First up, please note that we have had the rare treat overnight of a state poll from South Australia, which you can read all about here.
Now to BludgerTrack, and the in-depth look at state-level federal voting intention trends that I lay on at the end of each quarter. First up, the vanilla weekly version of BludgerTrack, which is displayed at the bottom of the post, is inclusive only of the usual result from Essential Research. ReachTEL will have to wait until next week, because I don’t yet have all the data I need from it, and the new fortnightly YouGov/Fifty Acres poll won’t make the cut until I have more than one data point to work with. The only change worth noting on the headline numbers is that some of the edge has come off the recent spike to One Nation, although the overall pattern of recovery from a nadir around May is still evident. The Coalition makes a net gain of one on the seat projection, being up one in Victoria and Western Australia. Nothing new this week for leadership ratings.
There has been a very slight trend back to the Coalition over the past three months, but overall the impression has been of consistency on every measure, whether relating to voting intention or leadership. But as illustrated by the detailed quarterly breakdowns, which draw on this week’s breakdowns from Newspoll together with unpublished numbers from Essential, there has been quite a bit going on beneath this deceptively calm surface. Since the last such update three months ago, Labor has gone down 0.6% on two-party preferred, but up four on the seat projection – testament to the sensitivity of Queensland, where Labor’s 0.8% gain has translated into five seats.
It’s in the two biggest states that the Coalition’s modest improvement has been concentrated, particularly in Victoria, where Labor is down 2.7%. This raises the possibility that the heavy weather encountered by Daniel Andrews’ government is causing the party damage federally, which is going unnoticed due to Labor’s strong standing in the state in absolute terms (the swing since the last election is still bigger than New South Wales, off an already stronger base, the state’s limited strategic importance (while more than three times bigger than Queensland’s, the change on the previous quarter has only shifted the seat projection by one) and Labor’s sustained strength elsewhere. South Australia joins Queensland as the other state where Labor has gained ground, and they have tapered off only a little in Western Australia after what was probably an unsustainable peak at the time of the state election.
Dio
No, It was the guy who was responsible for Border Force operations in Victoria. Supt. Smith, from memory. Not Quaedvlieg himself.
The guy ‘in-charge’ in Victoria ‘disappeared’ fairly quickly after he was stupid enough to say that in front of the press.
I thought that Piers had been embalmed in readiness for an extended afterlife in Hades… along with some Scared Ibis…
BK:
I have to admit that I’m enjoying the unhingement from the rightwing reactionaries of late.
Excellent news that ACCC is investigating. Not holding my breath but wouldn’t it be good if this investigation led to more stringent compliance placed around the operations of retirement villages? They’ve long been a bone of contention for me in terms of their operational model and how consumers get ripped off.
Bob Katter and Warren Snowdon are Qanda guests tonight and with it being NAIDOC Week Qanda is obviously taking an indigenous theme. The panel seems to be very NT centric, outside of Katter obviously.
I wish that we could move beyond this concept that only northern Aust and the NT have the real indigenous experience therefore only Aboriginal people from those areas can represent the face of indigenous Australia. The fact remains that more indigenous Australians live in metro and regional centres than remote Oz or the NT and it would be nice to hear the urban indigenous experience, not just that which pertains to remote Australia.
So Turnbull’s luck continues, when he is hoping for a ‘pull aside’ (whatever that is), with Trump at the G20, Four Corners is doing an exposé on Trump’s investments in Indonesia.
His timing is superb.
**Isn’t Quaedvlieg the moron…**
He is the one with the pretty hands
That’s why I listen to Price and Bolt most nights Fess. It’s a laugh a minute.
Just finished binge watching Designated Survivor on Netflix.
Not bad. Sort of a cross between The West Wing, Homeland and House Of Cards (US version).
Well worth a watch for fans of political dramas and a much better way of spending your time than listening to the rabid right wing rantings of sad old gits such as Dean, Akkerman, Bolt and Boerwar.
According to News Ltd, Mr Q’s problems are alleged to centre on an inappropriate relationship with a female staffer in her 20’s (he is married). There are allegations she may have gotten a promotion.
Dio – News Ltd are catching up with the rumors that have been around for a few days then.
**There are allegations she may have gotten a promotion.**
He cant get promoted. He already has the head job.
SK – Very naughty.
confessions @ #655 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 8:54 pm
Putting footage of a poverty stricken remote and generally northern Australian Aboriginal community makes for good television (good television is most definately not synonymous with ethical television).
Most Australian’s have see stereotypical urban Aboriginal poverty for real and are desensitied to it, if/when they see it on TV and go “meh”, or worse.
Why can’t married men just keep it in their pants until they get home to the missus!?!
Though I will say that my son helped explain the Quaedvleig phenomenon to me. Apparently, in the game of one-upmanship amongst males, to have an affair proves your ne plus ultra position amongst the peer group.
Sad. Wth has modern social interaction and relationships come to!?!
Of course, Donald Trump fits right in to this new paradigm. The Meninist Movement my son called it.
Ctar1, caught with his fingers in the till?
**Why can’t married men just keep it in their pants…**
Married women never have affairs C@t?
None of the blokes I have been friends with and worked with talk about affairs, penis size or participate in signing with urine. We all must be A-typical.
DWH – x2
I’m going to wait for more information before I consider whatever Quaedvlieg has done.
Watched $ Corners as well tonight as it was about Trump. What a grub that man is! Doing a deal with a corrupt Indonesian remnant from the Suharto era to build one of his god-awful Trump Resort complexes that will likely lead to the extinction of the Spotted Snow Leopard. Just so yet another one of his golf courses can be built there.
Sad. Ineffably sad.
Though it helped crystallise to me why Trump spends every weekend playing golf. He is simply reinforcing his brand as these dirty deals keep being done in the background.
That man is a walking, barely intelligible but talking incessantly, clusterfu*k for this world.
SK – I heard a couple of different stories last week. But I think what Dio said NewsLtd were saying is the right one.
c@tmomma @ #665 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 9:42 pm
I’ve spent my career in very male dominated industries, and cheating on one’s spouse is perfectly accetpable, as is sleeping with one of the few women from the office, if you can manage to pull it off.
On one contract I was working in a regional location and all the managers went to a capital city for work purposes. One night, one of the managers, whose wife worked directly for me, availed himself with the services of a prostitue. I no longer hold that position, though work in the same organisation, and I still have dealings with the manager and his wife. I spent weeks afterwards feeling incredibily guilty every time I saw his wife and to this day I still get a pang of guilt every time I see her.
Personally, I worked out long ago that whatever personality type it took to be able to lie, cheat, steal and get away with it was not my personality type, and accordingly I should refrain from lying, cheating and stealing as I couldn’t handle the guilt and ended up getting caught.
For a breathtaking masterclass in bare-faced hypocrisy, don’t miss Julia Gillard interviewed on Lateline in her new capacity as head of Beyond Blue.
First, Gillard tut-tuts at anyone throwing around insults about a person’s mental health, who is not a mental health professional (this in reference to Donald Trump). Very convenient to say that now .. but what about Gillard’s doing precisely that with regard to Kevin Rudd’s mental health?
Second, she speaks compassionately and knowingly about the mental health issues facing the LGTI communitygiven the stigma imposed by the wider community .. this from the woman who used the most laughingly contorted rationale to try to justify her own stance opposing SSM, driven by that conservative Joe De Bruyn-led union.
How can she expect anyone to take her seriously with this baggage?
SK,
Married women never have affairs C@t?
Of course they do. However, I don’t remember the mums I am friends with engaging in the boasting and notch-scoring competitions the way a lot of men do.
I think it’s also a matter of proportion. What is the ratio of married men to married women engaging in extra-marital hanky panky? Though I will admit my evidence is gained second-hand these days from the younger generation. Also, maybe I was just lucky never to have had to deal with the phenomenon in 30 years of marriage.
Davidwh,
You are a gentleman, it is obvious, cut from genteel cloth. 🙂
Grimace,
Exactly the sort of behaviour that has seen Donald Trump lie and cheat his way to the top. There would be a certain subset of men in absolute awe of the grub.
c@tmomma @ #675 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 9:57 pm
There is absolutely a double standard in our society about sex. It is perfectly acceptable for a man to sleep around, and to sleep with co-workers, generally without repercussions. A woman who openly sleeps around, or openly sleeps with (subordinate) co-workers faces significant social sanctions.
davidwh @ #668 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 9:47 pm
I have never experienced it either, although there was a married woman at a place I once worked that was into most of those things with a vengeance.
alias @ #674 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 9:56 pm
Because she’s a woman. Just ask Confessions or Puffy.
bemused @ #679 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 10:04 pm
I’m in Victoria at the moment with work, come pay me a visit and you can enjoy talk about affairs, penis size and sexual deviance all day.
grimace @ #681 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 10:07 pm
Pass on that, but I would be up for a beer.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/scandal-engulfs-border-force-boss-roman-quaedvlieg-over-allegations-of-inappropriate-relationship-with-staffer/news-story/6c9c1d7d0f12c6a73bb17100a8856440
Scandal engulfs Border Force boss Roman Quaedvlieg over allegations of inappropriate relationship with staffer
Renee Viellaris, Federal Political Editor, The Courier-Mail
in 2 hours
A SCANDAL has engulfed Border Force boss Roman Quaedvlieg over allegations he was involved in an inappropriate relationship with a young staffer.
The high-profile Commissioner, who has been on leave from his $700,000 job since Senate estimates hearings earlier this year, is facing an investigation.
It is understood the claims centre on Mr Quaedvlieg, 52, who is married, being involved in an inappropriate relationship with a staff member in her early 20s.
There was speculation inside the ABF that the woman may have received a promotion.
Acting Immigration and Border Protection Minister Michael Keenan said yesterday: “The ABF Commissioner is on leave. A matter is under consideration by appropriate authorities.
“There will be no further comment until that process is complete.”
I’m not sure there is necessarily anything wrong with Q having an affair in terms of his job, (not his marriage) as long as he didn’t exploit a power relationship, let it affect his work or give preferential treatment.
bemused @ #682 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 10:09 pm
I’m too far east of Melbourne for a trip in, I’m back in Melbourne on Friday morning.
grimace @ #685 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 10:19 pm
How far east? I am based in the eastern suburbs.
Lizzie is further east, maybe she is up for a beer? 😉
diogenes @ #684 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 10:16 pm
I’m firmly of the view that sleeping with someone you work with is a bad idea. It becomes termination worthy when that person is directly or indirectly within your formal sphere of influence. Any c-suite executive sleeping with someone in the company needs to be shown the door.
bemused @ #686 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 10:21 pm
I’m not sure there is necessarily anything wrong with Q having an affair in terms of his job, (not his marriage) as long as he didn’t exploit a power relationship, let it affect his work or give preferential treatment.
Nope, nothing wrong wrt how he performs his job whether or not he is engaging in an affair. However, it goes to personal ethics, which has a tangential reflective nature wrt his job.
bemused @ #686 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 10:21 pm
Emoji’d again!!
I’m in Sale, the guys here start and finish pretty early, so I’m flexible for early evening.
“There is absolutely a double standard in our society about sex.”
Robert Trivers explained why in terms of evolutionary psychology. It’s to do with parental investment.
Grimace
An awful lot of doctors and nurses who work together get married.
Oh gawd when did Gillard ever do this to St Kevin? Poor Kevvy’s mental health was attacked because none of his colleagues backed him in a leadership challenge he failed to call for when Gillard did the adult thing and caused an end to his leadership dysfunction. Yes, poor Kevin!!
Because she was one of the best, most effective PMs we’ve had in recent years. Her govt achieved signing into legislation more of Labor’s policies than her predecessor. That’s why.
C@t
“However, it goes to personal ethics, which has a tangential reflective nature wrt his job.”
That’s possibly true, but if you take it to that extend the public should be told about politicians who have affairs as it reflects on their honesty. There are lots of things that are also indicative of poor character but I’m not convinced of where the boundaries lie. I certainly think if there is any hypocrisy it’s fair game for personal life to be made public but otherwise I don’t think it’s for the best.
I echo Grimace’s concern about having an affair with someone you work with. One of my staff is currently ‘in a relationship’ with a staff member in a different department and while technically their duties don’t touch one another on a day to day basis, I can already see circumstances where they could potentially be compromised going forward. What do I do as a manager?
Grimace
You should go and check the timber mill Daniel Andrews just bought for 50 million for us Victorians.
grimace @ #690 Monday, July 3, 2017 at 10:24 pm
Way too far east for any of the Melbourne based people.
Were you there for their record low temperature? -6.9deg IIRC.
Leroy’s stuff from the Courier Mail above is what I heard on Wed or Thurs from more than one person.
I wonder why they say “early 20’s” in one story and ‘2x’ in another … the rumors I heard all said 23.
She’s off again… LOL
Naughty Alias!
Has Victoria been around at all lately? I admit I’ve been at work today so haven’t bothered with comments over the day, but I haven’t seen her for a while.
People behave badly. They cheat, deceive, manipulate, blackmail, threaten, falsify, conceal, perjure, steal, betray, coerce, trick, pinch, dupe, fake, lure, snare and impose…and often that’s just in the morning.