Nothing doing from Newspoll this week, but The Guardian reports Essential Research is back to showing Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, after four weeks at 52-48. A slip of the keyboard at The Guardian appears to have deprived us with a primary vote figure for Labor, which was at 36% last week, but we are told that the Coalition is down one to 38%, the Greens are up one to 11%, One Nation is steady on 7% and the Nick Xenophon Team is steady on 3%. The full report should be on the Essential Research website later today. (UPDATE: Full report here; Labor primary vote turned out to be unchanged on 36%.) Also featured:
• Forty-three per cent of respondents felt Tony Abbott should resign from parliament, compared with only 18% who wanted him in the ministry and 14% who felt he should remain on the back bench.
• Support for same sex marriage rated three points higher than when the question was last asked a month ago, at 63%, with opposition down a point to 25%. Fifty-nine per cent wanted the matter to be determined by a plebiscite compared with 29% who favoured it being determined by parliament, compared with 61% and 27% in the previous poll.
• On the question of housing affordability, 74% supported limitations on foreign buyers, 56% allowing to downsize their homes to contribute to their superannuation, 44% bans on interest-only loans for property investors, 44% allowing young buyers to access their superannuation, and 43% the removal of negative gearing. Sixty-six per cent consider housing unaffordable in their area for someone on an average income, versus 25% for affordable, and 73% believed it had become less affordable over the past few years.
Elsewhere:
• I had a paywalled article in Crikey yesterday on YouGov’s arrival on the local scene, and the state of the Australian polling industry in general.
• The Australia Institute has taken a stab at predicting the complexion of the Senate after the next election, based on polling trends. Its projection for a normal half-Senate election suggests nothing much would change.
• The Australian Electoral Commission has published information-packed research papers on the rate and demographics of voter turnout, informal voting, and the impact of the new Senate system with respect to above and below the line voting rates and the number of boxes filled out.
• Sarah Vogler of the Courier-Mail reports Queensland’s Liberal National Party have been conducting polling of the marginal inner Brisbane seat of Maiwar, created in the redistribution from abolished Indooroopilly and Mount Coot-tha, to gauge how badly they would be damaged in such areas by a preference deal with One Nation. No results are provided, but an unnamed LNP source calls the poll a “dumb move”, which has had the effect of “unnecessarily telegraphing the party’s intentions”.
One good thing being overseas ,get in early
That unnamed LNP source is a moron or thinks everyone else is. That the LNP would be working out whether a PHON deal in QLD was a net win or loss was clear from when the Federal election results came in , based on their behaviour last time around , and then reinforced by how they played the WA Election. And that clearly involves working out which suburban / regionals it wins you , which metro Sears it costs you and which seats PHON could potentially take from you.
This is like complaining that someone is telegraphing that I would like to continue breathing.
Not hard to see how this could backfire.
But also not hard to understand why the LNP wanted to do something to find out what can be expected when at the last election –
* Indooroopilly was held by the sitting LNP member but with a swing of 12.8% to Labor, and
* Mt Coot-ha was lost by the LNP to Labor with a swing of 7.9%.
A bleary good morning all. More from Tony Abbott. A little bit of constructive internal criticism is healthy for any organisation. Only Labor splits.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-03/liberals-deny-abbotts-accusation-of-haemorrhaging-members/8674756
And disunity is not death. It is a healthy diversity of opinions. The Liberals do not have to be able to manage themselves in order to manage the country. Comparisons with Rudd/Gillard are sooooo unfair. Let the good governing continue!
Westconnex motorway has been carefully planned and thought out. It is not a giant state sponsored financial gift to the former Leightons after their PPP roads went belly up. Noooo risk to NSW taxpayers at all.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/westconnex-connection-to-sydney-airport-remains-without-plans-or-funding-20170703-gx3p6i.html
Further on Westconnex
“”Although a high level presentation of the masterplan has been presented to RMS, formal costs are significantly higher than the original strategic estimate of $800 million, and the rail component remains unfunded.”
And it certainly would not have been a better idea to build metro rail all the way to Wooloongong and Badgeries Creek for the same money. Comparisons between Westconnex and the SnowJob II hydro scheme are very unfair. Yes let the good governing continue. Have a good day all.
Trump Is So Unpopular That He Has To Sneak Into Britain To Hide From Protesters
The British government has been alerted that Trump may sneak into Britain with only 24 hours notice because he is trying to avoid giving protesters time to organize against his visit.
A president that ducks from conflict is not a president that can be trusted to lead in a crisis. If Trump wants to avoid protesters, he should try being a leader a leader inspires applause instead of protest.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/03/trump-unpopular-sneak-britain-hide-protesters.html
Trump Blows A Gasket After Calls To Remove Him From Office Via the 25th Amendment Go Viral
White House sources say that Donald Trump is furious after calls to remove him from office via the 25 Amendment started trending on Twitter.
As Think Progress correctly noted, the 25th Amendment chatter is a fantasy. This cabinet is never going to turn on Trump, and even if Congress could activate the 25th Amendment via legislation or a commission, the Executive Branch of the government (Trump and/or Pence) could veto it.
However, the thought that Trump is furious and being driven crazy by the 25th Amendment talk is reward enough. Reality won’t be denied. A majority of this country did not vote for Trump and want him removed from office ASAP.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/03/trump-blows-gasket-calls-remove-office-25th-amendment-viral.html
“Forty-three per cent of respondents felt Tony Abbott should resign from parliament, ”
I wonder how many of those are ALP members.
William’s article in Crikey yesterday was good, he talked about ‘herding’, and the differences in methods the various pollsters use: robocalls, panels, phone polling and (if Roy Morgan is still going) face to face.
PhoenixRED
Is the Orange one so naive that he thinks that 24 hours is enough to avoid protesters? He must think that social media in Britain still runs on steam engines!
GOPer who voted for impeachment in 1998: ‘This is much more serious than anything we accused Bill Clinton of’
Former Rep. Bob Inglis (R-SC) voted for the impeachment of President Bill Clinton in 1998 but he said on Monday that President Donald Trump’s behavior is “much more serious.”
There are issues around the world that require American leadership,” Inglis said at the time. “The leader of the free world needs moral authority. And we’ve got a president who is sorely lacking in that regard.”
Inglis conceded that the Russia investigation could uncover impeachable offenses, but he also worried about “these other poor decisions on things like withdrawing the United States from the Paris Accord on Climate Change [and] basically taking us to the sidelines, sniveling if you will, with Syria over there on the sidelines.”
“When we should be leading the world to a solution,” he lamented.
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/goper-who-voted-for-impeachment-in-1998-this-is-much-more-serious-than-anything-we-accused-bill-clinton-of/
Yesterday we saw Turnbull allies Sinodinos, Morrison, Cormann and Cash (She’d probably be a ‘nutter club’ but only men qualify to be a member) {grin} all out to say what great things were being done by the government and that Abbott should shut up.
I wonder if we’ll see more of Turnbull’s people today doing the same?
It’s interesting the people you don’t see. Hunt, for example, has almost been invisible for months other than his little ‘trip’ with the Vic Supreme Ct while prosecuting his vendetta against Daniel Andrews.
Coalition’s $840 million interns plan illegal: lawyers
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/coalitions-840-million-interns-plan-illegal-lawyers-20160511-gosd1e.html
The Constant White House Enabling of Trump’s Perverse and Pervasive Narcissism
It’s no secret by now that Trump is out of his depth, unable to comprehend the vast federal bureaucracy he’s supposed to command, incapable of absorbing the knowledge necessary to inform critical decisions about commanding it, and frankly, uninterested in anything that isn’t directly related to whichever immediate concern has hijacked his limited attention span at any given hour of the day.
But now we are seeing how that psyche is choking off the entire White House from the world, not just so Trump can maintain control over the government, but so no inconvenient truths can infiltrate his fortress and encroach on his reality.
His spokespeople lost the presumption of truthfulness months ago. But now they’ve progressed from trafficking in lies and so-called “alternative facts” to simply being Donald Trump’s communications id
http://www.alternet.org/right-wing/view-left-trump-deteriorates-reality-encroaches-his-fragile-psyche
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Not much in this lot to be happy about.
Peter Hartcher writes that the internet has been lost to the bad guys. The attempt to recover it has only just begun. It won’t be easy. Trumpeted as a cornucopia of liberty and prosperity, it has evolved into a Pandora’s box of mischief and malice.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-web-belongs-to-the-bad-guys-and-getting-it-back-wont-be-easy-20170703-gx3cl6.html
And to illustrate this a darknet trader is illegally selling the Medicare patient details of any Australian on request by “exploiting a vulnerability” in a government system, raising concerns that a health agency may be seriously compromised. An investigation by Guardian Australia can reveal that a dark net vendor on a popular auction site for illegal products claims to have access to any Australian’s Medicare card details and can supply them on request.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/04/the-medicare-machine-patient-details-of-any-australian-for-sale-on-darknet
Shaun Carney says that with a Coalition government that makes up too much policy as it goes and when a party isn’t strong on policy, personality disputes take over. The raw calculus is Turnbull knocked off Abbott by promising to be a winner in the polls. He isn’t. Until he is, this will continue. Google.
/news/opinion/shaun-carney-liberal-party-bitter-divisions-mean-less-effort-on-developing-policy/news-story/108d97753e3babce9816e33cdb101e2d
In a contribution well worth reading Norm Abjorensen warns about the fallacy of small government and “efficiency”. He says that without robust government nothing stands between citizens and a rapacious corporate sector.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/the-fallacy-of-efficient-small-government-lives-on-despite-reagan-and-thatchers-lessons-20170630-gx2f5x.html
Private companies are gaining unprecedented access to students’ personal and academic data, drafting NAPLAN questions and producing teaching and learning materials, prompting fears that businesses are dictating the focus of public education policy.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/private-companies-accessing-student-data-fuels-commercialisation-fears-20170629-gx1ekv.html
In the wake of the ATO scandal Professor Richard Mulgan ponders over the extent of nepotism that exists within the Australian Public Service and adds that conflicts of interests are being ineffectively monitored.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/ato-fraud-scandal-just-how-big-is-the-public-services-nepotism-problem-20170630-gx1uaq.html
A Senate committee heard yesterday that it would be dangerous for the government to replace the PRRT despite the fact that we are virtually giving way our natural resources.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/petroleum-tax-warning-of-significant-damage-to-australian-economy-if-prrt-is-replaced-20170703-gx3g6k.html
The serious tensions in the Middle East are by no means solely squared at Iran.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/qatar-crisis-iran-is-not-the-only-catalyst-of-the-middle-easts-turmoil-20170630-gx2gn8.html
If Trump tries a sneak visit to the UK he’ll find out how much despised he is.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/03/trump-sneak-visit-britain-unwelcome-presidency-tarnished
Section 3 . . .
Ahead of the RBA’s monthly deliberations household debt has hit a record High. Google.
/news/economy/record-debt-burden-raises-stakes-ahead-of-rba-meeting-20170703-gx3nra
Professor of Bioethics Peter Singer writes that assisted dying is an option we all should have. Google.
/news/opinion/assisted-dying-is-an-option-we-should-all-have/news-story/f0e5797cb10cca968791ec27c799e2d1
An airport road to nowhere?
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/westconnex-connection-to-sydney-airport-remains-without-plans-or-funding-20170703-gx3p6i.html
Meanwhile legal claims on WestConnex mount up spectacularly.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/westconnex-contractors-make-1b-in-legal-claims-document-20170703-gx3frn.html
In a ninety minutes speech Macron has laid it all out for France.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/03/emmanuel-macron-to-set-out-his-vision-for-french-renaissance
The tax office has potentially opened the floodgates for family investment companies across the country to claim back hundreds of millions of dollars in company tax, after issuing a landmark ruling that signals a wave of future ¬refunds. The likely refunds would ¬extend tax cuts implemented for active trading companies earning up to $25 million in income to passive family investment vehicles that are designed to warehouse, or retain, family wealth. Just what we need – a further widening of the inequality gap! Google.
/national-affairs/treasury/ato-signals-tax-windfall-for-wealthy/news-story/8f5ee654e2c2bcdd9266ef2d611419f4
This financial year’s inequality is epitomised by tax cuts and pay increases for the few alongside penalty rate cuts and more austerity for the many, writes John Passant.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/tax-cuts-for-the-wealthy-wage-cuts-for-the-poor-happy-new-financial-year,10461
Meanwhile millions of dollars have been rorted from a federal government scheme introduced to encourage Australian companies to invest in research and development, including claims from bankrupts, a property spruiker and a disgraced businessman.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/investigations/millions-rorted-from-government-rd-scheme-20170703-gx3b79.html
Michael West turns his attention to the tax avoiding antics of big drug company Abbvie (formerly Abbott).
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/breaking-bad-the-tax-antics-of-drug-giant-abbvie/
Section 4 . . . with Cartoon Corner Part 1
Julia Gillard has been talking about mental health issues for most of her life and now, in her new role as Chair of Beyondblue, she’s looking to continue that by tackling Australia’s high suicide rates with messages of resilience.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2017/07/03/julia-gillard-will-tackle-suicide-as-new-beyondblue-chairperson_a_23013271/?utm_hp_ref=au-homepage
Jane Caro reckons the narcissists Trump and Putin have problems when it comes to women’s bodies. And so does much of the population.
http://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/news-and-views/opinion/disgust-at-female-bodies-is-alive-and-well-just-ask-trump-putin-and-larissa-waters-20170702-gx36f8.html
The Pope’s battle to ¬reform the Catholic Church risks a serious setback as allegations emerge that his choice for leader of the Vatican’s doctrinal watchdog failed to report a serial sex abuser, allowing the defrocked priest to commit new crimes. What a shambles! Google.
/news/world/the-times/archbishop-luis-ladaria-ferrer-accused-of-abuse-coverup/news-story/01256543ea0ff399e40e02f8d7e36c9f
Toby Crockford looks at the effects of the first weekend of reduced penalty rates. It’s not pretty.
http://www.smh.com.au/queensland/i-pretty-much-cant-put-food-on-the-table-first-weekend-of-penalty-rate-cuts-hits-queensland-20170702-gx31fx.html
Perusing the blog suggests that dick disease may have struck at the very top of Australian Border Force.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australian-border-force-boss-roman-quaedvlieg-on-leave-amid-investigation-20170703-gx3m49.html
Shares in Aveo slump further after the ACCC announces it will be examining the company. Goog!
http://www.smh.com.au/business/aveo-shares-slump-after-accc-announces-investigation-20170703-gx3q8j.html
Cathy Wilcox and “fake news”.
At the boxing with Ron Tandberg.
Broelman’s also at the boxing.
Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner Part 2
Matt Golding on John Roskam’s outburst.
Two more form Golding.
ROY Taylor with some advice for Turnbull.
A really telling effort from Mark Knight on The Greens.
Alan Moir and the original boat people.
David Rowe goes low on Trump. As he should!
Pat Clement also has a good snipe at Trump.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/784df61ba9e605991351298f5384c6a2
Mark Knight contrasts the pugilistic talents of certain sporting codes.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/645d0f9b6a716a411637f58e0afcc133?width=1024
First Dog on the Moon explains Abbott’s new manifesto.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jul/03/first-dog-on-the-moon-decodes-tony-abbotts-completely-unwanted-policy-manifesto
lizzie @ #10 Tuesday, July 4, 2017 at 6:33 am
Agreed. For Donnie the Left would mobilise very, very quickly.
grimace @ #21 Tuesday, July 4, 2017 at 7:48 am
Remember how quickly the people of Melbourne got organised to protest Border Farce on the streets? Nothing compared to how quickly Brits will get organised.
Your Tuesday morning Moir fix:
Thanks BK
The article by Dr Norman Abjorensen about the need for effective government, and the constant conservative pressure to white-ant it, was very worth reading as you suggested.
Question.
Is domestic solar plus battery storage being sabotaged by elements within government?
Standards Australia – with its somewhat diffuse and unaccountable board – has come up with a regulation that, if enacted, would kill battery storage, at least with lithium ion batteries such as Powerwall 2.
Under these draft regulations it will continue to be OK to store unlimited gas bottles, or plastic containers full of petrol, in your garage, but NOT a properly designed and managed lithium ion battery pack.
This will have a massive effect on energy generation, and in turn energy prices, and effectively give the gentailer incumbents a new lease of life.
Some suspect certain Queensland politicians may have a hand in this.
http://reneweconomy.com.au/the-new-standard-that-could-kill-the-home-battery-storage-market-93609/
Interesting that SA LNP blocking bank Levy in SA, but Fed LNP plays one:
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/south-australian-liberals-to-decide-on-controversial-370m-bank-levy-outlined-in-the-2017-state-budget/news-story/00dea7ae122bf9c606b097ad185d00d9
Garnaut points out the irrelevance of Finkel’s clean energy target. We are going to get there anyway simply by expansion of renewables plus storage. How about a little ambition?
http://reneweconomy.com.au/garnaut-cet-may-be-useless-without-higher-emission-targets-48303/
Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
I have been puzzling over why polls keep recording responses which favour a plebiscite on SSM over a parliamentary vote, and I can only come to the conclusion that, despite people realising that a plebiscite would unleash the dogs of Christian war against teh gays, that respondents also know that a parliamentary vote now would be effectively useless at bringing SSM to Australia. So vote for the method that might shame the politicians into approving it in parliament, if the public response is overwhelmingly in favour.
Queensland farmers join the opposition to the Adani mine on the basis that the mine will steal huge amounts of water from them.
http://www.watoday.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/john-roskam-blasts-lazy-selfindulgent-liberal-party-facing-existential-crisis-20170630-gx280r.html
“John Roskam, who on Tuesday hosted Tony Abbott for a speech in which he directly challenged Malcolm Turnbull’s policy agenda, on Friday blasted both men for failing to deliver philosophical direction to the party, and took aim at “so-called conservatives” Peter Dutton and Mathias Cormann.”
c@tmomma @ #28 Tuesday, July 4, 2017 at 8:43 am
Yeah the Adani mine is pathetic, why give a mine unlimited water license but not to the agriculture/farming sector?
Food = Life right?
c@tmomma @ #28 Tuesday, July 4, 2017 at 8:43 am
@#$%ing emojis.
I’m buggered if I know the real reason behind this. The best reason I can think of is that people are unaware that the plebiscite is non-binding and a vote in parliament is still necessary to make it pass.
So no Newspoll this week? Are they stringing them out to give Turnbull breathing space? 🙂
http://www.illawarramercury.com.au/story/4765009/terminally-ill-man-has-centrelink-payments-cut-for-interview-no-show/?cs=7
My brother been through “Max Solutions”.
They are a lazy provider who does nothing for him that the time he was there, but they are quick to take tax payers money.
DanG,
I’m buggered if I know the real reason behind this. The best reason I can think of is that people are unaware that the plebiscite is non-binding and a vote in parliament is still necessary to make it pass.
Sorry about the emojis. 😉
Now, afa what people know or don’t know about the parliamentary vote after the plebiscite, it’s an unknown quantity but it may be a good question for Essential to pose next time they ask the SSM question in order to tease it out a bit more.
[C@Tmomma
Tuesday, July 4, 2017 at 8:51 am
So no Newspoll this week? Are they stringing them out to give Turnbull breathing space? ]
With Essential reporting every week, perhaps we should start counting how many consecutive Essential polls have the government behind.
Morning all
Thanks BK, PhoenixR and ors for today’s reports.
I happened to see Ms M Cash on the evening news telling all and sundry how wonderful the internship program was and that Labor and the Unions should support instead of being ?? Didn’t hear the rest. Couldn’t bear to listen for another moment!!! Grrrrr
As per one of BK’s links. This is spot on! Trump is a narcissistic crook, and despite some saying he is cray cray and doesn’t know what he is doing. He most definitely does know what he wants. He has been demonising the media for months and months. This is the same man who is in fact a media whore. All publicity is good publicity. He really is a clear and present danger
Throughout his regime, vacancy signs hang on key posts in the departments of Defense, Social Security and Veterans Affairs; the White House office of science and technology policy and more. As of 2 June, barely 3% of the positions that require Senate approval have been confirmed simply because he hasn’t bothered to nominate anyone.
But Trump does not want a governing apparatus in place. He wants a regime. As America celebrates its independence, we have to ask is that what we want.
Vic,
Yeah Labor and the Unions should support the effective dismantling of the Minimum Wage and Award Rates of Pay by stealth, by the Tories. Not!!!
If there’s a way of rorting a scheme, someone will find it.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/investigations/millions-rorted-from-government-rd-scheme-20170703-gx3b79.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn%3Atwi-13omn1677-edtrl-other%3Annn-17%2F02%2F2014-edtrs_socialshare-all-nnn-nnn-vars-o%26sa%3DD%26usg%3DALhdy28zsr6qiq
Oops I meant to puts brackets around the passage from article.
And also meant to add that all publicity is good publicity up and until he and his cronies are being investigated and reported on. Now he has to put all his effort into discrediting the fake news
C@t
Yep. Ms Cash is just one of many LNP MPs who makes my blood boil!!!
From previous thread.
ctar1 @ #741 Tuesday, July 4, 2017 at 1:13 am
Possibly a few rare exceptions there.
But the problem is to a large extent the system. An individual can not do much about that.
Fixed in the Grauniad – Labor 36%:
The polls showed Labor widened its lead over the Coalition 53% to 47% on a two-party-preferred basis, up from 52% to 48% recorded for the past four weeks. The primary votes remained largely unchanged, with Labor sitting on 36%, Liberals on 35%, the National party on 3%, the Greens on 11%, Nick Xenophon on 3% and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation on 7%.
The ACT Liberals, currently controlled by the hard right, are attacking the Territory government for allowing union representatives to advise school students on their rights at work.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/canberra-liberals-probe-union-recruitment-in-school-20170630-gx1wko.html
Crooks to the right of us, crooks to the left of us.
All enabled by a crooked government.
Nationals Senator John Williams —
‘
WILLIAMS: Tony Abbott is well aware of the Coalition agreement as well. We had the same agreement with him when Warren Truss signed it with him. That’s the point.
BENSON: So would it in fact smash the Government were Malcolm Turnbull to change it?
WILLIAMS: Well, if there is a change policy on the same-sex marriage, then it would be breaching the Coalition agreement. What would happen then? Well, I don’t know for sure.
BENSON: But could it be serious?
WILLIAMS: Well we have got a signed agreement. I thought any signed agreement would be an agreement in confidence and good faith. To breach that would be very serious to me but that’s only my opinion.’
Love this —
‘WILLIAMS: Of course it can recover. Look, the problem we have got because of these in house arguments is that the spotlight has turned on the Government. There is no spotlight – the media don’t even talk about the Labor Party. They are not evening highlighting what policy that Bill Shorten wants to take to the next election. And how he is going to bring in his Emission Trading Scheme/Carbon Tax etc etc etc. So the focus in the media is all on the Government hence the Labor Party are getting a free ride.’
Um, the government IS meant to be the focus. The Opposition’s views on anything should be irrelevant.
This education Rort is still going, but no body posted I think:
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2017/06/andrew-robb-exposed-vet-rort/
This is an excellent summation of the Trump presidency
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/07/03/opinion/trump-hijacked-american-presidency.html?_r=0&referer=https://t.co/CStuWX98yC