BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

With only one new poll this week, the latest BludgerTrack update yields little to report.

Here’s BludgerTrack, updated with all of one data point from Essential Research. Labor is down a bit on two-party preferred but unchanged on the seat projection, with a loss in New South Wales balanced by a gain in Victoria. And that’s yer lot.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,698 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

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  1. ItzaDream @ #1642 Sunday, August 20th, 2017 – 9:06 pm

    Sometimes prayers are answered

    shellbell @ #1641 Sunday, August 20th, 2017 – 9:04 pm

    If you were near Richo, you would want to be able to see his hands

    hahahahahahahha

    sorry, the lead into that was the beginning of a non-post, which I’d better now post, tho I was hesitant before in lieu of the seriousness of the original circumstances of the topic

    but, in relief

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjQyoD3kGwA

  3. Henry

    Johnny Button, great man that he was, was really a midget.

    Button was a very funny, lively speaker. I attended a couple of lectures/campaign events where he featured. He radiated vitality and seemed to have great intellectual capacity…just as smart as Hawke and Keating…

  6. shellbell
    I gave a 21st speech at a party Ros Kelly attended. She wasn’t exactly working class

    We thought she was all class… 🙂

  7. Links are being disruptive for people? Would everyone prefer it if clicking on a link opened it in a new tab by default?

    Yes! Pinning the tab in Firefox means links automatically open in a new tab, but not so with Chrome for some reason. That would be a great addition AR if you could swing it.

  8. a r,
    I would like to know why the parentID on the “Load more comments” button/link gets randomly/periodically stuffed up.

  12. confessions
    From memory it was Ros Kelly who became embroiled in that whiteboard scandal as sports minister.

    Yes…Costello made a great splash with that…

  19. From memory it was Ros Kelly who became embroiled in that whiteboard scandal as sports minister.

    And I bet there’s a whiteboard in the office of well known Kiwi and Minister for Slush Funds Barnaby.

  21. **It was never a secret.**
    It was to me. I had far better things to do in those days than keep up to date with who married who in federal politics.

  22. And I hate it. If it is someone who is not a believer, then it is rank opportunism; if they are, then it is bringing religion into politics.

    poroti
    @ #1594 Sunday, August 20th, 2017 – 7:15 pm

    Elaugaufein

    It was worse than that . The “Our thoughts and prayers” blah bl;ah blah is now a ritualistic response by pollies and unless they are devout the recitation of it shows the hollowness of their response. Pro forma guff rather than anything genuine.

  24. briefly – there has been no indication from anyone at The Oz that a Newspoll is due tonight. Just uninformed twitter chatter, some of it from nutters. If we don’t get one tonight, maybe tomorrow night. But given Parliament is not sitting, this could one of those times there is a 3 week gap between polls.

  25. briefly @ #1659 Sunday, August 20th, 2017 – 9:16 pm

    Do we actually expect a Newspoll? Or is this just wishful thinking?

    A Newspoll tomorrow night would make sense given (a) it is two weeks since the last (b) it is not a sitting week and (c) it is two weeks to the next resumption of Parliament. Often hard to say though.

    Haven’t seen any chatter from informed suspects tonight.

  27. Simon Katich @ #1671 Sunday, August 20th, 2017 – 9:27 pm

    **It was never a secret.**
    It was to me. I had far better things to do in those days than keep up to date with who married who in federal politics.

    Well I thought she was a bit of a dimwit and didn’t take much notice of her, but just as we are aware of who Gai Brodtmann is married to, so that was well known at the time.

  30. briefly @ #1570 Sunday, August 20th, 2017 – 4:36 pm

    Grimace…

    You mentioned you’d been campaigning on ME. What kind of reaction did you get?

    We did a BBQ at Jess Shaw’s office which was well attended in spite of the weather by the branch Labor people and Senator Pratt, and we decorated the windows of Jess’s office with ME type stuff.

    Jess’s office is at the opposite end of the shopping center which includes Aveley IGA, and on the opposite side of the building to the car park, so the location was generally very low traffic. Getting the attendance we did given the time we had to get the event organised; the poorly trafficked area and the bad weather, the event was very well attended.

    On a personal note, I was disappointed that the event was not attended by someone from the LGBTIQ community, though that may be down to poor organisation on our part. I did feel the event and the knock lacked the energy of an election, though that may have been the weather.

    On the knock, we cut a list of just over 300 and targeted an area of Aveley that was very new and had a relatively high proportion of houses without anyone registered to vote. As you would expect in such an area there were a lot of people not home or the house was vacant, though we probably talked to 20% – 30% of people in the houses (so about normal).

    A lot of people told us they were enrolled correctly, we got a number of petition signatures, a couple of people updated their enrollment and we were well received. There was only one person who said nothing and just shut their door upon seeing us, one who told us he wasn’t interested and one person told us that they didn’t vote and just paid the fine after every election.

    In 2016 the Aveley booth was won by Porter on a 9.06% margin, which was Porter’s best result of the Metropolitan polling day booths. If the attitudes and feelings I came across on the knock are translated to the ballot box at the next election then I would expect Liberal HQ will write the seat off in the same way they did with Swan Hills and West Swan at the recent state election.

    The result here will come down to a numbers game between the rapidly growing urban fringe along the south western and coastal parts of Pearce – being Perth’s north eastern fringe and the far northern sprawl, and; the sparsely populated central and north western parts of the seat.

    If you’re interested I downloaded the booth results and have sorted them by TPP.

  31. Ummm, it’s actually Peter Baldwin, not Bob (who is a Central Coast bagman).

    There are probably many back stories to the 1990 group photo, none more murky than the bashing of Peter Baldwin, allegedly by the thug for hire Tom Domican on instructions alleged from Graham Richardson. Although Richo, deinied this and sued Fairfax succesfully for the unwarranted slur.

    “Baldwin was a member of the New South Wales Legislative Council from 1975 to 1982.[3] In the 1970s he was prominent as a left-wing activist in the Australian Labor Party (ALP), seeking to break the grip over the corrupt right-wing machine that controlled many Labor subdivisions in and near central Sydney. As part of his campaign he uncovered substantial and illegal doctoring of the party’s account books in the Enmore branch of the ALP.

    On 16 July 1980, he was brutally assaulted at his home in the nearby Sydney suburb of Marrickville. Pictures of his battered face dominated the front pages of newspapers around the nation, and led to increased pressure for reform of the party. No one was ever charged with the assault. Subsequently it was alleged that the bashing was undertaken by underworld figure Tom Domican acting on suggestions from the Labor state secretary at the time, Graham Richardson.[4] In March 2007 Richardson won a settlement against Fairfax of A$50,000 for defamation on the basis of this report.[5]

  32. **Mr Shorten’s net satisfaction deteriorated from minus 15 points two weeks ago to minus 20 points today.**
    Go figure.

  35. “This is the 18th consecutive Newspoll in which the Coalition has trailed Labor in two-party terms, ”

    Bell….tolling……

  37. bemused

    On Muir – that he actually wanted to understand what he was voting on and think it through before deciding how he was going to vote is not a bad thing in a politician.

    And not easy to sway or prepared to do deals it’s said.

  39. NEWSPOLL EXCLUSIVE: Bill Shorten has gained more ground against Malcolm Turnbull in the wake of the furore over the citizenship of three cabinet ministers, with Labor ahead of the Coalition by 54 to 46 per cent in two-party terms in the latest Newspoll.

    Labor has climbed to its strongest primary vote this year with its core support at 38 per cent, up from 36 per cent two weeks ago.

    The latest Newspoll, conducted exclusively for The Australian, shows the government’s primary vote has fallen from 36 to 35 per cent.

    The results come after a fortnight that saw an internal Coalition row over same-sex marriage, the government’s decision to go ahead with a postal plebiscite on the issue, Mr Turnbull’s move to challenge big energy retailers on their prices and the storm over foreign citizenship.

  41. sprocket_
    Ummm, it’s actually Peter Baldwin, not Bob (who is a Central Coast bagman).

    Quite right…What was I thinking!!!

  42. Ros Kelly subsequently partnered (married ?) David Morgan, who was chief exec of Westpac, after previously reaching a senior position at Treasury.
    I suspect Ros retained the Kelly name because her birth family name was one of those unfortunate ones.

  43. Hi a r,
    It’s a PB problem, nothing to do with your stuff.

    It is supposed to pass the post number of the last displayed comment, but seemingly gets corrupted (at random times) so there are time jumps when trying to go back through posts. I figure someone with your skills might figure it out. But replicating the error is difficult because it isn’t consistent. I am assuming the way it is handled browser-side is the problem because clearing the cache fixes it.

  44. briefly @ #1610 Sunday, August 20th, 2017 – 8:38 pm

    sprocket_
    While we wait for the Sword of Damocles (aka NewsPoll), how many names can you pick out from this 1990 group photo of the 4th Hawke Ministry?

    Richardson, Collins, Baldwin, Hand, Bilney, Beazley, Duffy, Kerin, Ray, Bolkus, Crean, Kelly, Cook, Dawkins, Keating, Button, Willis, Fatin, Evans, Howe…and Hayden….

    Neil Blewitt doesn’t seem to have been tagged yet.

  45. The Prime Minister’s net satisfaction rating — the difference between those who are satisfied and those who are dissatisfied with his performance — shrank from negative 12 to negative 20 percentage points, a major setback after he had regained ground in recent weeks.

    Dire netsat.. 🙂

  47. grimace

    I’m not greatly surprised by the feedback from the door knocking, I have to say. I think voters have developed a temporary allergy to politics…been thinking about how best to campaign on ME…thinking that stalls and forums might work better than anything….We will discuss it at our next branch meeting…

    It’d be great to see the booth x booth data… 🙂
    I wonder if there are any signs of a candidate for Pearce yet?

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