Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Essential Research records support for a postal survey on same-sex marriage dissolving on contact with reality, while voting intention remains unchanged.

The Guardian reports that Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average has Labor’s two-party preferred lead unchanged at 54-46, with the Coalition (37%), Labor (39%), the Greens (9%) and One Nation (8%) all unchanged on the primary vote. The poll also records 39% approval of the postal ballot on same-sex marriage with 47% opposed, just one week after the same question elicited respective results of 43% and 38%.

The survey also found that 33% considered the top marginal tax rate of 47% too high, compared with 12% for too low and 39% for about right. A suite of questions on the Turnbull government’s handling of various policy areas recorded negative results for “the implementation of the national broadband network, schools and universities funding, addressing climate change, funding health and hospitals, implementing a fair tax system and ensuring reliable and affordable energy”, with the only positive result apparently being for “protecting Australians from terrorism”. Only 15% reported satisfaction with the government’s policies and progress in implementing them, with a further 28% reckoning only that it hadn’t made enough progress, and 41% expressing disapproval for its policies and decisions.

Other questions related to respondents’ financial situations, with 53% reporting that their income had fallen behind the rising cost of living, 25% saying it had remained even, and only 15% saying it had improved.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,292 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. briefly @ #2045 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 5:52 pm

    Dual nationality is no barrier to election in the United States. Nor was it a barrier in this country until the erroneous findings in Sykes.

    Now you are just being silly. The HC decision in Sykes was clearly in keeping with the original intent of the constitution. You can certainly object to the constitution, but stop pretending that Sykes changed it. It did not – it merely clarified and simplified its interpretation.

  2. Barney that’s a brilliant article, not the least for the fact that is eloquently says something I keep trying to express

    People deserve respect, not ideas. Bad ideas are still bad ideas even if earnestly held by nice people.

  3. It stops short of saying something else. That when ideas become laws and public policy, its not just a debate any more. Its a form of coercion of those who don’t share your ideas. I’ve been around long enough to see just how religious authority has constantly tried to harm gay people. To punish them. To emphasise they are lesser people. And marriage equality isn’t just about equality in law, its about ending the constant disrespect.

  4. bemused
    I did say I’m not sure whether we can get it to zero, but we can certainly do a lot better. I didn’t get any specific training in suicide prevention in my undergraduate degree. It wasn’t till many years later that specific training was developed and effort put into the whole public mental health work force being trained.
    I was quite pessimistic when I retired about the public mental health system, as I think I’ve said to you before as I think it was reorganised into a schemozzle. I question how consistent training, particularly for new graduates can be provided in such a mess.
    I guess I also wonder about being able to achieve zero because mental health clinicians are human and humans don’t always get it right .
    I had only three people suicide over the course of my work over thirty years, for whom I was the primary clinician and I can assure you each of them affected me deeply. The chap with schizophrenia I described earlier was one of them, and he suffered so much I understood why he did it. Nothing we could do at the time could alleviate the misery he endured. There are still limits to knowledge and practice in mental health, though we have made progress.

  5. The Australian‏Verified account @australian · 7m7 minutes ago

    ABC introduce “LGBTQI helpline” to help staff members who are traumatised by the same-sex marriage debate

  6. briefly

    If you are advocating a referendum go for it but I think that a proposition would be hard to get up.

    Voters would consider that the requirement to only an Aust citizen as superior rather than discrimination.

    No judgement by the HC will change what is written in the Constitution.

  7. So what if someone is so insulted by Hanson’s little stunt that they commit some stupid terrorist act. This is just the type of incendiary stunt that can set of extremists so Hanson should be condemned as a security threat. The Libs are always banging on about it, get Dutton onto her.

  8. briefly,

    USA, you need to renounce any citizenship rights you hold to become a citizen and you can not become President.

    Ever country has there own way of dealing with the issues for all your examples I’m sure there are examples where our form is favoured.

    In the end it’s irrelevant what others do.

  9. 44i was clearly written to disqualify holders of multiple nationalities from the Commonwealth Parliament. The requirement (in section 34ii) that, until Parliament otherwise provided, being a Subject of the Queen was a requirement shows that the domestic nationality requirement was separate from the foreign nationality ban. It was obviously intended to keep non-British Empire nationals (and possibly even British Empire protectorate nationals) out of Parliament. This, at the time of drafting, meant Germans, Chinese, Japanese, Russians, Americans, Italians, Austro-Hungarians, etc. Non-British nationalities made up a much smaller proportion of Australia`s population than non-Australian nationalities or even non-Commonwealth nationalities do today.

    Disclaimer, I am not a lawyer.

  10. ABC News Adelaide‏Verified account
    @abcnewsAdelaide

    #BREAKING: SA MP John Darley quits Nick Xenophon Team, effective immediately, and will remain in Parliament as an independent

  11. Looks like the ABS is taking the chance to experiment –

    The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has responded to concerns many Australians may not receive a ballot in the mail before votes are due back on November 7.

    Deputy statistician Jonathan Palmer said there were a number of options under consideration to ensure everyone who wanted to vote, could do so.

    “It could be an online form, it could be a touch-tone telephone solution, it could be an SMS text message but we are still working out what could be the best option for a paperless return,” Mr Palmer said.

    The ABS will clarify what form a paperless vote will take early next week.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-17/abs-confirms-paperless-option-same-sex-marriage-postal-survey/8817516

  12. Neither Xenophon nor Darley will say why the latter quit but there has obviously been an internal bust up.

    Nick Xenophon MP John Darley has quit the party but will remain in the South Australian parliament as an independent.

    Mr Darley announced his decision on Thursday but declined to detail the reasons for the split.

    “There are many things I could say as to why I have resigned,” he said in a statement.
    “However, it is not my place to speak publicly about internal party matters.”

    But Senator Xenophon said Mr Darley’s resignation had averted his expulsion on Friday because of breaches to party rules.

    The senator did not reveal what the breaches were.

    “I wish him well,” he said in a tweet.

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/xenophon-mp-quits-the-party-in-sa/news-story/5c686ad3fd9a93bcd0fcbb3b06b358ea

  13. The controversial Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility, which is mulling a $900m loan for a rail link for Adani’s Carmichael coalmine, may be investigated by the auditor general.

    The potential inquiry by the auditor general, who has wide-ranging access and information-gathering powers, follows interventions from a former federal treasurer and environment groups.

    In March, Wayne Swan wrote to the auditor general requesting that he urgently begin an investigation into the “unacceptable fiscal risks” Naif posed to the commonwealth.

    Swan warned that Naif risked “misallocating billions of dollars of public money,” specifically raising the secrecy around Naif’s consideration of a loan to Adani, its lack of adequate staffing and the pressure imposed on the organisation by “a domineering minister”.

    “I am concerned the real risk of maladministration may lead to significant losses to the commonwealth in the future and the misallocation of resources due to political pressure and poor governance, resulting in funds failing to be allocated to more worthy purposes,” Swan said in his letter.

    The auditor general replied last month, informing Swan that he had considered the request, and decided to include an audit of Naif among the potential performance audits to be completed in the 2017-18 work program.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/17/northern-australia-infrastructure-facility-naif-may-be-investigated-by-auditor-general

  14. Senator Sinodinos, who was chief of staff to Mr Howard in 2001 when the then-prime minister issued the directive, said Senator Hanson’s party had “evolved” and was “a lot more sophisticated” now. – 12 February 2017

  15. [sonar
    Re Hanson and her stunt today. Am I the only one who wishes QLD would secede and leave the rest of us alone ?]

    There must be some way to establish that she is part alien?

  16. bemused
    BTW, if you respond to my last post, it may be a little while till I catch up as one of our little grand daughters has been admitted to hospital with pneumonia and we need to go and look after the other one.

  17. Good evening all,

    Another government senator may be in some trouble. The family construction company of LNP senator Barry O’ Sullivan is a sub contractor on a federal government funded Queensland project, the Toowoomba Bi pass and , as such the senator may be caught under s44 just as Bob Day found himself.

    It will be interesting to see if this has legs and where it leads.

    Cheers.

  18. Gareth

    Senator Sinodinos, who was chief of staff to Mr Howard in 2001 when the then-prime minister issued the directive, said Senator Hanson’s party had “evolved” and was “a lot more sophisticated” now.

    Arfur, if asked, would say he doesn’t recall saying that or that there’s more than one of them (‘evolved’) and he saw one of the new ones use a knife and fork (‘sophisticated’).

  19. Like it or not this is a matter for the C’wlth Govt:

    “ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr has copped a backlash over his move to contribute “significant” Government resources to campaigning for a Yes vote in the upcoming same-sex marriage postal survey.

    Mr Barr has secured the support of the ACT Legislative Assembly to use taxpayers’ money to actively campaign in favour of same-sex marriage.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-08-17/act-chief-minister-pushes-publicly-funded-same-sex-yes-campaign/8816478

    The ACT Govt should not be committing tax payer funds to campaign on this.

  20. Tingle –

    The Prime Minister told us on Monday that “the Deputy Prime Minister is qualified to sit in this house and the High Court will so hold”.

    It was a big statement from Turnbull, based on a big strategic call.

    In the wake of Joyce’s bombshell, there may have been ludicrous claims made this week in Federal Parliament – involving treachery and conspiracies with a foreign power (that’s New Zealand we are talking about here) – and utterly offensive and appalling stunts like the ones involving a burqa in the Senate on Thursday.

    But the need for the government to make a decision on Joyce, and then its decision to stand by him – and in so doing go against its own previous statements on the citizenship question – is likely to prove the point from which history may come to judge that it entered into a death spiral from which it could not recover, if every single thing doesn’t now go the Coalition’s way.

    The government may have been failing to overcome its disappointment deficit with the electorate. But this week’s events have put it in the territory of bedlam and reputational damage from which it is difficult to recover. So much will depend on how the High Court case now plays out, and how long it takes.

    And the problem is that most people familiar with the business of advice from solicitors-general over the years find it difficult to believe that any solicitor-general would have delivered such definitive advice that “the High Court will so hold” that Joyce is safe.

    A government in full panic mode

    The bizarre spectacle of a government in full panic mode, throwing out foreign conspiracy theories, dirt about Bill Shorten, attacking local councils about Australia Day, and rebirthing budget bills in a desperate attempt to regain its political footing, has tended to overshadow the questions of how the complexities of the citizenship issue could now play out.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/opinion/its-off-to-the-high-court-or-arguing-against-yourself-after-a-week-of-low-low-farce-20170817-gxyicu#ixzz4q06Voey6
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  21. TallebudgeraLurker…..said with tongue fimly in cheek….!
    According to polling she is going to have a very big say in who is the next QLD govt…..

  22. Barry O’sullivan, Barry, oh Barry.

    Your family comapnies have contracts with the Commonwealth? Too bad, so sad.

    Ineligible to sit in the Senate.

  23. I am entirely happy to have the government donate any or all of my tax dollars to the ‘Yes’ campaign.

    But what happened with the court ruling about the governments doublesecret Libnats agreement?

  24. Bannon’s ideas on ‘nationalism’ relate to “US First” and isolation from outside influence rather than race and the more usual ‘nationalism’ chant.

    In his interview with the US magazine, Mr Bannon was asked if there was a connection between the economic nationalism that he supports and the white nationalism seen in Charlottesville.

    “Ethno-nationalism – it’s losers,” he said. “It’s a fringe element. I think the media plays it up too much, and we gotta help crush it, you know, uh, help crush it more.”
    “These guys are a collection of clowns,” he added.

    Mr Bannon has distanced himself from “ethno-nationalism” before, telling the New York Times his interest in nationalism stems from wanting to curb the negative effects of globalisation.

    ]

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-40958329

  25. sprocket_

    Barry O’sullivan, Barry, oh Barry.

    Your family comapnies have contracts with the Commonwealth? Too bad, so sad.

    Ineligible to sit in the Senate.

    Oh please tell me it’s true.

  26. A R
    According to the article, Labor MP has lost their bid to view secret documents concluding it didn’t have the power to allow Mr Fitzgibbon’s lawyers to inspect the agreement. Mr Fitzgibbon was denied access to the agreement in 2015 on the basis it was a private document, the court heard. However, the Tribunal will consider whether or not it is in fact an official document.
    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/labor-loses-an-appeal-over-coalition-deal/news-story/9108d5083ab92a52d63941f2af104e8b

  27. Maybe they can just do in Canberra what happens sometimes with local government councils that go off the rails .. appoint an administrator for a year or two?

  28. Fiona Nash come on down!

    Isn’t it time for Malcolm to give everyone a fresh start by calling a new election?

    What an absolutely rinky-dink party the Nationals are

  29. [sprocket_
    Nash is a dual citizen, just announced it to the Senate.
    The entire Nationals leadership are foreigners!]

    Help, we’ve been invaded by the lizard men!

  30. [Isn’t it time for Malcolm to give everyone a fresh start by calling a new election?]

    I’m hoping the HC has the power to order another DD asap.

  31. mikehilliard @ #2086 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 7:03 pm

    sprocket_

    Barry O’sullivan, Barry, oh Barry.

    Your family comapnies have contracts with the Commonwealth? Too bad, so sad.

    Ineligible to sit in the Senate.

    Oh please tell me it’s true.

    This is a joint Commonwealth – State funded project being delivered by TMR. Contractor is Nexus Infrastructure Pty Ltd, a consortium of companies, none of whom is Newlands. Newlands would be a subcontractor. Nothing to get excited about.

  32. ab

    What an absolutely rinky-dink party the Nationals are

    Maybe what unites them is that they are not good a reading what they are signing.

    This was a feature of the JWH travel rorts caper.

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