Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Labor in WA

As cabinet assembles in Western Australia, more evidence that the state looms as a big problem for the Turnbull government.

A quiet week looms on the opinion poll front, but Perth’s Sunday Times newspaper entered the breach yesterday with a WA-only poll of federal voting intention conducted by Galaxy, tailored to coincide with cabinet’s visit to the state this week. The results delivered the paper the hard-hitting headline it was presumably angling for, recording Labor with a 52-48 two-party lead that amounts to a 6% swing compared with last year’s election. The primary vote results were Coalition 39% (down from 48.7%), Labor 37% (up from 32.4%) and Greens 11% (down from 12.1%), with One Nation on 5%. Malcolm Turnbull nonetheless recorded a 43-33 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister. The poll also found 59% saying they would vote yes at a same-sex marrige plebiscite, compared with 32% for no; and 61% saying they did not trust the government to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share”, with 21% saying they did. It was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 850.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

714 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Labor in WA”

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  1. No doubt Turnbull will be looking forward to his WA Visit.

    🙂

    ——

    The Federal Coalition’s National Party really are a disgrace.

    The two Liberal Federal factions, even when combined together cannot control them as the HoR numbers are to close.

    For about 20 years the National’s have been part of a co-operative partnership with the Liberals to gain power and govern with concessions by the Liberals for their leader to be deputy PM and for them to have a number of ministers based on the previous election vote and by-and-large act somewhat reasonably.

    This held through until the loss of the Howard govt.

    Now under Barnaby Joyce have returned to their old habits of pork barreling their electorates to the max. Joyce picking an agency from his portfolio to move to his electorate and Matt (‘son of Barnaby’) Canavan* pushing the Adani mine near his home.

    They are rapidly approaching the level of politics visible by the WA Nationals under Brendon Grylls.

    Just a bunch of opportunistic carpetbaggers with nil interest in what is in Australia’s best interests.

    (* – Canavan’s statement on resigning as minister for resources was that he was proud to have represented the mining industry!)

  2. NK:

    The US says it has carried out a successful test of its controversial anti-missile system and has flown B-1 bombers over the Korean peninsula.

    The exercises are a direct response to recent North Korean missile tests.

    A projectile fired by the US Air Force was intercepted over the Pacific by a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) unit in Alaska.

    US B-1 bombers also conducted exercises over the Korean peninsula with South Korean and Japanese planes.

    On Friday, North Korea test-fired a second intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) which it said proved that the entire US was within striking range.

    The launch came three weeks after the state’s first ICBM test.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-40768870

    A simple warning to NK that if one of their missiles goes even close to hitting something they should expect that the US will retaliate in a big’ way.


  3. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-40768870

    A simple warning to NK that if one of their missiles goes even close to hitting something they should expect that the US will retaliate in a big’ way.

    North Korea’s missiles are not very sophisticated as yet, they can barely get off the ground and proceed to target, and we don’t even know their accuracy, but the obvious method that NK could use when the technology becomes available, is that the missile deploys into half a dozen missiles in the ‘mid-course’ stage, making shooting them all down impossible.

    This technique has been posited for many years in such situations.

  4. Ctar1:

    Now under Barnaby Joyce have returned to their old habits of pork barreling their electorates to the max. Joyce picking an agency from his portfolio to move to his electorate and Matt (‘son of Barnaby’) Canavan* pushing the Adani mine near his home.

    This is probably not related to federal National pork barrelling, but our local (Armidale) state Nationals rep, Adam Marshall, has got us a $65 Million ‘super school’.

    http://www.armidaleregional.nsw.gov.au/news/news-2017/new-65-million-armidale-super-school-to-revolutionise-learning

    Although this will be a great fillip for the town, there are many sheeples who are against it, because it means the eventual complete razing of the two main high schools in Armidale, and they have fond memories of the cramped and falling to bits AHS main hall, and classrooms, doncha know. ‘Youze can’t destroy my memories you bastards!’

    There will be a ‘a state-of-the-art multipurpose performing arts centre and recording spaces, equipped with seating for up to 1,000 people, which will be able to stage musicals, theatre productions and school presentations and conferences. ‘ And this will be available to the local community.

    Since there has been infighting here about a PAC for many years, where it will be, who will pay for it (bearing in mind the white elephant of a PAC in Port Macquarie, came close to bankrupting the town) this is a welcome development.

  5. Kellyanne Conway Demands All Americans Treat Trump With Deference And Humility

    Kellyanne Conway has been going on Fox News and delivering the message that Trump and Mike Pence should be treated with deference and humility because elected officials like Trump aren’t your peers. They are better than you.

    What Trump doesn’t understand is that respect is something that is earned, not given, and while Americans respect the office of the presidency, they don’t have to respect the man occupying it.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/30/kellyanne-conway-tells-wh-staff-americans-treat-trump-deference-humility.html

  6. Republicans call on new Trump chief of staff to fix White House chaos

    Republicans on Sunday urged President Donald Trump’s new chief of staff John Kelly to rein in the chaos within the White House on Monday but said the retired Marine Corps general will be challenged to assert control.

    “Anybody who thinks they’re going to change Donald Trump doesn’t know Donald Trump,”

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/30/republicans-call-trump-chief-staff-fix-white-house-chaos.html

  7. ‘John McCain is a piece of sh*t’: Trump ally Roger Stone says senator is ‘traitor’ regardless of brain cancer

    Roger Stone, a controversial longtime adviser to President Donald Trump, called Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) a “peice of sh*t” and a “traitor” for voting against the repeal of President Barack Obama’s health care reform law.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/john-mccain-is-a-peice-of-sht-trump-ally-roger-stone-says-senator-is-traitor-regardless-of-brain-cancer/

  8. When Cormann was asked about this poll yesterday he commented on the Liberal primary vote saying “it is up 7%, so we are heading in the right direction”.

    Presumably he was talking about the state election result.

    Such chutzpah!

  9. Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 12h12 hours ago

    Moral and physical blindness. Morrison pretends inequality is reducing. ABC helps disinformation saying inequality, is “contested territory”

  10. Let’s return Barnaby to NZ with a suitable label.

    [Barnaby Joyce whose father was a New Zealander is hoist with the 44 (i) petard. Joyce maintains he’s not a Kiwi because he was born in Australian and he never applied for NZ citizenship.

    Yet the 1948 British Nationality and New Zealand Citizenship Act (Section 7), which was in place in New Zealand when baby Barnaby was born, clearly states:

    “Subject to the provisions of this section, a person born after the commencement of this Act shall by descent be a New Zealand citizen by descent if his father was a New Zealand citizen at the time of his birth” ]

    https://urbanwronski.com/2017/07/30/joyce-canavan-and-murray-darling-scandal-expose-fatal-flaws-in-turnbulls-government/

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Sam Dastyari opens up about the dangers of accepting political donations.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/investigations/alp-takes-illegal-tobacco-donations-from-big-chinese-cigarette-importer-20170729-gxlcw1.html
    A good weekly Urban Wronski.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2017/07/30/joyce-canavan-and-murray-darling-scandal-expose-fatal-flaws-in-turnbulls-government/
    Peter Martin gets behind Shorten’s plans for trusts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/trusts-shorten-channels-howard-costello-and-hockey-20170730-gxltqu.html
    Phil Coorey has a close look at Labor’s trusts proposal and refers to an important speech to be given by Brendan O’Connor on Wednesday on “resetting the balance of power in the workforce” Google.
    /news/labor-plays-down-small-business-impact-of-41bn-trust-tax-20170730-gxlocy
    Shorten has really got under Morrison’s skin over trusts and it looks like ScoMo’s whingeing is going to be unfounded as Labor is only going after the rorters.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/shortens-family-trust-tax-plan-a-direct-assault-on-small-business-morrison-20170730-gxlky9.html
    Greg Jericho says Morrison should listen to what Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe says rather than trying to suggest he said something else entirely.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/30/convincing-voters-inequality-has-got-better-is-a-tough-sell-for-coalition
    Jess Irvine explains why it IS important to talk about inequality.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-real-story-of-inequality-in-australia-20170729-gxlccg.html
    Sean Nichols talks about the poison that the Israel/Palestine problem can be to a political party.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/bob-carr-says-former-colleague-mark-dreyfus-tried-to-silence-him-over-israel-settlements-20170730-gxlr95.html
    Brad Norrington in The Australian writes that Bill Shorten did really well at the NSW Labor conference yesterday. Google.
    /opinion/columnists/nsw-labor-conference-bill-shorten-connects-with-heartland/news-story/98452301ddbfd5c7a5625d88ad0c1385

  12. Section 3 . . .

    The hidden death toll of methamphetamines.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/violent-suicide-and-heart-disease-the-hidden-death-toll-of-methamphetamines-20170728-gxknxt.html
    Will Joe Biden throw his hat into the ring for the 2020 presidential race? It’s a pity he didn’t run in 2016!
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/violent-suicide-and-heart-disease-the-hidden-death-toll-of-methamphetamines-20170728-gxknxt.html
    Peter Wicks comes out strongly in support of Julia Baird and piles into the record of Christianity.’
    http://wixxyleaks.com/mind-games-christianity-and-the-ongoing-war/
    It’s time for Turnbull and Shorten to unite on Australia becoming a republic.
    https://independentaustralia.net/australia/australia-display/pathway-to-an-australian-republic,10552
    The Turnbull government is exposed¬ to a voter backlash in 13 marginal seats along the eastern seaboard that could cost it power after igniting a row with the Catholic¬ education sector that included¬ allegations of church lies and deceit. Google.
    /news/nation/turnbull-risk-losing-power-over-catholic-funding/news-story/2cb2cb470f5cdd55f4d27e56eab9e4b3
    More than $1 billion of bets against the Australian retail sector will be tested when the earnings season gets under way this week, underlining a difficult year for the stocks with the most to lose from Amazon’s entry.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/1b-of-short-interest-in-retail-stocks-faces-earnings-season-test-20170728-gxkyxf.html
    A nice article from Ross Gittins on what really is important in our lives.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/what-youll-regret-most-at-the-end-of-your-life-20170729-gxlflo.html
    The horrible choice facing far too many indigenous women.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/indigenous-babies-the-next-stolen-generation-20170727-gxkg8m.html
    Why hiring a cleaner is key to domestic harmony.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-hiring-a-cleaner-is-the-key-to-domestic-harmony-20170727-gxjn2x.html

  13. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Matt Golding and the White House version of “walking the plank”.

    A little cracker from Golding on the cricket dispute.

    An outstanding effort from David Pope as he pours scorn on the Coalition.

    Viva la Republique!

    David Rowe and family trusts.

    Ron Tandberg and Gillian Triggs’ departure.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    I think Jon Kudelka has over-simplified Labor’s proposal on the selective taxing of discretionary trusts.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/0c0b0da88547ef6d99e507b096ac73c4

  14. I’ll try section 2 again.

    The state of Australia’s airport security has been thrown into question following the dramatic arrest of an Islamist-inspired terror cell in Sydney who were allegedly plotting to blow up an aeroplane. It’s probably good work by the anti-terror authorities but I’d hate to see it used politically. Boats anyone?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/airport-security-intensified-following-sydney-raid-on-islamistinspired-terror-cell-20170730-gxlpd6.html
    Paul Maley tells us that a family of suspected Islamist ¬extremists allegedly plotted to bring down an Australian commercial jet by gassing the passengers, in what authorities believe was a major terrorist attack plan orchestrated by Islamic State milit¬ants from within Syria. Google,
    /national-affairs/national-security/terrorist-cell-planned-gas-attack-police/news-story/808bb78de37b6d8ba6f73d36ec3e8842
    The House of Representatives and the Senate should run two parallel inquiries into MPs’ citizenship, say the Greens, to end the uncertainty over whether all federal MPs are eligible to sit in Parliament.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/two-inquiries-needed-to-audit-mps-citizenship-greens-20170728-gxkorg.html
    Dean Smith appeals to the Liberal Party to look at its traditions and bring on a conscience vote on SSM this year. Google.
    /opinion/liberals-and-tradition-of-conscience-is-a-marriage-made-in-heaven/news-story/e836e2b0c25988b3bc8b05bc99e1abf2

  15. Section 2a

    Republicans are urging President Donald Trump’s new chief of staff John Kelly to rein in the chaos within the White House but say the retired Marine Corps general will be challenged to assert control.
    http://www.theage.com.au/world/rein-in-white-house-chaos-republicans-tell-donald-trump-20170730-gxlx6p.html
    For all her talk of restoring democracy, Premier Gladys Berejiklian’s council merger backflip revealed a dark truth about how politics in NSW now works: the best outcomes go to those with the deepest pockets. This is quite an interesting contribution.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/give-everyone-not-just-the-rich-a-say-on-their-council-mergers-20170728-gxl5bg.html
    Energy retailers are being forced to hand over details of their profit margins to the consumer watchdog after massive price hikes this month. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commissioner has issued “extensive demands” for documents from retailers — including AGL, Origin and Energy Australia — as part of its inquiry into electricity prices. Google.
    /news/south-australia/energy-retail-giants-forced-to-explain-huge-price-rises-to-accc-inquiry/news-story/d0d542a22e24f725f26e2795af998f7f

  16. Good Morning Bludgers,

    Can someone remind me, and Kellyanne Conway while you’re at it, how much ‘deference’ and forelock tugging went on, especially from Trump, the Tea Party Retrumplicans and the Republican Party and the RWFW media in general, when Barack Obama was President of the United States!?!

  17. https://newmatilda.com/2017/07/25/donnie-and-mal-two-sides-of-the-stupid-idle-rich-coin/?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=socialnetwork

    [It was always going to end badly, but it is only now that we are coming to terms with the Frankenstein’s monster of greed, arrogance and entitlement that we have created at the big end of town. Gross social inequality, poverty, environmental degradation, the denial of science, the denigration of democratic institutions, terrorist fear mongering, you name it, it’s all fair game in the rich’s unholy battle to retain and extend every one of their privileges.

    And so, at this critical juncture, as signs of popular unrest become more prominent, in the US and Australia we find ourselves subject to the leadership of two individuals who represent alternate sides of the stupid/idle rich coin.

    One an ex-corporate lawyer and merchant banker who leveraged his inheritance and the business networks made through his association with Kerry Packer to windfall profits during the dot com bubble of the late 1990s, and as Prime Minister has presided over one of the most idle, irresponsible and directionless governments in Australian history.

    The other the grotesque progeny of four decades of obscene capitalist excess: a multiple bankrupt property developer, pathological liar, fabulist, narcissist, sexual predator and the apotheosis of the stupid rich.

    Both heirs to large fortunes, both earnest patriots notable for their tax avoidance, both seemingly devoid of any principles and values beyond that of holding power, and both afflicted with a sense of personal superiority that far exceeds their real-world capacities.

    In the face of the ensuing debacle, the disbelief of a public strongly interpolated into the myth of the meritorious rich is palpable. The stupid/idle rich are back in the spotlight, screwing up as only they know how, and bundling them back in the cupboard is now going to be that much harder.]

  18. lizzie @ #16 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 4:59 am

    Let’s return Barnaby to NZ with a suitable label.

    [Barnaby Joyce whose father was a New Zealander is hoist with the 44 (i) petard. Joyce maintains he’s not a Kiwi because he was born in Australian and he never applied for NZ citizenship.

    Yet the 1948 British Nationality and New Zealand Citizenship Act (Section 7), which was in place in New Zealand when baby Barnaby was born, clearly states:

    “Subject to the provisions of this section, a person born after the commencement of this Act shall by descent be a New Zealand citizen by descent if his father was a New Zealand citizen at the time of his birth” ]

    https://urbanwronski.com/2017/07/30/joyce-canavan-and-murray-darling-scandal-expose-fatal-flaws-in-turnbulls-government/

    lizzie @ #16 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 4:59 am

    Let’s return Barnaby to NZ with a suitable label.

    [Barnaby Joyce whose father was a New Zealander is hoist with the 44 (i) petard. Joyce maintains he’s not a Kiwi because he was born in Australian and he never applied for NZ citizenship.

    Yet the 1948 British Nationality and New Zealand Citizenship Act (Section 7), which was in place in New Zealand when baby Barnaby was born, clearly states:

    “Subject to the provisions of this section, a person born after the commencement of this Act shall by descent be a New Zealand citizen by descent if his father was a New Zealand citizen at the time of his birth” ]

    https://urbanwronski.com/2017/07/30/joyce-canavan-and-murray-darling-scandal-expose-fatal-flaws-in-turnbulls-government/

    Thanks, Lizzie, a bit of mischief for Monday morning is always needed.

    And thanks as always to BK for the morning wrap.

  19. What’s the bet these are just empty words.

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has told WA voters at a brewery in Perth’s north that the State’s share of the GST “does not pass the pub test”.

    Speaking at the Indian Ocean Brewing Company in Mindarie last night, Mr Turnbull said that he was determined to do something about the raw deal WA was getting on the GST carve-up.

    https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/beer-talk-brings-on-a-defiant-gst-vow-ng-b88552486z

  20. C@tmomma @ #22 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 5:48 am

    Good Morning Bludgers,

    Can someone remind me, and Kellyanne Conway while you’re at it, how much ‘deference’ and forelock tugging went on, especially from Trump, the Tea Party Retrumplicans and the Republican Party and the RWFW media in general, when Barack Obama was President of the United States!?!

    Tsk tsk C@t, don’t you recognise the difference between legitimate freedom of speech and appropriate deference to the office of POTUS when you see it?

  21. Good old AM has 15 minutes of Mal telling us how safe we are and slagging off Labor, followed by 5 minutes of Chris Bowen being slagged off by Sabra Lane.

  22. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/media/calls-to-rein-in-abc-and-sbs/news-story/d339211277600c8578bae3714c04d8cd

    [Media leaders are lobbying the Turnbull government to clip the wings of the national broadcasters in an unprecedented move following mounting anxiety over their effect on commercial operators.

    Corporate chiefs at News Corp, Fairfax Media, Seven West Media and Nine Entertainment are among a group of industry leaders throwing new weight behind criticisms the Australian Broadcasting Corporation and the Special Broadcasting Service are overstepping their public service remit.

    Communications and Arts Minister Mitch Fifield issued a statement in response that marked a distinct shift in tone, and could signal the national broadcasters may face scrutiny over their reach and competitive impulses.

    “From time to time commercial media organisations have raised the issue of public broadcasters competing with them for content and programming,” Senator Fifield said last night. “While the public broadcasters have legislated independence, it’s an area I’m looking at more closely.”]

  23. Lizzie

    Isn’t that chart really about income inequality?

    Shouldn’t poverty also relate to the cost of living, rather than an arbitrary line relating to the median household income?

  24. Talk about a biased question on GST.

    It presupposes that paying the states according to how much they need the money is unfair, and then asks whether they trust the government to deal with this fictional problem.

    What are people who support needs based gst distribution meant to select?

  25. Moksha

    I was around when the Poverty Line was first created, but I can’t remember what the criteria were.
    The chart does label it ‘relative income poverty’.

  26. Moksha

    Median income is a reasonably good proxy for cost of living. In any case for Australia it might look much much worse under a cost of living model since housing is very very expensive as is electricity, two of the essential ingredients for living, the others being food, petrol and I guess medical care.

  27. Morning all

    I found it rather Interesting that my youngest who is still a teenager, asked me yesterday re the raids on the terror suspects. she was rather dubious about the fact that all the media happened to be there etc. Apparently those on social media she interacts with, thought the same thing.
    Told her Whilst I believe law enforcement were doing due diligence, it is being once again politicised.
    Turnbull and co really want to govern us with fear. Pathetic.

    Meanwhile The word is that the Trump shitshow is ready to take another turn

  28. Lizzie, just his obvious relish at rehashing the Dastysri donation story. My main problem is his whole delivery…. he just seems so utterly smug.

  29. “Good old AM has 15 minutes of Mal telling us how safe we are and slagging off Labor, followed by 5 minutes of Chris Bowen being slagged off by Sabra Lane.”
    The ABC probably thinks people haven’t noticed. The Guardian, sans First Dog, try to push the Malcolm line whenever possible, as well. I think they both believe their false reputations (liberal/independent) will allow them to get away with it.

  30. Six months in, Trump has pushed out a staggering number of top people, culminating with Reince Priebus. And in his paranoid, aggrieved isolation, he’s even thinking about nixing Steve Bannon, nemesis of the Mooch, and mulling firing the one who could get him fired, Mueller, and pardoning himself for possible charges.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/29/opinion/sunday/president-trumps-really-weak-week.html?mi_u=80183539&_r=0

    Bill Maher calls him the Real Housewife of Pennsylvania Avenue, for obvious reasons. 😀

  31. victoria

    Morning all

    Meanwhile The word is that the Trump shitshow is ready to take another turn

    ********************************************

    Lot of posts from many sources regarding those Trump ‘modelling agencies’ …….. lot of accusations and new material turning up ….

    ……. so far those spineless GOP members seem too afraid to move against him no matter how much humiliation Trump publically heaps on them

  32. Thanks BK
    Shouldn’t be hard for Shorten to maintain ascendancy on the inequality debate. There is a wealth of data and analysis which takes the debate beyond simple “fairness” to a fundamental discussion about the nature of society. Addressing inequality is good for business as well as for the poor and middle classes. It also appeal to those Howard battlers, and a section of the Hansonites, which have taken the bait and switch of blaming migrants and Muslims for their poor economic circumstances.
    Thomas Piketty has done the world a huge favor in systematically documenting inequality, and now progressive politicians can leverage this expertise.

  33. Martha

    I don’t watch him much, but am very amused at the way he wiggles his bum, while sitting. You’d think a producer could warn him it looks silly.

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