YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50

YouGov again calls a tight race on two-party preferred, but only because of preference flows that have the Coalition outperforming their result at the 2016 election.

The third voting intention poll from YouGov again has primary vote numbers that aren’t wildly off beam from the other pollsters, but leans heavily to the Coalition in terms of preference allocation. However, this is less severe than it was in the last poll, so I’ve decided to revert to type in running the two-party result as my headline, at least on this occasion. Whereas the Coalition led 52-48 in the last poll, this time it’s level despite both major parties being unchanged on the primary vote, at 36% for the Coalition and 33% for Labor. However, the Greens are down two points to 10%, which a) brings this result closer into line than other pollsters, and b) would actually have led to you expect movement away from Labor on two-party preferred, if previous election preferences were applied. One Nation is up a point to 8%. Applying 2016 preference flows to these unrounded figures, the result come out at around 52-48 in favour of Labor.

Other findings from the poll:

• Malcolm Turnbull records 45% approval and 47% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is on 42% approval and 47% disapproval, which is better than what both are used to. Also featured are ratings for a number of second-tier political figures, with results of 34-56 for Tony Abbott, 25-38 for Richard Di Natale, 31-44 for Christopher Pyne, 39-52 for Pauline Hanson, 33-43 for Bob Katter and, with the only net positive result, 50-25 for Nick Xenophon.

• Twenty-six per cent say Malcolm Turnbull “represents what the Liberal Party stands for” more than Tony Abbott, 19% the opposite, 22% call it a draw, and 18% say neither does. The respective numbers are 20-19-13-38 for being in touch with the concerns of ordinary Australians, 30-14-14-30 for electability and 23-19-13-35 for strength of leadership.

• Fifty-three per cent say they would support a referendum on establishing a new body representative of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, but it may just be that people like referendums: of those in favour, 38% would vote yes in such a referendum and 15% would vote no. Support was presumably lower among those opposed to a referendum, but the numbers are not provided.

• Thirty-seven per cent would support a referendum proposal to allow dual citizens to run for federal parliament, with 48% opposed.

• Sixty-eight per cent believe women in sport should get the same pay as men, with only 18% opposed. Sixty-four per cent think the AFL officials who resigned over relationships with younger female staff members were right to have done so, with only 17% saying they were wrong to have.

The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Monday, with a sample of 1005.

NOTE ON COMMENTS REDESIGN: As regular users will know by now, we have a new comments facility which looks a lot sharper than what we had before and has a number of welcome new features. It also publishes the results in reverse chronologically, which is not to everybody’s tastes but has been done for good reason, and which you get used to quicker than you might think. Most of all, this has had a spectacular effect on the efficiency with which Crikey’s servers are operating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,097 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50”

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  4. I am:

    (a) predicting Bolt to say that today’s scrum at the magistrate’s court proves Pell will get an unfair trial;
    (b) hopeful, should my prediction prove false, that, under the new system of posts, no one can find this post.

  6. Fifty-three per cent say they would support a referendum on establishing a new body representative of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, but it may just be that people like referendums: of those in favour, 38% would vote yes in such a referendum and 15% would vote no.

    I hadn’t realised this was even in the mix. Recogising indigenous Australians in the Constitution, yes but not establishing a new representative body.

  8. Zeh

    “Zeh
    kezza2 @ #1369 Wednesday, July 26th, 2017 – 2:33 pm

    Seriously, this is bleeding crap.

    I make a post and can only see my posts plus a few others. Refresh, same same.

    Refresh again, half an hour later, and lo and behold up pop other posts, in between, that are pertinent to the discussion, but hidden for a certain amount of time.

    What’s with system? Or is just my browser? Or IPS?

    IOW, WTF is going on?????

    Yeah, I’m not too sure why but the live updates seem to be disabled.
    I suggest you use chrome install ar’s extension http://bit.ly/2uPEZ1U
    Make sure to tick ‘Override HTML comments’ in the extension options and then hit save and refresh pollbludger”

    I don’t know how to do that.

    Thanks, anyway

  9. a r,
    As you state that the ‘bruising’ mark appears after exercise, might I suggest that you get yourself fitted with a good pair of shoes for same. Something you are doing is causing a pressure problem in that place….it seems to me. However, may I also suggest that there may be some relevance wrt your circulation. A bluish tinge may be suggestive of lack of oxygenation of the capillary blood closest to the skin surface. Though if you have just been exercising that would normally suggest that your blood was well-perfused as a result. Are your feet cold or hot afterwards? Sweaty?

    Thinking about your other comments I, as a recent sufferer of Plantar Fasciitis, can pretty much say for sure that the pebbly feeling is related to that. I had to have 2 injections of corticosteroids into my foot to resolve that pain and I suggest you go see your doctor about doing the same. It worked really well.

    My doctor also suggested getting a foot insert to put into my shoes, or even a personalised Orthotic shoe insert. You know, that ‘bruising’ could also be related to the imbalances in your foot, pronation etc.

    But I could be wrong and Diogenes or RhWombat would be better medical authorities than I, a lowly Pharmacist.

  11. Herding for the sake of herding, methodology improvements, or an actual shift in people’s voting intentions. Taking all bets!

  12. I agree that women should get equal pay, and I also think it would be more interesting if major tennis tournaments had 5 set games.

    I couldn’t give a crap what consenting adults do in their spare time and think we are getting a bit obsessive and opinionated about other people’s sex lives. The only time it is a problem (that the rest of us can fuss about) is if a power imbalance is used as coercion.

  13. Question

    “I couldn’t give a crap what consenting adults do in their spare time and think we are getting a bit obsessive and opinionated about other people’s sex lives. ”

    I agree 100%
    Perhaps we’re reverting to Victorian times.

  15. a r @ #1351 Wednesday, July 26th, 2017 – 2:04 pm

    Seeing how pictures work now, would anyone (particularly the small handful of people on here with actual medical backgrounds) care to idly speculate about what’s wrong with my foot?

    Nevermind the weird-looking toenail, that’s an unrelated injury (stubbed it under the corner of a door). And the tape (bottom left) is for plantar fasciitis, also unrelated. That foot has many problems.

    a r

    This is far from my area of expertise, but I’d be wary of too quickly dismissing what you think to be unrelated, eg plantar fasciitis, which I assume someone is taking care of, and they could well be related, in that the treatment of one is triggering the other, and mindful too that there looks to be a lot of tension on the flexor (top side) tendon of that toe too, (perhaps for the photo?). There’s heaps of other stuff to be asked – age, weight, other illnesses, family history, blah blah. But one of the early lessons in diagnostics is not to try and solve a puzzle by settling on a couple of diseases when a single more obtuse one is the real culprit. That exercise / stress is a major trigger seems pretty relevant. I’d be getting more than an x-ray, and would include at least a full blood profile. It may end up an issue for a sports doctor &/or orthotics, I hope so, cos yes, it’s a terrible looking foot. 😉

  16. I am no longer getting the “show new comments” function, and have to refresh the page to see them. The site has also become less responsive.

    I only mention it because I thought this method of reducing bandwidth was the main point of the current experiments? Sorry if this has already been mentioned but a lack of pagination makes it difficult to catch up.

  17. Voice Endeavour
    Herding for the sake of herding, methodology improvements, or an actual shift in people’s voting intentions. Taking all bets!

    There is no way the L-NP are matching the last election. I will take YouGov seriously when it has a plausible result.

  18. 50-50… PFFFT.. without this added, the next Bludger Track would almost mirror the standing one..

    With this in the equation…

    I know I’m missing some obvious thing but this is so far off what we have seen for a year… can a learned one set me straight, as I hang out for the BT and if it was to fall to 51.5-49.5 my old ticker would skip a beat….

  19. Alberici not buying it.

    “Emma Alberici‏Verified account @albericie · 20h20 hours ago

    How & why would a mum secretly lodge a citizenship application for her son & forget to tell him for 11 years? Didn’t she need his ID?

  20. Question @ #16 Wednesday, July 26th, 2017 – 3:02 pm

    I am no longer getting the “show new comments” function, and have to refresh the page to see them. The site has also become less responsive.

    I only mention it because I thought this method of reducing bandwidth was the main point of the current experiments? Sorry if this has already been mentioned but a lack of pagination makes it difficult to catch up.

    I have a brilliant quote function, an edit function, a comment number, and time-from-posting time, new comments load automatically, and all on a pretty pale duck egg blue background.

  22. For a while there was a feature that highlighted the number of new posts since the last refresh or post update. This worked very well and had the advantage of minimising bandwidth usage but it s no longer there.
    It did make a significant beneficial difference in my opinion.

  23. John Boy, as BT goes off primary vote, it will read this as 52-48 to Labor even before it bias-adjusts in their favour, so rest easy.

  24. BK @ #22 Wednesday, July 26th, 2017 – 3:07 pm

    For a while there was a feature that highlighted the number of new posts since the last refresh or post update. This worked very well and had the advantage of minimising bandwidth usage but it s no longer there.
    It did make a significant beneficial difference in my opinion.

    Agreed, they seem to have disabled it. Have thrown up my own instance of wordpress and installed this exact same commenting system to figure out what would be the best options. Disabling the live updates is definitely not one of them…

  31. ItzaDream,
    Oops, sorry, forgot your medical qualifications! Though I see you have given a similar prognosis to mine. Which is reassuring. For me!

  32. ItzaDream @ #15 Wednesday, July 26th, 2017 – 3:01 pm

    I’d be wary of too quickly dismissing what you think to be unrelated, eg plantar fasciitis, which I assume someone is taking care of, and they could well be related, in that the treatment of one is triggering the other

    Point taken. Although the ‘toe suddenly turns purple’ problem actually predates the plantar fasciitis by a good six months at least.

    There’s heaps of other stuff to be asked – age, weight, other illnesses, family history

    34, 68kg, none, family history mainly of heart disease and things related to it (high cholesterol, high blood pressure).

    I’d be getting more than an x-ray, and would include at least a full blood profile.

    Just had the blood test a couple weeks ago, all came back normal.

    And thanks to all for the advice. Sounds like it could be a combination of walking too much (walking being my default daily exercise when I’m not doing something more strenuous like kiteboarding/swimming/biking/tennis), having wide feet (which I do), and wearing bad shoes (though not sure on this, since it’s occurred a few times while barefoot).

    Possibly also relevant is that there’s a broken sesamoid bone in my left, non-purple-turning, foot (from years ago, but I walked on it for several months before actually getting it looked at, so it never healed properly), which tends to make me place more weight on the right.

  33. [
    jenauthor
    Now I know why SKY had this poll on their TV this morning. To the uninitiated, Mal hasn’t lost this one!
    ]
    Wasn’t the very first L-NP 49%? Or was that ALP 49%? It doesn’t matter, the poll has yet to become plausible : )

  35. I can’t see the psephological value in this ‘Respondent Allocated’ type of poll. In a real election you have to number all squares in the HOR, and then by process of elimination you end up with the 2 person face off and so the ultimate winner of the Seat. So how is someone saying to the pollster, ‘I’d put X after Y if a poll was held today’, thus of any worth!?!

  36. lizzie:

    I tried that extension and for me it meant I could never see the most recent comments. I eventually uninstalled it.

  40. Despite referring it to the crikey team – and having quite a few emails back and forward on the issue – I’m still getting reams of unwanted ‘New Comment’ emails.

    Now, if you’d all just stop posting, I wouldn’t have any problems at all…..

  41. Is a stat dec worth much when it’s written by Malcolm Roberts?

    One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts insists he is eligible to sit in Parliament, but is still refusing to release documents proving he has renounced his British citizenship.

    Senator Roberts was born in India and his father was Welsh, but he denies he is a dual citizen.

    He has released a statutory declaration after coming under pressure to clarify his status, due to the resignation of two Greens senators with dual citizenship and Matt Canavan quitting the Cabinet for the same reason.

    In the declaration, Senator Roberts said he had, “analysed if he was a British [United Kingdom] citizen by decent [sic] from my father, who was born in Wales, the United Kingdom, or if I was an Indian citizen”.

    “I can confirm I am not a citizen of the United Kingdom, nor am I a citizen of India,” he wrote.

    But he has not backed that up with any other documents, although he said on Twitter he has them.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-26/malcolm-roberts-denies-being-dual-citizen/8745146

  42. There was an interesting bit from Mark di Stephano on Raf Epstein’s Drive program not so long ago. He described a quite lengthy process he had to go through to get Italian citizenship. More interesting was his report that there was verifiable proof that Malcolm Roberts had travelled on a British passport at least twice.

  43. I’ve always understood that pollsters go with ‘how preferences flowed at the last election’ over ‘how people say they’re going to allocate preferences next time’ because the first is more reliable than the second….possibly because, when it comes to the crunch, people do follow HTVs.

  45. @ citizen – he did not insist he is eligible to sit in parliament. He insists that, as at 21/07/2017, he is not a dual citizen. he very carefully avoided saying that he was eligible, whilst making it look on quick glance like he did say that.

  46. I can’t see the psephological value in this ‘Respondent Allocated’ type of poll. In a real election you have to number all squares in the HOR, and then by process of elimination you end up with the 2 person face off and so the ultimate winner of the Seat. So how is someone saying to the pollster, ‘I’d put X after Y if a poll was held today’, thus of any worth!?!

    YouGov presumes to deal with this by giving respondents an online ballot paper to fill out.

  48. Re, “It also publishes the results in reverse chronologically, which is not to everybody’s tastes but has been done for good reason…” I am not sure that what I see on my Safari web browser on a Mac Book is what folk with different set ups see, but I have a sort by newest, or oldest, or most voted facility just below the blue Post Comment box, which I have just tested and works ok.

  49. ML

    Mark di Stefano gets a lot of crap for being on Buzzfeed, but he gets my vote for being a good and investigative journalist.

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