EMRS: Liberal 37, Labor 34, Greens 16 in Tasmania

A surge in support for Labor’s new leader puts the Tasmanian Liberal government in grave peril, according to a new poll.

The latest quarterly EMRS survey of state voting intention in Tasmania records a continuing decline in support for Will Hodgman’s Liberal government, which is down two to 37%, with Labor steady on 34%, the Greens up one to 16%, and the Jacqui Lambie Network recording 5% on their first inclusion as a response option. Furthermore, Labor’s Rebecca White has opened up a solid lead as preferred premier in her second poll since she assumed the Labor leadership in March, going from 42-39 behind to 48-37 in front. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1000. Kevin Bonham’s take on the result is that the Liberals would slip into minority position with 10 or 11 seats out of 25, with Labor on 10 and the Greens on three or four, which in practice would mean a return to Labor-Greens government.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3 comments on “EMRS: Liberal 37, Labor 34, Greens 16 in Tasmania”

  1. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-12/poll-reveals-most-tasmanians-reject-lowering-school-starting-age/8800954

    Union poll reveals most Tasmanians reject lowering school starting age
    By Annah Fromberg
    Posted about an hour ago

    A poll of 1,000 Tasmanians has shown about 75 per cent oppose the Liberal Government’s plan to lower the school starting age.

    The Liberals want to reduce the compulsory school starting age by six months, which would push the voluntary kindergarten starting age down to three and a half.

    Currently it is compulsory for children to start prep in the year they turn five.

    A new EMRS poll commissioned by the United Voice Union surveyed 1,000 Tasmanian adults from August 3-7, with 760 people rejecting the proposal to lower the school starting age.

    Five hundred respondents were from the south, 250 from the north and 250 from the north west and west coast regions.

    The union said the poll’s responses were weighted to reflect the demographic profile of the state’s adult population, adding the poll’s margin of error was 3.1 per cent.

    United Voice secretary Jannette Armstrong said close to a third of people surveyed also stated they were less likely to vote for the Liberal Party based on the proposal.

    “It’s definitely reflective of what we’ve been hearing in the community but it’s really interesting to see such an overwhelming result,” she said.

    She hoped the Government would re-think its plan.

    “A lower school starting age is definitely not the magic bullet that Minister Rockliff and Premier Hodgman are claiming it to be,” she said.

    The five main reasons people opposed the plan were:

    Children of that age are too young (44 per cent)
    They need more time with family/parents (18 per cent)
    They are not ready to start earlier (14 per cent)
    They are pushed to grow up too quickly (11 per cent)
    They still need toilet training/naps (10 per cent)

    Among the 169 respondents supporting the plan, the four main reasons were:

    Children will achieve better educational outcomes (23 per cent)
    Some children are ready to start earlier (20 per cent)
    As long as it is voluntary (19 per cent)
    Not everyone can afford childcare (13)

  2. The wording of that school starting age poll did mention it was a Liberal government policy but was otherwise OK. Though the finding of 30% saying they were likely to change their vote should be ignored – that form of asking questions like that about an issue in isolation is pseudoscience with no predictive value.

  3. Re the school starting age: the headline issue – “3.5 years for kindergarten” – is a bit misleading.

    In Tasmania, unlike several other states, there are eight years of formal school before high school : Kindergarten, Prep and then years 1-6. If we consider Prep to be the first year of school proper, then the proposal would see Tasmanian kids starting that year in the range of 4.5 to 5.5 years: which seems completely reasonable to me. Under the current system, kids born in the first few months of the calendar year can end up graduating from year 12 only a couple of months shy of their 19th birthday, which seems too old.

    My main concern with the school age poll is that, given the demographic weighting of the Tasmanian population, it would include a lot of people who are aged 65 and over. I suspect that a strong majority of parents would favour the lower starting age. United Voice union, which represents workers in the childcare sector, has a clear vested interest in stopping the change.

    I very much doubt that it will be a key issue in the election. If anything, it’s likely to wedge the ALP a bit.

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