YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50

YouGov again calls a tight race on two-party preferred, but only because of preference flows that have the Coalition outperforming their result at the 2016 election.

The third voting intention poll from YouGov again has primary vote numbers that aren’t wildly off beam from the other pollsters, but leans heavily to the Coalition in terms of preference allocation. However, this is less severe than it was in the last poll, so I’ve decided to revert to type in running the two-party result as my headline, at least on this occasion. Whereas the Coalition led 52-48 in the last poll, this time it’s level despite both major parties being unchanged on the primary vote, at 36% for the Coalition and 33% for Labor. However, the Greens are down two points to 10%, which a) brings this result closer into line than other pollsters, and b) would actually have led to you expect movement away from Labor on two-party preferred, if previous election preferences were applied. One Nation is up a point to 8%. Applying 2016 preference flows to these unrounded figures, the result come out at around 52-48 in favour of Labor.

Other findings from the poll:

• Malcolm Turnbull records 45% approval and 47% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is on 42% approval and 47% disapproval, which is better than what both are used to. Also featured are ratings for a number of second-tier political figures, with results of 34-56 for Tony Abbott, 25-38 for Richard Di Natale, 31-44 for Christopher Pyne, 39-52 for Pauline Hanson, 33-43 for Bob Katter and, with the only net positive result, 50-25 for Nick Xenophon.

• Twenty-six per cent say Malcolm Turnbull “represents what the Liberal Party stands for” more than Tony Abbott, 19% the opposite, 22% call it a draw, and 18% say neither does. The respective numbers are 20-19-13-38 for being in touch with the concerns of ordinary Australians, 30-14-14-30 for electability and 23-19-13-35 for strength of leadership.

• Fifty-three per cent say they would support a referendum on establishing a new body representative of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, but it may just be that people like referendums: of those in favour, 38% would vote yes in such a referendum and 15% would vote no. Support was presumably lower among those opposed to a referendum, but the numbers are not provided.

• Thirty-seven per cent would support a referendum proposal to allow dual citizens to run for federal parliament, with 48% opposed.

• Sixty-eight per cent believe women in sport should get the same pay as men, with only 18% opposed. Sixty-four per cent think the AFL officials who resigned over relationships with younger female staff members were right to have done so, with only 17% saying they were wrong to have.

The poll was conducted online from Thursday to Monday, with a sample of 1005.

NOTE ON COMMENTS REDESIGN: As regular users will know by now, we have a new comments facility which looks a lot sharper than what we had before and has a number of welcome new features. It also publishes the results in reverse chronologically, which is not to everybody’s tastes but has been done for good reason, and which you get used to quicker than you might think. Most of all, this has had a spectacular effect on the efficiency with which Crikey’s servers are operating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,097 comments on “YouGov-Fifty Acres: 50-50”

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  1. confessions @ #746 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 5:08 pm

    P1:

    I use Windows 10 and have had no issues (touch wood).

    Good luck to you! My partner upgraded (against my advice) and has had problems with Wifi ever since. This is one of those Windows 10 “known problems” that many people have found, but which appears to have no solution. Actually, I did find one – disable all Wifi security and it works like a dream!

  3. The boss of Coles tells us what 99% of the population already know. Is Scott Morrison bothering to listen?

    The boss of Australia’s second biggest supermarket chain Coles, John Durkan, has warned that many Australian families are being forced to trade off fresh food and meat in favour of much cheaper groceries during their weekly shop as skyrocketing energy bills and stagnant wages growth crimps household incomes.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/families-squeezed-by-rising-cost-of-living-pressures-coles-chief/news-story/54bb4394319fe50c4b8b2f295893cc0d

  4. Yesterday Bill Shorten was interviewed by Jon Faine ABC Radio Melbourne
    his interview starts at 06:00 minutes and finishes at 24:30 minutes

    Victorians might want to listen to the response of Andrew Ford of Volunteer Fire Brigades to claims by Peter Marshall from the firefighters union the previous day
    Andrew Ford starts at 1:11:00 and finishes at 1:16:30

    http://www.abc.net.au/radio/melbourne/programs/mornings/mornings/8725858
    – – – – – – – – – – – –

    The interview with Peter Marshall from firefighters union
    starts 37 or 39 minutes finishes at 46 minutes

    Interview with Daniel Andrews re Dying with Dignity and Murray Darling Basin water
    starts 05:00 finishes at 29 minutes

    http://www.abc.net.au/radio/melbourne/programs/mornings/mornings/8722408

  5. This is part of the Nats deal to make Turnbull PM. Bloody criminal to steal water.
    *****************************************************************************
    A secret recording of federal Water Minister Barnaby Joyce skiting about the alleged theft of water by irrigators from the Murray-Darling Basin has increased calls for him to be stripped of the water portfolio.

    After publicly likening the alleged theft to cattle or sheep rustling on Wednesday morning and saying the law should be enforced, Mr Joyce was secretly recorded rubbishing the ABC Four Corners report on Thursday night while talking to irrigators in a Shepparton pub.

    In doing so, he effectively confirmed he had made Malcolm Turnbull take water away from the environment portfolio and give it to him so he could protect upstream interests.

    “We have taken water, put it back into agriculture, so we could look after you and make sure we don’t have the greenies running the show basically sending you out the back door, and that was a hard ask,” he said in the recording.

    “A couple of nights ago on Four Corners, you know what that’s all about? It’s about them trying to take more water off you, trying to create a calamity. A calamity for which the solution is to take more water off you, shut more of your towns down.”

    His comments are especially incendiary in South Australia, the government of which is leading calls for a judicial inquiry into the alleged theft by NSW cotton growers and the role of NSW bureaucrats in facilitating it.

    But following the recording, the SA government echoed a call earlier this week by key SA independent Senator Nick Xenophon that Mr Joyce be stripped of the water portfolio.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/secret-recording-sparks-calls-to-strip-barnaby-joyce-of-water-ministry-20170727-gxk4nh#ixzz4o105IPsP
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  7. Lizzie:

    That is disgraceful from Joyce. Where is the national interest focus by this govt? Oh of course, it’s all about their own bloody jobs.

  10. Lizzie

    “A secret recording of federal Water Minister Barnaby Joyce skiting about the alleged theft of water by irrigators from the Murray-Darling Basin has increased calls for him to be stripped of the water portfolio.”

    You’t think he’d keep his big fat mouth shut, in a public forum, wouldn’t you?

    But, nah, gotta brag.

    Thinks he Untouchable. Look out Barnacle, that’s an express train, heading right your way. Dickhead.

  17. @a r
    FYI, using spoiler’s defeats the word-count limit as well.
    Successfully posted BK’s entire dawn patrol in 1 comment using spoilers, however again, triggered comment moderation

  18. ‘fess – Also have been using Win 10 for months with no real problem.

    And Chrome.

    How is the ‘C+’ thing installed?

  20. kezza2

    No wonder Mal is trying to keep the conditions of his agreement with Nats secret. Makes you wonder what else is hidden, doesn’t it.

  26. Mark Anning‏ @1EarthMedia · 9h9 hours ago

    Barnaby Joyce still owns 2 investment properties in proposed NSW coal seam gas field at Pilliga

    Conflict of Interest?

  27. lizzie

    Didn’t even think of the Special Deal made by Mal with the Nats.

    Makes sense, now.

    Thanks for the reminder.

    Do they even care about the future?

  28. @ar FttN, but as you can see quite close to a node.
    Ping is bad not just because of the VDSL, I’m across the ditch in northern Tas.

  36. Bit rough on poor ole Barnyard. If your Nat MP can’t act as if they’re above the law in order to help their supporters break it then why have Nat MPs in the first place?

  37. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-27/new-plan-to-dam-was-fitzroy-river-and-create-cotton-powerhouse/8743228?sf101433145=1

    A New South Wales-based company has put forward a new plan to dam Western Australia’s Fitzroy River.

    Key points:
    •KIMCO’s plan is to construct a dam near Dimond Gorge
    •The $6 billion proposal would see Fitzroy water irrigating 300,000 hectares of grain, cotton and horticulture
    •Environmentalists want legal protection for the Fitzroy River

    AM has obtained a leaked copy of the detailed proposal from retired NSW cotton farmer and KIMCO founder John Logan.

    The document argues it could transform the Kimberley into a cotton powerhouse rivalling New South Wales and Queensland.

    But environmentalists, like Martin Pritchard from local environmental group Environs Kimberley, warned it would destroy the river, which they want protected by law.

  38. @kezza, a few select places got FttP during the early phases. Alas not here.
    And I don’t accept being called Tasmanian 😛
    Only moved down a couple years ago. From central NSW originally

  41. lizzie @ #781 Thursday, July 27th, 2017 – 5:57 pm

    kezza2

    They can’t see further than their next paycheck (or their profits from their Trust).

    Where did we go wrong, Lizzie?

    Is it because we care, more than we want?
    Are we’re just happy with what we have?
    And don’t have the mean gene?

    I really wonder about some of my fellow men. Never content. Always want more. At the expense of everyone else.

    And then they join the Libs.

  47. Eh Zeh, I’m sure you’ll fit in, sooner or later.

    From family history stuff, Taswegians have a lot to give. And you’ll soon forget you ever were a New South Welshman, or woman.

    Have fun. Ping!

  50. GG:

    The preselection choice doesn’t seem to be much of a choice at all.

    The battle for preselection is being fought between Professor Katie Allen, an internationally recognised paediatric gastroenterologist and allergist, and Rory Grant, a well-regarded staffer to federal Minister Christopher Pyne.

Comments are closed.

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