Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Labor in WA

As cabinet assembles in Western Australia, more evidence that the state looms as a big problem for the Turnbull government.

A quiet week looms on the opinion poll front, but Perth’s Sunday Times newspaper entered the breach yesterday with a WA-only poll of federal voting intention conducted by Galaxy, tailored to coincide with cabinet’s visit to the state this week. The results delivered the paper the hard-hitting headline it was presumably angling for, recording Labor with a 52-48 two-party lead that amounts to a 6% swing compared with last year’s election. The primary vote results were Coalition 39% (down from 48.7%), Labor 37% (up from 32.4%) and Greens 11% (down from 12.1%), with One Nation on 5%. Malcolm Turnbull nonetheless recorded a 43-33 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister. The poll also found 59% saying they would vote yes at a same-sex marrige plebiscite, compared with 32% for no; and 61% saying they did not trust the government to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share”, with 21% saying they did. It was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 850.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

714 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Labor in WA”

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  3. adrian @ #32 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 8:22 am

    Good old AM has 15 minutes of Mal telling us how safe we are and slagging off Labor, followed by 5 minutes of Chris Bowen being slagged off by Sabra Lane.

    Didn’t hear it myself but decoding Adrian, it was probably 15 minutes of Mal being allowed to make an idiot of himself and then 5 minutes of Bowen being given an opportunity to take down all the Lib talking points.

  4. Glengarry Glen Ross is the Macbeth of real estate, full of great, blistering lines and soliloquies so liberally peppered with profanity that the original cast had nicknamed the show “Death of a F***ing Salesman.” But a few of those attending the New York revival left disappointed. For a certain type of young man, the star of Glengarry Glen Ross is a character called Blake, played in the film by Alec Baldwin. We know that his name is “Blake” only from the credits; asked his name by one of the other salesmen, he answers: “What’s my name? F*** you. That’s my name.” In the film, Blake sets things in motion by delivering a motivational speech and announcing a sales competition: “First prize is a Cadillac Eldorado. Second prize? A set of steak knives. Third prize is, you’re fired. Get the picture?” He berates the salesmen in terms both financial — “My watch cost more than your car!” — and sexual. Their problem, in Blake’s telling, isn’t that they’ve had a run of bad luck or bad sales leads — or that the real estate they’re trying to sell is crap — it is that they aren’t real men.

    Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/449988/donald-trump-cant-close-deal-failing-salesma

    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/449988/donald-trump-cant-close-deal-failing-salesman

  5. Guytaur

    1. I am really NOT sure what you mean about a gerrymander unless you mean the way the electoral college delegates are allocated. Yes that is a big issue but the problem is that as of November 2016 they were the rules of the game and they were the ones that mattered. It may well be a big issue for Democrats to address in the longer term, but fairly irrelevant in the context of 2016. There is of course a congress gerrymander which is appalling but again it affects the congress not the Presidency

    2. Voter suppression is of course a big issue, but again I am not sure whether it would have made a big difference in 2016. The key states that fell to Trump were Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Ohio and Florida. These I think are not particularly associated with active voter supression (Florida maybe). In any case the balck turnout (who are those whose vote are suppressed mostly) did not turn out with the expected strength for Hillary. Sure it is an issue but probably it did NOT become a crucial issue in 2016.

    3. Russian tampering is a little laughable. What of US tampering in the Yeltsin election or indeed even here in Australia. Honestly if you want to be taken seriously think about the very many elections which the US and its media have interfered within just about EVERY country. What is sauce for gander etc. Obviously the US would not like any foreign government interfering or even commenting but carrying on like pork chops is a bit hypocritical.

    Every foreign government interferes to the maximum extent it can get away with in the elections of other countries. EVERY SINGLE one, including ours. The USA cultivates links with Australian politicians as do Russia and China and UK and Israel and Saudi and France and NZ and Canada and probably Japan and Singapore and South Korea. These links will be aimed mostly at trade but also security. Those with the power and nterest (US, China and Singapore) will no doubt have listening devices here in Australia and to the extent possible will use proxies to assist the campaigns and elections of “friendly” people. Tell me Guytaur what is the logical difference between say Russian interests “assisting” friendly US candidates and the Tea Party evangelicals supporting Cory Bernadi or even (as is alleged by the LNP) George Soros and the US Democrats supporting the ALP via Getup.

    To be honest if Russia really did tamper in the US elections that says much more about the incompetence of the US NSA than it does about anything else. if the US system is so sloppy and vulnerable then frankly the USA should be grateful to the Russians for exposing its weaknesses. Because id the reds can get under the bed so too can Muslim extremists or Chinese or US home grown RW nutters like Timothy McVeigh. Of course also those cheese eating surrender monkeys and lovers of King George could spy too.

  6. I sometimes get the feeling that some people here somehow think that by getting rid of Trump they get a new election and maybe Hillary. Trouble is it does not work like that. The USA and the world gets Pence.

    People on PB know how it works and that a brick would be better than Trump.

  8. DTT

    I am not reading your reply. Too long. As you concede my point thanks for proving me right. No contradiction from you that Clinton should be President.

  9. [lizzie
    jenauthor

    I found the whole article hilarious. Especially the bit where the girls were blamed for being better at their tasks.]

    Maybe the Alter-boys are just too nervous/terrified to do there jobs properly when they come into contact with the Priests.

    And of course the paedophilia only began in the 1960s.

  10. Impressive

    Weatherill, Wong, Bernadi Hanson and someone from One Nation attacking Turnbull as a united front on the Murray Darling issue

  11. [Malcolm Turnbull’s NBN hasn’t even been connected to my house yet, and already it has slowed my internet connection and rendered my smart home almost useless.

    I am not making this up.

    The National Broadband Network, which in my neck of the woods is based around decades-old Hybrid Fibre Coax (HFC) copper technology, was connected to my suburb a month ago, the exact same time that my non-NBN internet connection took a turn for the worse, its upload speed dropping by two-thirds to around 700kbps on a typical day, and less than 100kbps on a bad day.

    According to the technician who dropped by to investigate the problem, that may be no coincidence. My connection would already be running over the NBN backbone, he said, even though there’s another month or two before people in the neighbourhood can officially sign up for and activate it.]

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/technology/web/nbn/what-a-bunch-of-ding-dongs-heres-why-the-nbn-is-far-worse-than-you-think-20170728-gxl1t7?btis#ixzz4oMbSpeHZ
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  12. Phoenix et al

    NO try to read and understand.

    I am NOT using wiki as a substantial source – I really have no idea if true or false. What I am saying is that you can NOW expect allegations of all kinds to come thick and fast. some will be true, others false but they will target congresspeople and other key US elites.

    However just the ALLEGATION about Mueller will damage his credibility. he will NOW need to prove his innocence

  14. Malcolm Turnbull’s NBN hasn’t even been connected to my house yet, and already it has slowed my internet connection and rendered my smart home almost useless.

    There was an article in the West the other week about this. Apparently many homes signing up to the NBN are experiencing internet speeds not even on par with ADSL.

  18. More than perhaps anyone, the words spoken or attributed to the governor of the Reserve Bank are analysed in minute detail. When Philip Lowe speaks, people listen closely, because his words move markets and because they know, unlike politicians, he cannot afford to be glib or inaccurate. So his words this week agreeing that inequality has worsened should be listened to by the government – because right now they are being left behind by Labor and looking very much out of touch with the experience of most workers.

    Music to my ears. The Reserve Bank Governor’s opinion will trump any bullshit that Morrison can come up with.

    I also had a quick listen to Neil Mitchell regarding the trusts issue and despite his typical pot stirring it was evident from the few calls I heard from listeners that Shorten is on fertile ground.

  19. DTT

    [I am NOT using wiki as a substantial source – I really have no idea if true or false. What I am saying is that you can NOW expect allegations of all kinds to come thick and fast.]

    All of which you’ll be happy to propagate.

  20. Fess

    And furthermore –

    [As a professional gadget reviewer, my house has become something of a smart home of late, and the interesting thing about the smart home devices – something Mr Turnbull lacked either the imagination or the willingness to see when he insisted the NBN should use highly asymmetric copper wiring to connect to households – is that they are, almost without exception, far more sensitive to upload speeds than to download speeds.
    …
    According to Mark Gregory, associate professor in network engineering at Melbourne’s RMIT, says a crucial requirement for getting vast numbers of IoT devices onto 5G wireless networks will be tiny, short-range 5G “femtocells” that offload wireless traffic onto the fixed broadband network.

    But the femtocells need fibre connections, not copper, which can’t possibly upload fast enough nor with low enough latency.

    Though of course, if nothing is done to remedy the rollout of the NBN, if the copper isn’t replaced by fibre on a wide scale as per the original design before Mr Turnbull turned the technology into his political plaything, the Internet of Things may never really take off here.

    Who on earth would buy an internet doorbell that doesn’t tell you who’s at the door till after they’ve left?]

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/technology/web/nbn/what-a-bunch-of-ding-dongs-heres-why-the-nbn-is-far-worse-than-you-think-20170728-gxl1t7?btis#ixzz4oMcHCxUN
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  21. However just the ALLEGATION about Mueller will damage his credibility. he will NOW need to prove his innocence

    If people are as gullible and willing to believe as dtt is, they will.

  22. Guytaur

    Er um I made no comment whatever about the BBC.

    All I am saying is that assuming that the Russians DO spy on the US then you can expect a rush of leaks of all kinds of damaging stuff. Surly this is obvious!!!!

    The Mueller stuff is I assume just a foretaste of stuff to come.

    I am not sure it matters much if it is true or false. The damage is done.

    My point was that by playing the “get the man” card re Trump, there is ALWAYS a risk of blow back. I am actually surprised that it did not start earlier, but I expect a rush of nasty allegations about every congressperson.

  23. Lizzie

    Yes. UK and US way ahead of us on the Internet of Things. Of course one advantage here is that we don’t have people using internet locks as part of their doorbell. The security risks are enormous.
    Why would you? You can be at work and have camera observation of delivery person. Unlock door and have package delivered at home when you are elsewhere.

    Just not possible no matter the risks here.

  24. GT

    That presser had Weatherill, Wong, Benardi, Hanson and NXT? Or its that all of them have bagged Turnbull recently?

    Bagging on Turnbull goes well in SA given that they all have existential issues with the Murray-Darling.

  25. Briefly is a self-winding stooge for the CIA…Clinton belongs to the CIA…Briefly is here to help protect the CIA’s property.

    See fixed it

  26. In dtt world,

    Her assertions are fact; (even when “facts” she uses in them are wrong)

    while

    Facts against are merely assertions.

  27. DTT

    You have in the past on this blog. I remember it clearly.

    Backtracking now won’t help you. The fact is I remember you doing so and that lost you credibility in my eyes. I am not going to go back and find the actual quote as I did not save it.

    Its up there with Clinton is a Hawk in the credibility stakes. She is only a hawk from the Russian view.

    You are going to have to do a lot to restore your credibility in my eyes.

  30. IOM

    Weatherill Spoke then Senator Wong then Senator Bernadi Then Senator Hanson Young then Nick Xenophon then 24 cut it.

  32. Guytaur

    What a bloody cop out. I will stop treating you as a serious poster and consign you to the too stupid to engage with pile.

    But no according to the rules of the game as they were set in 2016 Trump won fairly.

    Clinton ran a stupid campaign ignoring the rust belt states. I read somewhere that Bill Clinton urged her to get herself to Wisconsin but she ignored him too. her basket of deplorable comment was I suspect the last straw.

  34. However just the ALLEGATION about Mueller will damage his credibility. he will NOW need to prove his innocence

    Yes. Trump’s ‘manoeuvring’ is clumsy and transparent. No doubt Mueller is expecting ‘cock-sucking’ expletives at 10 paces.

  36. Guytaur
    Sorry but that comment re Clinton Hawk is SO ignorant as to prove you unworthy to engage with. I posted five easy to find links form US papers that demonstrate that Clinton is relatively speaking hawkish say compared with Obama. this is SO obviously the case that denial is rather Malcolm Ieuan Roberts.

    The BBC was once fantastic but the last 10 years has seen it decline in standards. I think you can see symptom of this (not a cause) in the cancellation of once sacrosanct deals to give public broadcasters like the ABC first dibs on BBC programs. Now they go to Fox.

    Anyway as I have indicated you no longer qualify as a poster with whom I wish to engage

    tooroo

  38. The claims about Clinton and uranium were elevated in the first place by Trump. He lied. dtt is recycling the lies. Trump completely distorted the facts to suit his political needs. dtt is doing the same thing now….distorting a tale to serve Trump….but really, why would anyone wish to serve Trump? The real purpose is to serve Putin, for whom Trump is a miracle…a dream come true.

  42. Briefly

    I regard you as a serial apologist for the USA and its warmongering, so we are square,

    I make no apology for being fairly pro Russian – have been since childhood and the heady days of the anti Vietnam war protests. Unlike you I recognize my biases.

    I am NOT pro Trump – how can anyone be pro such a guy. However I believe that he is/was less of a risk to world peace than Clinton.

    Frankly the WHOLE of the USA establishment are a pack of war mongering idiots who think it OK to play nuclear chicken with bears and dragons but hey they are you darlings not mine.

    I believe that we are on the brink of nuclear war and only mind numbing imbeciles deny the possibility of such.

    Now POSSIBILITY (yes Adrian it is in CAPITALS) does not mean CERTAINTY. Can you understand that?

    Every one of us with a brain should be doing our best to prevent it.

    Anyway the fleas are biting.

  45. Mal thinks Grants have been unfair to WA? What about Victoria? “Victoria received only 8 per cent of the total $35.75 billion in infrastructure spending announced in the federal budget, despite our record population growth.”

    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the-age-editorial/melbournes-congestion-crisis-the-metro-rail-tunnel-is-just-not-going-to-cut-it-20170728-gxl709.html

    [(Congestion … costs billions annually in lost productivity and takes an untold toll on the mental and physical wellbeing of commuters, some of whom are spending several hours a day in gridlock. It is the biggest brake on the city’s economy, and has statewide implications, because Melbourne currently produces 100 per cent of the state’s economic growth – there is none in rural and regional Victoria.

    This is a key area where governments need to spend rather than scrimp. Canberra is shirking; the $1.42 billion towards regional rail announced in June is welcome, but there is thus far no significant federal funding for the Metro, the West Gate Tunnel or the level-crossing removal program. Victoria received only 8 per cent of the total $35.75 billion in infrastructure spending announced in the federal budget, despite our record population growth.]

  46. I am NOT pro Trump – how can anyone be pro such a guy. However I believe that he is/was less of a risk to world peace than Clinton.

    You are free to post what you like DTT, but much of what you say does actually read like excuses, including comparisons to Hillary through the prism of your own assumptions about her.

    Recently (a few weeks ago) you appeared to accept that Trump is a disaster. And that is the thing, Trump is a destabilising influence, because he is so incredibly incompetent, and that is a very dangerous thing in itself.

  47. dtt…thanks for confirming the record yourself. From your own text:

    I make no apology for being fairly pro Russian – have been since childhood
    I am NOT pro Trump

    There we are. You pump up Trump (!) because somehow you think this serves Russia/harms America (the West). Everything you post here about war/peace, Clinton/Trump, yada/yada should be seen through the lens of your Russo-philia.

    By your lights, at the end of the day we face the threat of nuclear destruction either because Clinton won or because she lost. It’s hard to know which, except she does get the blame either way; and in either case, nothing can be the fault of Trump, who seems to be (like the rest of us) very much the powerless victim here.

  48. It’s amazing how Trump-pushers can blame Democrats for everything bad the US has done but somehow think that they can escape the consequences their guy is causing.

    You guys worked so so so so hard for these outcomes! You deserve it!

  50. Interesting short piece from Maddow on Friday asking whether Trump might have already served his purpose to the Russians

    i.e. He has given the entire world a perception that US is in chaos and no longer the power it once was.

    This makes Putin ‘feel’ more powerful on the world stage.

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