Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Essential Research records support for a postal survey on same-sex marriage dissolving on contact with reality, while voting intention remains unchanged.

The Guardian reports that Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average has Labor’s two-party preferred lead unchanged at 54-46, with the Coalition (37%), Labor (39%), the Greens (9%) and One Nation (8%) all unchanged on the primary vote. The poll also records 39% approval of the postal ballot on same-sex marriage with 47% opposed, just one week after the same question elicited respective results of 43% and 38%.

The survey also found that 33% considered the top marginal tax rate of 47% too high, compared with 12% for too low and 39% for about right. A suite of questions on the Turnbull government’s handling of various policy areas recorded negative results for “the implementation of the national broadband network, schools and universities funding, addressing climate change, funding health and hospitals, implementing a fair tax system and ensuring reliable and affordable energy”, with the only positive result apparently being for “protecting Australians from terrorism”. Only 15% reported satisfaction with the government’s policies and progress in implementing them, with a further 28% reckoning only that it hadn’t made enough progress, and 41% expressing disapproval for its policies and decisions.

Other questions related to respondents’ financial situations, with 53% reporting that their income had fallen behind the rising cost of living, 25% saying it had remained even, and only 15% saying it had improved.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,292 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  2. I watched Q&A last night. The cleric, Jensen, embodied the inherent contradiction in the position of the religious orders. While asserting he did not place himself above LGBTIQ people, he simultaneously made it clear he would discriminate against them with respect to marriage. The only explanation he could offer for this was that marriage was a very old idea.

    In denying that he was elevating himself above LGBTIQ people, Jensen described himself as a sinner, as a broken individual. This struck me as a false claim to humility on his part. While he was humble, he was not so humble that he would refrain from telling others what they could have and what they couldn’t have.

    To invoke sin in this way is in any case an outrageous trick. If we are all equal in our sins, then implicitly LGBTIQ people must be ranked as sinners. This is surely a false and deeply repellant inference, but is an inescapable one. It is, all said, an entirely contemptible claim. Jensen seemed to be unaware he was even making it.

    Despite asserting an immaterial equality-as-a-sinner, Jensen immediately repudiated actual equality with respect to marriage. In other words, he was prepared to proclaim equality in order to defend himself and then deny it in the same breath.

    Needless to say, this is all premised on a dual falsehood – first, on the entirely spurious idea that sin actually exists, and second, that it can be used to justify the denial of equal protection.

  3. Just to point out the bleeding obvious, opposition to having a postal vote at all is a lot different to how the population will vote on the ME question asked.

    I hope.

  4. On Q&A heard the second attempt at a non-homophobic argument against gay marriage. “The value of my heterosexual marriage will be reduced”. Talk about insecure. But why would you consider a gay marriage as a reduction in the value yours? What is so wrong with gay marriage? Second attempt at non-homophobic?

    In defense of English is a lot better. To begin with gay once meant happy.

    Boy didn’t Senator Abetz get creamed by Sam Dastyari; best place for Senator Abetz to start might be to disown his past press releases.

    Jamila Rizvi for the high court.

  5. don
    Just to point out the bleeding obvious, opposition to having a postal vote at all is a lot different to how the population will vote on the ME question asked.

    I hope.

    I sure hope so too. I think most people are just aghast at the tenor and content of the NO campaign.

  6. Huw Parkinson’s has done Turnbull a disservice; watching him trying to justify his position on JB and all I could see was a Huw Parkinson meshup; it was the words that did it and the illusion was total, I did not try and fight it, transformation to a clown is complete.

  8. The US is going to see a total eclipse, which is crossing the entire lower 48, slap bang through the middle for totality.

    https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/total-eclipse-towns-stock-toilet-paper-add-cell-towers-ahead-of-unprecedented-crowds/70002431

    Total eclipse towns stock toilet paper, add cell towers ahead of unprecedented crowds

    By Olivia Miltner, AccuWeather staff writer

    As the Aug. 21 solar eclipse nears, communities within the path of totality are preparing for masses of people traveling in search of the optimal viewing experience.
    The expected influx has placed an unprecedented task in front of cities and towns that are unaccustomed to large tourist populations. Places like Hopkinsville, Kentucky, are working to transform their communities to prepare for the event.
    “This is unlike anything this community has ever seen or will probably ever see again,” Hopkinsville Solar Eclipse Marketing and Events Consultant Brooke Jung said. “We’ve got people coming from 42 different states and 18 different countries.”
    Hopkinsville, which has dubbed itself “Eclipseville” because of its close proximity to the point of greatest eclipse, will experience totality for 2 minutes and 40 seconds, about the longest in the U.S.
    The city has a population of 32,000, while Christian County, where Hopkinsville is located, has a population of 70,000. During eclipse weekend, the county is expecting to host about 100,000 guests, Jung said.
    New solar eclipse totality

    In preparation, Hopkinsville is bringing in additional cell phone towers and canceling same-day surgery at the local hospital on the day of the eclipse to create an additional emergency room, Jung said.
    They’re placing officers and tow trucks around the county to reduce traffic congestion, and they are bringing in additional health department officials to help permit food truck vendors. They created a utility committee to make sure lights don’t turn on in designated viewing areas during the eclipse.

  10. Trump’s Approval Numbers Fall To The Worst In History After Bungled Charlottesville Response

    Trump’s approval is now at 34% with his disapproval at 61%. To put Trump’s numbers into context, he is polling at the same level as George W. Bush after the Iraq war went south and Hurricane Katrina.

    America is sending a clear message that they have had enough of Donald Trump.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/08/14/trumps-approval-numbers-fall-worst-history-bungled-charlottesville-response.html

  11. ‘3 days to say the KKK is bad’: ‘Modern Family’ producer rips Trump who responded faster to defend TV ratings than violence

    Danny Zuker, the executive producer of “Modern Family,” ripped President Donald Trump’s delayed response to the immense violence that went down over the weekend in Charlottesville, Virginia.

    “I once challenged @RealDonaldTrump ’s ratings & he tweeted me in 15 minutes. It took him 3 days to say the KKK is bad. Sorry, it’s too late,” Zuker fired off in his tweet.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/3-days-to-say-the-kkk-is-bad-modern-family-producer-rips-trump-who-responded-faster-to-defend-tv-ratings-than-violence/

  12. ABC TV reporter Ashlynne McGee this morning insisting that Labor is under suspicion on dual citizenship and refusing to provide papers. Very much “they’re both as bad as each other”.

  14. PhoenixRed

    Woo-hoo, I have been waiting for the Gallup tracking poll to crack 36 for months. Hopefully the dam has burst on Trump’s support base.

  16. The Essential question on the plebiscite has always been awful. Perhaps they have improved it? The wording has always read like “Do you think parliament or a plebiscite should decide the matter”. Earlier in the year I saw a poll with a more accurate question and more sensible response. I think people can see past the crappy question now.

  17. Adrian:

    In today’s Crikey, this on Oz media’s coverage of the white supremacist terror attack in Virginia:

    In an article yesterday, and this morning, abc.net.au did not use the term “terrorism” except to quote Cruz and Rubio’s tweets. SBS ran AAP copy but didn’t use the word “terror” despite the article confirming Fields’ extremist links. The Australian ran AP copy and wouldn’t use the t-word. News.com.au copied the ABC and only used “terror” in quoting tweets. Instead, Fields was described as “accused killer”, “alleged driver” and “a 20-year-old man”. Compare and contrast ABC coverage of the London Bridge and Westminster Bridge attacks earlier this year, which were immediately described as terror attacks; ditto news.com.au coverage.

    Thanks confessions, missed that from the earlier thread.
    As a student of Orwell’s writing, his essays on the power of language and propaganda read as true today as ever.

  19. I assume this 54-46 Essential was carried out before Barnaby was exposed to be Fred Dagg in real life. I wonder what Essential really is today.

  20. By Jingo the SmearStralian is full of tripe, no wonder they lost $73m for Rupert last year.

    Can you believe they are still raking over Bill Shorten’s time at the AWU 20 years ago? And where does the ABC get their ‘ALP have questions to answer about dual citizenship’ – from the Smear.

    And to round things out, a featured opinion piece from Tony Abbott saying ‘Why I’m voting No”

    Buy the paper.

  21. Briefly,
    Yep, Jensen is confused, as is any argument againsed any equality.
    As the US Constitution says
    “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all Men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness.”

  22. The right was always very quick to criticize the ABC, for not using the work ‘terror’, when describing events overseas. It nothing new, but I never cease to be amazed by their hypocrisy.

  23. Australia’s biggest coal-fired power stations are permitted to dump toxic pollutants on nearby populations far in excess of overseas counterparts, even those in China, a survey by Environmental Justice Australia found.

    The study of 10 of the largest plants in NSW, Queensland and Victoria shows limits of key pollutants – such as sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and particulates – typically far exceed those in US, European Union and China.

    The Toxic and Terminal report said that 900,000 people live “dangerously close” to power stations, with their pollution well-documented as causing increased levels of asthma, respiratory illnesses and heart disease.

    Prevailing winds meant people living further away were also exposed, with some 87 per cent of Sydney’s sulfur dioxide pollution derived from five coal-fired power stations in the Hunter.

    …Neither Queensland nor Victoria, for instance, impose limits on emissions of mercury, a toxin that accumulates in the environment and harms brain development. In NSW, the limits were 666 times those in the US.

    http://www.theage.com.au/environment/black-hole-pollution-from-coalfired-power-worse-than-overseas-survey-finds-20170813-gxvhce.html

  25. From reading the GG yesterday I can see the formation of a second front by the ME, No campaign.

    The government won’t release the SSM legislation before the survey, leaving open ‘possible doubt’, which the NO campaign will drive a truck through. This of course could be easily solved by the government releasing a sponsored bill, but they will not do this.

    As expected the entire episode is set up to fail.

  27. A developer and Liberal Party donor who gained approval from Victorian Opposition Leader Matthew Guy to build controversial towers in South Yarra almost immediately sold the land to Chinese and Malaysian companies for a massive profit.

    The 2014 approval by Mr Guy, then the planning minister, earned companies owned by South Yarra businessman Michael Yates a $36 million profit.

    Mr Yates donated $25,000 to the Victorian Liberal Party in the financial year ending in 2012 – soon after he says he started negotiating to buy the land.

    Mr Guy’s justification for calling in the proposed towers at 661 Chapel Street was a gifted kids centre for prestigious Melbourne High School that was to be built as part of the project.

    The centre remains unbuilt.

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/developer-and-liberal-party-donor-makes-36m-profit-after-building-approval-from-matthew-guy-20170814-gxvr13.html

  31. Will the falling support for the ‘plebiscite’ be interpreted by politicians as voters not caring about the outcome, rather than dislike of the mechanism?

  32. lizzie

    Mr Guy’s justification for calling in the proposed towers at 661 Chapel Street was a gifted kids centre for prestigious Melbourne High School that was to be built as part of the project.

    The centre remains unbuilt.

    The last sentence says it all.

  33. Don and other eclipse fans: There’s one that goes across Australia and right through the centre of Sydney in July 2028. Save the date!

  34. Good Morning

    Newsradio had Senator X on this morning. He has not heard back from the Greek Government as to his status as citizen.

    Has he taken reasonable steps to avail himself of his status? He certainly has made it clear he does not want to be a Greek Citizen and has taken steps to renounce said citizenship.

    Its going to get interesting as to where this threshold is.

  35. MarkDiStef: Nick Xenophon never got written confirmation he’s not a dual citizen theaustralian.com.au/national-affai… pic.twitter.com/9wEbi0ZJXJ

  36. gt

    Newsradio had Senator X on this morning. He has not heard back from the Greek Government as to his status as citizen.

    Hmmm … any mention of him having and using a Greek passport in the past?

  41. Turnbull has warned he will challenge the citizenship of at least 5 Labor MPs if Labor tries to exploit the crisis.

    Is there any word on who these MPs are, or if they exist? Turnbull obviously lashing out in frustration.

  43. Lizzie

    Pyne named them in the house yesterday.

    Braddon MP Justine Keay.

    Someone Zappia in South Australia

    MP for Calwell

    Someone else….. cant remember

  44. Good Morning Bludgers : )
    One thing I do know about Nick Xenophon, he is a Coalition cat’s paw. I heard the Newsradio interview just now as well, and there he was, giving Barnaby ‘Cuzzy Bro’ Joyce a leave pass to not resign from the Cabinet and remain in parliament! And what was the gormless Greek’s reason? ‘Because no one is as ocker as Barnaby.’

    Pa-thetic!

  45. Did he say citizenship or eligibility ? Given Labor checks 2 generations back I’d expect it would be easier to use the pecuniary interest prong to which the Court applied a broader application in the Day case than has historically been the case.

  47. Turnbull has warned he will challenge the citizenship of at least 5 Labor MPs if Labor tries to exploit the crisis.

    If the ALP process is as thorough as described by zoomster and others here, then won’t that inform what the High Court considers “reasonable steps”? If one party can have a clear process for vetting their candidates, then what excuse does everyone else have?

  49. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. A real bumper edition today!

    Mark Kenny says that Joyce’s Monday morning bombshell has plunged the hapless Turnbull government into yet another self-generated crisis. Once again, he says, damage control has taken precedence over ordinary peoples’ lives. And have a look at his concluding paragraph.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/barnabys-bombshell-plunges-turnbull-government-into-yet-another-crisis-20170814-gxvlnk.html
    The SMH editorial asserts that Turnbull now must act to change section 44 of the constitution.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/citizenship-furore-contributes-nothing-to-australian-politics–the-constitution-must-change-20170814-gxvv4c.html
    Latika Bourke tells us that Brandis reckons ignorance will save Barnaby Joyce. Well I suppose Barnaby IS a special case in that regard!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ignorance-will-save-barnaby-joyce-says-attorneygeneral-george-brandis-20170814-gxw62o.html
    Dennis Shanahan says that Barnaby Joyce will have to step aside at least as a cabinet minister or have the Turnbull government face ongoing parliamentary chaos directed by a determined Labor opposition. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/dennis-shanahan/labor-senses-blood-over-barnaby-joyce-and-goes-in-for-the-kill/news-story/d6a07353544d80868d7d703c0965482d
    Katharine Murphy begins her article with “If you want a tangible marker of a prime minister broiling in a political pressure cooker, look no further than Malcolm Turnbull’s sweeping declaration in question time that Barnaby Joyce is eligible to sit in the parliament and the high court will hold it so.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/14/barnaby-joyce-a-new-zealand-citizen-thats-heart-stopping-territory-for-the-coalition
    Michelle Grattan has her say on the issue.
    https://theconversation.com/new-zealand-claims-barnaby-joyce-as-one-of-its-own-in-new-dramatic-citizenship-turmoil-82463
    In a serious contribution this time Tony Wright has little sympathy for the MPs caught out on citizenship.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/avoidable-blunders-leave-malcolm-turnbulls-government-and-its-waferthin-majority-in-jeopardy-20170814-gxvvmn.html
    Laura Tingle writes that the government has quickly progressed from chaos into crisis. Google.
    /news/politics/from-chaos-to-fullblown-crisis-for-turnbulls-coalition-20170814-gxvvba
    Two of Australia’s leading medical groups have rubbished claims by opponents of same-sex marriage that children are worse off in same-sex families, as “no” campaigners target the so-called “consequences” of any change to the law.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/no-evidence-medical-groups-rubbish-red-herring-claims-about-samesex-parents-20170814-gxvlyl.html
    The latest Essential poll shows that the public mood is quickly turning against the postal survey.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/15/public-mood-turns-against-marriage-equality-postal-vote-poll-shows

  50. ReclaimAnglesea: @Aitch_El @TurnbullMalcolm @Barnaby_Joyce That’s a matter for others, but purporting to state what the Court will find isn’t something I would expect anyone with legal training to do

    ReclaimAnglesea: @mstu1549 @Aitch_El @TurnbullMalcolm @Barnaby_Joyce Providing an advice isn’t an issue. Asserting publicly that this is what the Court WILL decide falls into a very different category however

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