BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

With only one new poll this week, the latest BludgerTrack update yields little to report.

Here’s BludgerTrack, updated with all of one data point from Essential Research. Labor is down a bit on two-party preferred but unchanged on the seat projection, with a loss in New South Wales balanced by a gain in Victoria. And that’s yer lot.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,698 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

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  4. TPOF

    The article makes it very clear that the intention WAS to exclude dual nationals –

    ‘Patrick McMahon Glynn: “You cannot have two allegiances.”
    Sir Edmund Barton: “No; a man might have to go out of our parliament to serve against us.”
    Sir George Turner: “He may be minister of defence.”‘

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-17/dual-citizenship-the-moment-we-could-have-avoided-this-mess/8807534

    What has happened since, of course, is that British and Australian citizenship has become two different things.

    However, that also didn’t happen in a vacuum; if Australia is an independent nation with its own citizens, then being a citizen of the UK or NZ raises exactly the issues (two allegiances) the ‘founding fathers’ were concerned about.

  5. C@

    the Nationals only care about getting people onto their team who will be good value.

    For who and what?

    The receivers of local pork barreling ?

  7. Lizzie

    The HC court rule there is a difference between being inellgible intentionally and unintentionally. They wont revist votes from the inelligible member.

    However today someone mentioned there may be a three month period of review that can be/is open to challenge.

  8. I am appalled but not shocked at this revelation:

    WikiLeaks refused 68 GB of incriminating intel on Kremlin while focusing on Hillary Clinton: report

    According to a report by Foreign Policy, the organization declined leaked intelligence about the Russian government last summer while in the midst of their Kremlin-sourced leaks about Hillary Clinton.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/08/wikileaks-refused-68-gb-of-incriminating-intel-on-kremlin-while-focusing-on-hillary-clinton-report/

  9. Thanks, Adrian. I’ll check it out.

    Lizzie, if the HC knocks MPs out of parliament, I imagine their next case will be challenges to the legislation that relied on their votes.

  12. It was Nash’s father, not grandfather. From The Guardian:

    ‘The dual citizenship by descent is triggered by her Scottish-born father. Nash, who was born in Sydney in 1965, said that her father was born in Scotland in 1927 and she had little contact with him after her parents divorced when she was aged eight.

    “My parents always told me I was not a dual citizen,” Nash told the Senate. “My understanding was that to be a dual British citizen I would need to apply for it.”

    Nash said she had sought advice on Monday from the UK Home Office and was advised by a caseworker that “on the basis of the limited facts I had provided I was a British citizen by descent, through my Scottish-born father”.’

  13. One advantage of Nash announcing her s.44 problem so late is that it makes the news just as Newspoll starts polling. It’s even on the front page of the Oz dead tree edition “Brit Nash Deepens PM’s Pain”.

  14. Cat @ 7:54AM As you say, you just can’t refer someone back to an answer you gave previously because the damn page numbers keep changing!

    Best to use the time stamp for references to other comments. Comment numbers would be good. I get those in Windows 10 but not on mobile devices, but time stamps do seem to be available on all devices.

  15. Parents have a lot to answer for….

    But seriously, does the preamble to the candidate nomination form say “check with your parents” or does it say “seek legal advice”?

  18. Steve777

    That would be jolly if whole slabs of posts didn’t just disappear. I’ve had at least two occasions where I’ve logged on and found that several hours of posts are missing.

  19. lizzie, I read once that in the 18th century a guy turned up and voted in the House of Commons for 25 years before anyone rumbled to the fact that he had never been an elected member.

  20. The article makes it very clear that the intention WAS to exclude dual nationals –

    ‘Patrick McMahon Glynn: “You cannot have two allegiances.”
    Sir Edmund Barton: “No; a man might have to go out of our parliament to serve against us.”
    Sir George Turner: “He may be minister of defence.”‘

    It is only recently that dual nationality has been allowed, and even then it often happens because a nation simply ignores another nation’s citizenship laws.

    In Sykes (or one of the cases), the candidates argued that when they were naturalised they took an oath of citizenship renouncing all other allegiances (The oath has since removed this clause). But the HC ruled that that in itself wasn’t enough.

  21. Steve777

    The ‘original’ PB was revamped for the sake of (I think) iPad users, which started all our troubles. Now it is using a different structure which is, again, very frustrating for mobiles. I don’t know what the solution is, but I’m not an IT expert.

  25. BK I hardly ever use a computer for PB, it’s often for when I’m on the go and have a couple of minutes spare. It needs to be functional across platforms

  26. Steve777 @ #64 Friday, August 18th, 2017 – 8:46 am

    Cat @ 7:54AM As you say, you just can’t refer someone back to an answer you gave previously because the damn page numbers keep changing!

    Best to use the time stamp for references to other comments. Comment numbers would be good. I get those in Windows 10 but not on mobile devices, but time stamps do seem to be available on all devices.

    To reply to a numbered post, you also have to trawl back through them to find the one you want.

  27. Congratulations to George Brandis. Attacked by Alan Jones this mornng for George’s answer to Pauline Hanson’s question in the Senate yesterday. Badge of honour to George for giving an honest answer.

  28. mimhoff
    The article makes it very clear that the intention WAS to exclude dual nationals –

    It is only recently that dual nationality has been allowed, and even then it often happens because a nation simply ignores another nation’s citizenship laws.

    This is mistaken. The ABC report is not a full account or analysis of the Proceedings. As to dual subjects/citizenship/nationality….of course it is not new. It certainly existed in the 19th century.

  29. Good comment from the Crooks and Liars link posted earlier:

    A lot of christian conservatives are very polite in person and, thru their churches, tend to be more generous giving time and money to the needy than the average citizen. But the oligarchs have exploited their fears and bigotry to leave them worshiping unrestricted corporatism with a calvanistic work ethic despite receiving ever lower wages from their secretive masters.
    They’re as manipulable as most peasants throughout history being addicted to the best propaganda machine on record.

  32. [lizzie
    Listening to Malcolm Roberts on Lateline last night (kudos to Emma for trying to teach him about the rules of ABC reporting), I wondered if he has ever admitted to being wrong about anything in his life. He just shouts over the interviewer.    ]

    To teach Roberts anything first you must get him to acknowledge that reality exists.

    While I can laud Alberici’s intent, I didn’t think it was a great interview.

    Roberts was expecting and wanting a fight and she gave him exactly that.

    Roberts left the interview relatively unscathed whilst I think Emma would be wishing her for her time again.

  34. Further on NashGate, the fact that Nash (and Cabinet) knew about her in-eligibility on Monday explains the hysterics of Turnbull, Bishop and others on Tuesday, doesn’t it. They were desperate to shift the focus before more of the bad news came out. Stalling till it was too late for the Senate on Thursday was obviously a tactic designed to delay HC resolution of the Nash case till beyond August 24.

    At this point, could the legally elected Coalition MPs still pass a vote in the House? As Julia Gillard might say, whose government is illegitimate now?

    Liberal Party candidate vetting is not looking too flash either:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-17/mount-gambier-mp-troy-bell-resigns-from-liberal-party/8818154

  37. Barney in Go Dau

    Well, yes… Roberts left the interview the same as he came in, Emma was unsatisfied, but at last she made her points to anyone listening.

  39. poroti @ #1175 Friday, August 18th, 2017 – 8:35 am

    BK

    They’ve found an Australian within 100 km of the Barcelona attack ?

    The Australian foreign minister, Julie Bishop, has just given a press conference.

    One Australian women, from New South Wales, is in hospital in a “serious but stable condition”.

    Two other young men from Melbourne had been “directly affected” but had returned to their hotel rooms. She said there were “multiple nationalities” among those killed and injured.

    She urged tourists to stay in their hotel rooms, as the situation was still evolving, and contact consular staff to let them know they were safe.
    As the little black duck over the road summarised –
    Shorter Bananas: “Thank god there were Australians involved. Pity no Australian died.”

  40. A research fellow from the Australian Catholic University steps out of the thirteenth century to tells us why He’ll be voting NO in the discredited survey. All of the fallacious argumentation concepts are on display.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/this-is-why-ill-be-voting-no-to-samesex-marriage-20170817-gxy6np.html

    Marriage only between man and woman for procreation-So a ban on marriages for oldies like fred nile and others.

    Only men and women can have children, gays, lesbians, sperm donors and surrogates want “entitlement” of parenthood despite life choice they made – children should only be conceived by properly married heterosexual couples. Looks like a wistful urge to return to the good old days of bastard children being placed in the loving hands of priests?

    Children require a male and female role model to fully mature and develop – author alludes to his own failings by saying he had an absent father. May be something there in his case. But as above a wistful view for children of single parents to be placed in the loving hands of priests again?

    Long gone are the days when gays and lesbians were ostracised or discriminated against. – After dumping buckets on them in the previous paragraphs concludes with this sentence.

  42. Mal recommends more bollards.
    Please can we have bollards with an Aussie theme? I loved the enhancements done to some in Melbourne.

  45. The problem with bollards is that they exclude all vehicles. How will deliveries be made to restaurants, shops, etc? Maybe removable bollards for late night/early morning deliveries, or some sort of golf buggy type delivery vehicles with speed limiters installed.

  46. AntonBruckner11
    Nash knew there was an issue about citizenship and consulted google. Reasonable inquiries? I think not.

    As many have pointed out she and barnaby are ministers, their decision making can be challenged on the basis of was it a reasonable decision, did the minister take reasonable care and account of the information.

    Did the minister take account of recommendations and advice presented or did the minister give more weight to other information, ie google?

    It was not a hard task to do to confirm citizenship, simply write to the embassy, ask the question. If the embassy writes back and says nup, then you have taken reasonable steps, even if the embassy was wrong as thats the advice from the foreign country.

  48. Likely the lnp had jitters over nash and joyce well before this which would explain their refusal to resign.

    Barnaby becomes acting pm next month, if barnabay had to step aside it would then fall to nash, if nash steps aside then who is acting pm. Would have been a comedy show as lnp ran around trying to find a acting pm.

  49. Makes my point?

    Sally McManus‏Verified account @sallymcmanus · 13h13 hours ago

    Fiona Nash has known about her citizenship issue since Monday. Yet she has voted in the Senate where the numbers are tight ALL WEEK

  50. Turnbull again making the point that the HC will support his view. Presumably using that as an excuse for the Nats leaders remaining in HoR.

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