YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50

YouGov’s latest records primary support for the major parties lower than others, and finds strong support for both same-sex marriage and a plebiscite.

The latest fortnightly YouGov poll for Fifty Acres maintains the series’ established pattern of low primary votes for the major parties and strong minor party preference flows to the Coalition. There is a stable 50-50 two-party result derived from primary votes that would land it in the 52-48 to 53-47 range on 2016 preferences: 34% for the Coalition, down two; 32% for Labor, down one; 11% for the Greens, up one; and 9% for One Nation, up one.

Other findings from the poll are a 34-27 lead for Malcolm Turnbull on preferred prime minister, with an unusually high 38% preferring a “not sure” option; 60% support for same-sex marriage, with 28% opposed; 51% preferring a plebiscite on the matter, compared with 29% for a decision by parliament; 36% believing Turnbull’s position would be threatened by Coalition MPs crossing the floor on the matter, compared with 29% who thought otherwise; and 33% thinking referendums should be held more often, with 26% saying too many such proposals are being made of issues that should be left to parliament.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1005.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,910 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50”

  1. puff,

    I feel your pain. Glad you have something to remember Chelsea by, under your pillow. And memories of sunshine, with her. I won’t have that luxury, it’s not that cold in Victoria to warrant a jumper. Still, we love ’em.

    lizzie

    Freezing your waste! A trick told to me by a sister. It works. Then again, she didn’t have an eccentric husband.

  2. “No conundrum here for Shorten. Support SSM and shitcan Turnbull in the process. Help the Lib/Nats tear themselves apart.”
    True imacca, it is as if the press think Shorten and his leadership team have no tactical skills or political nous, like I guess, the Liberal party leadership.

    And I suspect from last election Turnbull doesn’t like campaigning that much.

  3. I don’t want to boycott a YES vote.

    I want it heard loud and clear.

    I don’t have any skin in this game, so far as I know, and it’s not a top of the order issue for me, BUT I can’t deny my fellow citizens something that isn’t denied me because of my sexual proclivities.

    I couldn’t think of anything worse than marriage, but that won’t hold me back from voting YES for people who want to get married, whoever they are, and whatever their inclination.

    I had a choice about, why shouldn’t they?

  4. Kenny’s well makes the interesting point that really the worst outcome for Turnbull is if the NO vote gets up.

    Any which way, it’s lose lose lose.

    1. NO gets up – He looks like a the weak hypocrite he is for facilitating the outcome he didn’t want, didn’t vote for, and tellingly refused to campaign against. Abbott and the gangsters get to keep the filth flowing. They loose govt, and SSM is a cert.

    2. YES gets up – gets knocked over in the house. See 1. and add the dishonour of the repudiation of everything the survey was meant to mean – the people get their say. They loose govt; SSM a cert

    3. YES gets up – passed in the parliament. Labor claims victory as it is the only party to campaign for the YES vote


  5. Acerbic Conehead

    Diogenes,

    “For argument’s sake, why shouldn’t three people who love each other be allowed to get married?”

    Getting nagged in stereo? No thanks.

    Lot cheaper to buy a GPS navigator to do that. One wanting turn left the other turn right; at least you can turn the GPS off.

  6. Kezza:

    I will be voting yes. You can bet that if the no vote wins the anti-SSM crowd will claim vindication that the community does not want marriage equality. What better way to beat them at their own game by getting the yes vote over the line?

    I find those saying they will boycott the plebiscite to be much like those who claimed the CPRS wasn’t pure enough, so they were opposing it. And look what happened, we ended up with nothing. Or Hillary Clinton wasn’t pure enough so they were boycotting the US election. And look what happened, we ended up with Trump.

  7. Fess

    The dilemma, for me, is that people like Justice Michael Kirby are urging a NO vote.

    I guess he knows what he’s talking about.

    Yes, it is humiliating, yes, it is obnoxious, yes, it’s going to be hurtful and horrible, but in the end if it comes up YES, then I think it’s worth it. However, I’m not going to personally suffer.

    And, reluctantly, even though I think so many people would vote ‘yes’, I have to take account of the people it is going to affect.

    And I would like to do that for them. I don’t know.

    What do your reckon?

  8. So the phrase “marriage equality” is one that you will not hear on the ABC if they are all good boys and girls and do as they are told.
    WTF?

  9. confessions @ #1559 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 7:20 pm

    I will be voting yes. You can bet that if the no vote wins the anti-SSM crowd will claim vindication that the community does not want marriage equality. What better way to beat them at their own game by getting the yes vote over the line?

    I find those saying they will boycott the plebiscite to be much like those who claimed the CPRS wasn’t pure enough, so they were opposing it. And look what happened, we ended up with nothing. Or Hillary Clinton wasn’t pure enough so they were boycotting the US election. And look what happened, we ended up with Trump.

    I respect your choice, but I agree with Former High Court justice Michael Kirby:

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/michael-kirby-warns-against-dangerous-political-precedent-of-a-gay-marriage-plebiscite-20160821-gqxv9g.html

    I will be boycotting.

  10. Yes, it is humiliating, yes, it is obnoxious, yes, it’s going to be hurtful and horrible, but in the end if it comes up YES, then I think it’s worth it.

    And there’s the rub. It will be whether it’s boycotted or not. By all means try to stop it through any legitimate means (as in the High Court challenge) but failing that, supporters of SSM will have to engage with this obnoxious fake ‘plebiscite’.

  11. briefly

    KayJay
    briefly

    Bill Shorten hit his stride today. He sure speaks for me!

    Et moi aussi

    Encore et plus encore!!!

    Oh monsieur je vous aime bien ❗

  12. Kezza

    I’ve lived with dogs all my life since my first Cocker (Rusty) as a 4yr old in Albury. It’s the reason I’ve never really lived or worked OS. Nowadecades it’s two – the loss of an only one just too hard, the pain much softened by the other still on the bed. Their spirits are all but identical, tho the personalities so different. A 12 yr old and a 1 yr old now. Kelpies.

    The dogs are SS, and fake root each other all day and sleep together at night. They’re saying now Labor has weighed in heavily on the YES campaign, vote yes.

  13. The legal issues regarding the SSM poll are canvased here, by UNSW law lecturer Paul Kildea, a snippet:

    “Assuming that the ABS gains access to the roll, it is unclear whether it will be able to send ballot papers to all registered voters. The position of silent electors is particularly uncertain.

    The addresses of silent electors are not displayed on the roll: to do so would put their safety, or the safety of their family, at risk. Also, the AEC is not permitted to provide information about silent electors to agencies such as the ABS. As a result, silent electors may wonder if they will be able to participate in the poll.”

    https://theconversation.com/using-the-abs-to-conduct-a-same-sex-marriage-poll-is-legally-shaky-and-lacks-legitimacy-82245

  14. kezza2

    Diogenes @ #1564 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 7:28 pm

    Acerbic Conehead

    I’m going straight to hell for this one.

    comment image

    And so you should, dickhead. Even if you can do math.

    During your sojourn in hell you will be forced to watch Bill Shorten’s ME speech, although unlike the accompanying LNP chappies, your eyelids will not be pinned open.

  15. Kezza:

    We live in an imperfect world and people rarely get everything they want in exactly the way they want it. I can understand Kirby’s frustration, but who knows what the future holds and when the next opportunity for directly voting in favour of SSM will come up again.

    As we’ve seen with carbon pricing your actions even if well-intentioned, can have negative long lasting implications.

  16. “Assuming that the ABS gains access to the roll, it is unclear whether it will be able to send ballot papers to all registered voters.

    I raised this the other day, particularly in the case of rural voters who do not have a mail service but instead use a post box at the local PO.

  17. I find those saying they will boycott the plebiscite to be much like those who claimed the CPRS wasn’t pure enough, so they were opposing it. And look what happened, we ended up with nothing. Or Hillary Clinton wasn’t pure enough so they were boycotting the US election. And look what happened, we ended up with Trump.

    But if the Yes vote succeeds, you end up with… nothing. This survey serves trashes our respect for human rights for absolutely no outcome.

  18. Us overseas voters will not be included either as our address for the purpose of an electorate is our last Australian address. The AEC does not have my overseas address.

  19. Itza

    Post blinded by tears of memories of our best friends.

    And, one of the reasons I’ve never travelled OS. Couldn’t, just couldn’t leave my buddies behind.

    I’m sure they care as much about you as you did/do them.

    And I like they way they vote!

    Keep on doggin’

  20. mimhoff:

    If the yes vote succeeds you end up with a big FU to the reactionaries in the coalition, and a parliamentary vote which would presumably be successful.

  21. Like the Republic, like the CPRS, like the Malaysia deal, a flawed marriage equality amendment can be fixed later. An incoming Labor Government in 2019 or 2022 or whenever can remove superfluous limitations like exemptions for bigoted cake shop owners.

    A “No” vote hopefully won’t delay marriage equality by 20+ years (Republic, equitable regional solution for asylum seekers) or 10-15 years (CPRS), but it would probably be at least 5, into the Parliamentary term after next.

  22. confessions @ #1578 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 7:39 pm

    Kezza:

    We live in an imperfect world and people rarely get everything they want in exactly the way they want it. I can understand Kirby’s frustration, but who knows what the future holds and when the next opportunity for directly voting in favour of SSM will come up again.

    As we’ve seen with carbon pricing your actions even if well-intentioned, can have negative long lasting implications.

    Yes, but since you’re not affected by this, and I’m not, why shouldn’t we take notice of someone who is? And what they think?

    That’s why I’m conflicted over this.

    And, possibly, that’s fkn Abbott’s intention.

    And measly-mouth, lacking in intestinal-fortitude Mal-functional is hoping to be the outcome.

    Shits me, no end.

  23. Kezza
    re washing two loads of undies.

    Living with two husbands? Yuck. If you love a guy enough you can just about overlook the fact that they are hairy, messy (unless well trained), frustrating, always reckon they’re right especially when they are wrong, and always taking the remote. I doubt it is possible to do that for more than one at a time.

    Plus women also end up following the sport or activity of the man’s most of the time. If one husband was into motorsport and the other was a bird watcher life could get complicated.

    But if one was a builder/mechanic and the other a massage therapist/hair dresser, there could be exceptions.

    As the saying goes, you want man who is understanding and sweet, a man who is good in the sack, a man who likes fine dining and culture, and the luck that they never meet each other.
    😆

  24. [Lord Haw Haw of Arabia
    Us overseas voters will not be included either as our address for the purpose of an electorate is our last Australian address. The AEC does not have my overseas address.
    ]

    Same here.

    I’ll have to get my brother to pick it up from Mum and Dads’ place.

    I’m not sure if I could trust them to vote appropriately.

  25. Kezza:

    You can bet Abbott’s banking on the yes vote splitting, just like Howard did with the Republic referendum.

    Why is it that we as progressives continue to be baited by our opponents, instead of seizing opportunities when they arise, keeping our eyes on the prize and working towards that end goal?

  26. kezza

    I’ll be replying to the survey. What I would like is for the Australian Marriage Equality people to put up on their website an objection letter to object to the entire process, so that you can print it out and slip it into the reply envelope along with the official form. That form of protest would get noticed and it the number of such objections might even get counted.

  27. cud chewer @ #1586 Thursday, August 10th, 2017 – 7:48 pm

    Steve, Shorten’s speech today made it explicit that even if the result is an apparent no, Labor would still be legislating for SSM.

    That’s one reason a boycott sends a real message. A message about how disgusted we are when a government tries to avoid making decisions. Mal is ashes and dust anyway, and Shorten will be the next PM. So you can send a message that future governments cannot fail to understand – i.e. we elect them to make decisions, not just take credit for the easy stuff and punt the hard stuff to the next parliament.

  28. cud chewer
    “Steve, Shorten’s speech today made it explicit that even if the result is an apparent no, Labor would still be legislating for SSM.”

    Good on him. But it will be politically difficult. As an earlier poster said, Labor might not win (nearly all the money and most fonts of power will be working for the Dark Side), they might win narrowly and be constrained like Julia Gillard (or to a lesser extent Malcolm Turnbull), or they might face an unsympathetic Senate. Go for the bird in the hand, even if it’s a bit scrawny and dirty. Then fix it later. (Excuse mixed metaphor).

  29. It was with trepidation that I left my doggies in the care of my Mum, with the support of my son when I went to UK last Xmas.

    A friend said to me, a dog only makes you cry once in its life: When it passes away.

    I have a three-year-old pair of Tenterfields bred by my son, a litter brother and sister, by my dog, Trafford, who sired Ajax and Stamp. A&S are in my gravatar.
    Mini Chelsea is sweet and fat, Sam is leggy, skinny and fast, and sneaky!

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