ReachTEL Victorian state marginals polling

Polls of four seats in Melbourne’s electorally sensitive south-east provide encouraging results for Daniel Andrews, whose government’s fortunes appear to have reversed.

We’ve gone an awfully long time since the last state poll in Victoria – which, I recently argued in Crikey, was probably just as well for Labor. However, a new marginal seats poll for The Age suggests either that my prognosis for Daniel Andrews’ government was unduly gloomy, or that the Liberals have been rammed amidships by the lobster-and-red-wine scandal. The report currently online does not provide primary votes or sample sizes, but the results show Labor leading 56-44 in Bentleigh (50.8-49.2 at the 2014 election), 52-48 in Frankston (50.4-49.6), 55-45 in Mordialloc (52.1-47.9) and 51-49 in Carrum (50.7-49.2). All seats are located in Melbourne south-eastern suburbs, and all were Labor gains in 2014.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

12 comments on “ReachTEL Victorian state marginals polling”

  1. Labor will pull through, despite most media in this state being stacked against him, and the fact that the Liberal’s Law and Order platform is basically destroyed because Lobster with a Mobster happened. Even if Labor falls to minority, I would think that Sheed would provide supply to Labor.

  2. I’ve long thought that the talk of Victorian Labor being in trouble was overheated. A lot of it’s resulted from some pretty dodgy polls that the Herald-Sun’s splashed: dodgy because they’re described as having been obtained from someone who commissioned them but who doesn’t want to be identified.

  3. So there is an average swing of 2.5 points to Labor but given that respondent preferences are being used (and given how unreliable their skew is lately) that could mean pretty much anything. It’s highly unlikely to be bad news for Labor and that’s about all one can say. Then again this is a very unrepresentative time to poll as it is a terrible news cycle for the Liberals and so it should be.

    Primaries should be published upfront when polls are released.

  4. I don’t think the Herald-Sun has anywhere near the impact it used to have and the amazing amount of money the Murdoch press is losing with these bits of print seems to suggest they are falling into irrelevance. The Age of course, is in even worse shape.

  5. The voters in Bentleigh are mighty impressed by the new Bentleigh station that makes Centre Road more important now the level crossing has been removed. In their heart of hearts they know the Liberals don’t improve rail lines.

    All the Liberals did was promise to remove the level crossing at New St, they closed the level crossing for 3 years. Labor replaced the wooden gates with a boom gate and reopened the crossing. And the cruisy scenic route into the CBD from Frankston, Mordialloc and Carrum is along Beach Rd so all the voters can see the difference between Labor rail improvements and Liberal improvements

  6. The Age has been going all out with the lobster/dinner headline puns.
    “Lobster dinner saga bites Coalition”
    “Guy in hot water”
    “Voters roast Guy”
    “Police clam up”

    And my favourite (about this poll):
    “ALP clawing ahead”

  7. This is a good Labor government. Possibly not quite as good as the Bracks governments at its best, but pretty good.

    I also think that Andrews is running a textbook example of how the ALP should deal with the Greens (and I say this as a Greens supporter): never (or at least rarely) mentions them, and makes sure that he adopts an assertively left-wing stance on any social issue that has at least majority support within his electoral base.

    Leftist political culture is sufficiently entrenched down here that I don’t think it will stop the progress of the Greens down here, but I still think it is almost perfect strategy.

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