BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

A detailed quarterly breakdown of federal voting intention at state level records Labor sagging in Victoria, but still on course for an election-winning swing in Queensland.

First up, please note that we have had the rare treat overnight of a state poll from South Australia, which you can read all about here.

Now to BludgerTrack, and the in-depth look at state-level federal voting intention trends that I lay on at the end of each quarter. First up, the vanilla weekly version of BludgerTrack, which is displayed at the bottom of the post, is inclusive only of the usual result from Essential Research. ReachTEL will have to wait until next week, because I don’t yet have all the data I need from it, and the new fortnightly YouGov/Fifty Acres poll won’t make the cut until I have more than one data point to work with. The only change worth noting on the headline numbers is that some of the edge has come off the recent spike to One Nation, although the overall pattern of recovery from a nadir around May is still evident. The Coalition makes a net gain of one on the seat projection, being up one in Victoria and Western Australia. Nothing new this week for leadership ratings.

There has been a very slight trend back to the Coalition over the past three months, but overall the impression has been of consistency on every measure, whether relating to voting intention or leadership. But as illustrated by the detailed quarterly breakdowns, which draw on this week’s breakdowns from Newspoll together with unpublished numbers from Essential, there has been quite a bit going on beneath this deceptively calm surface. Since the last such update three months ago, Labor has gone down 0.6% on two-party preferred, but up four on the seat projection – testament to the sensitivity of Queensland, where Labor’s 0.8% gain has translated into five seats.

It’s in the two biggest states that the Coalition’s modest improvement has been concentrated, particularly in Victoria, where Labor is down 2.7%. This raises the possibility that the heavy weather encountered by Daniel Andrews’ government is causing the party damage federally, which is going unnoticed due to Labor’s strong standing in the state in absolute terms (the swing since the last election is still bigger than New South Wales, off an already stronger base, the state’s limited strategic importance (while more than three times bigger than Queensland’s, the change on the previous quarter has only shifted the seat projection by one) and Labor’s sustained strength elsewhere. South Australia joins Queensland as the other state where Labor has gained ground, and they have tapered off only a little in Western Australia after what was probably an unsustainable peak at the time of the state election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

747 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

  1. Bemused
    Monday, July 3, 2017 at 10:50 pm
    briefly @ #700 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 10:48 pm

    People behave badly. They cheat, deceive, manipulate, blackmail, threaten, falsify, conceal, perjure, steal, betray, coerce, trick, pinch, dupe, fake, lure, snare and impose…and often that’s just in the morning.

    Some even join the Liberal Party!

    That is reserved for graduate offenders and after hours.

  2. “What do I do as a manager?”
    Ask HR?
    I doubt you are allowed to do anything but big workplaces usually have a policy.
    Doctors get struck off for having a relationship with patients, suspended if it’s a junior doctor but it’s okay if it’s a nurse, physio etc. We just know those rules but it might not even be written down (the patient one certainly is).

  3. Confessions..
    When did JG do this?
    She happily presided over a smear campaign against Rudd in which terms like “psychopath” and “grandiose narcisist” were bandied around by people who clearly had no qualification to be offering these diagnoses.

    Gillard herself offered a pop psychology analysis of what she perceived as Rudd’s fragility in relation to criticism. ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngF01sB5j-U

    As to the rest, I notice you ignore entirely the point about the contrast between her current day enlightenment over the stigma suffered by the LGBTI community and her earlier wretchedly cynical opposition to SSM.

  4. Dio,
    As I remember it, a number of politicians have suffered public opprobrium for having had an affair that was found out. There’s the classic Bob-Hazel-Blanche matter, and Ross Cameron lost his pre-selection over having an extra-marital affair. And Tony Bourke, latterly, so it goes on everywhere, I guess is the point. Does it reflect on their honesty? I think it does to a degree. Otherwise why would we all get so upset about it when it comes to public attention?

    The standard of, did it involve an unfair advantage being given to the person in the relationship having the affair with the powerful person? Well, just to end up with that person, who is powerful, is advantage enough for some people.

    And, yes, it is only one thing, of a myriad number, which can be said to be indicative of poor character. However, it is up there, imho, with the worst of them. Because, what are marriage vows worth then if they can be so easily traduced in the breach?

  5. Dio:

    HR are invariably pariahs of procedure and process, neither of which are conducive to responsive outcomes for the individual. Maybe HR departments work in large organisations, but in small companies they can be more hindrance than help.

  6. She happily presided over a smear campaign against Rudd in which terms like “psychopath” and “grandiose narcisist” were bandied around by people who clearly had no qualification to be offering these diagnoses.

    Rubbish. Rudd dug himself under that bridge with his whiteanting behaviour.

    Gillard herself offered a pop psychology analysis of what she perceived as Rudd’s fragility in relation to criticism.

    Her analysis was entirely born out by Rudd’s own explicit behaviour. Frankly I think Gillard got it spot on when it comes to Rudd’s character.

    As to her actions in govt wrt to SSM she never struck me as being in favour of banning it. I think you;re trying to tie her personally to a stance she never agreed with personally but took for the sake of political expediency. And yeah, it was you who told us you felt a quiver of excitement (or whatever) at MT taking over the leadership of the Libs. How do you feel now after all that’s gone down?

  7. taylormade @ #695 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 10:38 pm

    Grimace
    You should go and check the timber mill Daniel Andrews just bought for 50 million for us Victorians.

    $50m? Pfft, loose change compared to the corporate welfare offered to a certain other high profile organisation operating in Gippsland and Mornington Peninsula.

  8. Alias,
    You are simply full of bulldust when it comes to Julia Gillard’s position wrt Same Sex Marriage. I should know. I am approximately the same age as FPMJG and from the generation where living together with your partner, as opposed to marrying them, became a thing that was practised widely for the first time. She, and I, could barely see the point in marriage. Rationally, what’s the difference between living together, and being married? None. So she couldn’t support Marriage for Same Sex-attracted couples.

    Now you can spitefully go off like a firecracker all you like against Julia Gillard. It just says more about your lack of understanding of our generation, and your contemptuous agenda, than it says anything about Julia Gillard.

    Also, she, and I, have softened our positions latterly. To the point now that I think we are both of the opinion, I know I am, that if Same Sex-attracted couples want to get married, then let ’em! We don’t want to get married, but if they do, why stand in the way of that?

    Now, could you kindly just fade away and radiate? 🙂

  9. confessions @ #708 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 10:58 pm

    Dio:
    HR are invariably pariahs of procedure and process, neither of which are conducive to responsive outcomes for the individual. Maybe HR departments work in large organisations, but in small companies they can be more hindrance than help.

    My experience with them in large corporations is that they protect the interests of the organisation first and foremost, which are generally the interests of the more senior person in the dispute.

    The reason that you can name off the top of your head where the more senior person has got it in the neck over sexual dalliances is that they are exceptional – the exception rather than the rule.

  10. Oh.. and on the point of Turnbull, I’ve said here again and again that I was enormously pleased to see Australia relieved of the embarrassment of the Abbott prime ministership. Turnbull has proved far less effective than I had imagined. I’ve said that often and am happy to acknowledge that I overestimated his powers.

  11. Alias

    ‘She happily presided over a smear campaign against Rudd in which terms like “psychopath” and “grandiose narcisist” were bandied around by people who clearly had no qualification to be offering these diagnoses.’

    Bollocks she did.

    ‘Gillard herself offered a pop psychology analysis of what she perceived as Rudd’s fragility in relation to criticism.’

    And apparently she’s right – well, at least you’ve got some fragility dealing with criticism of Rudd….

    It’s a very long stretch from that to going around saying the man’s a loony.

    ‘As to the rest, I notice you ignore entirely the point about the contrast between her current day enlightenment over the stigma suffered by the LGBTI community and her earlier wretchedly cynical opposition to SSM.’

    Sigh. She doesn’t believe in marriage.

    People who don’t believe in religion find it difficult to understand why people get upset about slurs on religion. And people who don’t believe in marriage don’t understand why people who do find it important.

    We all have our empathetic blindspots.

  12. bemused @ #696 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 10:42 pm

    grimace @ #690 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 10:24 pm

    bemused @ #686 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 10:21 pm

    grimace @ #685 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 10:19 pm

    bemused @ #682 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 10:09 pm

    grimace @ #681 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 10:07 pm

    bemused @ #679 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 10:04 pm

    davidwh @ #668 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 9:47 pm

    None of the blokes I have been friends with and worked with talk about affairs, penis size or participate in signing with urine. We all must be A-typical.

    I have never experienced it either, although there was a married woman at a place I once worked that was into most of those things with a vengeance.

    I’m in Victoria at the moment with work, come pay me a visit and you can enjoy talk about affairs, penis size and sexual deviance all day.

    Pass on that, but I would be up for a beer.

    I’m too far east of Melbourne for a trip in, I’m back in Melbourne on Friday morning.

    How far east? I am based in the eastern suburbs.
    Lizzie is further east, maybe she is up for a beer?

    Emoji’d again!!
    I’m in Sale, the guys here start and finish pretty early, so I’m flexible for early evening.

    Way too far east for any of the Melbourne based people.
    Were you there for their record low temperature? -6.9deg IIRC.

    No I got here late this afternoon. I lived here for 2 years as well, so am aware of how cold it can get.

  13. To Zoomster and C@tmomma…
    It is blindingly obvious that even if a politician personally doesn’t regard marriage as an important or even worthwhile institution that that is absolutely no excuse whatsoever for opposing SSM laws for those many people who at the time she was PM were clamouring for the right to marry.

    It is frankly beneath both your intelligence to fail to grasp this simple distinction.

  14. Alias, stop it!
    She’s almost in full flight now, going bonkers.

    And, Bemused, could you please stop making scurrilous references, based upon zero to no evidence at all, wrt Confessions mental state? It says more about you than it does about her.

  15. ..and Alias, you’re also setting up an impossible standard, whereby people have to know ten years or more in advance what future careers they might have so that they can avoid doing or saying anything that somebody somewhere might then interpret as being hypocritical.

    You also make no allowance for personal growth. As Chair of beyondblue, Gillard may well have learnt things she didn’t previously know about mental illness. Not all of us are lucky enough to be born with innate knowledge about every subject under the sun; most of us bumble around, learning as we go, making mistakes and often finding ourselves looking back at things we said or did in the past – often out of pure ignorance – which we regret now.

    I’m so relieved that you – and apparently bemused – are such higher order human beings that that’s never happened to you.

    Why, you might almost be a Green, you’re so pure of sin.

  16. Alias,
    I would have thought that such rank revisionism, to suit your Anti Julia Gillard agenda, was beneath YOUR intelligence. Obviously, I was mistaken.

    Plus, I pointed out to you that she has changed her mind. Heaven forfend that someone should do that, eh?

  17. ‘It is frankly beneath both your intelligence to fail to grasp this simple distinction.’

    And aren’t you now being hypocritical yourself? Are you a clinical psychologist, that you can determine people’s IQ levels from a few lines on a blog? Don’t you think it’s a bit dangerous for you to go around making diagnoses of people’s intellectual prowess without qualifications?

  18. c@tmomma @ #720 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 11:12 pm

    Alias, stop it!
    She’s almost in full flight now, going bonkers.

    And, Bemused, could you please stop making scurrilous references, based upon zero to no evidence at all, wrt Confessions mental state? It says more about you than it does about her.

    WTF???
    I referred to a behaviour.

  19. Alias

    You really should take bemused to task – here he is, making psychological assessments of posters, and he definitely doesn’t have the qualifications to do that.

  20. alias
    Go tie a knot in it.
    PMJG did everything to make same-sex couples equal under the law, not including marriage. She legislated everything possible that she could to ensure equal treatment under the law. She did not have a magic wand to deliver SSM, or didn’t you notice the vilification and obstruction she had to deal with 23 hours a day, 24/7/56?
    Stop fkn whining.
    No-one has got SSM through, just like PMJG couldn’t. So go on and weep about how Rudd, Turnbull and Di Natale couldn’t get it up when they had the chance to have a go.
    I support SSM but I do not expect the whole ALP to die in a ditch poltically over it.
    There are a lot more desperate causes that the ALP should fight to the death over before SSM, Medicare and Gonski being just two of them.

  21. If you want to offer a coherent response to my comment I’ll happily respond.

    I’ve given you a coherent response. If you can’t respond in kind that isn’t my problem.

  22. It is blindingly obvious that even if a politician personally doesn’t regard marriage as an important or even worthwhile institution that that is absolutely no excuse whatsoever for opposing SSM laws for those many people

    And people said the same thing about Rudd back in the day. Were you one of those who criticised him for taking an anti-marriage equality stance, or is your opposition firmly entrenched in the anti-woman position instead, thereby making you a honking great hypocrite?

  23. In regards to EAP programs, my HR team is using an external provider (and has been for the past 13 years) to offer its services to our 1,000+ employees with great success. We all have received fantastic feedback from many employees and their family members (it available to employees and their families). The service is totally confidential and available 24/7.

  24. Bemused
    Was that you taking my name in vain earlier?
    I do not say FPMJG can or cannot do things because she is female.

    I say she was a target for misogyny because she was the first female PM, who happened to be Labor, as well as an atheist, unmarried in a relationship and childless and from South Australia instead of Qld. She also replaced a male PM in ways which have always been acceptable when done by a man. (Somehow it is verboten for a female to do anything like replacing a man for any reason.)
    Your opinion, driven by your fondness for Kevin Rudd, is different.

    But I am calling misogyny when and where I see it and it is lit up by neon lights in the case of PMJG. None of your pontificating and attempt at reframing history will change that.
    Nor is using too cute by half comments about me going to do anything other than prove my point. (Ditto for Confessions and others)

    It is almost impossible to have a serious discussion about the Gillard government because you make it too uncomfortable to discuss anything about it here.
    I have other places in which I can express those opinions without the inevitable happening, and so I do.

  25. Same Sex Marriage is going to have to do the time and hard yards to get through. The Disability sector took fifty years to get the NDIS. The only reason they did is because Bill Shorten was made Secretary for Disability (or whatever it was called) and used his considerable talent and passion to get stuff done, and got us the NDIS. I even know the grassroots disability community meeting with Bill where the idea was raised.

    Yes, it is time for SSM, way past time, but until the policy of a free vote in the Labor Party and toe the line in the Coalitionc is changed, no-one can deliver SSM.

    When, in 2020, JG’s policy changes which were passed by the National Conference, that makes a ‘Yes Vote’ compulsory, there is a major chance or almost a certainty it will be passed. So get to work electing an ALP government at the next Federal election if you want SSM.

  26. Alias,

    I am reminded of the very first episode of Q+A which featured none other than the newly elected Kevin Rudd. Not long after talking about how he was led by evidence based policy he was asked about gay marriage. I don’t remember precisely what he said but essentially he squibbed it. If I had been in the audience I would have asked him if this were to do with evidence based policy, and was there evidence that the Christian Lobby would harm Labor if they did the right thing.

  27. LATE TO THE DISCUSSION
    re the The Q article when Cat says why carn’t they keep in their pants till they get home to misses, who’s to say the misses is up for it.
    ms.20+ might be a 50 shades of grey type girl who is up for all sorts of activity ,where as I carn’t see q going home to maybe cuff and whip the misses of his children.
    he’s getting something for her he’s not getting at home

  28. @ C@Tmomma
    I really don’t think many voters actually care that much about SSM. They think in theory it should be a thing, when asked, but are they really that fussed that it isn’t, or their daily lives disturbed. And the implications of a plebiscite escape them – the cost, the hate unleashed, and the risk of a ‘Brexit outcome’, although we at least have compulsory voting. It is exactly as the Cons with or without Turnbull want it. Keep it in the too hard can, and keep kicking it down the road.

    I am in a same sex relationship of three decades*, and not one family member, otherwise very loving and supportive and who treat ‘us’ no differently than if we were the other way around, truly, but not one has voluntarily spoken of SSM marriage support, nor would I believe change their vote on it. If asked , polled, oh yes, they’d say of course they support it.

    PTMD is right. It’s a hard and long fight, as the Irish experience showed.

    It should be a Labor Govt that gets it up; I want it to be a Labor Govt that gets it up, and I’m here to wait it out. We fought, and got bashed and arrested, for recognition of existence. We are married in the eyes of whomever it matters. We live a contented peaceful existence. Discrimination exists, often subtle, but they are the lesser. Whatever other status or benefits state recognised marriage would bring can wait afaiac.

    *which of course puts me in an older generation, and I can’t speak for the younger ones, they have a different prism, and all power to them.

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