YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50

YouGov’s latest records primary support for the major parties lower than others, and finds strong support for both same-sex marriage and a plebiscite.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for Fifty Acres maintains the series’ established pattern of low primary votes for the major parties and strong minor party preference flows to the Coalition. There is a stable 50-50 two-party result derived from primary votes that would land it in the 52-48 to 53-47 range on 2016 preferences: 34% for the Coalition, down two; 32% for Labor, down one; 11% for the Greens, up one; and 9% for One Nation, up one.

Other findings from the poll are a 34-27 lead for Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, with an unusually high 38% preferring a “not sure” option; 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; 51% preferring a plebiscite on the matter, compared with 29% for a decision by parliament; 36% believing Turnbull’s position would be threatened by Coalition MPs crossing the floor on the matter, compared with 29% who thought otherwise; and 33% thinking referendums should be held more often, with 26% saying too many such proposals are being made of issues that should be left to parliament.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1005.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,910 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50”

  1. I think that Bill Shorten’s made the correct choice to campaign all out for ‘Yes’. Guy Rundle puts the case well: https://www.crikey.com.au/2017/08/10/the-postal-plebiscite-is-happening-and-marriage-equality-supporters-need-to-start-campaigning-to-win/#comments?utm_source=TractionNext&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Insider-Subscribe-100817

    “Boycott campaigns always have some leakage, even the best-run. A disorganised boycott would split the pro-SSM campaign down the middle, and make achieving a majority all the more precarious.”

    A narrow ‘No’ result on a low turnout (say 30-40%) would be declared by a win by the anti- brigade and they will get cover from the mainstream media. A future Government would be perfectly justified in ignoring the result, but that would be likely to be very difficult politically. Boycotters might end up doing the homophobes’ work and post postpone same sex marriage for this Parliamentary term and the next.

  2. Yes, and how long till the tents in Wentworth Park are moved on. Seems to me Gladys bill gives the government the right to push the homeless around however they wish.

  3. Have people say they are going to/did boycott the survey but they vote actually vote yes. Then apply spin.
    It’s a sham anyway so why not game it to the max

  4. Adrian

    Shades of the Occupy folk, in Melbourne, being moved for the Queen’s visi., whenever.

    Gotta keep the hoi polloi from having a say. I wonder how many of them are Ordinary Australians.

  5. The problem I have with polygamy is it always seems to be in favour of men, who can take on multiple wives but the same is not allowed for women. The reports of how women are treated and the negative consequences for the wives in such marriages cause me to be very wary of polygamy. I also associate this with cults.

  6. Typical fascist government procedures 101.

    Decrease funding to public housing, sell existing public housing in the city to developers, don’t mandate a proportion of new developments for public housing, then act surprised when there are more homeless on the streets, so criminalise them to ‘move them on’.
    All the while as rents become more and more expensive.

    Bastards.

  7. Diogenes @ #1482 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 5:08 pm

    bemused
    The article says the government will still set fees and charges but I suppose we all know what that really means. And customers will “not notice any difference to the service”. And I suppose we all know what that really means. And there will be no job losses.
    Sounds a bit too good to be true, doesn’t it.

    It means they are dupes, liars, or both.

    Inexcusable for a Labor Govt.

  8. Puff, hi there,

    I’m so sorry about your loss of Chelsea, and the last connection with your husband (has it been that long since he died, and my sister died?)

    But I hope that it goes the same way for Ginnie.

    Aren’t they most faithful, stoic little companions?

    They don’t complain, but I’m sure I detect a ‘resignation’ in Ginnie that’s not been there, before; like she’s just going through motions of life now.

    My kids keep telling me to get another dog, another puppy, now. But I don’t want to. I think 3 x 17-year-old dogs, is enough, thank you very much. And that’s not counting the ones who didn’t make it that far.

    So many tears.

  9. Why would a government under extreme pressure, license a three-month campaign just to allow the opposition leader to look the good guy?

    A toxic dynamic is already emerging. Now that Shorten and Tony Abbott have so clearly stated their positions, Turnbull risks being sidelined by a much clearer fight between an ascendant opposition leader with public opinion on his side, and a rampaging Abbott intent on internal havoc and recreating the 1950s.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/this-speech-was-one-of-the-biggest-moments-in-bill-shortens-path-to-the-lodge-20170810-gxtj2c.html

  10. Kezza2 I’m not really sure what all the fuss is about. After all how many people actually move through that end of Martin Place. Unless you’re heading to parliament.
    I believe there are some activists in amongst them but it seems the only ones offended are Gladys and Preeew.

  11. Puff,

    how many dirty underpants do you want to wash?

    Actually, there is a (only one) society of women, who have more than one husband. I’ll have to look it up.

    As I recall, it’s in a very difficult, cold climate, where the babies are kept in a sort of cocoon, and their own waste creates heat, to allow them to survive. The benefit: You don’t have to change a nappy for two years!!

    But, if you want to be fair, back in the day, when a bloke died, his brother took over the care of the dead brother’s womenfolk, whether that meant sexual favours or not, I don’t know. And I’m not talking ancient societies, but contemporary, well, fairly contemporary, ones.

    But, then again, the blokes had all the wealth of the family, that was denied women.

  12. If John Howard can define marriage without a ‘plebiscite’ then the next (ALP) PM can also remove the definition from our legislation without another plebiscite.

  13. Aqualung @ #1511 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 6:04 pm

    Kezza2 I’m not really sure what all the fuss is about. After all how many people actually move through that end of Martin Place. Unless you’re heading to parliament.
    I believe there are some activists in amongst them but it seems the only ones offended are Gladys and Preeew.

    I confess I don’t know the geography of Martin Place (isn’t that where the siege happened?)

    Perhaps it’s too close to the TV studios. Right under their noses, and they’re making a noise about it?

  14. The marriage equality postal survey is vulnerable to voter fraud because Australians will not be given individual identifiers by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, experts have warned.

    The move to anonymise the process is designed to address concerns that if ballots included personal identifiers the ABS would be able to match Australians’ opinions on same-sex marriage with other personal information, in effect spoiling the concept of the secret vote.

    But now the former ABS chief, Bill McLennan, and two privacy experts have warned if voters are not sent an individual identifier, the ABS will struggle to determine who has voted.

    It comes as Malcolm Turnbull told reporters in Canberra the government’s policy would remain that no free parliamentary vote would be allowed without a national vote, even if the high court blocks the postal survey.

    The director of privacy law practice Salinger Privacy, Anna Johnston, told Guardian Australia that if the ABS has the power to collect opinions on marriage as statistical information “they can use the results for data matching without any further limitations”.

    What a mess. Designed by Tony Abbott, sewn up by Malcolm Turnbull.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/10/marriage-equality-postal-survey-vulnerable-to-voter-experts-warn

  15. I honestly think the Liberals brains trust is empty. For the last 10 years they have been bleeding support to the point where I daresay NSW and Victorian parties are nigh on Bankrupt.
    The reason is that they just don’t appeal to a non-conservative demographic which is essentially an ever increasing majority as you work your way backwards from around 50 to 60 years old.
    The saving grace for them in recent elections has been the natural tendency for young people to be politically disengaged and not registered to vote.
    So what do they do? They decide to have (of all things) a plebiscite on SSM. Something that is very much a young demographic social issue about which they are passionate.
    If enough younger people enroll and send in their votes then the SSM plebiscite comes back as a yes and a larger number of young are now politically engaged and likely to vote in the next election whereas normally they wouldn’t have.
    Conversely if the SSM plebiscite comes back as a no then an even larger number of young people will vote at the next election on the basis that Labor will change the laws.

    There is no winnable position for the liberal party. Either Way it will accelerate their demise as a political force in Australia.

  16. When polygamy comes up as a topic for serious consideration in the Parliament then let’s talk. Until then it’s academic and irrelevant

  17. Don’t the ABS have to justify the result as “statistical information” somehow? What happens if the conduct of the survey is so flawed (which it is) as to prevent a meaningful statistical analysis?

  18. JimmyDoyle
    Meher Baba

    The reality is that the Labor Party is the only party that has consistently listened to the LGBT community, which DOES NOT WANT a vote on its rights.

    I’m curious – have you actually ASKED whether your close family member wants every single person in the country to be asked to pass judgement on THEIR relationship?

    Labor did not seek this particular scrap. But nor will Labor walk away from it. To do that would simply concede the ground to the troglodytes. We owe it to ourselves and to each other to speak up for our beliefs. We must campaign for equal protection and for a common dignity. Shorten and the FPLP are correct.

    On “bigots”….

    https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/bigot

    NOUN
    A person who is intolerant towards those holding different opinions.
    ‘don’t let a few small-minded bigots destroy the good image of the city’
    ‘he was a fanatical bigot’
    Origin
    Late 16th century (denoting a superstitious religious hypocrite): from French, of unknown origin.

  19. I particularly like the gross hypocrisy of Liberal scumbags trying to make an issue of Labor not changing the Marriage Act in their six years of government.

    As with everything that comes out of a lying Liberal liars filthy mouth it is mostly dishonest.

    Stephen Jones’ bill to amend the act to allow SSM went to the House in . Labor members were allowed a conscience vote. Bill Shorten voted yes. as did Plibers and Albo. Abbott though made sure no conscience votes were allowed on his side. Might not have made a difference at the time, but seeing as Shorten voted yes on the chance he had to do so, then fought for binding Labor to a yes vote if it didn’t get up this term – and won that fight.

    Plenty of people have done more to advance the cause of SSM than Bill Shorten. Absolutely none of them are members of the Parliamentary Liberal Party.

  20. Tony Burke‏Verified account @Tony_Burke · 7h7 hours ago

    Murray Darling Judicial Inquiry vote defeated with every Lib and Nat MP voting to prevent this investigation.

    They really are the pits.

  21. Thank you Kezza.
    I keep expecting Chelsea to be on her in my bed at night, or in the day on heated dog bed, or laying in the sunshine.

    I still keep her jumper under my pillow.

    kezza2 @ #1509 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 5:23 pm

    Puff, hi there,

    I’m so sorry about your loss of Chelsea, and the last connection with your husband (has it been that long since he died, and my sister died?)

    But I hope that it goes the same way for Ginnie.

    Aren’t they most faithful, stoic little companions?

    They don’t complain, but I’m sure I detect a ‘resignation’ in Ginnie that’s not been there, before; like she’s just going through motions of life now.

    My kids keep telling me to get another dog, another puppy, now. But I don’t want to. I think 3 x 17-year-old dogs, is enough, thank you very much. And that’s not counting the ones who didn’t make it that far.

    So many tears.

  22. lizzie @ #1510 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 6:03 pm

    Why would a government under extreme pressure, license a three-month campaign just to allow the opposition leader to look the good guy?

    A toxic dynamic is already emerging. Now that Shorten and Tony Abbott have so clearly stated their positions, Turnbull risks being sidelined by a much clearer fight between an ascendant opposition leader with public opinion on his side, and a rampaging Abbott intent on internal havoc and recreating the 1950s.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/this-speech-was-one-of-the-biggest-moments-in-bill-shortens-path-to-the-lodge-20170810-gxtj2c.html

    Well derr.

    Trumble fucked up. Tell me something new.

  23. lizzie

    In your backyard?

    Been meaning to say to you, thanks a lot, every time I rinse something to put in the recycle bin, I think of you.

    It’s not that I waste water, I rinse it in the water at the end of washing up. I don’t have a dishwasher, so it’s still head-over-the-suds in the kitchen sink.

    It’s a pull between water and the gas/electricity to heat it.

    Plus, I don’t want my garbage bin to stink! (I already freeze most of the waste because I was told that it’s cheaper to run a full fridge than a half-empty one) and then deposit in the bin on rubbish day.

  24. kezza2

    No, just a pic I found on Twitter. It expressed the way I’m feeling today.

    Freezing your waste. I never thought of that (but then, my freezer used to be half full of Ken’s bird specimens).

  25. ratsak

    It’s taking a long time for all the MSM to get their heads around “failed Malcolm”. But think of how long they admired Abbott while he stuffed up the country. Now, you can’t find a pic in which he doesn’t look evil. Hahahaha.

  26. Simon Benson column in the GG today was one long concern troll for Shorten.
    “Shorten’s conundrum: to fight the process or join the Yes campaign”.
    It opened with
    ‘Bill Shorten is faced with an intolerable choice’.. and went downhill from there.

    He doesn’t quite compare the situation to Turnbull’s ‘masterful’ prorogued parliament stunt last year but gets close.
    Also “The Labor leader realizes he has more to lose than the Prime Minister from the outcome”.
    He thinks, if the result is No, the left of the Labor party will rise up and I guess, do something bad.
    Worse if there is a low turnout resulting in a No Labor will be torn apart.

  27. Zoidlord, I would have thought same sex marriage was more loaded than marriage equality. You have to wonder at the thought processes behind some of these decisions.

  28. This is interesting, from an SMH article on Trump and his tweets this week

    “It very nearly did: Voters made it clear that they trusted Clinton vastly more than Trump on the use of nuclear weapons – by 57 per cent to 31 per cent in a Fox News poll in October, for example.”.

    And just like that, Trump revives fears about his possession of nuclear codes
    As with most things Trump, the furore over the “fire and fury” has divided the US in two.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/with-fire-and-fury-donald-trump-revives-fears-about-his-possession-of-nuclear-codes-20170810-gxth2b.html?btis

    I tend to agree with them. HRC would have been much safer as Commander in Chief.

  29. “Shorten’s conundrum”

    No conundrum here for Shorten. Support SSM and shitcan Turnbull in the process. Help the Lib/Nats tear themselves apart.

    If the ALP gets serious about supporting a yes campaign, the LNP find themselves well and truly up against a well oiled and a well aimed ALP machine…………when they dont have to be.

  30. Ending on another sad note. Good night, bludgers.

    Western Australia is seeking to remove constitutional barriers to punishing live exporters over animal welfare concerns after 3,000 sheep died on a single voyage to the Middle East last year.

    The animals died from heat stress on Al Messilah, a converted car carrier that left Fremantle bound for Doha on 3 July 2016. It was the largest single sheep mortality event on an Australian live export ship in 2016.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/aug/10/wa-seeks-powers-to-prosecute-live-exporters-after-3000-sheep-die-on-ship

  31. Diogenes,

    “For argument’s sake, why shouldn’t three people who love each other be allowed to get married?”

    Getting nagged in stereo? No thanks.

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