YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50

YouGov again calls a tight race on two-party preferred, but only because of preference flows that have the Coalition outperforming their result at the 2016 election.

The third voting intention poll from YouGov again has primary vote numbers that aren’t wildly off beam from the other pollsters, but leans heavily to the Coalition in terms of preference allocation. However, this is less severe than it was in the last poll, so I’ve decided to revert to type in running the two-party result as my headline, at least on this occasion. Whereas the Coalition led 52-48 in the last poll, this time it’s level despite both major parties being unchanged on the primary vote, at 36% for the Coalition and 33% for Labor. However, the Greens are down two points to 10%, which a) brings this result closer into line than other pollsters, and b) would actually have led to you expect movement away from Labor on two-party preferred, if previous election preferences were applied. One Nation is up a point to 8%. Applying 2016 preference flows to these unrounded figures, the result come out at around 52-48 in favour of Labor.

Other findings from the poll:

• Malcolm Turnbull records 45% approval and 47% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is on 42% approval and 47% disapproval, which is better than what both are used to. Also featured are ratings for a number of second-tier political figures, with results of 34-56 for Tony Abbott, 25-38 for Richard Di Natale, 31-44 for Christopher Pyne, 39-52 for Pauline Hanson, 33-43 for Bob Katter and, with the only net positive result, 50-25 for Nick Xenophon.

• Twenty-six per cent say Malcolm Turnbull “represents what the Liberal Party stands for” more than Tony Abbott, 19% the opposite, 22% call it a draw, and 18% say neither does. The respective numbers are 20-19-13-38 for being in touch with the concerns of ordinary Australians, 30-14-14-30 for electability and 23-19-13-35 for strength of leadership.

• Fifty-three per cent say they would support a referendum on establishing a new body representative of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, but it may just be that people like referendums: of those in favour, 38% would vote yes in such a referendum and 15% would vote no. Support was presumably lower among those opposed to a referendum, but the numbers are not provided.

• Thirty-seven per cent would support a referendum proposal to allow dual citizens to run for federal parliament, with 48% opposed.

• Sixty-eight per cent believe women in sport should get the same pay as men, with only 18% opposed. Sixty-four per cent think the AFL officials who resigned over relationships with younger female staff members were right to have done so, with only 17% saying they were wrong to have.

The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Monday, with a sample of 1005.

NOTE ON COMMENTS REDESIGN: As regular users will know by now, we have a new comments facility which looks a lot sharper than what we had before and has a number of welcome new features. It also publishes the results in reverse chronologically, which is not to everybody’s tastes but has been done for good reason, and which you get used to quicker than you might think. Most of all, this has had a spectacular effect on the efficiency with which Crikey’s servers are operating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,097 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50”

Comments Page 15 of 22
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  1. Voice Endeavour

    I advised myself to write the link at the start of my posts, but myself hasn’t been listening.
    .smirk.

  2. @ cud chewer,
    Take it up with A R, however, he should quite easily add the time of the first/last post within that page, alongside the page number

  3. Voice Endeavour
    Did you just assume my citizenship?

    Senator Roberts claims that when he said he had only ever been a British Citizen, he meant that he self identified as an Australian only. He had never been a British Citizen in his heart, even if he was one on paper.

    …

    The spokesperson is channelling Roberts well.

    It’s almost unintelligible.

  6. @ confessions – there was a 3rd (and 4th) ON candidate in Qld. Roberts got 77 personal votes, and won the seat comfortably. Almost certainly it’ll be 3rd on the ON list.

  9. Senate defies Trump on call to investigate Hillary Clinton

    WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump’s relentless calls for more investigations into Hillary Clinton, her emails and the Democratic National Committee are largely being ignored in Congress, where Republicans spent years and millions of dollars on Clinton probes that turned up nothing.

    “It harkens back to the notion of a banana republic,” Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said of what he called Trump’s “inappropriate” calls for investigations into Clinton. “It’s what dictators do, they look to punish their enemies.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/senate-defies-trump-on-call-to-investigate-hillary-clinton/

  10. Urban Wronski‏ @UrbanWronski · 37m37 minutes ago

    Minister in charge of putting 3200 gigalitres back in the Murray tells farmers in pubs that he will put water back into agriculture instead.

  11. I don’t have half of the features that others seem to have on here – I am really missing having page numbers ……..and after a break I prefer reading oldest to newest first ( otherwise its like reading a book backwards – last page first ) ….

    I DO love the EDIT function though seeing as I make so many typing boo-boos ….

    Just used EDIT twice 😉

  12. Voice Endeavor I’m not sure I entirely follow what you’re saying.
    Eg when I look at BK’s excellent Dawn Patrol, I click on read more and that section unpacks and the links activate. Being on a mobile device I hold my finger on the link and a popup window appears and I can choose to open the link in a new tab, incognito tab, copy text etc.
    And the best thing with the patrol and some posts with quotes, I no longer get random posts where the text disappears off the screen and is unreadable.

  14. phoenixRED @ #711 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 4:15 pm

    I don’t have half of the features that other seem to have on here – I really missing having page numbers ……..and after a break I prefer reading oldest to newest first ( otherwise its like reading a book backwards – last page first ) ….

    I DO love the EDIT function though seeing as I make so many typing boo-boos ….

    Are you running Chrome or Firefox on a computer? Have you installed the C+ Add-in?

  16. bemused

    phoenixRED @ #711 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 4:15 pm

    Are you running Chrome or Firefox on a computer? Have you installed the C+ Add-in?

    **********************************

    No Bemused – running bog standard Win 7 and Internet Explorer – so I don’t even have a QUOTE function , hence this antiquated method of quoting you : (

  17. With the extension installed and ‘recent comments first’ unchecked and ‘Auto update’ set to one minute, my posts do not show up unless I manually refresh. Then I end up back on page one. I have to select the last page number and press ‘go’ to get back to the latest comment.
    yes, I waited the minute. two even.

  18. Barnaby Joyce is simply laying down the rules for Turnbull with his MDB comments. No action will be taken by the Federal government to ensure the proper use and distribution of water. It will all be under the control of Joyce and allocation of water will be at his whim. Bugger the MDB plan.

    Turnbull will roll over. He has to. He signed off on the Nationals controlling water as part of his agreement with Joyce to get his support in rolling Abbott.

    Cheers.

  19. PR

    Is 7 the latest version of IE? If not update it. Better yet don’t use IE. Thats advice I have seen numerous times on security websites

  20. My apologies for misleading everyone.
    Apparently C+ is installed on this machine, and it is this add-on that makes all the difference.

  24. Doyley @ #722 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 4:22 pm

    Barnaby Joyce is simply laying down the rules for Turnbull with his MDB comments. No action will be taken by the Federal government to ensure the proper use and distribution of water. It will all be under the control of Joyce and allocation of water will be at his whim. Bugger the MDB plan.

    Turnbull will roll over. He has to. He signed off on the Nationals controlling water as part of his agreement with Joyce to get his support in rolling Abbott.

    Cheers.

    I wonder if Trumble has a dog. Seems a bit pointless for him to have a pooch if he’s just going to do his own rolling over.

  26. guytaur

    PR

    Is 7 the latest version of IE? If not update it. Better yet don’t use IE. Thats advice I have seen numerous times on security websites

    ***************************************

    I am a Windows 10 hold – out Guytaur – my Windows 7/Internet Explorer -up to date set-up works just fine on all other web-sites – so apart from a few missing new features on PB I am very happy and the less fiddling I do – the less damage I do to my computer : )

  28. @a r,
    Another suggestion, as your code is using the JSON API, you could even add a ‘comment search’ form
    Then search via
    ‘https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/wp-json/wp/v2/comments/?post=’+crikey_custom_js_vars.postID +’&search=BK’
    This seems to search both author_name and also in content. You could refine the search to either option as well
    Would help people find BK’s dawn patrol
    Also could implement a ‘comments im mentioned in’ type thing

  29. I’m about to very briefly test something, so please don’t freak out if something weird happens — it won’t last long.

  31. William Bowe

    

    I’m about to very briefly test something, so please don’t freak out if something weird happens — it won’t last long.

    *********************************

    as the actress said to the bishop

  33. I hear WB is going to enable sort by ‘furthest into the future’ to show comments that haven’t been made yet. Should get the weirdness quota up.

  35. phoenixRED @ #716 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 4:20 pm

    bemused

    phoenixRED @ #711 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 4:15 pm

    Are you running Chrome or Firefox on a computer? Have you installed the C+ Add-in?

    **********************************

    No Bemused – running bog standard Win 7 and Internet Explorer – so I don’t even have a QUOTE function , hence this antiquated method of quoting you 🙁

    What can I say?
    A very sad case.
    Install a decent browser and C+

  36. A Yanchep father who drugged and murdered his two young children to “punish” his wife after she said she wanted to leave him has been sentenced to at least 31 years behind bars.

    Jason Craig Headland, 36, gave his three-year-old son Andreas and five-year-old daughter Zaraiyah-Lily crushed sleeping tablets in juice before murdering them in October 2016.

    https://thewest.com.au/news/crime/father-jason-hedland-imprisoned-for-31-years-drugging-and-murdering-his-two-children-ng-b88550235z

    And go the judge who rejected the man’s pleas that he was stricken with grief that his wife wanted to leave him as the reason he killed his kids by telling him his actions were motivated by hate and selfishness.

  38. ItzaDream @ #723 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 4:25 pm

    bemused @ #700 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 4:04 pm

    NSW cops have Tasers which are normally non-lethal. Why were they not used?

    Normally maybe, but remember the young Brazilian man, tripping out apparently, who was electrocuted &/or suffocated to death while handcuffed and sprayed. Charges were laid against the police, and officers acquitted.

    I’d rather the bullet thanks.

    He was tasered multiple times and sprayed and suffocated.

    An outrageous case which should have had a very different court outcome.

  41. phoenixRED @ #726 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 4:29 pm

    I am a Windows 10 hold – out

    I wouldn’t go near Windows 10. Not only does it send enormous amounts of personal information to Microsoft and track all your activities, it also has severe bugs in its networking software.

    Windows 10 makes Crikey look like a stable, well-tested platform.

  42. I’m going to be meeting this man in a few weeks, so am interested to hear his views on issues such as wages given his position of extreme privilege.

    One of WA’s highest paid company bosses has restated his opposition to reduced wages for lower-paid workers.

    While pocketing multimillion-dollar salaries, some chief executives have advocated cutting the pay of their workers if Australia is to become more internationally competitive.

    However, Richard Goyder, the $5.5 million-a-year chief executive of Wesfarmers — the country’s biggest private employer through its ownership of Coles, Target, Bunnings and Kmart — says the argument goes counter to his aspirations for Australia.

    “This debate about lowering wages, I don’t get,” he told a breakfast function in Perth today.

    https://thewest.com.au/business/leadership/wesfarmers-boss-richard-goyder-backs-the-little-guy-in-push-to-cut-wages-ng-b88550159z

  43. confessions @ #736 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 4:59 pm

    A Yanchep father who drugged and murdered his two young children to “punish” his wife after she said she wanted to leave him has been sentenced to at least 31 years behind bars.

    Jason Craig Headland, 36, gave his three-year-old son Andreas and five-year-old daughter Zaraiyah-Lily crushed sleeping tablets in juice before murdering them in October 2016.

    https://thewest.com.au/news/crime/father-jason-hedland-imprisoned-for-31-years-drugging-and-murdering-his-two-children-ng-b88550235z

    And go the judge who rejected the man’s pleas that he was stricken with grief that his wife wanted to leave him as the reason he killed his kids by telling him his actions were motivated by hate and selfishness.

    Insufficient punishment.

  45. So what the hell is Mr X doing about the Murray-Darling Theft? He should refuse to give the govt any votes until the situation is dealt with. But he doesn’t have the balls.

  46. P1:

    I use Windows 10 and have had no issues (touch wood).

    I don’t use IE though – that’s a bridge too far even for a non-techie like me.

  48. Looks like BuzzFeed is actually doing some research of its own instead of writing vacuous opinion pieces.

    What a novel idea!

  49. Anton,

    Senator X. was all huff and puff when he was demanding action on the MDB before he would deal with the government over the ABCC legislation. They threw him a few scrapes and he folded. He had a opportunity then to stand up for South Australia and the MDB plan but he rolled over.

    He is all piss and wind.

    Cheers.

  50. Well there you go. Another conservative who doesn’t give a stuff about our institutions, in this case democracy and the will of the people.

    Slade Brockman is content to enter the Senate as a staunch Liberal conservative, revealing yesterday that he would vote with his conscience to retain the current definition of marriage regardless of the result of any plebiscite.

    The 47-year-old father of three, who was endorsed by the party’s State council at the weekend to fill the vacancy left by retiring Chris Back, also does not support a republic.

    https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/new-liberal-senator-will-be-his-own-man-ng-b88545616z

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