BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

With only one new poll this week, the latest BludgerTrack update yields little to report.

Here’s BludgerTrack, updated with all of one data point from Essential Research. Labor is down a bit on two-party preferred but unchanged on the seat projection, with a loss in New South Wales balanced by a gain in Victoria. And that’s yer lot.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,698 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

  1. BiGD

    It still cannot make any sense to confer political rights to the naturalised subject/citizen in S34 and then deprive them of those rights in S44.

    Anyway….here is the record from which the ABC quotes were taken. This can be found on page 409, items [735-737]. Official report of the National Australasian Convention debates, Adelaide, 22nd March to 5th May, 1897

    Clause 44.-Any person-

    I. ‘Who has taken an oath or made a declaration or acknowledgement of allegiance, obedience or adherence to a foreign power, or has done any act whereby he has become a subject or a citizen, or entitled to the rights or privileges of a subject or a citizen of a foreign power ….

    shall be incapable of being chosen or of sitting as a member of the Senate or of the House of Representatives until the disability is removed by the grant of a discharge etc…

    Mr. GORDON – I should like to ask Mr Barton whether there is anything in this point: A number of German fellow colonists may have taken the oath of allegiance to a foreign power, especially those who have served in the ranks in Germany. Would it not be necessary to add after “power;” in line 27, the words “or who has not since been naturalized as provided in clause 30”?

    Mr.GLYNN – You cannot have two allegiances.
    Mr. BARTON – No; a man might have to go out of our Parliament to serve against us.
    Sir GEORGE TURNER – He may be Minister of Defence.

    Mr. CARRUTTHERS.- I would like to put a case to Mr. Barton. It may happen that treaties
    may be in force between, say, England and Japan. There is a treaty almost in operation on the very lines I am citing that will give to a British subject travelling in Japan practically the same rights and privileges as he would enjoy as a citizen of his own country. Surely it is never intended that by a person travelling in another country, who becomes entitled to privileges conferred on him by a treaty between two high powers, he should be disqualified from holding a seat in the Federal Parliament. Our members of Parliament who are hard-worked take their summer trips, and it may be that some of them may come back and find they have lost their seats as a result of this clause.
    Clause read agreed to.

    On its face, any person, whether a British subject or a non-subject, who had assigned their allegiance to a foreign power or had done an act to acquire citizenship of a foreign power would be disqualified from election.

    Gordon’s suggestion would have allowed present or past non-subjects who had made expressions of foreign allegiance to reverse their effect by undergoing naturalisation. This is not quite the same as being barred from serving because of dual nationality. It imposes disqualification even if naturalisation occurs.

    The convention effectively agreed that expressions of foreign allegiance by any person could not be repaired other than by the Parliament. This has an almost penal flavour to it. British subjects would forfeit their some of their political rights and non-subjects would not be able to relieve their impairment even if they naturalised.

  2. Morning all. I just caught up with the news on Fiona Nash. What a cynical move! Finding out she is inelligible on Monday, then waiting till just before the Senate adjourns on Thursday to announce it. So there was no time for a vote to refer her case to the HC! Ans she isn’t standing down from Cabinet!! Her case is more clear cut than Canavan, yet she is doing nothing.

    Labor or the Greens should refer her to the HC by any means possible. The cynical way she has handled this makes the Gillard government look virtuous.

  3. From SMH:

    A third Turnbull government minister has been caught up in the dual citizenship crisis that has rocked parliament, with Nationals senator Fiona Nash advising she is a British citizen by descent.

    Just moments before parliament rose for a two-week break, the deputy Nationals leader told the Senate that she had received preliminary advice from the British Home Office on Monday that she had received dual-citizenship at birth through her Scottish-born father.

  4. Trump Just Went Full Blown Racist By Launching Into Passionate Defense Of Confederate Statues

    Donald Trump defended Confederate statues and monuments on Thursday morning, as this president made it clear exactly where he stands on race in America.

    Donald J. Trump
    ✔ ‎@realDonaldTrump

    Sad to see the history and culture of our great country being ripped apart with the removal of our beautiful statues and monuments.

    Trump’s presidency is sinking fast, and as he goes down, this president has decided to cling to his racist base until the very end.

  5. Republicans Fully Embrace Racism As 67% Support Trump’s Response To Charlottesville

    A new CBS News Poll has found that more than two-thirds of Republicans support Trump’s Charlottesville response where he defended white supremacists and Nazis.

    The former Party of Lincoln has fully embraced Trump, and with him, they have put out the welcome mat for racists, Nazis, and white supremacists.

  6. Steve Bannon Admits That North Korea Outsmarted Trump By Calling His Bluff

    Trump White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon admitted that Trump was bluffing on North Korea. The White House doesn’t have a military strategy for North Korea, and that the North Koreans called Trump’s bluff.

    Bannon told The American Prospect, “There’s no military solution [to North Korea’s nuclear threats], forget it.

  7. Republicans Call Trump A “vortex of incompetence and destruction” As GOPers Rip Their President

    “He is uniquely incapable of political leadership. If we get tax reform done, it won’t be with his help. It’ll be in spite of him and his vortex of incompetence and destruction,” a Republican aide said of President Trump.

    His own party doesn’t respect him, eight months in.

  8. Dan Rather: Trump’s pro-Confederate rants are glorifying ‘the greatest band of traitors’ in US history

    “In another Twitter rant this morning, Mr. Trump has tripled down, quadrupled down (haven’t we lost count by now) on his morally bankrupt false equivalence between not only Nazis, anti-Semites, other racists, and the counter-protesters,” he wrote. “But he’s now equating the greatest band of traitors in American history with our Founding Fathers.”

  9. Longtime Trump business partner ‘told family he knows he and POTUS are going to prison’: report

    Felix Sater, one of Donald Trump’s shadiest former business partners, is reportedly preparing for prison time — and he says the president will be joining him behind bars

    Sater hinted in an interview earlier this month that he may be cooperating with both Mueller’s investigation and congressional probes of Trump. “In about the next 30 to 35 days, I will be the most colourful character you have ever talked about,” Sater told New York Magazine.

  10. David Letterman Snaps, Offers Brutal Advice For How Trump Can Fix His Charlottesville Fail

    Noting that Trump’s presidency has been a deeply misguided “experiment”, Letterman stated that it is now time for Trump to get real and step down from a position he never deserved in the first place. Letterman said:

    It was an experiment. We put an outsider in the office. Well, it hasn’t worked. Just resign.”

  11. Newly Leaked Emails Just Revealed Trump Family Implicated In $350 Million Fraud Investigation

    It’s beginning to look like Special Counsel Mueller will catch President Trump and his three eldest children committing the first ever reality TV show assisted financial crime, all collaborating in a $350 million dollar bank fraud related to the Trump SoHo Condominium Hotel.

    First Family participated in a business that was committing bank fraud in a pattern and a practice of illegal conduct which violated the federal racketeering laws known as the RICO Act.

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Waleed Aly sums it up for the Coalition – they have descended from embattled to ridiculous. Quite a demolition job!
    Dennis Shanahan tells us that the government has nothing to gain than more pain. Google.
    Michelle Grattan tells us that the Turnbull government has finally defied fiction.
    Laura Tingle wonders if we are seeing the start of Turnbull’s death spiral. Google.
    Another terror attack by motor vehicle – this time in Barcelona. ABC24 just said that ISIS had claimed responsibility for the attack.
    Mark Kenny writes about an idiot wind that is blowing from a global leadership vacuum.
    Fox News backs Trump. Trump backs Nazis. Awkward.
    A leader of a North Carolina-based Ku Klux Klan group says he’s happy a woman died during violent clashes at white nationalist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, on Saturday. Charming!
    Why a statue of General Robert E Lee troubled so many people.

  13. Section 2 . . .

    Trump is a flat out liar according to the Huffington Post.
    If Israel’s PM has trouble denouncing US neo-nazism, it’s possibly because the far right of both countries support the concept of a secure homeland based on race.
    And now Fiona Nash throws her fascinator into the High Court ring! It is becoming apparent that the Coalition has no robust process for confirming the citizenship of its candidates. On the other hand Labor seems to have reason to be confident.
    The Labor staffer responsible for inquiring into the citizenship status of Barnaby Joyce ought to be lauded, because parliamentary integrity has been advanced.,10622
    Meanwhile the Libs in South Australia have their own problems with an MP over alleged theft. Google.
    Not to mention Xenophon’s fledgling SA Best party being rocked by the snap resignation of its only sitting member of Parliament, just seven months from the state election. Google.
    James Massola asks what in the hell is going on with the Nationals. He says that just because you wear an Akubra or live in regional Australia, you still have to do the requisite checks.
    Amy Remeikis writes that Pauline Hanson has triggered a firestorm around religious freedoms, after wearing a burqa into Parliament, a stunt that has united all sides of politics in condemnation.
    David Wroe on Brandis’s speech in which he properly called out a dangerous fool.

  14. Section 3 . . .

    A Muslim’s view of Hanson’s stunt.
    Katharine Murphy looks at Hanson’s motives. She writes that without hesitation or qualification, George Brandis defended tolerance, respect and inclusion. And Pauline Hanson was delighted.
    Tony Wright has his say on the burqa incident.
    A bit more sugar and spice for Turnbull as the controversial Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility, which is mulling a $900m loan for a rail link for Adani’s Carmichael coalmine, may be investigated by the auditor general. The potential inquiry by the auditor general, who has wide-ranging access and information-gathering powers, follows interventions from Wayne Swan and environment groups.
    Potatohead continues with his stellar string of legal losses.
    Inside the mass defection from Trump’s advisory boards.
    The Turnbull government’s same-sex marriage postal survey will be vulnerable to fraud and need to include a “voice” option for people who can’t be reached by mail, the Australian Bureau of Statistics has indicated. The whole process is full of holes!
    Abbott’s sister has demolished his arguments over the SSM survey.
    Tony Abbott is not a dual citizen, but he is a belligerent narcissist who revels in spreading acrimony and dividing the nation, writes Dr Benjamin T. Jones.,10624

  15. Section 4 . . .

    A research fellow from the Australian Catholic University steps out of the thirteenth century to tells us why He’ll be voting NO in the discredited survey. All of the fallacious argumentation concepts are on display.
    Meanwhile, from the 21st century, Katy Gallagher writes that there are no rational arguments to oppose marriage equality.
    Harold Mitchell says that the survey doesn’t pass the pub test.
    Wayne Swan has thrown down the gauntlet to Australia’s remaining neo-liberals, by declaring that trickle-down economics had been thoroughly discredited by the global financial crisis.
    How Nick Xenophon torpedoed the media reform deal the government was trying to stitch up with PHON.
    Quentin Dempster on how the ABC and SBS have become the pawns in the government’s media power play.
    Alan Austin writes that Australian wage earners seem to be singled out in the developed world for exclusion from the benefits of the current global economic boom.
    Relations between two Sydney councils have become tense, with one sending another a bill for $22 million it demanded be paid in seven days, as the state government’s plans to abandon council mergers threatens to set off some complicated financial disentanglements. Poor Gladys!
    Just to add to Gladys’s woes the $16 billion privatisation of electricity company Ausgrid will be examined by the NSW Auditor-General amid questions about the “unsolicited proposals” process used by the successful bidder.

  16. Section 5 . . .

    The Government is more concerned about what men and women do with each other in their bedrooms to be bothered about the cost of living, writes Frank O’Shea.,10623
    Passenger demand for trains in Sydney has risen by almost 20 per cent on some lines in just a year, new figures show, underscoring the strain on the city’s rail network. where will it end?
    Jeremy Corbyn has urged May to broaden the terms of reference for the Grenfell Tower inquiry.
    Have a look at this sheriff from an Ohio county. That country has got problems. Big problems.

  17. Section 7 . . . Cartoon Corner Part 2

    Mark David with an increasingly injured Turnbull.
    David Pope takes us down the rabbit hole.
    Broelman and the Anzac spirit.
    Paul Zanetti takes us out bush with Barnaby.
    From the Washington Post.
    David Rowe – Stupid is the New Black.
    Matt Golding with the tonsorial standoff.
    Sean Leahy has Hanson worked out.
    And he summarises the problems with the media.
    Alan Moir gives us poor Barnaby.
    Andrew Dyson and Trump’s fence sitting.
    Mark Knight takes us into the senate chamber.
    Jon Kudelka with Turnbull’s nightmares.

  18. This may have been pointed out; what I read on pollbludger is now a lucky dip.

    If you follow a link you come back to the page without the new comments and without the “more” posts; that is you go back in time.

    They solution is to cut the link and follow on a new tab.

    If you have done new comments and not more you can reload the page and navigate to where you were. If that involves using more you have opened up a world of pain if you follow another link.

  19. Good Morning Bludgers : )

    This may have been pointed out; what I read on pollbludger is now a lucky dip.

    I tend to agree with frednk. For those of us who are time poor, and I know I am since I became a candidate, it has become headache-inducing trying to keep up to speed with the new layout of PB. It’s like you have to develop a new form of speed-reading and speed-scrolling. BK’s links go up and they don’t remain on page 1, for example, in perpetuity, so that you can keep going back to pick out things that you want to read, they just disappear into the distance very rapidly after they are put up, and so I am finding that what I have to do now is quickly read through the precis and open new tabs for all the ones I am interested in and then try and get them read asap so I can get back to the conversation about the issues with others.

    Nevertheless these conversations also seem to disappear into the ether very quickly, and, as I said, it is all becoming very headache-inducing.

    Rant over. Not that anyone will have time to read it and reflect upon it because it will just disappear quickly like everything else!

  20. Here’s a Letter to the Editor that says it all for me:

    How appalled would Pauline Hanson’s righteous-right supporters be if Dr Anne Aly, a Muslim, walked to her place in the House of Representatives wearing a nun’s habit? And what does it say for the Senate government members, none of whom, unlike the Labor Opposition and Greens, gave Senator Brandis a much-merited standing ovation for his forthright condemnation of Hanson’s completely un-Australian actions?

    Eric Hunter Cook ACT

  21. Interesting observation this morning from constitutional academic on ABC re. section 65 of the constitution- there is a potential three month ‘countback’ and legal challenge for any actions/legislation enacted under a minister whose citizenship is in doubt, if they are subsequently found to be ineligible under section 44.

  22. It’s not just the ’employed’ help who are withdrawing from support for Trump but most of his family seem to have gone to ground.

    (CNN) Sequestered on a brief holiday with her husband Jared Kushner in Vermont, Ivanka Trump, President Donald Trump’s eldest daughter — one of his senior advisers and the closest member of his family who is Jewish — has yet to comment on the events of her father’s Tuesday afternoon press conference.

    In the wake of the President’s remarks that he believes white supremacists and neo-Nazis are held in equal comparison to the so-called “alt-left” protesters who clashed in Charlottesville, Virginia, over the weekend, Ivanka Trump’s silence, 24 hours later, has raised questions about her engagement in the major national controversy, or lack thereof.

    Trump and Pence only had a small number of candidates lined up to appoint to the positions they required to take over the Administration and many of those that did not need to appear in front of Congressional committees have dropped out since leaving the positions, presumably with Obama nominees still in place or vacant.

    If Bannon was to go and Tillerson or Kelly were sacked or resigned it’s hard to see this administration being even the equivalent of a ‘dead duck’ administration.

    The order of succession is –

    * VP – Pence
    * Speaker of the House – Ryan
    * Pres of the Senate – Hatch
    * Sec of State – Tillerson
    * Sec ot the Treasury – Mnunchin
    * Sec of Defense – Mattis
    * AG – Sessions
    * Sec of the Interior – Zinke
    * Sec of Agriculture – Perdue
    * Sec of Commerce – Ross

    The succession list is very much based on a functioning President’s death or becoming incapable of undertaking the role of president BUT with a functioning administration in place.

    Pence, of course, was responsible for having the incoming administration organised but seemed to have only a handful of people committed and ready to go. That he failed at that is obvious.

    The next two, Ryan and Hatch, are like Pence standard ‘cookie cutter’ Republican Party members and few of the policies they would implement would have much in common with what was voted for at the election.

    It’s hard to see how this looming crisis could be dealt with in any way that has been anticipated or, indeed, lawful.

  23. Hear, hear, C@.

    I’ve persevered on the assumption that I’d ‘get used to it’ but it still seems to me a vastly poorer layout than the traditional one. Not being able to follow discussions for more than a few posts means that I often don’t bother to contribute to them.

    When I do, I find myself having to repeat the same points over and over again because you can’t tell someone to scroll back to page X or assume that they’ve already read them. It gets very Groundhog Dayish to log in and find someone asking what Labor’s screening processes are!

  24. zoomster,
    I think that the solution lies in getting back a traditional page layout again. Going backwards, where ‘page 1’ becomes page 1,2 3,4, etc etc is just doing my head in and too hard to get my head around successfully!

    As you say, you just can’t refer someone back to an answer you gave previously because the damn page numbers keep changing!


  25. Trump reportedly furious: ‘That f*cking Steve Bannon’ is ‘taking credit for my election’

    In a recent discussion about the book Devil’s Bargain by Joshua Green, the president told a confidant his chief White House counselor claims responsibility for his electoral win last November.

    “That fucking Steve Bannon taking credit for my election,” Trump lamented, according to a source who spoke with Carrasquillo.

    “The president is not happy with the Joshua Green book,” a source told BuzzFeed. “Every other page is a love letter to Steve Bannon.”

  26. I have found the complete solution to the new layout is to use C+ on my desktop, especially if I need to ferret around to find something.

    On the phone and tablet I don’t get that luxury (*because C+ doesn’t work there), but at least I can keep up with the latest news.

    I can’t see any downsides to C+ in terms of security as all it is doing, as I understand it, is to make standard calls to PB and formatting the results.

  27. I gather that Pauline thought that she was making a plea for “freedom from the confines of the burka” when she threw it off in the Senate. I’m sure she thought she was on a winner.

  28. Listening to Malcolm Roberts on Lateline last night (kudos to Emma for trying to teach him about the rules of ABC reporting), I wondered if he has ever admitted to being wrong about anything in his life. He just shouts over the interviewer.

  29. C@t,

    You can use the (unlabelled) link button to the right on the “Share” button to cut ‘n’ paste a link back to the message.

  30. Trump already on the Twits about the Barcelona terrorist attack. For all the wrong reasons:

    CNN’s Jake Tapper on Thursday blasted Donald Trump for reviving a fake story about an American general killing Muslim prisoners with bullets dipped in pig’s blood, noting “the President of the United States just suggested we should study a lie” when considering how to respond to terrorists.

    In an apparent attempt to generate support for similar treatment of terrorists in the United States, Trump on Thursday responded to a deadly attack in Barcelona that killed at least 13 people by suggesting we “study what General Pershing of the United States did to terrorists when caught.”

  31. Wise words from Senator Patterson 🙂

    James Paterson‏Verified account
    Amazed at suggestions we should allow foreign nationals to serve in the Australian Parliament because two Green MPs can’t manage basic admin
    4:36 am – 18 Jul 2017

  32. I was lunching in a pub in the shadow of Canterbury Cathedral with a friend from Blighty when to my shock, I looked up, & there on the telly, was the nutter herself Pauline Hanson.

    Horribly embarrassed to be an Australian at that moment.

  33. BK

    Lots of the MSM Press articles saying the Coalition in complete chaos with the background flavour being it’s a world wide trend …

    Some still finding excuses for Turnbull it seems.

  34. You can just imagine the conversation:

    Prospective National Party Candidate: “How do I answer this question on the nomination form about being qualified to be a candidate?”

    Answer: “Nah . That’s all city bullshit. Just tick the box.”

  35. ajm

    The National’s tactics of having Fiona Nash wait until the last minutes yesterday to ‘announce’, what they have known since Monday, thereby avoiding a referral to the High Court along with the other ‘job lot’ is below contempt.

  36. CTar1 @ #44 Friday, August 18th, 2017 – 8:32 am


    The National’s tactics of having Fiona Nash wait until the last minutes yesterday to ‘announce’, what they have known since Monday, thereby avoiding a referral to the High Court along with the other ‘job lot’ is below contempt.

    AND they spent the whole week implying that Labor MPs had multiple cases to answer!

  37. ajm @ #41 Friday, August 18th, 2017 – 8:23 am

    You can just imagine the conversation:

    Prospective National Party Candidate: “How do I answer this question on the nomination form about being qualified to be a candidate?”

    Answer: “Nah . That’s all city bullshit. Just tick the box.”

    No, I think what it shows is that the Nationals only care about getting people onto their team who will be good value. They don’t care about the particulars.

  38. If someone is ineligible to sit in Parliament, surely any legislation that relied on their vote (now multiple votes) is null and void?

  39. As a dual citizen myself, I find it quite inconceivable that someone like Nash would be unaware that the fact that her father was born in the UK may make her a UK citizen.

    It is so bloody obvious !

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