would have to apply for British citizenship. But in checking this Monday, not so…..

  13. Dear Bludgers….William Deane was right, at least in part…the majority in Sykes got it wrong.

    The “persons” subject to disqualification because of the operation of s44(i) were intended to be non-nationals rather than dual nationals. This is the only way to make sense of the combined operation of 34 and 44, and to make sense of the very many years when the Parliament was in part comprised of dual nationals who made no secret of their status.

    I reckon the HC will find a way to re-write Sykes in order to void for otherwise prevent the disqualification of Australian citizens from Parliament.

  14. It’s Time

    What O’Sullivan should be kicked out for is his 49 negatively geared properties. FORTY NINE! Count ’em!

    That and being up to his neck in the Ashby conspiracy to bone Peter Slipper…

  16. Cory Bernardi @corybernardi
    ·
    5h
    I did warn you that proroguing the parliament was in national interest. Things are getting seriously weirder by the day #auspol #senateQT

  17. sprocket_ @ #2114 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 7:29 pm

    It’s Time

    What O’Sullivan should be kicked out for is his 49 negatively geared properties. FORTY NINE! Count ’em!

    That and being up to his neck in the Ashby conspiracy to bone Peter Slipper…

    I’m no supporter of Sullivan. It’s just that bludgers shouldn’t go barking up the wrong tree.

  21. Of course you could be a dual national in 1901 – you could be a British and a German citizen, or a British and a French one (for example). The concept of dual citizenship isn’t a new one.

    Sykes v Cleary was made after the changes that made British citizenship ‘foreign’, so the interpretation was made in that knowledge. It isn’t something they were unaware of.

  24. You get the impression that Labor new theses admissions were about to emerge and possibly explains why Shorten rejected Turnbull’s overture earlier in the week, why they have kept up the pressure all week and why they weren’t distracted by the hysterical hyperbole and over reach of the Government’s tactics.

  26. London (CNN)Malala Yousafzai says she is “so excited” after being accepted to study at the world famous University of Oxford.

    The 20-year-old Pakistani activist who rose to prominence after being shot in the head and neck by the Taliban while on her way home from school in 2012, has won praise for her campaigning and advocacy surrounding the rights of girls to receive education.

    Already a Nobel Peace Prize winner and the youngest ever UN Messenger of Peace, Malala will now hope to complete the prestigious Philosophy, Politics and Economics degree at Oxford.

    http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/17/europe/malala-oxford-university/index.html

  29. Do Nash seriously mean to say that she never chatted with anyone in her family about the possibility of getting an EU passport. Pull the other one.

  32. [Greensborough Growler
    Just so we all remember why people vote for the Libs.]

    The slogan is correct. It’s all about the government presiding over a heap of horse sh*t.

  35. Corporate America dumping Trump at some rate –

    Apple chief executive Tim Cook has become the latest boss to criticise President Donald Trump over his response to the white nationalist rallies in Virginia.

    Mr Cook said he did not agree there was a “moral equivalence” between white supremacists and “those who oppose them”.

    Mr Trump has disbanded two business councils after top bosses resigned.

    Mr Cook said Apple will also make donations to human rights charities.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40958559

  38. 44i is intended to keep dual citizens and anyone else under any control of a foreign government out by disqualifying them. It is obviously intended to ban any foreign control over any parliamentarian. The nationality requirements` (whether the original in 34ii or its legislative replacements) only additional effect is that stateless people are excluded.

  39. More UK Govt fantasy:

    The government plans to keep visa-free travel to the UK for EU visitors after Brexit, the BBC understands.

    But if visitors from EU countries wanted to work, study or settle in the UK they would have to apply for permission under the proposals.

    EU citizens are currently free to live and work in the UK without a permit.

    The Home Office says managing migration is about access to work and benefits as much as the ability to control entry at a physical border.

    But ministers are likely to face questions about whether there will be a back door into Britain for EU citizens and how the Home Office would stop visitors staying longer and getting jobs without a visa.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-40957301

  40. The most interesting part of Tingle’s article is about the novel structure of the case before the HC. In particular, who will be the contradictor. E.g. Who is going to cross-examine Canavan’s mum, if necessary, about the ahem reasons why they applied for Italian citizenship.

  43. Absolutely stunning doco on SBS Vice on Charlotteville .. Incredibly brave reporting by young woman reporter embedded with the Nazis. On right now for the next 15 mins.

  47. CTAR1
    The Brits are inventing something new…
    …virtual unreality: they propose no physical border between Eyre and Northern Ireland.

  49. Bolt calling for the Governor General to intervene in the Section 44 mess. But a constitutional lawyer has just said he doesn’t think it is possible. The GG must take his orders from the PM.

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