YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50

YouGov again calls a tight race on two-party preferred, but only because of preference flows that have the Coalition outperforming their result at the 2016 election.

The third voting intention poll from YouGov again has primary vote numbers that aren’t wildly off beam from the other pollsters, but leans heavily to the Coalition in terms of preference allocation. However, this is less severe than it was in the last poll, so I’ve decided to revert to type in running the two-party result as my headline, at least on this occasion. Whereas the Coalition led 52-48 in the last poll, this time it’s level despite both major parties being unchanged on the primary vote, at 36% for the Coalition and 33% for Labor. However, the Greens are down two points to 10%, which a) brings this result closer into line than other pollsters, and b) would actually have led to you expect movement away from Labor on two-party preferred, if previous election preferences were applied. One Nation is up a point to 8%. Applying 2016 preference flows to these unrounded figures, the result come out at around 52-48 in favour of Labor.

Other findings from the poll:

• Malcolm Turnbull records 45% approval and 47% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is on 42% approval and 47% disapproval, which is better than what both are used to. Also featured are ratings for a number of second-tier political figures, with results of 34-56 for Tony Abbott, 25-38 for Richard Di Natale, 31-44 for Christopher Pyne, 39-52 for Pauline Hanson, 33-43 for Bob Katter and, with the only net positive result, 50-25 for Nick Xenophon.

• Twenty-six per cent say Malcolm Turnbull “represents what the Liberal Party stands for” more than Tony Abbott, 19% the opposite, 22% call it a draw, and 18% say neither does. The respective numbers are 20-19-13-38 for being in touch with the concerns of ordinary Australians, 30-14-14-30 for electability and 23-19-13-35 for strength of leadership.

• Fifty-three per cent say they would support a referendum on establishing a new body representative of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, but it may just be that people like referendums: of those in favour, 38% would vote yes in such a referendum and 15% would vote no. Support was presumably lower among those opposed to a referendum, but the numbers are not provided.

• Thirty-seven per cent would support a referendum proposal to allow dual citizens to run for federal parliament, with 48% opposed.

• Sixty-eight per cent believe women in sport should get the same pay as men, with only 18% opposed. Sixty-four per cent think the AFL officials who resigned over relationships with younger female staff members were right to have done so, with only 17% saying they were wrong to have.

The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Monday, with a sample of 1005.

NOTE ON COMMENTS REDESIGN: As regular users will know by now, we have a new comments facility which looks a lot sharper than what we had before and has a number of welcome new features. It also publishes the results in reverse chronologically, which is not to everybody’s tastes but has been done for good reason, and which you get used to quicker than you might think. Most of all, this has had a spectacular effect on the efficiency with which Crikey’s servers are operating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,097 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50”

  1. Roberts clearly thinks he has an exemption from the usual requirements:

    Counter signatory

    In order for your application to be accepted, you will need to have a counter signatory; someone who signs your form to confirm that you are sound of mind. This person needs to know you personally and also needs to be over the age of 18.

    You should post both forms to the border agency when you file your application.

    2) Collect appropriate documents
    You will need several documents in support of your application:

    a) Evidence of your current status:

    Normally your passport itself will be sufficient evidence of your status as a British citizen. If this is not available you will need to produce a copy of your birth certificate or a certificate of registration or naturalisation.

  2. briefly @ #1051 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 11:13 pm

    Roberts clearly thinks he has an exemption from the usual requirements:

    Counter signatory

    In order for your application to be accepted, you will need to have a counter signatory; someone who signs your form to confirm that you are sound of mind. This person needs to know you personally and also needs to be over the age of 18.

    I spotted the problem. 😆

  3. Critically, UK government websites explaining the renunciation process say the date the citizenship stops will be listed on confirmation documents. Senator Roberts has not released these documents.

    So all Roberts has to do to settle this is produce the confirmation documents. Easy

  4. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jul/27/early-talks-on-post-brexit-trade-deal-increasingly-unlikely

    The Brexit negotiations are faltering and the British government’s hopes of opening up talks on a future trade deal with the EU this autumn are increasingly likely to be dashed, the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, has reported back to the bloc’s member states.

    Barnier told ambassadors to the EU that the British government had been unable to provide sufficient clarity on its positions during the last week of talks, leaving him pessimistic about the future.

    Incredible Incompetence!

  5. BIGD…He has certainly deceived himself. He published a copy of a Stat Dec the other day. To my way of thinking, this is automatically self-incriminating. Why produce an SD when you could just produce the actual document of relinquishment? He’s cooked.

  6. imacca
    Critically, UK government websites explaining the renunciation process say the date the citizenship stops will be listed on confirmation documents. Senator Roberts has not released these documents.

    So all Roberts has to do to settle this is produce the confirmation documents. Easy

    Not necessarily.

    If you already have another citizenship that date would be when the application was finalised.

    In this case “reasonable steps” would become the issue, if applicable, and I think the date of submitting the application would be the relevant date.

  7. BIGD…reasonable steps will certainly include paying the fee and obtaining a counter-signature on the application.

    No country is going to revoke citizenship on the strength of an email. At the very least, they will require proof of identity before considering any document relating to citizenship.

  8. briefly
    BIGD…He has certainly deceived himself. He published a copy of a Stat Dec the other day. To my way of thinking, this is automatically self-incriminating. Why produce an SD when you could just produce the actual document of relinquishment? He’s cooked.

    He talked about that saying he away from home and the documents, so did the SD whilst in Canberra consulting with Senate officials.

  9. briefly
    BIGD…reasonable steps will certainly include paying the fee and obtaining a counter-signature on the application.

    No country is going to revoke citizenship on the strength of an email. At the very least, they will require proof of identity before considering any document relating to citizenship.

    Agree.

    I think Malcolm might be wishing we had Sharia Law.

    I renounce you. I renounce you. I renounce you.

  10. ,q>In this case “reasonable steps” would become the issue, if applicable, and I think the date of submitting the application would be the relevant date.,q>

    So long as the application is in the proper form with the proper supporting documentation and all submitted in a reasonable timeframe.

    He asked the question a month before nominations closed. then did nothing until 3 days before nominations closed?? I dont think its reasonable to expect he could he get the proper application supported, submitted and decided on in 3 days. Will be an interesting one if it does get to court.

  11. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/russia-syria-50-years-half-century-air-base-deal-putin-assad-regime-president-rebels-isis-a7863031.html

    Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a law ratifying a deal with the Syrian government to allow Russia to keep its airbase in Syria for almost half a century.

    The original deal, signed in Damascus in January, set out the terms under which Russia can use its Hmeymim air base in Latakia Province, which it has used to carry out air strikes against forces opposing President Bashar al-Assad.

    Syria remains a Russian tributary.

  12. Roberts losing his seat in senate would be delicious. What a crack pot that guy is!? The Italian guy from Coalition is no big loss either, considering he is basically a lobbyist for mining magnates. His excuses are bullshit.

    I wonder how One Nation’s donated plane issue is going along since Labor was taking it to court. Can’t put away the pop corn in this parliament that’s for sure.

  13. It’s actually not difficult to renounce UK citizenship. There is a paper-based process that applicants can follow. “Reasonable steps” would at the very least include following the process set out. At least in part, this process is set up to protect applicants – to make sure their identity is proven and that the application is validly submitted. The requirement for the payment of a fee is also significant. The fee must have been paid. The question is when was it paid!

  14. briefly
    It’s actually not difficult to renounce UK citizenship. There is a paper-based process that applicants can follow. “Reasonable steps” would at the very least include following the process set out. At least in part, this process is set up to protect applicants – to make sure their identity is proven and that the application is validly submitted. The requirement for the payment of a fee is also significant. The fee must have been paid. The question is when was it paid!

    From my experience when dealing with the British Civil Service payment is taken when the application is received and thus becomes a time stamp, if paid by credit/debit card, for the beginning of the process.

  15. Briefly,

    the Russians, once they have Syria settled, will cause Lebonon into play. They may have no intentions but the Syrians will.

    the Israelis will be watching very closely.

  16. CTar1

    I’m sure you’re right. Putin will meddle knowing the reverberations will be felt in Western Europe. Once again, the ME is a proxy theatre for rivalry between Russia and other European powers.

  17. Briefly

    [Labour tries to walk both sides of the street on the route to Brexit….]

    As they should.

    If we get anything out of their silly move it’s a bonus for us.

  18. Roberts’ explanation sounds like the Cullerton defence. But my conviction was subsequently overturned. Sorry pal you had a conviction at the time of your nomination. Roberts at best had started the process to renounce so that at the time of his nomination he was still a UK citizen.

    On whether what he did prior to the election constitutes “all reasonable steps” I would think that doing step 1 of a number of steps hardly constitutes taking “all reasonable steps”. In my humble unlawyerly opinion he’s gawn!

  19. Venezuela’s Maduro still mad.

    He’s having a referendum but is trying to make the general public think it’s an election (if there was an election he’d be out of office).

    Madness!

  20. I’ve just discovered that the page refreshes as soon as I type a word in the comment panel, even if I don’t post the comment, so all good for me for now, until someone sorts out the mess.

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