Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Essential Research records support for a postal survey on same-sex marriage dissolving on contact with reality, while voting intention remains unchanged.

The Guardian reports that Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average has Labor’s two-party preferred lead unchanged at 54-46, with the Coalition (37%), Labor (39%), the Greens (9%) and One Nation (8%) all unchanged on the primary vote. The poll also records 39% approval of the postal ballot on same-sex marriage with 47% opposed, just one week after the same question elicited respective results of 43% and 38%.

The survey also found that 33% considered the top marginal tax rate of 47% too high, compared with 12% for too low and 39% for about right. A suite of questions on the Turnbull government’s handling of various policy areas recorded negative results for “the implementation of the national broadband network, schools and universities funding, addressing climate change, funding health and hospitals, implementing a fair tax system and ensuring reliable and affordable energy”, with the only positive result apparently being for “protecting Australians from terrorism”. Only 15% reported satisfaction with the government’s policies and progress in implementing them, with a further 28% reckoning only that it hadn’t made enough progress, and 41% expressing disapproval for its policies and decisions.

Other questions related to respondents’ financial situations, with 53% reporting that their income had fallen behind the rising cost of living, 25% saying it had remained even, and only 15% saying it had improved.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,292 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  6. “Both Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull promised “Stable Government”, Abbott said it back in 2013.

    That was a non-core promise.

  7. [cud chewer
    right click save image address    ]

    Thanks Cud.
    I know that one.

    What I wanted was to post an actual screen shot from my computer or mobile.

  8. Darn

    Bolt calling for the Governor General to intervene in the Section 44 mess.

    Bolt an idiot.

    He doesn’t seem to get as much publicity for his crap as he used to.

  9. Using the Lang Dismissal precedent, there is vice-regal reserve power to sack a government breaking the law. Having illegal ministers could potentially be such a reason but the 3 months allowable without being an MP makes this harder.

  10. It would be good if Ch 7 commissioned one of their Thursday ReachTel polls tonight and gave the results on the 6pm news tomorrow.

  15. A little while ago someone asked what the red things in Turnbull’s hat in David Pope’s cartoon wer. I tweeted Pope and got this reply.
    David Pope‏ @davpope 28s28 seconds ago
    Replying to @WEDeming
    A nation’s-worth of red pills

  17. BK

    Is anyone having problems synchronising emails on BigPond?
    ***********************************************
    Yes, all day.

  18. “Bolt calling for the Governor General to intervene in the Section 44 mess.”
    Someone has to step in and restore confidence in our system. I think it should be a retired judge who audits all MPs. A line has to be drawn in the sand.

  21. DIOG – Problem is that a retired judge won’t be much use until we know what the High Court says. I’m with Cory: best way to drain the swamp is to have a new election.

  22. BK

    Re the pills. Google up the movie The Matrix.

    “You take the blue pill, the story ends. You wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill, you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.”

  24. The thing is with all these parliamentarians and dual citizenship, they all know the law and what is required under the law to be in the parliament.

    Are they all so stupid that they don’t understand what giving the correct information on a parliament job application form is.?

    FMD, these people are making laws that govern us.

  25. Government backbencher Barry O’Sullivan may have fallen foul of the constitution because of family business dealings.

    The Queensland senator’s family’s construction company Newlands Civil Construction is subcontracted to work on a federally funded project – the Toowoomba second range crossing.

    The contract, worth $2.5 million, 80 per cent of which comes from Canberra, covers demolition work, sewerage diversion, water mains and site access gates, according to the company’s website.

    There are question marks over whether Senator O’Sullivan is in breach of section 44 of the constitution, which states a member or senator can be disqualified where there is “any direct or indirect pecuniary interest in any agreement with the public service of the Commonwealth”.

    AAP understands Newlands is subcontracted by another company called Nexus which has an agreement with the Queensland state government.

    Senator O’Sullivan denies he “either directly or indirectly, holds a pecuniary interest in any agreement with the public service of the Commonwealth.”

    He insists his interests are published publicly, in their entirety, and methodical effort is taken to ensure these details are updated thoroughly.

    “Importantly, a review by Newlands Civil Construction has proven that it does not hold any agreement with any company or entity that has an agreement with the public service of the Commonwealth,” he said in a statement.

    He pointed the media to his register of interests which was last updated in May.

    On the second page under the section shareholdings in public and private companies, Senator O’Sullivan lists his interest in Jilbridge Pty Ltd which is a subsidiary of O’Sullivan and Son Pty Ltd which is a subsidiary of Newlands Civil Construction Pty Ltd.

    But he insists he does not currently have a direct interest in Newlands.

    Senator O’Sullivan’s son, who is also named Barry, is the managing director of Newlands.

    “The O’Sullivan family remains the controlling shareholders of the group,” his Linkedin profile states.

    “Newlands has grown from a small family operation to an organisation that now employs in excess of 100 staff with additional management oversight of up to 60 independent subcontractors.”

    In April, the High Court found Family First senator Bob Day was ineligible to sit in parliament because he indirectly benefited from the government’s lease arrangement on his Adelaide electorate office.

  26. monica @ #2059 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 6:11 pm

    bemused
    I did say I’m not sure whether we can get it to zero, but we can certainly do a lot better. I didn’t get any specific training in suicide prevention in my undergraduate degree. It wasn’t till many years later that specific training was developed and effort put into the whole public mental health work force being trained.
    I was quite pessimistic when I retired about the public mental health system, as I think I’ve said to you before as I think it was reorganised into a schemozzle. I question how consistent training, particularly for new graduates can be provided in such a mess.
    I guess I also wonder about being able to achieve zero because mental health clinicians are human and humans don’t always get it right .
    I had only three people suicide over the course of my work over thirty years, for whom I was the primary clinician and I can assure you each of them affected me deeply. The chap with schizophrenia I described earlier was one of them, and he suffered so much I understood why he did it. Nothing we could do at the time could alleviate the misery he endured. There are still limits to knowledge and practice in mental health, though we have made progress.

    I have met some in your profession with a severe lack of empathy.

    Part of the failure of the system can be seen on the streets of Melbourne – the homeless mentally ill. And a lot more are in prison.

    I would react the same as you did if I was in charge of a patient who died.

    Do you remember the Politician, Greg Wilton, who suicided in 2000? After his first incident when he was hospitalised, I warned people who were close to him about the perils of a premature discharge and was assured he was in good hands. The next thing I knew, I was hearing on the radio about his death. As I predicted, he was discharged, when obviously unwell, and the inevitable consequence occurred.

    I have never since spoken to those I warned and I am furious about the nongs at the hospital who so stupidly discharged him.

  27. The Governor General in theory has pretty much the same powers as an English Monarch c. 1700. Limitations on the GG’s powers, as with the British Monarch, are mostly Convention.

  28. I know this is advancing. However, if both Nash and O’Sullivan are disqualified , who would end up being elected if they use the previous election principle!

  38. Diogenes @ #2185 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 9:15 pm

    The SA Libs can still lose the next election

    “LIBERAL MP Troy Bell has been charged with allegedly stealing hundreds of thousands of dollars of taxpayers money.”
    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/law-order/mount-gambier-liberal-mp-troy-bell-charged-with-theft-using-false-documents/news-story/777e48862f8d6684d40504dc3ae32335

    I know you are always disappointed, but labor have won the last two elections with minority votes. this means the spread of voters in SA does not meet your personal preferences.

  45. Greensborough Growler @ #2177 Thursday, August 17th, 2017 – 9:02 pm

    I know this is advancing. However, if both Nash and O’Sullivan are disqualified , who would end up being elected if they use the previous election principle!

    Which they would as it is well settled now as the way to do it.

    Nash would be replaced by Hollie Hughes, meaning the Nats would lose a six-year term to the Libs (though whether it is Hughes or Fierravanti-Wells who gets the six years is debatable.) Before anyone asks, it is Hughes not Molan (even though Molan outpolled Hughes) because .6 of a quota would cascade down to Hughes at the start.

    In the O’Sullivan case there is a complication that Canavan is also in doubt from the same ticket in the same state. If one of them goes but not the other the replacement is Joanna Lindgren. If they both go the other replacement is Dan Ryan. By that stage they would have used up seven of their eight preselected candidates.

  50. I remember reading yesterday that Labor has a list of 8 L/NP members who they have S.44 doubts about. Let’s make the assumption that one (Nash) fell today, leaving 7. It’s almost certain that at least one of those 7 is in the HoR.

    That “normally reliable source” that made the Joyce tip will be busy in coming months.

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