We’ve gone an awfully long time since the last state poll in Victoria – which, I recently argued in Crikey, was probably just as well for Labor. However, a new marginal seats poll for The Age suggests either that my prognosis for Daniel Andrews’ government was unduly gloomy, or that the Liberals have been rammed amidships by the lobster-and-red-wine scandal. The report currently online does not provide primary votes or sample sizes, but the results show Labor leading 56-44 in Bentleigh (50.8-49.2 at the 2014 election), 52-48 in Frankston (50.4-49.6), 55-45 in Mordialloc (52.1-47.9) and 51-49 in Carrum (50.7-49.2). All seats are located in Melbourne south-eastern suburbs, and all were Labor gains in 2014.
Polls of four seats in Melbourne’s electorally sensitive south-east provide encouraging results for Daniel Andrews, whose government’s fortunes appear to have reversed.