Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research moves a point to Labor, as Newspoll has another week off.

Nothing doing from Newspoll this week, but The Guardian reports Essential Research is back to showing Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, after four weeks at 52-48. A slip of the keyboard at The Guardian appears to have deprived us with a primary vote figure for Labor, which was at 36% last week, but we are told that the Coalition is down one to 38%, the Greens are up one to 11%, One Nation is steady on 7% and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady on 3%. The full report should be on the Essential Research website later today. (UPDATE: Full report here; Labor primary vote turned out to be unchanged on 36%.) Also featured:

• Forty-three per cent of respondents felt Tony Abbott should resign from parliament, compared with only 18% who wanted him in the ministry and 14% who felt he should remain on the back bench.

• Support for same sex marriage rated three points higher than when the question was last asked a month ago, at 63%, with opposition down a point to 25%. Fifty-nine per cent wanted the matter to be determined by a plebiscite compared with 29% who favoured it being determined by parliament, compared with 61% and 27% in the previous poll.

• On the question of housing affordability, 74% supported limitations on foreign buyers, 56% allowing to downsize their homes to contribute to their superannuation, 44% bans on interest-only loans for property investors, 44% allowing young buyers to access their superannuation, and 43% the removal of negative gearing. Sixty-six per cent consider housing unaffordable in their area for someone on an average income, versus 25% for affordable, and 73% believed it had become less affordable over the past few years.


• I had a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday on YouGov’s arrival on the local scene, and the state of the Australian polling industry in general.

• The Australia Institute has taken a stab at predicting the complexion of the Senate after the next election, based on polling trends. Its projection for a normal half-Senate election suggests nothing much would change.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has published information-packed research papers on the rate and demographics of voter turnout, informal voting, and the impact of the new Senate system with respect to above and below the line voting rates and the number of boxes filled out.

Sarah Vogler of the Courier-Mail reports Queensland’s Liberal National Party have been conducting polling of the marginal inner Brisbane seat of Maiwar, created in the redistribution from abolished Indooroopilly and Mount Coot-tha, to gauge how badly they would be damaged in such areas by a preference deal with One Nation. No results are provided, but an unnamed LNP source calls the poll a “dumb move”, which has had the effect of “unnecessarily telegraphing the party’s intentions”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,506 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Rational Leftist:

    I completely forgot SA’s quirks. Home states for Bernadi and Xenophon means the Libs will have a chance of being hit at either end. Thought Xenophon will pull right leaning Labor voters. Especially if he pulls the same 25% of votes he did at the Fed election, that into winning lower house seats territory.

  2. Ides

    Xenophon might do that to right-leaning Labor voters. I won’t discount that possibility either. In fact, it’s possible that some disaffected Labor voters, who are sick of this government but would never vote Liberal, would give him a chance.

    One other thing that also throws confusion into the mix is which way the NX preferences go. While they went heavily to Labor last year, it might be different this time around (especially if the anti-incumbent feeling is a driver there.)

    Also, I am generally interested in how NX will go this time because it will be an election where Xenophon isn’t running, as well as his name not being in the party name itself. It’s possible that not having Nick Xenophon’s name on ballots might slightly dampen their votes.

  3. IoM

    I completely forgot SA’s quirks.

    A big forget. {grin}

    Some of the ‘way out there’ people (think ‘put your left foot in, put your left foot out’, and others) SA has sent to the Federal Parliament have amazed, appalled and entertained over the years.

  4. “Thought Xenophon will pull right leaning Labor voters.”
    You’d have to be a pretty stupid and ill-informed labor leaning voter to consider X an option.

  5. The issue with the Liberals is that they hate our children.

    That may seem an unreasonable statement, but have look at what they do rather than what they say. It is easy to say something and deceive but actions speak to what they really believe and what they want to achieve.

    I cannot think of one thing that the liberals have done since John Howard to the current day that is not destructive to the following generations, apart from the gun buyback. I can start enumerating the destruction, and I am sure that others on PB can add to it but I would love to see someone show where they have done something that will leave a better Australia for future generations.

    Yes, you can blame Shorten and all the previous Labor leaders, but it gets tiresome hearing the same lies over and over again.

    They have repeatedly damaged the economy, left huge debts, destroyed industries without encouraging new ones that will last, destroyed water systems, made power more expensive and unreliable, made jobs insecure and lowered pay, hurt the health industry etc., etc.

    Of course the biggest damage is their complicity with climate criminals and sabotaged all avenues of reducing carbon emission.

    All in all, their actions tell the story of a group of people who hate our children and want to leave a smoking wreck of a country as their legacy.

  6. Some of the ‘way out there’ people (think ‘put your left foot in, put your left foot out’, and others) SA has sent to the Federal Parliament have amazed, appalled and entertained over the years.

    Same could be said of all the other states. You all send your weirdos and reactionaries.

  7. Ctari:
    Dont make me draw up a list of SA pollies in the good, the bad and ugly categories. I might ruin BK’s lazy Saturday.

    Rationial Leftist:
    True, SA Best is a mostly unknown quantity at this stage. I wonder if Antony Green might give us such a preview in his election commentary. Where does SA Best preferences go, where NXT go at the Federal? My understanding was that depending if it was a Labor seat, generally the preferences went to Labor, where as in Lib seats it was a little bit different as NXT ended up in the last two parties running and their votes didnt necessarily split (ie preference choices are harder to find).

    (Also, if he reads this, congrats the OA)

  8. CTar1
    Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 10:13 am
    Am I right in assuming that a large battery is much quicker in supplying the short term power boost to stabilise the network than a hydro system would be?

    Yes with a hydro system it takes time to open the valve so there is a physical limit to the response time.

  9. RL

    I guess you’re right. My ‘state’ is currently responsible for putting Australia’s laziest politician in the Fed Parl – Zed Seselja.

  10. IOM

    The LNP should be scared. The age care scandal normally would see polls plummet and voters looking for alternatives. A typical long term government problem.

  11. Frednk

    Ta. I thought that flicking the switch on a ‘battery’ would be instantaneous while starting more water going down for hydro and waiting for the generation rate to steady before letting it lose would take a bit of time.

  12. Guytaur:

    I dont see the Aged Care scandal going that badly for the government. I dont see it changing that many votes. I do however see changes to Super pissing off a lot of Liberal types.

  13. IOM

    Yes. Thats what should scare the LNP.

    Normally a scandal like that in a long term government is enough to see massive swings. Not happening. This means voters think the LNP would be worse at the crisis management and solutions

  14. Guytaur:
    I dont follow your logic. I’m saying AVEO wont change votes. The super changes will, and Labor has much stricter changes to super/negative gearing etc than the Coalition. These voters arent going to vote Labor.

  15. IOM

    My point is that normally such a scandal would see voters change from Labor to LNP.

    They are not doing this. Thus a very bad sign for the LNP

  16. Reuters:

    (And as predicted as cheaper competition looms.)

    Registrations of Tesla Inc vehicles in California, by far the largest market of the luxury electric car maker, fell 24 percent in April from a year ago, according to data from IHS Markit.

    The findings come as investors worry that demand for Tesla’s luxury Model S sedan is waning ahead of the mass market Model 3 launch.

  17. Looks like Centrelink debacle with me again, it seems they put me on the wrong code and did not understand the 2 year return to work policy, so everyone involved is going to get them a nasty little letter next week, for the 3rd time in about a year.

  18. @johnb78

    What’s the difference between Mark Latham and the NSW electricity grid?
    -The NSW electricity grid hasn’t been publicly owned since 2015

  19. Periodically, a fact is so self-evident that to state it can make its obviousness seem startling. This, for example: There is no force in public life more destructive than Tony Abbott.

    Absolutely startling in its obvious wrong-headedness.

    Abbott is was and always will be nothing. He has been the same pointless jerk since at least his uni days and probably longer. Pointless jerks like him are a dime a dozen. They are pests and can be destructive on the small scale, but their wrecking is usually well constrained by good people simply treating them as the useless twats they are and keeping them as far away from any position where they can do real damage as possible.

    So no Tony Abbott is not nearly the most destructive force in public life. The most destructive force in public life is a right that has abandoned any sense of responsibility to pursue power at any cost.

    Abbott is merely a symptom of the same malaise that brought us Brexit and Trump. The right and especially the media that enables it simply doesn’t give a fuck what it destroys in pursuit of power.

    They happily deny science, they attack and victimise the week, they promote pure nonsense to the gullible to divide and conquer. Scumbags like that have no trouble at all with using a pointless jerk like Abbott to advance their war.

    Every single Liberal that helped advance Abbott in the party, every single one of them that stood with him in his efforts to wreck the joint, every single member of the media that promoted or excused him. All of them are much more culpable than Abbott. If it hadn’t been Tony they just would have found another psychopath to do the job (like Trump). They are the most destructive force in public life. Every single last one of them needs to be flushed out.

  20. Flicking through the world press (BBC, CNN, France24, etc) I can’t see ‘front page’ coverage of SA and Musk’s big battery.

    The only mention I saw anywhere near the top was in an article about Tesla’s current share value –

    “Separately, the company said it had won an Australian contract to install the world’s biggest grid-scale battery.”

    But JG is on the front page of CNN –

    Former Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard speaks to Christiane Amanpour about her work as Chair of the Global Partnership for Education.

  21. .
    ratsak @ #1373 Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 2:18 pm

    Every single Liberal that helped advance Abbott in the party, every single one of them that stood with him in his efforts to wreck the joint, every single member of the media that promoted or excused him.

    Yes, they are all culpable to varying degrees. But there is a sheer malevolence to Abbott that means that even now, when he no longer has much support from either his colleagues or from the media, Abbott can still damage the political fabric of Australia.

    He is still the “golden man-child” of a significant chunk of conservative voters. Abbott articulates their rage and hatred. Political debate in Australia will not recover till he is expunged for good.

  22. Carrickalinga, SA. (A cleanup post of leftovers from yesterday evening)


    Around these parts they like to call it ‘Mediterranean’, not ‘desolate’.

    Are ‘they’ real estate agents?



    I’d call Carrickalinga secluded rather than desolate. Lots of holiday homes, lovely beach and it’s pretty good for daytrips on the Fleurieu while you’re there. I assume it’s still the 5 minute drive to Normanville for ice creams or fish and chips, unless anything has opened up there recently

    I’m comforted by the idea that fish and chips are available nearby.



    The Nth African part of the Med. ?

    Got it – like the Libyian coast minus AK47s.

  23. BK:

    I have watched the first ep of the Handmaid’s Tale and found it utterly compelling viewing. I tried reading the book some years ago, but found it too hard going with Offred’s constant flashbacks and going back into the past and gave up without finishing. The TV version is handling the changes between past and present much better IMO.

  24. The secret to Tony Abbott’s enduring political success and his ability to continuously keep prevailing, is simple. He is a master of, thinking on your feet, and ‘carefully-scripted’ political rhetoric. If not for that journalist’s eye for an emotive grab, he would have been discarded by the system long ago.

  25. Analysis: Putin and Trump, cut from the same cloth?

    Richard Wolffe

    As they leaned deeply towards one another in Hamburg, it was all too easy to see and hear the similarities between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Trump said it was “an honor” to be with Putin, who gushed that he was “delighted to meet” Trump.

    “We look forward to a lot of very positive things happening for Russia and for the United States and for everybody concerned,” Trump offered. You can only wonder at the scale of conservative outrage if Barack Obama had hoped first for Russian happiness, and second for American success.

    “America first” takes second place when Vladimir is sitting close to Donald.

    “We spoke over the phone with you several times,” Putin replied. “But phone conversations are never enough, definitely.” How true. In any long-distance relationship, you need something more physical to make it real. Along with a team of collaborators with curiously close ties throughout a big election and its aftermath.

    It’s tempting to think that Trump and Putin are cut from the same cloth.

    They both like to style themselves as strongmen…

    Read the full piece:

  26. Why building a gigafactory in South Australia could make sense for Tesla
    (Note: there are already two battery factories to be built in Australia – one in Darwin and one in Townsville)
    1) Demand
    a) Battery demand is not like demand for vehicles, for which Australia is a small market, it covers electricity storage for domestic, electric cars and trucks and the grid
    b) E.g. Tesla will be presenting their prototype electric semi in September. It is suggested that each semi will have a range of about 1000miles and a battery size of 1 MW. This is about 5 or 6 tonne of batteries –per truck. Thus the equivalent of the 100MW battery they are going to build at Jamestown is equivalent to 100 semis. It is a stretch to imagine how many tonnes of batteries would be required to electrify just the transport sector alone.
    c) If Tesla can build batteries locally at scale, this will give them a huge advantage in the Australian market for grid, domestic and transport battery supply.
    d) Tesla has estimated it would take 100 gigafactories to satisfy world wide demand for lithium ion batteries. It would seem logical that Australia would get a guernsey for one or more of them.
    2) Resources
    a) The two major raw material requirements for lithium ion batteries are lithium and cobalt. Australia has arguably the best reserves of Lithium (in the Pilbara) and cobalt – wait for it – on Eyre Peninsula
    3) Logistics
    a) SA is between the main supply of raw materials e.g. lithium from the Pilbara either by train from Darwin or by ship, and cobalt on Eyre Peninsula and the main market i.e. Adelaide and eastwards
    b) Locations such as Whyalla and Port Augusta or north of Adelaide have abundant land, workforce, and electricity infrastructure. Although Gigafactories are ultimately self sufficient in renewables on completion, having an ongoing grid connection would be useful during construction and for getting maximum value out of their significant renewable infrastructure
    4) Politics
    a) Capitalise on the Jamestown demo site, and the positive relationship with the SA government
    P.S. If Jay Weatherill can prise a Letter of Intent out of Elon Musk before the next election, Steve Marshall will be looking for a new job.

  27. Citizen

    This seems fair dinkum – what next?

    The article mentions that the ‘proposer’ got an unfavourable mention after an ICAC hearing re a press release for the stock exchange but cleared a hearing so that probably counts as a ‘straight arrow’ if you’re involved with coal mining in NSW.

  28. I was agreeing wholeheartedly with the Saturday Paper editorial – until i read Ratsak’s comment. Now I agree even more wholeheartedly with Ratsak @#1372. This is not unusual. Ratsak for President – Now!

  29. Does Elon Musk live in Australia? If not he seems to spend a lot of time in Oz. I’d love to see if I could get him to do a talk over here seeing as we are 80+% powered by renewable energy and the state govt wants to build a wave energy centre of excellence here.

  30. ‘fess

    Does Elon Musk live in Australia? If not he seems to spend a lot of time in Oz.

    Travelling salesman, good to go where ever he can hawk his kit. Especially if a sale is ‘big’ on the publicity side.

  31. rhwombat @ #1383 Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 3:55 pm

    I was agreeing wholeheartedly with the Saturday Paper editorial – until i read Ratsak’s comment. Now I agree even more wholeheartedly with Ratsak @#1372. This is not unusual. Ratsak for President – Now!

    Actually, seen from the appropriate perspective, they are both right.

    Abbott is a small man, a chronic underachiever. But he is also a great destroyer, punching well above his weight. When we has a boxer, I believe he would simply jump into the ring with fists flailing, uncaring about how much damage he was doing to himself. Sometimes he lost, but often he won because his opponents were simply unwilling to accept the damage that Abbott himself was willing to take. It wasn’t a sport to him – he fought for blood. His political career has followed much the same path.

  32. On reflection, I think that the election of Il Douche in the US has blown the whole Fascist/Tory/Neo-Lib/Neo-Con/Rupertarian/Randroid project. Gollum the cycling Smeagol was just the head of the pustule. Government of the Majority by the Lackeys for the 1% will become impossible in working democracies with the ability to see past the Bullshit Curtain.

    By 2020 it will be: Shorten’s ALP in Oz, Corbyn’s LP in UK, Macron’s EM in France, Merkel’s CDU in Germany and either Warren or Harris leading the Democrats to the US Presidency (having taken the US House and Senate in 2018). Putin, Xi, Erdogan and whichever clone of Netanyahu is next will persist – ’cause they have total control of propaganda media, and Modi will still be able to harness enough xenophobia to persist despite not having total control (’cause it’s India, Jake). Showers of rainbow unicorns and even-toed ungulates will persist as aviation hazards.

  33. A significant reason for Abbott’s survival today lies in the hands of John Howard. If Abbott wasn’t constantly protected by Howard he’d have no doubt gone the way of the Mal Broughs, Ian Campbells and Joe Hockeys and would not be in parliament today.

  34. Player One @ #1387 Saturday, July 8, 2017 at 4:11 pm

    Where can I get some of what you’re smoking?

    This sort of jibe, not only by you, but by many posters in the continuing ‘Energy War’ on here makes me scroll.

    What could be informative is turned into just an argument winning contest.

  35. Rhwombat

    I agree that watching the effect of Trump on and in the US, and his ‘diplomacy’ efforts to other countries, has somewhat dampened down the enthusiasm world-wide for politicians of his ilk and also those spouting ‘more austerity’ rhetoric.

  36. Musk seems a lot like Branson – a larger than life character, bit of a playboy, a self publicist and essentially an entrepreneur with a good talent for spotting innovations that can be commercialised.

    The world probably needs more Musks and Bransons and fewer Murdochs.

  37. Another agent of social change departs.

    Ms. Michaels, who over the years worked as a civil-rights organizer, New York cabdriver, technical editor, oral historian and Japanese restaurateur, did not coin “Ms.,” nor did she ever claim to have done so.

    But, working quietly, with little initial support from the women’s movement, she was midwife to the term, ushering it back into being after a decades-long slumber — a process she later described as “a timid eight-year crusade.”

    “Apparently, it was in use in stenographic books for a while,” Ms. Michaels said in an interview for this obituary in 2016. “I had never seen it before: It was kind of arcane knowledge.”

  38. CTar1

    However, I read this earlier today that says his prime target for manufacturing outside the USA is set by his vehicle sales, so two factories in Europe was his aim as recently as January this year –

    He is also finalising a deal with the Chinese. Musk already sells a billions dollars worth of cars in China, and by manufacturing in China he can avoid 25% of sales tax.
    I think Musks’s prime interest in Australia is not ev’s but the solar and grid storage markets.
    Australia is an excellent place to get things moving on this front because of high power prices.
    Also Musk is not afraid of taking on new projects. If he thinks there is a case for a Gigafactory in Australia, he will likely just decide to do it. That’ll just be this mornings decision. In the afternoon he will be thinking about his next set of space launches ow whatever. He won’t be commissioning a bunch of “experts” to do a review!
    It’s a dead cert that Jay Weatherill is pushing the facts pretty much as I have presented them.

  39. essentially an entrepreneur with a good talent for spotting innovations that can be commercialised.

    Reading Musk’s Wiki entry that’s how I’d describe him too.

    And I agree the world definitely needs less Murdochs, who in my view have done very little if anything for society at large.

  40. Musk is totally driven by the idea of colonising space and protecting the planet. He does this by thinking as an engineer, and from first principles. e.g. Rockets that can land and be recycled, the machine that builds the machine, breaking down the production process and iterative improvement, roof solar panels that look like normal terracotta tiles, electric cars that perform better and are safer than any other production vehicles on the planet, etc.

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