Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Labor in WA

As cabinet assembles in Western Australia, more evidence that the state looms as a big problem for the Turnbull government.

A quiet week looms on the opinion poll front, but Perth’s Sunday Times newspaper entered the breach yesterday with a WA-only poll of federal voting intention conducted by Galaxy, tailored to coincide with cabinet’s visit to the state this week. The results delivered the paper the hard-hitting headline it was presumably angling for, recording Labor with a 52-48 two-party lead that amounts to a 6% swing compared with last year’s election. The primary vote results were Coalition 39% (down from 48.7%), Labor 37% (up from 32.4%) and Greens 11% (down from 12.1%), with One Nation on 5%. Malcolm Turnbull nonetheless recorded a 43-33 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister. The poll also found 59% saying they would vote yes at a same-sex marrige plebiscite, compared with 32% for no; and 61% saying they did not trust the government to “change the distribution of GST revenue to ensure WA receives a fairer share”, with 21% saying they did. It was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 850.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

714 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to federal Labor in WA”

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  1. PhoenixRed

    From what I have gleaned, the big story yet to Come out hasnt been given the go ahead yet. This is due to the National security aspect of the matter.
    After McCain’s thumbs down to the health care bill, things should ramp this week with respect to the GOP

  2. Victoria:

    “Anyone in a position of responsibility in G.O.P. politics is quickly losing patience with President Trump,” said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist and former adviser to Senator Marco Rubio of Florida. “The dysfunction is beyond strange — it’s dangerous.

    “If Trump’s poll numbers were above 50 percent,” Mr. Conant continued, “health care reform would have passed. Instead, he’s spent more time responding to cable TV chatter than rallying support for his agenda.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/29/us/politics/trump-presidency-setbacks.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

  3. I should add that there are increasing reports in msm about WH aides infighting, mistrust among staff, and increasing dysfunction and chaos.

  4. Ph0enix

    I think we all understand that you are opposed to Trump and are exited about the prospect of impeachment. BUT in the spirit of careful what you wish for what is your considered opinion about how president pence will perform, in terms of the three key areas that matter – foreign policy, economic policy (inc GHG) and social policy.

    Because if and when Trump departs the USA gets president Pence who is a hard right conservative on economic and social policy (more than Trump) and pretty unknown on foreign affairs.

    Remember also that the USA will have him certainly for three years, probably for 7 and quite possibly for 11 years.

    Is that what you actually WANT?

    I sometimes get the feeling that some people here somehow think that by getting rid of Trump they get a new election and maybe Hillary. Trouble is it does not work like that. The USA and the world gets Pence. Now I personally think he is one helluva scary dude and even more so because he appears competent.

    What do you think?

  5. confessions
    Bill Maher calls him the Real Housewife of Pennsylvania Avenue, for obvious reasons.

    I really wish he hadn’t!
    It’s obviously sexist to use a female appellation as a mocking insult.
    It’s also very unfair to any housewife to be compared to Trump.

  6. This is the most laughable defence of Trump: he’s inexperienced and doesn’t know what he’s doing!

    Joseph A. Trillo, a former Rhode Island Republican Party chairman who led Mr. Trump’s campaign in the state, faulted others for the White House disarray and chalked up any missteps to Mr. Trump’s newcomer status in Washington.

    “He’s made some mistakes,” Mr. Trillo said of Mr. Trump. “He didn’t have political experience, and I think some of the biggest mistakes are some of the people he has surrounded himself with.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/30/us/politics/republicans-white-house-disarray-trump.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

    Well duh! You don’t have any experience with government and don’t have the humility to listen to advice, this is the mess you find yourself in – everyone knew Trump would be a disaster of a Potus.

  7. The hypocrites of the Right.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2017/07/28/josh-bornstein-right-hypocrite/

    [McIntyre’s career as a sports commentator was ruined by a social media lynch mob including Rita Panahi, Chris Kenny, Jamie Briggs and Mark Textor. They attacked McIntyre and incited SBS to sack him. Chris Kenny wrote “this scumbag hates Australians but makes a living from them.” Malcolm Turnbull quickly intervened and McIntyre’s career in Australia was over. More recently, a sustained right wing pile-on, bearing more than a passing resemblance to repulsive scenes from William Golding’s Lord of the Flies, swamped Abdel Maggeid with similar results.

    Both McIntyre and Abdel Maggeid have fled the country.
    ]

  8. Briefly:

    It was actually quite a funny take on that reality TV show. If you’ve seen it you’d know it’s a perfect description for Trump with all his melodrama.

  9. dtt,

    It is impossible for a President to serve more than 10 years.

    If a vice President is promoted in the first 2 years of a term they may only stand for reelection once.

  10. The most annoying fact about these email comments by Crikey is that they refer to posts that I haven’t read and haven’t posted. WTH?

  11. dtt

    Competent is better than crazy, because crazy is unpredictable.

    But hey, I’m happy to see the USA destroyed as the dominant world power, and welcome our Chinese overlords.

  12. Good Morning

    The war on drugs is doing so well deaths from just one drug ICE now exceed the road toll.
    _____________________________
    Briefly

    I am with you about Maher. There are plenty of shows around to compare Trump to to ridicule him. He could have used Jersey Shore for example. I am sure there are contemporary shows Maher could have used.

    However to reach the Trump voters maybe its something that had to happen.

  13. daretotread

    

    Ph0enix

    I think we all understand that you are opposed to Trump and are exited about the prospect of impeachment. BUT in the spirit of careful what you wish for what is your considered opinion about how president pence will perform, in terms of the three key areas that matter – foreign policy, economic policy (inc GHG) and social policy.

    What do you think?

    **************************************

    I am not completely sure that Pence’s position is totally secure – lots of conflicting opinions with respect to his ‘association’ with Flynn ….. that may ??? be significant in his possible elevation

    This still has a long way to go and a lot of options still to play out ………

  14. Victoria
    It is now very probable that assuming Russia DOES have spies etc in the USA and listens to stuff, that lotsa embarrassing stuff will now start to come out about democrats and Russia. Indeed it has already started with damaging revelations today about Mueller and Clinton and uranium.

    There is always a real risk when people “play the man” as the Democrats and Republicans have been doing over the last 6 months.

    Now if I were a US Senator or Congressperson or business with interest in gaining from sanctions I would want to be bloody pure in heart, certain that I have never done a shady deal, never chatted to a Russian or Chinese on any matter of importance, never met a Ukrainian or Saudi, Pakistani or Jordanian with with dubious links to acts of terror, never cheated on my partner or had sex with school kids, never hung about in a gay bar (unless publicly out) and do not have too many embarrassing accounts in the Cayman islands. Hope the kids are all behaving well too – no drugs or crimes.

    Because I suspect that the easiest method for Russia to do pay back will be to release any damaging stuff they have. If they really have been hacking and interfering then I imagine there will not be very much they do NOT know.

    Indeed they more or less gave a hint that they would release what they know of shady tax dodges in one of the interviews today – forget which -not Lavrov or Putin a third guy whose name I do not recall. I think finance related.

    I rather doubt that wikki telling the world that Mueller handed uranium to the reds is just a co-incidence.

  15. In case it has not been posted. One tweet I liked on the terror campaign.

    NewtonMark: Terror raid in Surry Hills? Thank Christ, they’re FINALLY going after The Daily Telegraph.

  16. Inside Washington, the reservations run even deeper. Some veteran Republican lobbyists are increasingly skeptical that the president has built a team capable of making good on his promises. At the end of a week in which the party failed in its promise to repeal former President Barack Obama’s health care law, one Washington lobbyist, who did not want to be identified as being critical of the president, said he and others were frustrated, appalled and scared.

    The beginning of the rats starting to desert the sinking ship (excepting those pushed out by Trump of course)?

  17. DTT

    You may hate the idea. However Hillary Clinton should and would have been elected if the following was true.

    1) No Gerrymander. A Gerrymander that favours those backing the military industrial complex.
    2) Voter Suppression
    3) Russia stayed out of the US elections by selectively leaking damaging information.

    These are FACTS. Something you cannot contradict because no matter what your opinion you cannot have your own facts. Yes its my opinion about who the Gerrymander favours but the truth is the Gerrymander is there and had the most impact.

  18. Victoria and Confessions

    Imagine you are an ordinary yank and you need to compare two issues

    Trump and friends who may had some meetings with Russians versus Clinton and the prosecutor Mueller who sold enriched uranium to Russia. it is a bit of a no brainer and the RW media is set to milk it for every drop.

    My guess is that Sessions NOW has the smoking gun that will allow him to sack Mueller – after all how can he realistically be seen as unbiased about Russian links when he PERSONALLY handed enriched uranium to Russia. Sessions recused himself for a much less significant contact.I am taking a wild guess to suggest that the Russians released this information.

    It doe NOT matter if he was doing the right or wrong thing. It is the look of the thing and I suspect he is toast.

  19. DTT

    On your Mueller claims. I see you are using Wikileaks as a source. This selective leaking to smear Mueller to help Trump sack him.

    Remember the Democrats did not choose Mueller the GOP did. We can worry about what Wikileaks has revealed after he does his job. Its only being raised to defend Trump and like it or not we know that the Russian intelligence community leaks to Assange.

    Putin wants Trump in the White House its doing him so well as he weakens the US voice around the world on the good stuff they talk about.

    There is lots to dislike about the United States no doubt of that. However on important things their voice has been strong and getting stronger on the good things they talk about and the actions that back that up.

    Look at the broad picture not just a narrow view as espoused by dubious sites on the web peddling a narrative in favour of Russia

  20. daretotread

    Victoria and Confessions

    Imagine you are an ordinary yank and you need to compare two issues

    Trump and friends who may had some meetings with Russians versus Clinton and the prosecutor Mueller who sold enriched uranium to Russia. it is a bit of a no brainer and the RW media is set to milk it for every drop.

    *****************************************************
    I think you need to do some more reading on this – it seems like it came from a discredited WikiLeaks post

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/wikileaks-russia_uk_597df631e4b02a4ebb75ffec

  21. Phoenix

    Firstly I think that is a bit optimistic re Pence. But then it just passes the question on to Ryan who is next in line I think. then Hatch (who the hell is he) and finally Tillerson (that would be OK ie the best of a bad bunch but he appears smart and sane).

    There are also many unpredictable consequences of a complete breakdown of the US system should both Trump AND Pence be impeached. I would doubt that any Democrat would be elected for a long time and my guess is that another but scarier populist probably with military support would be the NEXT President. Essentially a military coup wrapped in sham democracy. ALREADY the scariest part of the Trump rule is the domination of the military.

  22. Fact Check Politics

    Did Hillary Clinton Tell FBI’s Mueller to Deliver Uranium to Russians in 2009 ‘Secret Tarmac Meeting’?

    Hyperpartisan web sites mischaracterized a State Department cable alerting the U.S. Embassy in Russia of a transfer of criminal evidence obtained in a sting operation.

    WHAT’S FALSE

    There was nothing nefarious in the transfer of the ten-gram sample, which was done at the request of Russian law enforcement and with the consent of the government of Georgia, whose agents had participated in its confiscation.

    http://www.snopes.com/hillary-clinton-robert-mueller-uranium/

  23. DTT:

    I’m sorry but you lost all credibility with me when you stupidly asserted Trump would be a safer pair of hands than Clinton. That even now you can still hold fast to that belief is quite simply beyond ridiculous.

    So I have no interest in anything you have to say about the Trump Administration or voters in the US – Trump voters or otherwise. And especially if you are using discredited sources to do so.

  24. Dtt,
    I sometimes get the feeling that some people here somehow think that by getting rid of Trump they get a new election and maybe Hillary. Trouble is it does not work like that. The USA and the world gets Pence. Now I personally think he is one helluva scary dude and even more so because he appears competent.

    You obviously can’t buy a clue ‘daretotread’. Because if you could, you would know that Mike Pence is just as caught up in the Trump Mob’s scams as Donald Trump himself. Much evidence has already been leaked to that effect.

    Btw, you need to find a tablet for your logorrhea.

  25. confessions @ #38 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 8:32 am

    An ABC article titled ‘what do we know about those arrested’ for the terror plot tells us very little about those arrested apart from their names. Perhaps the media should wait until actual concrete details are available before commenting?
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-31/terrorism-raids-sydney-what-we-know-about-those-arrested/8757492

    Yes,I thought exactly the same. This “news” is simply designed to keep the story in the headlines, even though there is actually nothing whatsoever to report.

    Typical of the ABC.

  26. I also think daretotread needs to take something for her Relevance Deprivation Syndrome.

    Maybe it’s the fleas that you caught when you come here that gave it to you, dtt?

  27. I will just mention in passing that you can disagree with someone but you dont have to resort to personal abuse.

  28. adrian,
    Some posters think what they have to say is sooo important, and that we are sooo dumb, that they have to shout it at us.

  29. http://countercurrentnews.info/2017/07/catholic-church-women-are-to-blame-for-pedophile-priests/

    [According to Pope Francis’s former competitor for the role of the Vatican’s leader, Cardinal Raymond Burke, the rampant crisis of pedophile priests was brought on by women who “feminized” the church and discouraged “manly” men from participating in clerical life.

    Serving mass is a “manly” job argues the Irish American Cardinal, as he claims that the participation of women and girls into the daily life of the church has a chilling effect on priests, causing them to turn to “immoral and unpriestly vocations” such as “abusing minors”.]

  30. Ides of March @ #91 Monday, July 31st, 2017 – 9:48 am

    I will just mention in passing that you can disagree with someone but you dont have to resort to personal abuse.

    What comes around, goes around with dtt. Now you may not have been on the blog long enough to know it but she is the one you need to address that comment to. The rest of us have just lost all patience with her after being abused in the most disgusting fashion, repeatedly, by her. Simply for the ‘crime’ of correcting her non sense.

  31. Fess

    DTT lost me before that. With dismissal of mainstream media completely. Saying for instance the BBC is not a credible source.

  32. Joe Carli‏ @JAYSEE423 · 6m6 minutes ago

    Fran Kelly’s got more LNP cue-cards on the bench in front of her for RN breakfast than a card-sharp has up his sleeve for Pell&Teller!

  33. Lizzie – I seem to recall a similar argument here from a cleric of another faith. Victim blaming. These holier-than-thou types seem to have a lot of trouble resisting ‘temptation’ and then blame the tempter for their own lack of strength.

    Yet they’ll preach purity to others as if they are pure themselves.

    And people wonder what motivates atheists to disbelieve.

  34. This is simply unacceptable: after 50 years the income disparity between black and white Americans has not changed. They clearly need a ‘close the gap’ type campaign over there.

    The income gap between black and white working-class Americans, like the gap between black and white Americans at every income level, remains every bit as extreme as it was five decades ago. (This is also true of the income gap between Hispanic and white Americans.)

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/29/opinion/sunday/black-income-white-privilege.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region

  35. Serving mass is a “manly” job argues the Irish American Cardinal, as he claims that the participation of women and girls into the daily life of the church has a chilling effect on priests, causing them to turn to “immoral and unpriestly vocations” such as “abusing minors”.

    1. The Irish American branch of the Catholic Church is where the Child Sexual Abuse furore started. Long before women were increasingly allowed to take part in minor ways in the church daily life.

    2. Could the Cardinal explain why the Anglican Church, which has allowed women to be more involved than in the Catholic Church, plus allowed pastors to marry and have children, is a lot less affected by the scandal of Child Sexual Abuse?

  36. jenauthor

    I found the whole article hilarious. Especially the bit where the girls were blamed for being better at their tasks.

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